Le régionalisme contribue-t-il au développement économique ?

Olivier CadotPrésentation à Rennes, le 14 mars

2008

1.Le régionalisme : Une brève rétrospective

0

5

10

15

20

25

Not

ifica

tion

Notified and Active Now Inactive

Accords notifiés à l’OMC

Le plat de spaghettis

Congo, R.D.

Swaziland

Djibouti Sudan Eritrea Ethiopia

Madagascar

Mauritius

BotwanaLesotho

Mozambique

South Africa

COMESA

SADC

SACURIFF

IOC

Afrique de l’est

Namibia

Angola

BurundiZambiaTanzania

Malawi

ComorosSeychelles

Zimbabwe Kenya

RwandaUganda

IndiaBangladeshNepalBhutanSri LankaMaldives

GeorgiaUkraineMoldova

Russia China

Belarus

IranTurkmenistanAfghanistan

Turkey Azerbaidjan

KazakhstanKirghizistanTadjikistan

Ouzbekistan Pakistan

GUUAM

Central Asian Cooperation Organization

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

Shangaï Cooperation Organization

Source: Raballand 2005Note: Countries in bold are WTO members

Le plat de spaghettisAsie centrale

Organization for Economic Cooperation

Eurasian Economic Community

L’UE : Un accord à part1.1 La première vague•Les accords sud-sud de première génération•Tiers-mondisme : des substituts au système multilatéral•Substitution aux importations et autres politiques

-

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

40'000

45'000

1962-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Mill

ions

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Pour

cent

ag

Valeur des exportations a/% commerce mondial

Part de la CEDEAO dans le commerce

L’ALENALe MERCOSURLes accords africains

1.2 La deuxième vague

2. Régionalisme et multilatéralisme2.1 Qu’est-ce que le multilatéralisme ?

Entropie: La première vague de libéralisation et son échec 1820 1875 1913 1925 1931 1950

France R 12–15 20 21 30 18Russia 45–55 0 0 5 n.a. 23Allemagne 8–12 4–6 13 20 21 26A-H R 15–20 18 16 24 18EU 35–45 40–50 44 37 48 14Italie n.a. 8–10 18 22 46 25Russie R 15–20 84 R R RJapon R 5 30 n.a. n.a. n.a.Belgique 6–8 9–10 9 15 14 11Danemark 25–35 15–20 14 10 n.a. 3PB 6–8 3–5 4 6 n.a. 11Espagne R 15–20 41 41 63 n.a.Suède R 3–5 20 16 21 9Suisse 8–12 4–6 9 14 19 n.a.

1846 : Abrogation des Corn Laws en Angleterre

1860 : Traité Cobden-Chevalier. Quarante traités bilatéraux signés par la GB, 25 par la France.

1865 : Victoire du nord dans la guerre de Sécession et retour du protectionnisme aux EU

1879 : Bismark fait passer une loi économique protectionniste au Reichstag avec les voix des conservateurs et du centre

1884 : Tarif Méline et « loi du cadenas »

2.3 Comment le « M » voit le « R »2.3.1 L’article XXIV et la clause d’habilitation

L’article XXIV du GATT

La clause d’habilitation

Case 1: Neither creation nor diversion

Producers A B CDomestic price 15.0 18.0 20.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 15.0 21.6 24.0With tariff only on C 15.0 18.0 24.0

Case 2: Trade creation

Producers A B CDomestic price 17.0 15.0 16.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 17.0 18.0 19.2With tariff only on C 17.0 15.0 19.2

Case 3: Trade diversion

Producers A B CDomestic price 13.0 11.0 10.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 13.0 13.2 12.0With tariff only on C 13.0 11.0 12.0

Case 1: Neither creation nor diversion

Producers A B CDomestic price 15.0 18.0 20.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 15.0 21.6 24.0With tariff only on C 15.0 18.0 24.0

Case 2: Trade creation

Producers A B CDomestic price 17.0 15.0 16.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 17.0 18.0 19.2With tariff only on C 17.0 15.0 19.2

Case 3: Trade diversion

Producers A B CDomestic price 13.0 11.0 10.0Duty-paid price in A

With 20% MFN tariff 13.0 13.2 12.0With tariff only on C 13.0 11.0 12.0

3. A quoi sert le régionalisme ?3.1 Beaucoup de libre-échange, c’est bien ; mais un peu ?

Country C

Country B

FTAimports

imports

home production competes withimports from B and C

Country A

Country CCountry C

Country BCountry B

FTAimports

imports

home production competes withimports from B and C

Country ACountry A

02'0004'0006'0008'000

10'00012'000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995

Launch of NAFTA negotiations

NAFTA put intoforce

Amount of FDI intoMexico, million dollars

02'0004'0006'0008'000

10'00012'000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995

Launch of NAFTA negotiations

NAFTA put intoforce

Amount of FDI intoMexico, million dollars

Le régionalisme Nord-sud: verrouillage des réformes dans le sud

… et convergence? En Europe, oui.

Year Poland Czech Rep. Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania1989 9.02 5.02 5.02 16.34 12.80 4.381992 15.86 10.74 10.74 20.19 12.07 27.44 9.89 0.75 0.49 2.141993 18.56 12.41 13.45 20.25 11.88 29.74 13.61 4.64 2.84 6.581994 18.50 12.52 12.03 17.52 8.98 28.00 11.44 3.86 5.00 10.341995 15.35 10.76 9.28 12.90 6.45 25.45 11.25 6.39 4.91 12.941996 15.76 10.60 10.17 13.16 5.73 29.34 14.72 6.91 5.86 14.771997 11.76 8.48 9.35 10.12 5.16 27.15 13.28 6.23 6.68 16.551998 8.65 5.66 5.61 7.01 4.28 24.33 14.32 8.65 7.09 16.701999 6.97 4.45 5.40 5.74 3.25 23.44 14.68 12.73 6.93 14.452000 4.90 3.50 4.43 4.36 2.57 15.95 13.09 2.55 5.65 10.03

Détournement de trafic organisé: les quotas “OPT” de l’UE

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2Tariff Preference

NA

FTA

utilizationrate

11. Textile

19. Arms14. Jewelry

8. Leather goods

17. Transport Eq.

20. Misc.

12. Footwear

7. PLastics

3. Fats and Oils

6. Chemicals13. Stone & Glass

4. Food. Be. & Tobacco9. Wood

18. Optics

1615 Base metal10

1

5

1. Live animals2. Vegetables5. Mineral Products10. Pulp & paper16. Machinery &El.eq

2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2Tariff Preference

NA

FTA

utilizationrate

11. Textile

19. Arms14. Jewelry

8. Leather goods

17. Transport Eq.

20. Misc.

12. Footwear

7. PLastics

3. Fats and Oils

6. Chemicals13. Stone & Glass

4. Food. Be. & Tobacco9. Wood

18. Optics

1615 Base metal10

1

5

1. Live animals2. Vegetables5. Mineral Products10. Pulp & paper16. Machinery &El.eq

2

Des préférences délaissées… donc peu attractives

01 Chapter:

Live animals

0101 Heading:

Iive horses, asses, mulles and hinnies

0102 Heading:

Live bovine animals

0103 Heading:

Live Swine

0104 Heading:

Live sheep andcoats

0105 Heading:

Live poultry

010110 Subheading:

Purebred breedinganimals

010190 Subheading:

Others

01011010 Item:

Males

01011020 Item:

Females

01019010 Item:

Horses

01019020 Item:

Asses

01 Chapter:

Live animals

0101 Heading:

Iive horses, asses, mulles and hinnies

0102 Heading:

Live bovine animals

0103 Heading:

Live Swine

0104 Heading:

Live sheep andcoats

0105 Heading:

Live poultry

010110 Subheading:

Purebred breedinganimals

010190 Subheading:

Others

01011010 Item:

Males

01011020 Item:

Females

01019010 Item:

Horses

01019020 Item:

Asses

Le système harmonisé de classification des biens

HS code Product description 200911 ORANGE JUICE, FROZEN, SWEETENED OR NOT 200919 ORANGE JUICE, OTHER THAN FROZEN, SWEETENED OR NOT 200920 GRAPEFRUIT JUICE, SWEETENED OR NOT 200930 CITRUS FRUIT JUICE FROM A SINGLE FRUIT, NESOI

HS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO) 200911-200930

HS code Product description 080510 ORANGES, FRESH 080520 MANDARINS (INC TANGER ETC) & CITRUS HYBR FR OR DRI 080530 LEMONS AND LIMES, FRESH OR DRIED 080540 GRAPEFRUIT, FRESH OR DRIED 080590 CITRUS FRUITS, INC KUMQUATS, NESOI, FRESH OR DRIED

A change to subheading 200911 through 200930 from any other chapter, except from heading 0805

Faire du jus d’orange avec des courgettes

HS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO)

...of subheading 511111 or 511119, if hand-woven, with a loom width of less than 76cm, woven in the United Kingdom in accordance with the rules and regulations of the Harris Tweed Association, Ltd, and so certified by the Association

...certain textile products

Cotonou Convention (EU)

Cotonou ConventionHS codes/group Applicable Product-specific Rule of Origin (PSRO)

It was at least 50% owned by nationals of an EU or ACP state (although under certainconditions leased or chartered vessels can qualify);

Fish

It was registered in an EU or ACP state ;It sailed under the flag of an EU or ACP state ;

The vessel’s captain, officers and at least 50% of its crew were nationals of an EU orACP state ;

The chairman and the majority of the board members of the company owning the vessel were nationals of an EU or ACP state

NAFTA

Avantage comparé

TissageTeinture

CoupeAssemblage

Intensif en

travail

Intensif en infrastruct

ureEgrenage

Filature

Production de coton

DistributionExpédition

-500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 500

Imports Exports

Clothing

Textiles

Le saucissonnage des filières

Intensif en

ressources nat.

Intensif en capital

010

020

030

040

050

0

Mill

ion

USD

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Exports to other countries Exports to the EUN

Exports to the U SA Net Exports

010

020

030

040

050

0

Mill

ion

USD

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Exports to other countries Exports to the EUN

Exports to the U SA Net Exports

1997 2003Botswana 7.1 7.1 89 0.0Kenya 31.3 187.8 94 34.8Lesotho 86.5 392.4 95 28.7Mauritius 184.4 269 50 6.5South Africa 70.9 231.8 54 21.8

AGOA util.

rate 2003 (%)

Annual growth 1997-2003

Exports to the US, HS61-62

Préférences pour les PMA:

Des effets qui peuvent être spectaculaires…

1997 1999 2001

Number of Employees 46,000 136,000 191,000

Skilled workers (%) 51% 54% 46%Unskilled workers (%) 49% 46% 56%Average years of education 8.5 9 7.9Temporary employment (%) 34% 39% 20%

Workers below the povery line (%) 50% 39% 42%Average earnings $37 $39 $50 of skilled workers $41 $52 $76 of unskilled workers $32 $29 $33

Average age 36 34 32Female laborforce (%) 76% 75% 80%

Workers' Localization by Region (%) Urban Antananarivo 49% 58% 44% Rural Antananarivo 9% 32% 41% Other 42% 10% 25%

… et bénéficier aux plus vulnérables

-

100'000

200'000

300'000

400'000

500'000

600'000

700'000

800'000

900'000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD

x 1'00

0

Export. 15 PMA d’ASS vers les Etats-Unis

Export. 15 PMA d’ASS vers l’UE

Export. Lesotho + Mada vers les Etats-Unis

Export. Lesotho + Mada vers l’UE

Début AGOA

Début TSA

AGOA vs. TSA: Des performances contrastées