International perspectives on energy prices - gas pricing ... · PDF file Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13...

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Transcript of International perspectives on energy prices - gas pricing ... · PDF file Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13...

  • London

    Houston

    Washington

    New York

    Portland

    Calgary

    Santiago

    Bogota

    Rio de Janeiro

    Singapore

    Beijing

    Tokyo

    Sydney

    Dubai

    Moscow

    Astana

    Kiev

    Porto

    Johannesburg

    Market Reporting

    Consulting

    Events

    International perspectives on energy prices - gas pricing in a world of $60/bl crude IFIEC Europe – Energy Forum 2015 Matthew Monteverde 4 June 2015

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    Commodity prices have declined

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    US shale gas

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE Henry Hub

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    German power and the Energiewende

    NBP API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE DE Power Henry Hub

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    UK gas prices exposed to global market conditions

    API 2 Ammonia NOLA Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE NBP DE Power Henry Hub

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    Crude prices held firm before collapse

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Gold Ethylene NWE Brent WTI

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Okt 01 Okt 04 Okt 07 Okt 10 Okt 13

    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    Crude prices held firm before collapse

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Gold Ethylene NWE Brent WTI

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    Commodity prices have declined

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Brent WTI Gold Ethylene NWE

  • Commodity prices in abstract

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Okt 01 Okt 04 Okt 07 Okt 10 Okt 13

    I n d e x : O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1 = 1 0 0 , a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n

    Rare earths – Chinese law (and law breaking)

    NBP DE Power API 2 Ammonia NOLA Henry Hub Brent

    WTI Gold Ethylene NWE Neodymium oxide Terbium oxide

  • Market Reporting

    Consulting

    Events

    Gas prices in a low-oil price world

  • European price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

    p / t h

    NBP forward month prices collapse — twice

    Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

    Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

    Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

  • European gas price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

    p / t h

    Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

    GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

  • European gas price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

    p / t h

    Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

    GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

    Added political risk premium on low

    prompt prices

  • European gas price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

    p / t h

    Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

    GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

    Added political risk premium on low

    prompt prices End-of-year price collapse

  • European gas price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

    p / t h

    Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

    GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

    Added political risk premium on low

    prompt prices End-of-year price collapse

    First-quarter rally on lower Russian

    receipts, storage

  • European gas price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    01 Mai 01 Aug 01 Nov 01 Feb 01 Mai 01 Aug

    p / t h

    Forward price ranges – 2014-15 v2015-16

    GY 13-14 Range GY 14-15

    Added political risk premium on low

    prompt prices End-of-year price collapse

    First-quarter rally on lower Russian

    receipts, storage

    Wider Q2-Q3 spreads than in 2014

  • European price update

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

    € / M W h

    European front-month gas prices

    ES AT CZ Gaspool NBP NCG

    Peg N Peg S PSV TTF Zee PolPX

  • Market Reporting

    Consulting

    Events

    European gas supply

  • European supply sources

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 Mai 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Mai 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Mai 15

    m n m ³ / d

    Western European supply — monthly through mid-May 2015

    NL/UK production NO RU N.Africa LNG

  • Russian supply shortfall

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Yamal -3.2bn m³

    Wysokoje -3.7bn m³

    Velke Kapusany -15.1bn m³

    Drozdwicze -2.5bn m³ Beregdaroc +0.1bn m³

    Tietierowka -0.1bn m³

    Winter 2014-15 v winter 2013-14

  • Russian supply shortfall

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    m n m ³ / d

    Russian deliveries to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary v nominations

    Drozdowicze Tietierowka Wysokoje Kondratki - Yamal Velke Kapusany Beregdaróc

  • Russian supply shortfall

    Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

    -250

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    Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

    m n m ³ / d