International perspectives on energy prices - gas pricing ... · Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14...

London

Houston

Washington

New York

Portland

Calgary

Santiago

Bogota

Rio de Janeiro

Singapore

Beijing

Sydney

Moscow

Astana

Johannesburg

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

International perspectives on energy prices - gas pricing in a world of $60/bl crude IFIEC Europe – Energy Forum 2015 Matthew Monteverde 4 June 2015

Commodity prices in abstract

Okt 01 Okt 04 Okt 07 Okt 10 Okt 13

Index: October 2001 = 100, adjusted for inflation

Commodity prices have declined

NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE

US shale gas

NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE Henry Hub

German power and the Energiewende

NBP API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE DE Power Henry Hub

UK gas prices exposed to global market conditions

API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE NBP DE Power Henry Hub

Crude prices held firm before collapse

NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Gold Ethylene NWE Brent WTI

Crude prices held firm before collapse

NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Gold Ethylene NWE Brent WTI

Rare earths – Chinese law (and law breaking)

NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Brent

WTI Gold Ethylene NWE Neodymium oxide Terbium oxide

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Gas prices in a low-oil price world

European price update

Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

NBP forward month prices collapse — twice

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

European gas price update

01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

Added political risk premium on low

prompt prices

GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

prompt prices End-of-year price collapse

GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

First-quarter rally on lower Russian

receipts, storage

GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

First-quarter rally on lower Russian

receipts, storage

Wider Q2-Q3 spreads than in 2014

European price update

Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

€/MWh

European front-month gas prices

ES AT CZ Gaspool NBP NCG

Peg N Peg S PSV TTF Zee PolPX

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

European gas supply

European supply sources

Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

mn m³/d

Western European supply — monthly through mid-May 2015

NL/UK production NO RU N.Africa LNG

Russian supply shortfall

Yamal -3.2bn m³

Wysokoje -3.7bn m³

Velke Kapusany -15.1bn m³

Drozdwicze -2.5bn m³ Beregdaroc +0.1bn m³

Tietierowka -0.1bn m³

Winter 2014-15 v winter 2013-14

Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

mn m³/d

Russian deliveries to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary v nominations

Drozdowicze Tietierowka Wysokoje Kondratki - Yamal Velke Kapusany Beregdaróc

Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

mn m³/d

Russian deliveries to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary v nominations

Drozdowicze Tietierowka Wysokoje Kondratki - Yamal Velke Kapusany Beregdaróc

Russian under-deliveries to Italy

Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

mn m³/d

Italian deliveries v nominations

Nominated Delivered

Russian under-deliveries to Italy

Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

mn m³/d

Italian deliveries v nominations

Nominated Delivered

Mrz 11 Mrz 12 Mrz 13 Mrz 14 Mrz 15

mn m³/d

Supply shortfall

Nominated

Larger European stockbuild required

Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Aggregate European gas storage

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Oil indexed contract prices

Oil indexed price evolution

Okt 04 Okt 05 Okt 06 Okt 07 Okt 08 Okt 09 Okt 10 Okt 11 Okt 12 Okt 13 Okt 14

€/MWh

Various oil-indexed contract formulations

Oil index

€/MWh

Oil-index range Oil index

€/MWh

Oil-index range Oil index TTF m1

Okt 04 Okt 05 Okt 06 Okt 07 Okt 08 Okt 09 Okt 10 Okt 11 Okt 12 Okt 13 Okt 14 Okt 15 Okt 16 Okt 17

€/MWh

Historic TTF m1

€/MWh

Historic TTF m1 Dec-13 TTF curve

Forward pricing in December 2013

€/MWh

Historic TTF m1 Dec-13 TTF curve

May-15 TTF curve

Forward pricing in May 2015

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

A narrower price channel

Mai 15 Nov 15 Mai 16 Nov 16 Mai 17

€/MWh

Oil index and market prices

EU oil index TTF m1 TTF forward

Forward price channel relatively narrow

€/MWh

Fuel switching prices remain below the market

EU oil index TTF m1 TTF forward Fuel switching 60pc/30pc

Fuel switching?

€/MWh

Asia-Pacific oil index and EU prices

EU oil index TTF m1 TTF forward Japan LNG (oil index) Fuel switching 60pc/30pc

Asian LNG backstop?

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

LNG prices and changing supply patterns

Asia-Pacific LNG price formation

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

$/mn Btu

Japanese LNG customs prices

Term: Abu Dhabi, Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Russia, US

Spot: Algeria, Belgium, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, France, Norway, Nigeria, Peru, Papua

New Guinea, Spain, Trinidad, Yemen

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

$/mn Btu

Japanese LNG customs prices v modern oil index

Jan-04 Feb-06 Mrz-08 Mai-10 Jun-12 Aug-14 Sep-16 Nov-18 Dez-20

$/mn Btu

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Okt-13 Feb-14 Mai-14 Aug-14 Dez-14 Mrz-15

$/mn Btu

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Okt-13 Feb-14 Mai-14 Aug-14 Dez-14 Mrz-15

$/mn Btu

Japanese LNG customs prices v modern oil index v ANEA

Gap between Atlantic and Pacific prices is closing

Jan-04 Mai-05 Sep-06 Feb-08 Jun-09 Nov-10 Mrz-12 Aug-13 Dez-14

$/mn Btu

Japanese oil index v NBP

Oil index NBP

European LNG receipts

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

‘000t

Monthly LNG imports

BE FR PT ES UK NL IT

European LNG receipts

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

‘000t

Monthly LNG imports

(12) (10) (8) (6) (4) (2) - 2 4 6 8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$/mn Btu

NBP-Asia-Pacific oil index

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Japanese LNG supply

Japanese long-term supply contracts

1969 1972 1976 1980 1984 1987 1991 1995 1999 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017 2021 2025 2029 2032 2036 2040 2044 2047

mn t/yr

Known long-term supply contracts

Osaka Gas Tokyo Gas Tepco Tohoku Electric Chubu Electric

Chogoku Electric Hiroshima Gas Japex JX Mitsubishi

Kansai Electric Nihon Gas Kyushu Electric Nippon Steel Sendai

Saibu Gas Shikoku Electric Shizuoka Gas Toho Gas

1969 1972 1976 1980 1984 1987 1991 1995 1999 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017 2021 2025 2029 2032 2036 2040 2044 2047

mn t/yr

Known long-term supply contracts v gas demand

Osaka Gas Tokyo Gas Tepco Tohoku Electric Chubu Electric

Chogoku Electric Hiroshima Gas Japex JX Mitsubishi

Kansai Electric Nihon Gas Kyushu Electric Nippon Steel Sendai

Saibu Gas Shikoku Electric Shizuoka Gas Toho Gas Gas demand

1969 1972 1976 1980 1984 1987 1991 1995 1999 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017 2021 2025 2029 2032 2036 2040 2044 2047

mn t/yr

Known long-term supply contracts v gas demand

Australia Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Oman PNG Portfolio

Qatar Russia Trinidad UEA USA USA (new) Gas demand

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Coal, China and the slow collapse of prices

Benchmark coal prices

Oct 2001 Dec 2005 Feb 2010 Apr 2014

Coal prices have fallen since early 2011

API 2 API 4 API 6

Jul 14 Aug 14 Okt 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mrz 15 Apr 15

Northwest European prices and key events

Cif ARA

Chinese import tax, ash and sulphur

limits

Cif ARA

limits Chinese trace element limits

Cif ARA

Brent crude bottoms out at $45/bl

Cif ARA

Colombian night-time rail freight

suspension

Brent crude bottoms out at $45/bl

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Overcapacity and a change in China

Will overcapacity come out of the market?

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Price and historic export growth

Export growth rate API2 annual average

Chinese demand growth has slowed

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

pc annual growth

mn toe

Historic demand and growth

Growth rate Chinese demand

Coastal power station coal burn is down

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Coal burn at major coastal plants

2013 2014 2015

The Chinese economy is shifting

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Value added, pc of GDP

Service sector larger than manufacturing for the first time in 2013

Agriculture Industry Services, etc.

Economic output and coal consumption

0 250 500 750 1.000 1.250 1.500 1.750 2.000

GDP (trillion USD)

mn toe coal

2013 coal consumption and GDP

S. Africa

0 125 250 375 500 625 750 875 1.000

GDP (trillion USD)

mn toe coal

S. Africa

0 125 250 375 500 625

GDP (trillion USD)

mn toe coal

India China

S. Africa

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500

GDP (trillion USD)

mn toe coal

Historic Chinese coal consumption and GDP

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500

GDP (trillion USD)

mn toe coal

Historic Chinese coal consumption and GDP

6x GDP per 500mn toe coal

consumption

16x GDP per 500mn toe coal

consumption

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Conclusions

Copyright notice Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, DEWITT, FMB, FUNDALYTICS, METAL-PAGES, JIM JORDAN & ASSOCIATES, JJ&A, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Limited. Disclaimer All data and other information presented (the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

Matthew Monteverde VP — Generating Fuels

Email:

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