Restriction of District Heating Systems development towards 4GDH · 2019-04-18 · 4th Generation...

3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District HeatingCopenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017

Restriction ofDistrictHeatingSystemsdevelopmenttowards4GDH

Bioeconomy approach in district heating development

Dr.sc.ing.,Jelena Ziemele,M.sc.EinarsCilinskis

M.sc.ing.AndrisVanags,Dr.hab.sc.ing.,ProfessorDagnija Blumberga

1

Contents

3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017

1. Current Situation in District heating2. Restriction of District Heating Systems development towards 4GDH

2.1 Case study2.2 Scenarios description2.3 Technological, economic and bioeconomyindicators evaluation for different scenarios

3. Results4. Conclusions

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Goalofresearch


Toanalyzepossibledevelopmentscenariosfordistrict heatingcompanytowards 4th generationdistrict heating system bycomparison of technological,economic andbioeconomyindicators.Toevaluate barriersandrestrictionthatlimitlong‐termsustainable development ofDHsystem.

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CurrentSituationinDistrictheatingsystemin Latvia

3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation DistrictHeating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017

73 75 74 81 83 86

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Heat energy share producedin CHPandboilerhouse

Heat share produced by boiler houses, %Heat share produced by CHP, %

3 49

1724 26

37 3843

5564

68

12 1218

2431 32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Renewableenergyshare,%

Renewable energy share in DHsector,%

DHCHP DHboilerhouses TotalofDH

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Casestudy ‐ Fortum Jelgava


Average production data in the last three years (2014 -2016)

Produced heat, GWh per year

238.6

Producedelectricity, MWhper year

104.7

Cooling losses, MWh per year

83950 (35% from produced

heat)Distributionlosses, %

16.7

5

Scenariosdescription

3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation DistrictHeating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017

DH system development scenarios description

Heat consumption decrease by end users (retrofitting of existing

buildings), %0% 10% 30% 50%

Base scenario (Sc1) Sc1 Sc1A Sc1B Sc1CBase scenario plus Bio oil production integration to heat source (Sc2)Additional heat consumption 39.6 GWh (31%)

Sc2 Sc2A Sc2B Sc2C

Base scenario plus adding of new consumers (Sc3)Additional heat consumption 54.7 GWh (42%)

Sc3 Sc3A Sc3B Sc3C

Base scenario plus Bio oil production integration to heat source and adding of new consumers (Sc4)Additional heat consumption 94.3 GWh (73%)

Sc4 Sc4A Sc4B Sc4C

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Technological indicator improvement bydifferent scenarios


3539

4552

19 21 2427

12 14 16 18

1 1 1 20

10

20

30

40

50

60

Shar

eof

loss

esby

cond

ensi

ng, %

Scenarios

Heat losses by condensing, percentage of producedheat %

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Evaluation ofdevelopmentscenarios bybioeconomy approach


⁄

AD – added value, EUR/t;Pr – profit, EUR per year;Sal – salary, EUR per year;De – depreciation, EUR per year;W – used fuel, ton per year.

32.68

74.99

121.06

58.10

020406080

100120140

Sc4 Sc3 Sc2 Sc1 Sc1A Sc1B Sc1C

Spec

ific

indi

cato

rs fo

r sc

enar

ios

Scenarios

Heat tariff, EUR/MWh Added value, EUR/t

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Which economic indicator is most importantforsustainable developmentofDH?


⁄

Heat tariff T, €/MWh?

Production tariff , €/MWh

– transmission and distribution tarifs, €/MWh;

– sales tariff, €/MWh; – produced amount

of heat, MWh;, - net income from

thermal energy and electricity sale;

, - amount of soldthermal energy and electricity; , - heattariff and electricity tariff;

– net revenue, € per year

Income of DH company In, € per year?

Profit of DH company, Pr € per year or %?Pr

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Comparison ofheattarifffordifferentscenarios

2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016

3035404550556065707580

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Heat

tarif

f, EU

R/M

Wh

CHP heat losses by condensing, %Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1CHeat tariff (by NG price 277.25 EUR/1000m3), EUR/MWhHeat tariff (by NG price 393.86 EUR/1000m3), EUR/MWhPotential scenarios of development of DH system

Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc310

Sc4

Comparison ofheattarifffordifferentscenarios withdifferent level ofretrofitting by end users

2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016

3035404550556065707580

10 20 30 40 50 60

Heat

tarif

f, EU

R/M

Wh

CHP heat losses by condensing, %

Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C Sc2 with Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2CSc3 with Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C

Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 11

Comparison cost ofsupplying heat andcost ofheat saving

2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3

020406080

100120140160180200

0 10 20 30 40 50

Heat

tarif

f and

cos

t of h

eat s

avin

gs,

EUR

/MW

h

Decrease of heat consumption, %

Heat tariff for Sc1 with different level of retrofitting (Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C)Heat tariff for Sc2 with different level of retrofitting (Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C)Heat tariff for Sc3 with different level of retrofitting (Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C)Cost of heat savings

27%

Cos

t of s

uppl

ying

hea

t,

12

Comparison ofDHcompany income fordifferentscenarios

2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 190000 210000 230000

Inco

me.

EUR

/m2

Heat

tarif

f, EU

R/M

Wh

Heat consumption, MWh per yearSc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C Sc2 with Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C

Sc3 with Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C Income by Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C

Income by Sc1, Sc2, Sc3, Sc4

Secondary axis

In(Sc3)/In(Sc1)=2.08

T(Sc1)/T(Sc3)=1.24(Sc2)

In(Sc2)

Conclusions


1. The analyzed DH development scenarios based on biomass using showthat it needs balanced approach to technologic, economic, environmental and social responsibility issues to increase the competitiveness of DH company with benefits for all stakeholders and for moving DH towards4GDH.

2. Research shows that by using bioeconomy approach it is possible to evaluate added value for all scenarios. Scenarios with production fromnew biomass products (bio oil) are a more sustainable solution whichallows to increase added value twice from 58.1 €/t wood chips to 121.1 €/t.

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Conclusions


3. Heat tariff is an important indicator, which combines efficiency of DH stages (heat source, distribution network, end users) all together. Reducing tariffs by improving DH's operation is not a sustainable solution for DH company because it reduces the company's revenue that decreases possibility to invest in next development.

4. In additional, reduction of heat tariff reduces the willingness to invest in the retrofitting of buildings and increases the time of reimbursement of the cost of these measures. The research shows that energy saving strategies are economically feasible only until 27% of decrease of heat consumption which cost of heat saving repayment is less than heat tariff. Such a small reduction of thermal energy consumption does not allow making qualitative retrofitting of buildings

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Conclusions


5. Optimal solution, which allows the DH transition to 4GDH, shows the best system design and minimizing DH system’s costs and optimal payment for heat energy for consumers.

6. Research shows that DH system should clearly concentrate their focus to development scenarios, which give possibility to raise income approximately 2 times.

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17

Additional information:

Dr.sc.ing.Jelena [email protected]

AcknowledgementsThe work has been supported by theNational Research Program “Energyefficient and low-carbon solutions for asecure, sustainable and climate variabilityreducing energy supply (LATENERGI)”.

CurrentSituationin the Latvian Districtheating (2)

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Hea

t prod

uctio

n techno

logy

share, %

Heat production technology share,%

CHP Boiler house

0.64%

65.49%

27.85%

6.02%

DH system fuel share in 2014, %

Others Natural gas Biomass Biogas*Source: Central Statistical Bureau. www.csb.gov.lv

Comparison ofDHcompany profit andinvestment forretrofitting

2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4

020406080100120140160180

0123456789

0 10 20 30 40 50

Inve

stm

ent f

or re

trof

ittin

g, E

UR/m

2

DH

com

pany

pro

fit, E

UR/m

2

Heat consumption decrease,%DH company profit for Sc1 with different retrofitting (Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C)DH company profit for Sc2 with different level of retrofitting (Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C)DH company profit for Sc3 with different level of retrofitting (Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C)DH company specific profit for Sc4 with different level of retrifitting (Sc4A, Sc4B, Sc4C)Investment for retrofitting

Secondary axis

Delta = 105 - 5 = 100 EUR/m2

19


01020304050607080

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Hea

t loa

d, M

W

Hours, h

Hot water Heating+hot water Heating+hot water+distribution losses Heat load

cooling losses max load 17.4 MW

Heat load curve

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Different fuel prices

Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts 21

0

5

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85

90

95

Fuel

cost

s, E

UR

/MW

h*

Period

Dīzeļdegviela

LPG

Dabas gāze (2)

Dabas gāze (5)

Koksnes granulas

Koksnes šķelda

Price (without VAT):

- diesel 472 EUR/t

- propane gas 760 EUR/t

- Natural gas (2.group) 0,3581EUR/m3

- Natural gas (5.group) 0,2961EUR/m3

- Wood pellets 135 EUR/t

- Wood chips 8,50 EUR/bulk m3

* Taking into account modern combustion efficiency coefficient

Diesel

Propane gas

Natural gas (2)

Natural gas (5)

Wood pellets

Wood chips

Restriction of District Heating Systems development towards 4GDH · 2019-04-18 · 4th Generation...

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