LES INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIQUES POUR LA REDUCTION DE ...
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MONTPELLIER SUPAGRO Ecole Doctorale Economie et Gestion de Montpellier LES INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIQUES POUR LA REDUCTION DE LA DEFORESTATION TROPICALE. L'EXEMPLE DU MECANISME REDD (Réduction des Emissions liées a la Déforestation et la Dégradation des forêts) Thèse présentée pour obtenir le grade de DOCTEUR EN SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES Section C.N.U 05 Soutenue publiquement le 25 mars 2011 par Solenn Leplay Sous la direction de Sophie Thoyer Rapporteurs : Pascale Combes Motel et Gilles Rotillon JURY Sophie Thoyer Professeur, Montpellier SupAgro Directrice de thèse Jean-Michel Salles Directeur de recherche, CNRS, Montpellier Co-directeur de thèse Pascale Combes Motel Professeur, CERDI Clermont-Ferrand Rapporteur Gilles Rotillon Professeur, Université Paris X, Paris Rapporteur Romain Pirard Docteur, Chargé d’études IDDRI, Paris Examinateur
Transcript of LES INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIQUES POUR LA REDUCTION DE ...
M O N T P E L L I E R S U P A G R O
Ecole Doctorale Economie et Gestion de Montpellier
LES INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIQUES POUR LA REDUCTION
DE LA DEFORESTATION TROPICALE.
L'EXEMPLE DU MECANISME REDD
(Réduction des Emissions liées a la Déforestation et la Dégradation des
forêts)
Thèse présentée pour obtenir le grade de
D O C T E U R E N S C I E N C E S E C O N O M I Q U E S
Section C.N.U 05
Soutenue publiquement le
2 5 ma rs 2 01 1
par
Solenn Leplay
Sous la direction de Sophie Thoyer
Rapporteurs : Pascale Combes Motel et Gilles Rotillon
J U R Y
Sophie Thoyer Professeur, Montpellier SupAgro Directrice de thèse
Jean-Michel Salles Directeur de recherche, CNRS, Montpellier Co-directeur de thèse
Pascale Combes Motel Professeur, CERDI Clermont-Ferrand Rapporteur
Gilles Rotillon Professeur, Université Paris X, Paris Rapporteur
Romain Pirard Docteur, Chargé d’études IDDRI, Paris Examinateur
Montpellier SupAgro n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans cette thèse ; ces opinions
doivent être considérées comme propres à leur auteur.
A Lionel, à Grand Pa et à mes parents,
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Valeur économique totale
Usage Non-Usage
Valeur
d’option
Valeur
d’héritageValeur
d’usage direct
Bois d’œuvre
Bois de
chauffage
PFNL
Biomasse
Sol
Informations
génétiques
Fonctions de
protection
Fonction hydrologique
Fonction écologique
Fonction de régulation
climatique
Conservation,
durabilité
Production de la
diversité
biologique
Conservation
d’habitats
Paysage
Habitats et éco-
systèmes
Changements
irréversibles
Paysages
Habitats, éco-
systèmes
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danger
Valeur d’usage
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Coûts
d’opportunité
Rente
Offre de carbone
Demande de
carbone
Price
Quantité offerte
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Stocks
de
carbone
Seuil de référence
Avec la reforestation ou la
restauration des stocks de carbone Séquestration de
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di ∈ ]0, dmaxi [,)$(0 i = 1, 2@ 4& (0& 3'&3 %&8!'&#(&% 4< .!/"('< i@ )0&'& dmax
i $# (0& (!(3+
8!'&#( 3'&3 !8 .!/"('< i9 ?&( (d1, d2) 4& (0& *&.(!' !8 %&8!'&#(3($!" %&.$#$!"#9
1!/(0&'" .!/"('$&#A ,'&8&'&".&# 3'& .3,(/'&% 4< /($+$(< 8/".($!"# U i(di , wi + Ti)9 :0&
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3"% ($74&'5 3"% $"$($3+ &B!-&"!/# )&3+(0 wi )0$.0 .3" 4& $".'&3#&% 4< ('3"#8&'# Ti 8'!7
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9 F($+$(<
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$"(/$($*& ,'!,&'($&#G
U i1 =
∂U i
∂di
≥ 0 ∀di ∈ ]0, di[
= 0 ∀di ∈[
di, dmaxi
[
2H9I5
U i2 =
∂U i
∂ (wi + Ti)≥ 0, 2H9J5
U i11 =
∂2U i
(∂di)2 ≤ 0, U i
22 =∂2U i
[∂ (wi + Ti)]2 ≤ 0. 2H9K5
L'!,&'(< H9I $"%$.3(&# (03( 4&<!"% 3 -$*&" %&8!'&#(3($!" (0'�!+% di, (0& 73'-$"3+ /($+$(<
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8'!7 '!3%# 3"% 73'>&(#5@ 4$!6,0<#$.3+ '&3#!"# 2"3(/'& !8 #!$+#@ #+!,&#@ .+$73($. .!"%$($!"#5
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.3#& )0&" (0& 73'-$"3+ /($+$(< !8 %&8!'&#(3($!" $# "!( .03"-&% 4< (0& +&*&+ !8 )&3+(0G
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!" #$%&!'($)&! *+%,+-.-., /$0"1 !"
U12 = 0 !"!#
$%&'()*' +),' '-.(&'/+0+ 0+ 1(& /2+0%- &/+&23%/4 5/ 2++)6/ &'2& 7()&'/81 ,()1&80/+ /%0*03%/
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28*)6/1&4 5/2%&'4 &'8()*' H121,02% &821+9/8+"
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3/%(5 2 32+/%01/ %/=/% dbi 4 db
i < di. A'/ H121,02% &821+9/8+ Ti 28/ .20> .8(.(8&0(112%%- &(
&'/ >0C/8/1,/ 3/&5//1 &'/ (3+/8=/> >/9(8/+&2&0(1 82&/ 21> &'/ 32+/%01/F
Ti =
t(
dbi − di
)
09 di < dbi
0 (&'/850+/
t 0+ &'/ &821+9/8 82&/" J& 8/K/,&+ &'/ =2%)/ (9 2=(0>/> >/9(8/+&2&0(1 01 &/86+ (9 8/>),/>
/60++0(1+ (9 ,283(1
" A'/ 3)>*/& (9 &'/ *%(32% &821+9/8 9)1> 6)+& 3/ 32%21,/>" A'/8/9(8/4
09 &'/ +)6 (9 &'/ D(8&'/81 ,()1&80/+L ,(1&803)&0(1+ &( &'/ 9)1> 0+ e &'/1F
T1 + T2 = e
M1>/8 &'/ !"##$%&'!"($ +,/1280(4 01 &'/ 23+/1,/ (9 &'/ :;<< 6/,'210+64 &'/8/ 28/ 1(
6(1/&28- &8219/8+ T1 = T2 = e = 0# 21> 7()&'/81 ,()1&80/+ +/&&%/ 9(8 >/9(8/+&2&0(1
>/,0+0(1+ dNi F
U i1 (di, wi) = 0 ⇒ dN
i ∈[
di, dmaxi
[
N()1&8- i 0+ 01>0C/8/1& 3/&5//1 21- >/9(8/+&2&0(1 >/,0+0(1 dNi ∈
[
di, dmaxi
[
F 5/ 2++)6/
&'2& 0& 50%% ,'((+/ &( >/9(8/+& di" A'/ 8/+)%&01* *%(32% >/9(8/+&2&0(1 %/=/% d1 +d2 0+ G)>*/>
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!"#$#"#%&'
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#) "*% 4,3 #) ]0, dbi ]5
#$%&'('$%
limdi→0
U i1
[
di, wi + t(
dbi − di
)]
− tU i2
[
di, wi + t(
dbi − di
)]
> 0 .
#$%&'('$% !
limdi→db
i , di<dbi
U i1
[
di, wi + t(
dbi − di
)]
− tU i2
[
di, wi + t(
dbi − di
)]
< 0 .
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[
0, dbi
]
' (" 0#11 1&, ;% <1,; 1
3 9#323 0*%)5
#$%&'('$% ) U i(
d∗i , wi + t(
dbi − d∗i
))
≥ U i(
di, wi
)
.
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@'7' (" * & 4#&!,)"#)2#": .,#)" " di = dbi .
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d∗i B4!04 <8=!<!>%5 +4%!$ #+!,!+- #/;%$ +4% DEFF <%048/!5<9 G/1B!/" +4%!$ 785%,!/% dbi
K;%+%$<!/%; !/ +4% 6$%A!1#5 6%$!1;L' ?% .10#5 1/ +4% 51,#+!1/ d∗i 1. +4% #+!,!+- <8=!<!>8M
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01/;!+!1/5)
U i1 (d∗i , wi + Ti)− tU i
2 (d∗i , wi + Ti) = 0, i = 1, 2. K&'OL
!" #$%&!'($)&! *+%,+-.-., /$0"1 !"
!"# $%& '!($ "!)&! *"+),$,"+( "- $%& .$,/,$0 #12,#,31$,"+ 4!"5/ 7& *1/*./1$&8
dd∗iddb
i
=t2U i
22 − tU i12
U i11 − 2tU i
12 + t2U i22
=tU i
12 − U i11
U i11 − 2tU i
12 + t2U i22
+ 1 9:;<=
>+)&! %04"$%&(,( :;:6 7& %1?&8
dd∗iddb
i
=t2U i
22
U i11 + t2U i
22
=−U i
11
U i11 + t2U i
22
+ 1 9:;@=
A,?&+ *"+),$,"+( :;B 6 7& *1+ ,+-&! -!"# CD.1$,"+ 9:;@= $%1$8
dd∗iddb
i
∈ ]0, 1[ 9:;E=
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7,$% $%& 51(&/,+& /&?&/ dbi $%1$ ,( +&G"$,1$&) ,+ $%& (&*"+) ($1G&;
#$%&'( ) ! "#$ %&'(%)%" *+,)"%-, "#$-.$&/
dd∗idt
=U i
2 + (tU i22 − U i
12)(
dbi − d∗i
)
U i11 − 2tU i
12 + t2U i22
.
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9$)%1%-, d∗i . :-8$6$.7 "#%1 %1 -,(! "#$ )41$ %* t ≤ −U i2
U i22
(dbi−d∗i )
; <* t >−U i
2
U i22
(dbi−d∗i )
7 =-+"#$.,
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)"$+! $ +'-2)'-(*"
(
db∗1 , db∗
2
)
6!(+! *$ (*7"* !" 8',,'6(&1 0431" +'&* )$(& 9
e = t(
db1 + db
2 − d∗1 − d∗2)
. :;.<=
>"&+"5 !" '4 +'-" '8 !" 0$)1$(&(&1
(
db∗1 , db∗
2
)
-4* 0",'&1 ' !" 8',,'6(&1 !"#$%&! #!' 9
Ω =
(
db1, d
b2
)
/e
t= db
1 + db2 − d∗1 − d∗2, db
1 ≤ d1, db2 ≤ d2
. :;.?@=
A!" 0$)1$(&(&1 '%") !" 0$*",(&" +$& 0" +'&+"2 4$,(B"3 (& *"%")$, 6$#*. /" 4*" !")" !"
C$*! 0$)1$(&(&1 *',4 ('& +'&+"2 .
#$%%&'
D" E* 3"7&" "$+! +'4& )#E* (&3()"+ 4 (,( # 84&+ ('&* $* 8',,'6*9
H i(dbi) ≡ U i
[
di
(
dbi
)
, wi + t(
dbi − di
(
dbi
))]
. :;.??=
F8 G'4 !")& +'4& )("* 8$(, ' )"$+! $& $1)""-"& 5 !")" 6(,, 0" &' C') !HG'4 ! )$&*H
8")* $&3 G'4 !")& +'4& )("* 6(,, +!''*" !"() -$I(-4- 3"8')"* $ ('& )$ " di. F&3()"+
4 (,( ("* 6(,, 0"9
Hi ≡ U i
(
di, wi
)
.
J**4-(&1 !$ !" 0$)1$(&"3 '4 +'-" (* 1(%"& 0# !" C$*! *',4 ('&
(
db∗1 , db∗
2
)
5 $&3 !$
(
H1, H
2)
)"2)"*"& !" 4 (,( ("* $ !" !)"$ 2'(& * 8') +'4& )# ? $&3 +'4& )# K5 !"&
(
db∗1 , db∗
2
)
-4* *',%"9
max(db
1,db
2)∈Ω
[
(H1(db1)−H
1]ǫ1
[
H2(db2)−H
2]ǫ2
,
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, i = 1, 2
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γ1 U1 (d1, m1) + γ2 U2 (d2, m2) + γ3 U3 (d1 + d2, m3) , F !G H
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γ1 U11 (d1, m1) + γ3 U3
1 (d1 + d2, m3) = 0
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1 (d1 + d2, m3) = 0
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2 (d1 + d2, m3) = 0
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2
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!" #$%&!"'( )$%(&'* +"&+ %, - ./# +)!"0" &$ '"1%)" 1"2$'"+&-&3$(4 3( $'1"' &$ 5$3(
&!" 3(&"'(-&3$(-6 7/88 0")!-(3+0 -(1 $9&-3( &!" ,-*0"(& T 1"+)'39"1 -9$:" 2'$0
;$'&!"'( )$%(&'3"+< =" 0->" &!" -++%0,&3$( &!-& #$%&!"'( )$%(&'3"+ !-:" '"-13"1 &!"
3(2'-+&'%)&%'" (")"++-'* &$ 0$(3&$' "03++3$( '"1%)&3$(+ -& &!" (-&3$(-6 6":"6< =" )$(+31"'
&?$ &*,"+ $2 #$%&!"'( @$:"'(0"(&+A - B9"(":$6"(&C @$:"'(0"(& &!-& 0-D303E"+ +$)3-6
?"62-'"4 F0"-+%'"1 !"'" -+ &$&-6 -@'3)%6&%'-6 ,'$G& ,6%+ 3()$0" 2'$0 &!" 3(&"'(-&3$(-6
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9"&?""( 3()$0" 2'$0 &!" 3(&"'(-&3$(-6 7/88 ,-*0"(& -(1 ,-*0"(&+ 0-1" &$ 2-'0"'+
%(1"' ./# +)!"0"+
< !3+ B9%1@"&I0-D303E3(@C &*," )-( )-,&%'" &!" 2"-&%'"+ $2 -
)$''%,& @$:"'(0"(&4 ?-(&3(@ &$ 13:"'& ,%963) 0$("* &$ &!" 9"("G& $2 - ,$63&3)-6 "63&"4 9%&
3& )-( -6+$ 1"+)'39" - @$:"'(0"(& ?-(&3(@ &$ 3(:"+& 7/88 3()$0" 3( $&!"' +")&$'+ F2$'
"1%)-&3$(4 !"-6&!4 3(2'-+&'%)&%'"4 $' ":"( -@'3)%6&%'"H< K66 63("-' )$093(-&3$(+ $2 &!"+"
&?$ "D&'"0" &*,"+ 1"+)'39" &!" '-(@" $2 @$:"'(0"(&-6 9"!-:3$'+ &!-& )$%61 9" $9+"':"1<
!" @$:"'(0"(& 0-D303E"+ 3&+ %&363&* U 4 +%95")& &$ 9%1@"& )$(+&'-3(& &!-& &$&-6 ./#
,-*0"(&+ )-(($& "D)""1 7/88 ,-*0"(&+A
max U = T + α (ΠBAUT + ΠP
T ) + (1− α) (−E) FL<MH
s.t. T ≥ E
?!"'" ΠP3+ &!" &$&-6 -@'3)%6&%'-6 ,'$G& $2 -66 2-'0"'+ ,-'&3)3,-&3(@ 3( &!" (-&3$(-6 ./#
+)!"0"4 "D)6%13(@ ./# '")"3:"1
!
4 -(1 ΠBAU3+ &!" &$&-6 -@'3)%6&%'-6 ,'$G& $2 -66 2-'0"'+
?!$ 1$ ($& ,-'&3)3,-&" 3( &!" ./# +)!"0" -(1 ,%'+%" &!"3' NKO -@'3)%6&%'-6 -)&3:3&3"+<
E )$''"+,$(1+ &$ &!" ,-*0"(& 2'$0 &!" #$%&!"'( @$:"'(0"(& &$ 2-'0"'+ ,-'&3)3,-&3(@ &$
&!" ./#< α 1"+)'39"+ &!" &*," $2 @$:"'(0"(&A 32 α = 14 &!" @$:"'(0"(& 3+ 9"(":$6"(&4
-(1 3& 0-D303+"+ &$&-6 ?"62-'" 0"-+%'"1 !"'" -+ &!" +%0 $2 3(&"'(-&3$(-6 ,-*0"(&+ ,6%+
,'$G&+ @"("'-&"1 9* -@'3)%6&%'-6 -)&3:3&3"+ P -(1 32 α = 04 3& 3+ 9%1@"& 0-D303E3(@<
?$ ./# +)!"0"+ -'" )$(+31"'"1 3( &!" 2$66$?3(@ +")&3$(
"
A
!" #$%&'$()*+$!,- ./ 0! ,!+ )!,#$0/" +1/ &!+/,+$*' &!#$+$2/ 3//04*)5 /6/)+# !, +1/ 4708/+ !3 +*9
"/2/,7/ 3"!% *8"$)7'+7"/:;/ *'#! *##7%/ +1*+ 8!2/",%/,+# 0! ,!+ +*5/ $,+! *))!7,+ $, +1/$" 7+$'$+<
37,)+$!, +1/ /,2$"!,%/,+*' 0/8"*0*+$!, *##!)$*+/0 .$+1 0/3!"/#+*+$!,:
!
=>? &*<%/,+# +! 3*"%/"# *"/ ,!+ $,)'70/0 4/)*7#/ +1/< *"/ )!,#$0/"/0 0!%/#+$) &*<%/,+#@ +1/< *"/
0/07)+/0 3"!% +1/ &74'$) 4708/+ *,0 *00/0 +! 3*"%/"# #7"&'7#: A3 ./ *##7%/ +1*+ =>? 1*2/ ,!
+"*,#*)+$!, )!#+#- +1/, +1/#/ &*<%/,+# *"/ ,/7+"*' $, +/"%# !3 +!+*' 0!%/#+$) ./'3*"/:
"
B1/#/ #)1/%/# *'$8, )'!#/'< .$+1 +1/ CD7*#$E*7)+$!, #)/,*"$!F *,0 C&/"E+!, )*"4!, &*<%/,+ %!0*'$+<F
0/#)"$4/0 $, G!",/" /+ *' HIJKJL
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! "# $%&&%'()#*(+ ,%-(. ,%/&0#-1(*%# -,20/0 *# 32*,2 01,2 &1'(*,*&1(*#4 51'/0' *-
061,(7+ ,%/&0#-1(08 5%' 2*- %&&%'()#*(+ ,%-( %5 '08),*#4 805%'0-(1(*%#9 :# (2*- -,20/0;
30 1--)/0 (21( &1'(*,*&1(*#4 51'/0'- 1'0 '0<)*'08 (% 1=1(0 805%'0-(1(*%# (% >0'%9 ?20
-0((*#4 )& %5 -),2 -,20/0 '0<)*'0- (21( (20 -,20/0 /1#140' @(20'015(0' (20 4%A0'#/0#(!
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E! " $D608F&'*,0. -,20/0 *# 32*,2 51'/0'- 1'0 177 %G0'08 (20 -1/0 D608 &1+/0#( &0'
20,(1'0 %5 1A%*808 805%'0-(1(*%# '071(*A0 (% (20*' H"I 805%'0-(1(*%#9 I#80' (2*- -,20/0;
51'/0'- ,2%%-0 (20 70A07 %5 1A%*808 805%'0-(1(*%# (20+ 31#( (% 1,2*0A09 ?2*- *- =1-08 %#
(20 1--)/&(*%# (21( &)=7*, 1)(2%'*(*0- ,1# %=-0'A0 *#8*A*8)17 805%'0-(1(*%# 70A07-; =%(2
)#80' H"I 1#8 )#80' JKL ,%#('1,(9
!"!"!#! $%& '((')*+,-*. /'0* /'1(&,02*-', 0/%&1&
:# (20 %&&%'()#*(+ ,%-( ,%/&0#-1(*%# -,20/0 @MN! ; 30 1--)/0 (21( (20 4%A0'#/0#( ,1#
%=-0'A0 51'/0'-C *#8*A*8)17 1/%)#(- %5 805%'0-(08 1'01- )#80' H"I; 1- 3077 1- 51'/0'-C
%&&%'()#*(+ ,%-(-9 ?20 4%A0'#/0#( %G0'- 1 ,%/&0#-1(*%# &1+/0#( (% 51'/0'- 0<)17
(% (20*' 5%'04%#0 '0A0#)0; *5 51'/0'- 14'00 (% 1=1(0 (20*' 70A07 %5 805%'0-(1(*%# (% >0'%
@LPi (λi) = 0 *5 i O%*#- (20 -,20/0!9 :# (20%'+; 51'/0'- 1'0 06&0,(08 (% =0 *#8*G0'0#(
=0(300# &1'(*,*&1(*#4 *# (20 &'%4'1/ *# 06,21#40 5%' (20 5%'04%#0 &'%D(; %' &)'-)*#4
(20*' 14'*,)7()'17 1,(*A*(*0-9 P0 1--)/0 20'0 (21(; *5 4*A0# (20 ,2%*,0; 51'/0'- -*4# )&
1#8 1=1(0 805%'0-(1(*%# (% >0'%9 ?20 4%A0'#/0#( ,1# (2)- -070,( (20 51'/0'- (% 32%/ (%
&'%&%-0 1 JKL ,%#('1,(; 1#8 3*77 -070,( (2%-0 51'/0'- 3*(2 (20 7%30-( %&&%'()#*(+ ,%-(-9
?20 -,20/0 *- *77)-('1(08 *# Q*4)'0 R9ES *# (20 H"I -,0#1'*%; 51'/0'- λ;λ1 1#8 λ 805%'0-(
MH; MT 1#8 MK '0-&0,(*A07+9 :# (20 ,1-0 320'0 51'/0'- λ 1#8 λ1 1'0 -070,(08 (% &1'(*,*F
&1(0 *# (20 MN -,20/0; 51'/0' λ '08),0- 805%'0-(1(*%# (% >0'% 1#8 40(- &1*8 M"H; 51'/0'
λ1 17-% -(%&- 805%'0-(1(*%# 1#8 40(- 1 ,%/&0#-1(*%# MNT; 1#8 51'/0' λ *- #%( *#A*(08 (%
O%*# (20 -,20/0; =)( 805%'0-(- 1'01 MK9
?20 4%A0'#/0#( ,2%%-0- (20 (%(17 70A07 %5 805%'0-(1(*%# 32*,2 /16*/*>0- *(- )(*7*(+; -)=O0,(
(% (20 =)840( ,%#-('1*#( (21( (%(17 &1+/0#(- (% 51'/0'- 1'0 #%( 4'01(0' (21# UKTT
&1+/0#(-9 Q1'/0'- 1'0 *#A*(08 (% O%*# (20 -,20/0; -(1'(*#4 3*(2 (20 7%30-( %&&%'()#*(+
,%-( 51'/0'; )& (% (20 $/1'4*#17 51'/0'. λ; 32%-0 ,%#('*=)(*%# (% (20 -,20/0 0#1=70- (20
4%A0'#/0#( (% 1,2*0A0 *(- ,2%-0# 70A07 %5 1A%*808 805%'0-(1(*%#9 Q1'/0' λ *- (2)- (20 71-(
51'/0' O%*#*#4 (20 MN -,20/09 ?2*- 51'/0'- -&7*(- (20 &%&)71(*%# *#(% (3% 4'%)&-S (2%-0
32% &1'(*,*&1(0
(
λ ∈ [λ, λ])
; 1#8 -(%& 805%'0-(*#4
(
LPi (λi) = 0
)
*# 06,21#40 5%' 1# 061,(
,%/&0#-1(*%# %5 (20*' %&&%'()#*(+ ,%-(-; 1#8 (2%-0 32% 8% #%( &1'(*,*&1(0
(
λ ∈ [λ, λ])
;
1#8 ,%#(*#)0 (% 805%'0-( 1- )-)17
(
LBAUi (λi)
)
9
Marginal profit of
deforestation
Deforested area
A
BO
C
D E
maxλB
U = maxλB
t
ˆ λB
λ
LBAUi (λ)dλ +
ˆ λ
λB
ΠBAUi (L (λ))dλ
s.t. t
ˆ λB
λ
LBAU(λ)dλ ≥ˆ λB
λ
ΠBAUi (L (λ))dλ
maxλM
U = maxλM
t
ˆ λM
λ
LBAUi (λ)dλ−
ˆ λM
λ
ΠBAUi (L (λ))dλ
s.t. t
ˆ λM
λ
LBAU(λ)dλ ≥ˆ λM
λ
ΠBAUi (L (λ))dλ
λ´ λ
λΠBAU
i (L (λ))dλ´ λ
λΠBAU
i (L (λ))dλ
λ = λB = λM
t t = Π(LBAU (λ))
LBAU (λ)
λ
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!"! # $%&'()*%#'( +,- ."' &,'. t /. ,' 0.,1' .2#,0 '% '(. ,3.&,4. %++%&'#"!'- 5%1'
%6 λ7 !" '(!1 5,1. λ !1 '(. %"0- 6,& .& 8%!"!"4 '(. 15(. . ,"9 tmin =Π(LBAU (λ))
LBAU (λ): ;%&
%&. 9.',!01 ,/%#' &.1#0'1< 1.. =++."9!> ?:
!"!"!"! #$% &'%()*+,-% .-$%/%
@" '(. A>.9)+&!5. B;CD 15(. .< '(. 4%3.&" ."' %E.&1 , A>.9)+&!5. K +.& #"!' %6 ,3%!9.9
9.6%&.1','!%": F,5( 6,& .& i 8%!"!"4 '(. 15(. . 5(%%1.1 '(. 0.3.0 %6 9.6%&.1','!%" LPi (λi)
(. G,"'1 '% 5% !' '%< !" %&9.& '% ,>! !H. (!1 !"5% . RP (λi): I(. 4%3.&" ."' 5(%%1.1
'(. '%',0 9.6%&.1','!%" 0.3.0 '% ,>! !H.< '(." 1.'1 '(. %+'! ,0 K∗+.& (.5',&. %6 ,3%!9.9
9.6%&.1','!%" 5%&&.1+%"9!"4 '% '(. 9.1!&.9 '%',0 ,3%!9.9 9.6%&.1','!%":
;!4#&. J:K !00#1'&,'.1 '(. A>.9)+&!5. 15(. .7 6,& .&1 λ, λ, λ 8%!" '(. 15(. .: ;,& .&1 λ
,"9 λ &.9#5. 9.6%&.1','!%" '% H.&% ,"9 4.' +,!9 &.1+.5'!3.0- L=MN ,"9 L=OF: ;,& .&
λ &.9#5.1 9.6%&.1','!%" 6&% L@ '% L? ,"9 4.'1 +,!9 ;P?@:
I(. 6,& .&Q1 ,>! !H,'!%" +&%4&, !17
maxL
RP = λi f (L (λi))− ω LPi (λi) + K
(
LBAUi (λi)− LP
i (λi))
BJ:JD
s.t. LBAUi (λi) > LP
i (λi) ,"9 RP (λi) > ΠBAUi (Li)
I(. A&1')%&9.& 5%"9!'!%" !17
dR
dL= 0 ⇐⇒ f ′ (Lp (λi)) =
ω + K
λi
BJ:RD
*!"5.
ω+Kλi
≥ ωλi,"9 f ′ !1 , 9.5&.,1!"4 6#"5'!%"< LP
i (λi) = f ′−1(ω+Kλi
) ≤ LBAU (λi) !1
,0G,-1 3.&!A.9:
I(. /.".3%0."' 4%3.&" ."'Q1 ,>! !H,'!%" +&%/0. !17
maxKB
U(
KB)
= maxKB
t
ˆ λ
λ
(
LBAUi (λ)− LP
i
(
λ, KB))
dλ +
ˆ λ
λ
ΠPi
(
λ, KB)
dλBJ:SD
s.t. t ≥ KB
T(!0. '(. /#94.') ,>! !H!"4 4%3.&" ."'Q1 +&%4&, !17
maxKM
U(
KM)
= maxKM
(
t−KM)
ˆ λ
λ
(
LBAUi (λ)− LP
i
(
λ, KM))
dλ BJ:UD
s.t. t ≥ KM
KB
KM
K3
K1
Marginal profit of
deforestation
Deforested
area
A B
O C E
D GF
sted IH
KB∗ KM∗
K∗
K∗, < λ f ′ (0) − ω ⇒ LPi (λi) = f ′−1
(
ω+K1
λi
)
, ∀λ ∈[
λ; λ]
K∗ = K1
LPT =´ λ
λLP
i (λ) dλ
λ f ′ (0)−ω ≤ K∗ < λ f ′ (0)−ω,⇒
LPi (λi) = 0 ∀λ ∈
[
λ; λ]
LPi (λi) = f ′−1
(
ω+K2
λi
)
∀λ ∈[
λ; λ]
K∗ = K2 λ = ω+K2
f ′(0)
λ ∈[
λ; λ]
λ ∈[
λ; λ]
LPT =
´ λ
λLP
i (λ) dλ
K∗ ≥ λ f ′ (0) − ω, K∗ = K3 ⇒ LPi (λi) = 0 ∀λ ∈
[
λ; λ]
K = λ f ′ (0)−ω
t ≥ K
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B
K
A
N
M
C
O
F
DE
G
H
FP>OC
Avoided deforestation: OD < AD+EH
PES budget expenses: OMD > ABCD + FGEH
Agent j
Agent k
Marginal profit of
deforestation
L
FP < OC
Avoided deforestation: O’D’ > A’D’+E’H’
PES budget expenses: O’M’D < A’B’C’D’+F’G’E’H’
K’B’
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Agent k’
Marginal Profit of
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(
c− b2
2a
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b< λi 0(5 ΠBAU (λi) > 0 ⇒
− ω2
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(
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LBAUi − LP
i = − Kaλi
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[
λ; λ]
3 +11
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´ λ
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ω
λ≤ f ′ (0) < ω
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i (λi) = 0, ∀λ ∈[
λ; λ]
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(
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)
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[
λ; λ]
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ω
λ≤ f ′ (0) < ω
λ=⇒
LBAUi (λi) = 0 !%* λ ∈ [λ; λ0]
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i (λi) = 0, ∀λ ∈[
λ; λ]
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Thèse de doctorat de Solenn Leplay.
Les instruments économiques pour la réduction de la déforestation tropicale. L’exemple du
mécanisme REDD (Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation des Forêts).
Résumé : Réduire la déforestation dans les pays tropicaux est un des principaux défis pour la communauté
internationale dans le cadre du processus de négociations de la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le
Changement Climatique (CCNUCC). En effet, la déforestation est la seconde source d’émissions de gaz à effets
de serre, juste derrière les émissions industrielles. Depuis 2005, un nouvel instrument international pour réduire
les émissions de carbone liées à la déforestation tropicale est en négociation à la CCNUCC. Ce mécanisme,
appelé REDD+ (Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et Dégradation des forêts) repose sur un
système de compensation financière des pays en développement pour leurs efforts en termes de déforestation
évitée. Cependant, la mise en œuvre du mécanisme REDD+ à l’échelle nationale et internationale soulève de
nombreux problèmes méthodologiques et rencontre de nombreux obstacles. Le but de la thèse est double. Dans
une première partie, une description et une analyse du mécanisme REDD+ est réalisée. Dans une deuxième
partie, de nouvelles perspectives concernant le design du mécanisme REDD+ et sur sa mise en œuvre sont
offertes, en se basant sur trois essais rédigés en format article. Le premier essai propose un modèle de théorie des
jeux reflétant le processus de négociation Nord-Sud du mécanisme REDD. Il étudie les conditions régissant le
partage de fonds entre les pays en développement et leurs impacts sur l’efficacité du système d’incitations. Le
deuxième essai utilise un modèle en économétrie de panel pour différencier des comportements nationaux de
déforestation selon la dotation relative en forêts de chaque pays. Le troisième essai s’intéresse à la mise en œuvre
du mécanisme REDD+, en comparant les résultats de deux programmes de paiement pour services
environnementaux pour deux types de gouvernements. Le modèle développé dans cet essai est ensuite testé dans
le contexte de la déforestation en Indonésie, grâce à une base de données fournie par l’ONG Conservation
International.
Mots-clés : déforestation tropicale, changement climatique, REDD+, théorie des jeux, économétrie,
économie publique, paiements pour services environnementaux.
International economic instruments for the reduction of tropical deforestation: the example of
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation).
Abstract: Curbing deforestation in tropical countries is one of the main current challenges for international
community in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Indeed, deforestation is the
second leading cause of greenhouse gas emissions just behind industrial emissions. Since 2005, a new instrument
to slow down CO2 emissions from tropical deforestation is under negotiations at the UNFCCC. This mechanism,
called REDD+ (for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) is supported by a simple
principle: it consists to reward developing countries for their efforts to avoid deforestation. However, the
national and international implementations of REDD+ raise lot of methodological questions and meet several
hurdles. The aims of the thesis are twofold. First, it proposes a description and an analysis of the REDD+
mechanism. Second, it is composed by three essays, which raise some questions about REDD+ design and
implementation, in order to offer new perspectives on this mechanism. The first essay develops a game-theoretic
bargaining model, simulating the on-going negotiation process over the REDD+ mechanism. It shows that the
conditions under which developing countries are left to bargain over the allocation of the global forest fund may
lead to an ineffective system of incentives. The second essay used a panel data analysis to reveal contrasted
deforestation behaviors of tropical countries according to their relative endowment in forest cover. The aim of
the third essay offered an illustration of REDD+ implementation, comparing the outcomes in terms of avoided
deforestation and utility of two payments for environmental services designs for two types of governments. The
model developed in this article is applied in the Indonesian context of deforestation, thanks to a database
supplied by the NGO Conservation International.
Key words: tropical deforestation, climate change, REDD+, game theory, econometrics, public economies,
payments for environmental services
