www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr

Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie

Crédit photo : Arnaud Bouissou/MEDDE

FLIS annual meeting

Copenhagen

November 12- 13, 2013

Halvard HervieuCGDD Mission prospective

Territoires 2030Local experimentation of national scenarios

2

General framework of the exercise

The prospective program Territoires Durables 2030 has been launched in 2010 to look forward at the strategies available for the regional and local bodies to cope with difficult futures.

There are three levels or type of scenarios :

4 exploratory scenarios for France

4 territorial figures or attitudes for typical regions written by the expert group on the national level

7 modified or mixed scenarios discussed on a local basis by regions who volunteered

3

The four context scenarios for France

This is a complete exercise and the results are:

« la belle endormie »: a happy but declining country living from tourism and agriculture

« enlisement »: there are no choice made and both the economy and the environment get worse

« germanica »: the industry is back and a liberal France becomes very competitive

« nouvelles frontières »: new technologies and green growth bring prosperity

4

After discussion, one national context scenario «  enlisement » has been chosen. It is pessimistic so the regions have to take action for a better future.

Territoires leviers ( with a leverage power) is about metropoles and innovation

Territoires inversés ( the other way round) is giving the countryside the lead with life quality and natural resources

Territoires singuliers (working together, project by project) is working on different scales with public/private cooperation

Territoires affinitaires ( choosing your partners) is based on networks, internet but also social cooperation.

The four territorial figures

5

The first step was to get 7 territories to participate to the experiment for a duration of 6 months which is still going on.

A consultant has been appointed to help the regions and be present at the key reunions. Meetings at the Mission Prospective at Paris enabled the launching and the experience sharing.

Three possibilities to handle the scenarios where proposed to the participants :

To take one or two scenarios and try to apply them and see how relevant they can be

Look at existing scenarios on the territory and compare them with the new ones

Be creative and use the scenarios to rethink the stakes and futures of their territories.

How to proceed ?

6

7 territories for the experiment

Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation territoriale

7

The Choice of the scenarios

Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation territoriale

It is difficult to choose just one

Each territory has his own approach for a given scenario

No scenario is “ideal”, or “repelling”

The 4 scenarios seem probable but not complete

8

Territoires leviers : “the strongest has his way”

Are the metropoles in capacity of driving the rest of the contry ?

How strong are really the so-called territorial champions ?

Woriness about a discrepancy with an aspiration towards a human-size city”

Impression of a business as usual scenario

Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation territoriale

9

Territoires inversés : “before sharing wealth, it must be produced ” It looks like the usual

local developpement scenario taking advantage of ressources and amenities

For this reason, this alternative scenario is very dependant of the valuable assets of the territory.

A scenario to be understood in opposition to the territoires leviers scenario.Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation

territoriale

10

Territoires singuliers : “when there is a will, there is a way”

Best scenario for governance....

Already many seeds can be observed …

… but how to be sure that the different actors, representing competing territories will be able to work together.

Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation territoriale

11

Territoires affinitaires : “so near, but also so far”

Going digital can change the wole territory.

New economical and social models towards a greener and more inclusive society seem possible and positive

A deep question about how the government will behave in front of civil society and the general population:Leading the transition, supporting it or setting regulation?

Atelier TD 2030 du 20/09/2013 - Point d'étape sur l'expérimentation territoriale

12

Scenarios Territoire Durable 2030

www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr

Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie

Thanks for your attention