Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar...

Coal & CCS in the energy mix

Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétiqueA.-Tristan Mocilnikar

Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès duDélégué Interministériel au Développement DurableCharbon et développement durable

Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006

Laboratoire d’Economie de la Production et de l’Intégration

Internationale

département Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement

FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF

2Contact : [email protected]

May the 18th presentation

Energy Demand

Climate change issues

It is not sustainable

Efficient coal and CCS

CCS going forward

mailto:[email protected]





Energy Demand


IEA forecasts a more than 50 % increase at the 2030 horizonOil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy

demand

Coal

Oil

Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

1971

44%

16%25%

12%

35%

25%

22%

11%5%

Source: IEA

World Primary Energy Demand(IEA Reference Scenario)







Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region

Almost all the increase in production to 2030

occurs outside the OECD (source: IEA)

3%12%

85%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1971-2002 2002-2030

Mto

e

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

31%

10%

59%

share of total increase (%)







Meet basics needs

32 million

1,041 million

522 million

39 million

1.634 billion people without electricity in developing countries






0

3

6

9

0 2 4 6

Needs in 1990 …

Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants

Conso

mm

ati

on

par

hab

itant

en

tep

Amérique du Nord

Amérique latine

Europe de l’Ouest

Chine …

Asie du SudAfriqueMoyen-Orient

Russie-PECO

Australie Japon

Source : « World Energy Assessment », UNDP, UNDESA, CME, 2001

9 Gtoe

Energy demand

0

3

6

9

0 2 4 6 8 10

Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants

Conso

mm

ati

on

par

hab

itant

en

tep … to 2050

Amérique du Nord

Amérique latine

Europe de l’Ouest

Chine … Asie du SudAfrique

Moyen-Orient

Russie-PECO

Australie Japon …to 20 Gtoe

Energy demand


Energy use with GDP growth







Primary sources of world electricity generation

in 2002 : 16,000 TWh

In IEA 2030 reference scenario : 32,000 TWh

– i. e.: + 100 %

A DOUBLING OF COAL







Annual Average U.S. Energy Prices for the Electric Power Sector

Dollars per million Btu Nominal Dollars Source: Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2006

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

10,00

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

2007

Coal Heavy Fuel Oil Natural Gas







Power production in USA

Source: DOE/EIA 2006







The Impact on Investment2004-2030

The power sector will need $10 trillion, over 60% of total energy-related investment

T&D

Power Generation

Electricity 61%

Coal 2%

Oil 19%

Gas 18%

54%

46%

Total investment: 17 trillion dollars

WEOSource: IEA







4700 new GW to be installed before 2030

Inde

Chine

USA+Canada

UE à 15

Yo be built by 2030 (AIE)

Capacity as of 1999 (GW)

55 %






Climate change issues


1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

x 107 Annex I

Year

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

x 107 Non-Annex I

Year

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

19000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Em

issi

ons

in T

g C

O2

eq

.

19000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Em

issi

ons

in T

g C

O2

eq

.

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

IPCC SRES A1B scenario

Energy / GHG

Energy

25 % Energy







CO2 emissions world wide

Power Gen Coal28%

Industry and other39%

Power Gen Other12%Transport

21%

Power Gen Coal30%

Industry and other34%

Power Gen Other14%

Transport23%

26 Gt of CO2 in 2005 38 Gt of CO2 in 2030(IEA reference scenario)

Electricity accounts for 40% of CO2 emissions related to energy

CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

Coal = 11,5 GtCO2 in 2030 ; + 4 GtCO2

Coal is and should remain 2/3 of CO2 emissions for Power Gen







CO2 Emissions Growth 2004-2030

OECD CO2 emissions growth are about three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but on a per capita basis, OECD emissions will be still two times higher in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

China OECD

Gt

NorthAmerica

Pacific

Europe

0

3

6

9

12

15

ton

nes p

er c

ap

ita

2004

2030

2004

2030

WEO






It is not sustainable


“This is NotSustainable!”

Source : Claude Mandil, directeur exécutif de l’AIE

World Bank Energy Week, Washington, 7 mars 2006







Substantial global fossil resources

GasGas

CoalCoal

2,000 bnboe2,000 bnboe4,800 bnboe4,800 bnboe

conventionalconventional

yet to findyet to find

unconventionalunconventional

Key:Key:

Source: BP estimates

OilOil

2,000 bnbls2,000 bnbls

R/P = 41 yrs

R/P = 67 yrs

R/P > 200 yrs







Resources scarcity cannot solve by itself

climate change issues

Past emissions

Potential






Efficient coal and CCS


31 - 36 %

40 - 45 %

Mid-term: Investment in coal can deliver efficiency enhancements

Feasible today

Possible tomorrow

1950 - 1970 1970 - 1990 1990 - 2010 > 2010

~+30%

25 - 31 %

50, 150, 300 300, 600 up to 1000 Unit size in MW 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 1 2 3 4 5

Source : Euracoal







World Electricity Power generated GHG emissions generation TWh GtCO2

Business as usual Best available clean

Future best

(32%) technology available clean

(45%) technology

(55%)

2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

Coal 6 681 10 374 21082 6 585 11 357 23 080 9 440 16 412 8 355 13 428 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 1 000 942 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 7 714 10 874 1 773 4 571 6 444 4 571 6 444 4 571 6 444

Nuclear 2 632 2 394 12 879 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 16 929 30 466 15 011 23 798 13 926 20 814

Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean

technology

Source : vision paper DIDD







World Electricity Generation

Power generated TWh

GHG emissions GtCO2

2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 Coal 6 681 10 374 21 082 6 585 8 355 13 428 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 5 473 7 053 1 773 3 172 4 109 Nuclear 2 632 4 635 16 700 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 12 527 18 479

Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean technology +

gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario








World Electricity Generation

Power generated TWh

GHG emissions GtCO2

2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 Coal 6 681 10 374 21 082 6 585 4 637 1 477 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 5 473 7 053 1 773 3 172 4 109 Nuclear 2 632 4 635 16 700 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 8 809 6 527

Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean technology + capture and sequestration (90% rate of

success) + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario








Main conclusions of the global vision paper

The full deployment of Ultra Low emission technologies is therefore required, if one want to keep coal running and limit GHG emissions.

• Those « ultra low emission » technologies require technologies such as CCS

We need to accelerate the deployment of « ultra low emission » coal technologies

But, to arrive to such a result, it is necessary to increase efforts in several fields.

• Existing technologies at the laboratory stage must be transferred to demonstration phase.

• An economic framework must be built in order to make profitable their deployments.

• The questions of acceptability & environmental impacts must be addressed (now).






CCS going forward


Several winning technologies to capture CO2

Availability

?

Now

2015-2020

2010-2015

Others

Solvents

Chemical

Looping

Oxy-firing

IGCC with

capture2010-2015

Source : ALSTOM







Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system

Source : STATOIL







STORAGE POTENTIAL FOR CO2IN SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF THE

WORLD

Source: J. Bradshaw and T. Dance, 2004: Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world’s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies, September 5-9, 2004, Vancouver, Canada.







Significant WW R&D programs

Most technologies have been tested in labs

R&D funding from institutions and companies

Demonstration projects (20 to 50 MW) ongoing or under preparation– Vatenfall in Germany, Total in France, FutureGen project

in the USA …

International Cooperations– IPCC (2005) special report on CCS – Carbon Storage Leadership Forum (CSLF) – IEA GHG : IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

(Implementing Agreements are open to Non-OECD countries)







Political level

G8 Gleneagles plan of action

China Summit (5th September 2005) : Joint Declaration on Climate Change & Energy

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate







Significant European R&D programs

substantial global fossil resourcesIncaCO2

COACH

ACCSEPT

Cooperation

Trust







Many french corporations involved







A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (1) Bassin Parisien

Oil fields : greenGas fields : red

Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1







Parentis

Lacq

A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (2) Bassin Aquitain

Oil fields : greenGas fields : red








France has a long and successful experience

in underground storage

Etrez

Tersanne

Manosque I et II

Izaute

Lussagnet

ChémeryCéré-La-Ronde

Soings-en-Sologne

St Illiers

St Clair/Epte

Gournay/Aronde

Germigny-ss-Coulombs

Beynes

Landes de Siougos

Manosque Geosel

Hauterives

Alsace Sud

Trois-Fontaines

Lavera-Martigues

Lavera Martigues

Petit Couronne

(P)

Donges

(P)

Cerville-Velaine

Sennecey-le-Grand

Grand-Serre

Viriat

Chémery-Ouest

(P)

Gargenville

(P)

(P)

Gaz NaturelGaz NaturelConcessions en cours : En aquifèreEn cavités salinesEn gisements déplétésDemandes de concessionEn aquifèreEn cavités salinesAutorisations de recherchesEn aquifèreEn cavités salines

Hydrocarbures liquides : concessionsHydrocarbures liquides : concessionsEn cavités minées ou minesEn cavités salines

Produits chimiques de base : concessionsProduits chimiques de base : concessionsEn cavités salines

10 Gm3

(500 gas storage sites in the world = 164 Gm3)








ANR projects launched in 2005

TransCO2

Capture & Transport

Storage

CAP-CO2amines, adsorbates

CLC-MATchemical looping

GeocarboneINJECTIVITE CO2 injection

GeocarboneINTEGRITE confinement

GeocarboneMONITORING monitoring

GeocarbonePICOREF Sites evaluation

GeocarboneCARBONATATION Long term behaviour

CO2-SUBLIMantisublimation

8,3 M€








Future Demonstration Projects in France

““PICOREF”PICOREF”A CCS project supported by the French Network of Oil & Gas Technologies (RTPG):•understanding the CO2 fate during and after injection•looking for an experimental site in the SE of Paris Basin (Deep saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields)

““Lacq” Project Lacq” Project announced by Total announced by Total in Sept 2005 (50M€)in Sept 2005 (50M€)

Courtesy of Gestco project








CO2 Storage Operation by Gaz de France

RECOPOL (EU)K12B (CRUST)

SNOVHIT







CCS by Total







IFP and CO2

Domestic actions The CO2 Club The PICOREF project

European projects CO2 from capture to storage: IFP as leader of the European CASTOR project IFP on the front line of the European fight against CO2: FP5 (RECOPOL, ICBM, SACS, NGCAS, CO2NET) and FP6 (CASTOR, ENCAP) projects Europe in the international CO2 capture and storage development concert: the INCA-CO2 project

International programs CSLF GHG (IEA)

Research projects conducted in partnership with industrialists: JIPs (Joint Industry Projects)

JIP WIN CO2 JIP CO2 SECURE







BRGM involvement in CO2 projects

BRGM stands for Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières

JOULE II project (1993-1995) "The underground disposal of carbon dioxide":

SACS (Phase 1) (1998-1999) and SACS2 (Phase 2) (2000-2002)

GESTCO (2000-2003)

NASCENT (2001-2003)

WEYBURN (2001-2004)

CO2STORE (2003-2006)

CO2NET (2001-2002) and CO2NET2 (2003-2005)

SAMCARDS (2002-2003)

PICOR (RTPG Subproject A) (2002-2004)

RTPG Subproject B (2004)

RTPG Subproject C (2004)

PICOREF (2005-2006)

CASTOR (2004-2008)

CO2GEONET (2004-2009)

InCA-CO2 "International Co-ordination Action on CO2 Capture and Storage" (2004-2007)

ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking project) (2004-2009)

ICSFFEM (CO2 emission reduction in phosphate production) (2002-2003)

SEQMIN (CO2 sequestration by mineral carbonation) (2004)

ProCO2 (Processes for management of industrial CO2 emissions) (2005°






Coal & CCS in the energy mix

Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétiqueA.-Tristan Mocilnikar

Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès duDélégué Interministériel au Développement DurableCharbon et développement durable

Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006

Laboratoire d’Economie de la Production et de l’Intégration

Internationale

département Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement

FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF

Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A.-Tristan Mocilnikar...

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