La nouvelle donnede l’industrie pétrolière et gazière

par

Nordine Ait-Laoussine

Alger/AlgérieLe 23 février 2013

N13-02.00

10e SessionForum d’Alger

Plan de présentation

• Introduction

• Rétrospective des principaux évènements

• La nouvelle donne pétrolière- Implications pour l’OPEP

• La nouvelle donne gazière- Implications pour l’Algérie

• Conclusions

N13-02.01

The world’s center of gravity is shifting to Asia

N13-02.02

 Oil Consumption (in mmbd) Gas Consumption (in bcm)

2000 2011 ê 2000 2011 êOECD 48.6 46.4 -2.2 1'356 1'534 +178China 4.6 9.2 +4.6 10 130 +120Other Asia 7.8 11.0 +3.2 197 460 +263Middle East 4.7 7.4 +2.7 187 403 +216Other Non-OECD 11.5 14.8 +3.3 672 825 +153World 77.2 88.8 +11.6 2'422 3'352 +930

GDP Ranking PIW TOP 50 Ranking2000 2011 2000 2011

1. USA 1. USA Petrochina (9) CNPC (4)2. Japan 2. China Pertamina (10) ONGC (19)3. Germany 3. Japan Petronas (24) Petronas (20)4. UK 4. Germany ONGC (32) Sinopec (21)5. France 5. Brazil Sinopec (33) Pertamina (28)6. China 6. UK CPC (49) CNOOC (33)

ê ê4.8 mmbd 6.2 mmbd120 bcm 213 bcm

Sources: BP Statistics, IEA and PIW

IOCs are struggling to meet their reserves and production targets

N13-02.03

Sources: Companies’ annual reports and PIW

% of World Reserves3.7

Higher oil prices have ledto spectacular growth in oil and gas output

N13-02.04

(1) Including biofuels and processing gainsSources: BP Statistics and IEA

Oil Production Growth (mmbd) Gas Production Growth (bcm)

  2000 2012 ê   2000 2012

Russia 6.5 10.7 +4.2 Middle East 208 526 +318

Other FSU 1.5 3.0 +1.5 Russia + Other FSU 683 800 +117

USA 8.0 9.1 +1.1 USA 543 651 +108

Canada 2.7 3.8 +1.1 China 27 103 +76

China 3.3 4.2 +0.9 Africa 130 203 +73

Brazil 1.3 2.2 +0.9 Latin America 100 168 +68

Colombia 0.7 1.0 +0.3 Europe 256 236 -20

Other Non-OPEC 22.5 19.3 -3.2 Other 466 589 +123

Total Non-OPEC(1) 46.5 53.3 +6.8 Total World 2'413 3'276 +863

Les cours du brut ont connu une volatilité extrêmeentre 2007 et 2010

N13-02.05

US $/bl

Euro/bl

Moyennes mensuelles

Sources: EIA and Oil Daily

Brent Crude Oil

IEA and OPEC long-term outlooks

(1) Including biofuel consumption and bunkers in the case of the IEA(2) Including biofuels and processing gains(3) including NGLs, GTLs and extra-heavy crudes in the case of OPEC

  IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 OPEC World Oil Outlook 2012

  (New Policies Scenario) (Reference Case)

(in mmbd) 2011 2020 ê 2010 2020 ê

Global Demand(1) 88.8 96.6 +7.8 87.0 96.9 +9.9

Global Non-OPEC Supply(2) 52.2 58.9 +6.7(4) 52.3 58.6 +6.3(4)

OPEC Non-Crude Supply(3) 6.4 8.8 +2.4 5.0 7.6 +2.6

Call on OPEC Crude 29.3 29.8 +0.5 29.3 30.9 +1.6

N13-02.06

4) Main contributors to Non-OPEC Supply Growth (mmbd) 

 

     

  2011 2020 ê

USA 8.1 11.1 +3.0

Brazil 2.2 4.0 +1.8

Canada 3.5 4.9 +1.4

Kazakhstan 1.6 2.1 +0.5

Colombia 0.9 1.2 +0.3

mmbd

Sources: IEA (Oil Market Report), OPEC (World Oil Outlook) and Nalcosa’s estimates

OPEC Capacity

Demand for OPEC-12 Oil

Demand for OPEC-11 Oil

mmbd

Iraq

The call on OPEC-11 oil is entering a significant long-term decline

N13-02.07

World gas demand will be drivenby continued rapid expansion in Asia

N13-02.08

Source: IEA WEO New Policies Scenario

(in bcm) 2010 2025 ê

Non-OECD           China 110 390 +280     India 64 116 +52     Other Asia 219 295 +76 Total Asia 393 801 +408     Middle East 376 538 +162     Africa 103 153 +50     Russia 466 508 +42     Other Non-OECD 372 472 +100 Total Non-OECD 1'710 2'472 +762 OECD           USA 680 736 +56     Europe 569 619 +50     Other OECD 348 441 +93 Total OECD 1'597 1'796 +199

Total World 3'307 4'268 +961

Trends in international LNG Trade

N13-02.09

2010 2015 2020 2025

Qatar 76 Qatar 103 Australia 110 Australia 115

Indonesia 31 Australia 60 Qatar 105 Qatar 105

Malaysia 30 Indonesia 30 Nigeria 38 USA 50

Australia 25 Malaysia 30 Russia 35 Canada 40

Nigeria 24 Nigeria 30 Algeria 30 Nigeria 40

Trinidad 20 Algeria 25 Malaysia 30 Russia 40

Algeria 19 Trinidad 20 USA 30 Algeria 35

Russia 13 Russia 15 Indonesia 28 Mozambique 35

Oman 11 USA 15 Canada 25 Malaysia 30

Others 51 Others 52 Trinidad 17 Indonesia 25

        Mozambique 15 Trinidad 15

        Others 30 Others 35

  300   380   493   565

Globalisation does not meanLNG prices would collapse from current levels

N13-02.10

Conclusions

• La nouvelle donne de l’industrie pétrolière et gazière comporte des éléments rassurants et des motifs de préoccupation.

• Eléments rassurants :- Capacité d’adaptation de l’industrie au nouvel environnement- Progrès technologiques- Prix du pétrole assurant l’équilibre offre/demande à long terme- Eclipse de la théorie du «peak oil»

• Motifs de préoccupation :– Extrême volatilité des cours– Financiarisation des marchés pétroliers– Indécision sur la protection de l’environnement– Excédent de capacité OPEP /«Peak demand»– Incertitude sur les prix du gaz exporté

N13-02.11