Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

01/05/2023

1

Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

Claude Rochet

Professeur des universités

LAREQUOI Université de Versailles Saint [email protected]

Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016

mailto:[email protected]

01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016

2Summary

What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not

Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach

us? Towards an organic and sustainable

innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia

01/05/2023

3Summary

What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not

Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach





4

Top down mono functional cityTogliatti (Russia):

Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP.


Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities

Decreasing returns due to specialization in primary activities and localization in remote places

• 335 mono villes (31% des villes)

• 16 Mons hab. (25% pop. Urbaine)

• Taux urbanisation: 75%

01/05/2023

6

What a smart city can’t be A collection of « smarties » A techno centric city A city without past

= EU ideology!

A deterministic system


Smart city = Integrated complex system


7 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and

why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach



8Cities scaling laws


Densité

Pote

ntie

l d’

inte

rcon

nexi

ons

Y=x2 Loi de Metcalfe

But…..

Distance

Inte

rcon

nexi

ons

réel

les Lois de Von Thünen Tobler

Exte

rnal

ités +

et _

Taille

But…..

TailleNo

mbr

e de

ville

sLois de Marshall West Bettencourt

Lois de Zipf

Combining these laws:

01/05/2023Size x Number of cities

Conn

ectio

ns x

wea

lth

New town

Clustering medium size cities

New townDefining the perimeter and the« in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities’system design


10

Good and bad complexity

At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable

Bad complexityGood complexity

Growing size

Grow

ing

com

plex

ity

E. g. Detroit, Russian monocities…


11

A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem

Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.

The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.

Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions change: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991)

Modeling emergence implies:1. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can

take. 2. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.

12

A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems

01/05/2023


Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems)

Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems)

- Social sciences- Big data- Autopoeisis

- Multi-agents modeling

The key of the success is here…

… while business is there

Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis



why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past

teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable



14

Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities

Common good

Vivere politico

Economic welfare

Pivate good


15Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolution

Novogorod veche

Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече

01/05/2023

16Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis

« Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. »


01/05/2023

18

Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopeosis

First order cybernetics (Forrester): The city as a self regulating system… ... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio)

The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human dissipative systems

The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws

There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size and its complexity....

... But there is a good and a bad complexitySéminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016


19

A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate


20First order cybernetics city

The myth of the super mind and perfect control

IBM at Rio do Janeiro

01/05/2023

21Autopoeisis: Why and How?

An autopoeitic system is “”a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana

Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactionsSéminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016


22

Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face

with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis

considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment".

C. Gershenson


23

Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people”

NO! An evolutionary process

Integration process is bottom-up…… based on ordinary interactions

We must understand how ordinary people behave

Q: Is there an architect with a master plan?





innovating city Methodology and examples (good and

bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia

Strategic Analysis

26/01/2016

25

Why building a city & what are the strategic goals?

Who are the stakeholders?

What are the generic functions to be performed

by a smart city?

With which organs? Technical devices, software…

With which smart people?

Conception, metamodel framework, steering

Subsystems and processes

People and tools

Why designing this ecosystem?Who will live in the city?What are its activities?

How the city will be fed?Where the city is located ? (context)

What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how

do they interact?

With which organs and ressources?

How people will interact with the artifacts?

How civic life will organize?

01/05/2023

26

Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)

Economy: An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities

is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)

FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.

“State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)

“The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrow down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)



27


Resilience: A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with

a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience. Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic

properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.

E.g. Christchurch (NZ)

26/01/201627

01/05/2023

28


Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)

The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan)

In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel).

The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016


29

Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and complex systems

Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.

Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree

30The false green cities

26/01/2016

Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem

Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris

socio-ethnic greenwashing


31The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore


32Singapore vs. Norilsk

Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital…

Depressing monoindustry A city thought from the beginning as a smart nation

01/05/2023

33New paradigms in public decision making

Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale

Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state

Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)

« In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015



34

A paradoxical research question:Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?

At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore, it’s not really a democracy.

At date, we don’t know large system that have developped spontaneously self organizing properties .

Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry

A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institution from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge.

We have a lot of reference of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died.

Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy


Training of actors,

Knowledge transfer to SME

Smart Cities Pilot Projects

Social capabilities

improvement

System modeling and

integration capacities

Investments and reference

realizations

Territories development

Technology transfer

Absorptive capacities

Organic development

R&DActions Realizations Strategic assets

Autopoeisis

37

Merci!

26/01/201637

Thank you!

Спасибо

Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

Science

Transcript of Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles