localbehaviourofbirthanotterprocesseserobeva/courses/WT2_19_20/... · 2020. 3. 18. · So Mltth h M...

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localbehaviourofbirthanotterprocesses An birth rate Mn death rate Given Xlt n what is X Ltth for h small P No events happen between t and tth t Hutten htoch Tn n Explintun P Tn h e Hutten h 1 Ant Man ht 01h I I Pfone birth event happens in Ltitth duh och Puente P Tn Ch Tutti h g fohldntfne Hnttht.PCTn.ph Hdt du Joh e Hutterite duntMute h t dt du Joh r Cdutantttoch l Cduntyunakh H tochDdt Ian Soh DL CLEEK cduqq.ee ttoChDdt dnhtoCh of we death event in 4th gun ht och aP More than two events in Ct tthD o.ch h Ch Quinn hto Chl ht och pinhtoch och

Transcript of localbehaviourofbirthanotterprocesseserobeva/courses/WT2_19_20/... · 2020. 3. 18. · So Mltth h M...

  • localbehaviourofbirthanotterprocesses

    An birth rate

    Mn deathrate

    Given Xlt n what isX Ltth forh small

    P No events happen betweent and tth t Hutten htoch

    Tn n Explintun P Tn he Hutten h

    1 AntMan ht 01h

    I IPfone birth event happens

    in Ltitth duh och

    Puente P TnCh Tutti h

    gfohldntfne Hnttht.PCTn.ph Hdt

    du Joh e HutteriteduntMute h t dt

    du Joh r Cdutantttoch lCduntyunakh H tochDdt

    Ian Soh DL CLEEK cduqq.eettoChDdt

    dnhtoChof we death event in 4th gun ht och

    aP More than two events in Ct tthD o.chh Ch Quinn htoChl ht och pinhtoch och

  • Given Xltl n

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    A idea we want to use theequations above to find an

    ODE satisfied by ME

    Math E XHthD EfECXCtthllXCtD

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    NEIGH X t och

    Xlt t Xlt Ayu 03h t och

  • So MltthhM µ f Kyu to t old

    o as h so

    As h O M Ct kyu Mlt t O 1st order linear ODEa If you havedoneMATH215

    DM solve withat AM

    0 Integrating factors

    It is a so called separable equationVariation of parametersmethod

    Mlt t

    J adM JDS t us the depends on the initialconditionIa enfants to tt K

    Assuming MCO i IL Iaen Caito

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    iaenfaa.MY

    taMLHto Caito eatMLts iecdmttffyufecd.int y

    Remark If 174 then Mlt grows exponentiallyCsingle birth rate single

    death rate

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    single birth mate singledeath rate

    If pi X M Ct Otto

  • condition on the value of Tn

    P Tn Ch TntTnt hJohppft PCTnt Tnt h Tn t dt

    Joh guy eHint M p fT tT

    dt

    Tn andTate areindependent

    Joh pin et HM p Tnt h t dt