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Agriculture and Development in Africa

Agriculture et Développement en Afrique

Foreword ............................................ i

Introduction ....................................... iii

L’agro-industrie : planche de salut de

l’Afrique pour sortir ses populations de la

famine et les mettre à l’abri

de la malnutrition /

Agro-industry: Gateway For Hope of Africa

to Save Its Peoples From Famine and

Shelter Them Against Malnutrition

Presentations:

Agriculture for Development in Africa:

Options and Way Forward

P. Anandajayasekerm ............................ 2

The World Food Crises: Origins, Impacts

and Remedies Available to Africa

Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere ......................... 21

Africa is Hungry – Which Policies Can

Ensure Durable and Irreversible Food

Security?

Mafa E. Chipeta ..................................... 29

Why African Agriculture Failed Its Primary

Mission: That of Nourishing the African

Populations?

Menghestab Haile .................................. 36

Contribution:

Eastern Africa and Soaring Food Prices: Let

Calm Logic Guide Response Mafa E. Chipeta ..................................... 53

A grant from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to support the project is gratefully acknowledged.

Nous remercions le Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement (PNUD) de

son soutien financier pour la réalisation de ce projet.

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i

Foreword

The current food crisis has spared no part of the world. Rich and poor nations alike are facing the consequences and everyone is asking the same questions: What is the root cause of the problem? How do we address the problem? What do we do to avoid its recurrence? A series of Summits dedicated to the issue have been held at regional and global level, yet the problem persists. In any case, no one expects a quick fix to the problem. The worrying aspect of this problem is that it

threatens to reverse the little gains that poor nations, particularly African countries, have recorded in their pursuit of attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We have seen images of demonstrations on our television screens. These could lead to much deeper social unrest with severe security implications, especially where peace is fragile.

Analysts have assessed the situation and gave several explanations to the cause of the problem. On the supply side, low investment in agriculture, low productivity and high energy and transportation costs are key reasons. Also, the fact that bio-fuel production is increasingly competing with production of staples puts a lot of pressure on the latter. On the demand side, changing patterns and higher levels of consumption, as well as speculative activity have been given as causes. Issues such as climate change and conflict threaten to exacerbate the already dire situation.

Focusing on Africa, it is clear that policies imposed on the continent by the Breton Woods Institutions and development partners have failed. Under the structural Adjustment Programmes of the 1980s, Africa was told to downsize the public sector and withdraw government support for agriculture. Africa was told to concentrate on the cultivation of cash crops and import our staples since it was cheaper to import these from abroad. Africa did just that. Well, it‟s not because Africa could not make its own decisions, but because Africa did not have a choice at the time. With mounting economic difficulties at the time, the budget support that came with “compliance” was paramount. The irony about this whole issue is that the very partners that dictated such policies have continued to subsidise their farmers before, during and after that period. To date, this continues. The European Union spends billions of dollars annually on its Common Agricultural Policy, which leaves no chance for poor African farmers to compete. In other words, the playing field continues to be uneven.

Well, Africa is facing the consequences today. This is no time to play the blame game. Rather, it is clear that the situation is desperate and therefore, we must find lasting solutions to the problem. A key lesson we have learned from the aforementioned is that Africa must devise policies suited to it and avoid “borrowing” Western policies. Agriculture must be given the attention it deserves, given its importance in terms of GDP contribution, employment and foreign exchange earnings. The leadership of the continent must create the enabling environment for the sector to be attractive. The private sector should be encouraged to participate actively, but for that to succeed, Government must make the requisite investment and create the right policies. Small-scale farmers need support and dependence on rain-fed agriculture must be a thing of the past. Farmers need to be protected and markets created for their produce. Massive investment in research is needed to increase agricultural productivity.

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The problem of the current food crisis cannot be addressed by individual countries. It will require concerted effort at regional and continental level. This is where the role of regional integration sets in. Africa has adopted the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) as a framework for addressing the problem of agriculture on the continent. Member States of the African Union have committed themselves to invest 10% of national budgets to agriculture. Abiding by these commitments will go along way in developing agriculture on the continent. Through integration, bigger markets are created, joint infrastructure projects, such as trans-boundary road projects, are implemented, and joint efforts towards peace and security are more effective. All these are basic conditions necessary for enhancing agricultural production and marketing. Furthermore, through initiatives such as the proposed African Investment Bank, as provided for in the Constitutive Act of the African Union, resources necessary for investment in agriculture and other important areas can be mobilised and made available to Africans.

Food is a basic human right, to which every citizen must have access. After all, man cannot work on an empty stomach. It is one of the basics that must be available and affordable to all and sundry. The current crisis hence threatens the very existence of our society. Africa has the land, the people and the resources and there is no reason it cannot address the problem sooner rather than later.

Dr. Maxwell M. Mkwezalamba

Commissioner for Economic Affairs

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Introduction

L’agro-industrie : planche de salut de l’Afrique pour sortir ses populations de

la famine et les mettre à l’abri de la

malnutrition

L‟Afrique a faim. Son agriculture a failli à sa

première mission : celle de nourrir convenablement les populations africaines et les mettre à l‟abri de la malnutrition. La contre-performance de l‟agriculture africaine a conduit la quasi-totalité des pays du continent à importer massivement pour nourrir les populations urbaines et rurales, ce qui a été, entre autres, à l‟origine des déficits structurels et chroniques de leur balance des paiements. Le sous-développement de l‟agriculture africaine, qui ne date pas d‟aujourd‟hui, résulte des politiques agricoles adoptées dès l‟aube des indépendances, privilégiant les cultures d‟exportation au détriment des cultures vivrières, dans le seul souci d‟alimenter les caisses de l‟État en devises étrangères.

Aujourd‟hui, la problématique du développement de l‟agriculture africaine rebondit, sous l‟effet de la flambée des prix des produits alimentaires de première nécessité que l‟on enregistre à travers le monde et dont l‟impact est difficile à contenir par les pays africains. Aujourd‟hui, l‟on met en relief des facteurs tels que les bio-carburants ou les agro-carburants; la rétention des offres asiatiques de riz pour anticiper la hausse éventuelle de la demande locale; la poussée des prix du pétrole ou des hydrocarbures; les subventions agricoles dans les pays riches; l‟augmentation des taxes à l‟exportation des produits alimentaires, etc.. Et pourtant, certains analystes

Introduction

Agro-Industry: Gateway for Hope of

Africa to Save Its Peoples From Famine

and Shelter Them Against Malnutrition

Africa is hungry. Its agriculture has failed in its first task: that of feeding appropriately the African peoples and shelter them against malnutrition. The counter performance of African agriculture has led almost all countries of the Continent to import food in large quantities to feed the urban and rural peoples, which was, among others, the root cause of the structural and chronic balance of payment deficit. The under-development of African agriculture, which is not from today only, is the result of agricultural policies adopted since the early days of independence, encouraging export crops to the detriment of food crops with the only concern of filling the State coffers with foreign exchange.

Today, the problem of the development of African agriculture surfaces again with the spiraling food prices which characterise the whole world, whose impact is difficult to be contained by the African countries. Today, we are highlighting factors such as bio-fuel or agro-fuel; the retention of Asian offer of rice to anticipate the possible increase in local demand; the soaring price of oil or hydrocarbons; the agricultural subventions granted in the rich countries; the increase in export taxes on food products and so on. And yet, some analysts consider that these factors, which have been so much denounced, explain only the tiny part (3%) of the present food crisis in the poor countries. The food crisis in Africa, therefore, has its roots in the agricultural policies, which todate, have

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estiment que ces facteurs, tant décriés, n‟expliquent qu‟une infime portion (3%) de la crise alimentaire actuelle dans les pays pauvres. La crise alimentaire en Afrique s‟explique principalement par les politiques agricoles qui ont jusque-là marginalisé les cultures vivrières. Ces politiques ont orienté l‟essentiel de la structure des incitations à la production agricole (prix aux producteurs, prix des produits phytosanitaires, politiques de commercialisation, etc..) vers les cultures pérennes, destinées exclusivement à l‟exportation. Ceci a conduit les fermiers et les paysans africains à s‟adonner entièrement à la promotion de ces dernières cultures. Et les conséquences immédiates qui en découlent sont légion : coexistence conflictuelle des deux types de cultures au niveau des espaces cultivés; pénuries alimentaires fréquentes, tendances affirmées des villes qui nourrissent les campagnes, particulièrement pendant les périodes de soudure; importations massives de denrées alimentaires qui bouleversent, dans certains cas, les habitudes alimentaires; dépendance alimentaire grandissante de l‟extérieur, etc..

L‟agriculture africaine se trouve donc dans une situation alarmante. Sa branche exportatrice, qui a été privilégiée pendant des décennies, a du plomb dans l„aile pour des raisons qui tiennent essentiellement à la chute de la demande extérieure. Et comme corollaire à une telle situation, l‟agriculture africaine côtoie paradoxalement la faim et la famine et n‟arrive même plus à remplir sa principale fonction supposée de pourvoyeuse de fonds. Cette situation déplorable a été exacerbée par les institutions de Bretton Woods depuis les années 80, à la faveur des politiques d‟ajustement structurel (PAS) que ces institutions ont initiées et imposées aux pays africains. Ces politiques, entre autres, recommandaient aux dirigeants africains,

marginalized food crops. These policies have guided the essential aspects of the structure of the agricultural production incentives (price to producers, price of phytosanitary products, marketing policies…), to perennial crops destined exclusively for export. This has led the African farmers and peasants to devote themselves entirely to the promotion of these latter crops. And the immediate consequences are many: conflicting co-existence of these two types of crop in the cultivated areas; frequent food shortages, trends affirmed in the cities which feed the rural areas, particularly during shortage periods; massive importation of food stuffs which upset, in some cases, the food habits; growing food dependence on the outside world and so on.

African agriculture, therefore, finds itself in an alarming situation. Its export branch, which had been encouraged over decades, is hard hit due mainly to the fall in external demand. And as a corollary to such a situation, African agriculture coasts, paradoxically, along hunger and cannot even fulfill its supposedly main function of generating funds. This deplorable situation has been exacerbated by the Bretton Woods Institutions since the 80s in favour of Structural Adjustment Policies (SAP) which they initiated and imposed on African countries. These policies, among others, recommended to the African leaders, in the name of trade liberalization and comparative advantages, to import all the foodstuffs whose local production was expensive. Our countries, therefore, were

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des avantages comparatifs, d‟importer toutes les denrées alimentaires dont la production domestique était jugée onéreuse. Nos pays étaient donc invités, au nom des principes sacro-saints de libéralisation économique, à importer massivement pour assurer leur sécurité alimentaire. Assurer sa sécurité alimentaire par l‟importation a conduit l‟Afrique à absorber les excédents agricoles des pays riches, en décourageant parallèlement les producteurs locaux. Le concept de sécurité alimentaire, dans le contexte néo-libéral, s‟opposait donc à celui de l‟autosuffisante alimentaire, qui figure en lettres d‟or dans le Plan d‟action de Lagos qui invite les pays africains à endogéniser tous les mécanismes d‟alimentation des populations africaines. La stratégie de l‟auto-suffisance alimentaire appelle donc les pays africains àtout mettre en œuvre pour garantir leur sécurité alimentaire par le biais du développement de l‟agriculture locale, ce qui est de nature, entre autres, à réduire significativement la dépendance extérieure de notre continent.

À la lumière de ce qui précède, il apparaît extrêmement urgent pour l‟Afrique de revisiter profondément toute sa politique agricole non seulement pour accroître la production, surtout vivrière, mais aussi pour nourrir ses populations et participer efficacement à l‟échange international de produits alimentaires. Toutefois, pour assurer le succès d‟une telle stratégie, il est extrêmement important de développer, en aval de l‟agriculture, un secteur manufacturier capable de valoriser et de transformer les produits agricoles. Car une politique agricole autonome et diversifiée, en l‟absence de structures industrielles appropriées en aval, ne peut aboutir aux résultats escomptés. La complémentarité entre agriculture et industrie trouve donc tout son intérêt. C‟est le lieu de rappeler le rôle crucial de l‟agro-industrie.

called upon to import, in the name of the sacrosanct principle of economic liberalization, in large quantities to ensure their food security. To ensure food security, through imports, led the African countries to absorb the agricultural surplus of the rich countries and at the same time discourage local producers. The conceptof food security, within the new liberal framework, was contrary to food self sufficiency, which was written in golden letters in the Lagos Plan of Action, which called upon the African countries to give an endogenous touch to the food mechanisms of the African peoples. The food self-sufficiency strategy, therefore, summons the African countries to do everything to guarantee their food security through the development of the local agriculture which, among others, is likely to reduce significantly the external dependence of our continent.

In the light of the foregoing, it seems extremely urgent for Africa to revisit thoroughly its entire agriculture policy for not only to increase production, particularly food production, but also to feed its peoples and participate effectively in the international trade of food products. However, to ensure the success of such strategy, it is extremely important to develop down the line of agriculture, a manufacturing sector capable of developing, indeed processing the agricultural produce. An autonomous and diversified agricultural policy, in the absence of appropriate downstream industrial structures, cannot produce expected results. Therefore, here lies the interest in the complementarity between agriculture and industry. It is appropriate to recall here the crucial role of agro-industry.

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Pour mémoire, il convient de noter que l‟analyse économique définit l‟agro-industrie comme «le stade où l‟économie agro-alimentaire s‟industrialise, se capitalise et s‟internationalise». L‟économie agro-alimentaire constitue toute la chaîne de production, de transformation, de commercialisation et de restauration. Un pays donné est doté d‟une agro-industrie digne de ce nom lorsque tous les maillons de la chaîne de l‟économie agro-alimentaire sont industrialisés. En Afrique, ces maillons demeurent encore essentiellement concentrés dans les unités socio-économiques de base où les outils de production et de transformation sont toujours rudimentaires. Pour pourvoir nourrir convenablement les populations et les mettre à l‟abri de la malnutrition, l‟économie agro-alimentaire africaine doit s‟extraire des unités socio-économiques de base pour s‟industrialiser.

Par ailleurs, dans la perspective de la réhabilitation de l‟agriculture africaine, de nouvelles pistes méritent d‟être explorées. Ceci amène à poser une série de questions. L‟agriculture africaine peut-elle se développer à travers sa structure actuelle : petites exploitations, moyens de production vétustes ou rudimentaires? La voie d‟une agriculture capitaliste de grandes exploitations modernisées et motorisées ne semble-t-il pas la piste idoine pour relancer l‟agriculture africaine? En d‟autres termes, l‟agriculture africaine peut-elle se développer sans être privatisée? Ne vaut-il pas mieux, en privatisant la terre, que les nombreux paysans, principaux acteurs de cette agriculture, deviennent des ouvriers agricoles des grandes exploitations privatisées? La perception d‟un salaire mensuel ou annuel pour couvrir les besoins quotidiens ne vaut-il pas mieux

As a reminder, it should be noted that economic analysis defines agro-industry as “the stage when the agro-food economy is getting industrialized, capitalized and internationalized”.The agro-food economy is the entire chain of production, processing, marketing and catering. A given country, therefore, has an agro-industry worthy of this name only when all the links of the agro-food economy chain are industrialised. In Africa, the essential links still remain in the basic socio-economic units, where the production and processing tools are still rudimentary. Consequently, to be able to feed properly the peoples and protect them against malnutrition, the agro-food economy of Africa should extricate itself from the basic socio-economic units to become industrialised, indeed, to possess all the characteristics of the agro-industry.

Furthermore, in the prospect of rehabilitating the African agriculture, new areas should be explored. This leads to a number of questions. Can the African agriculture develop through its present structure: small farms, obsolete or rudimentary production means? Does the path of a capitalist agriculture of big modern and mechanized farms not seem the best way to boost the African agriculture? In other words, can the African agriculture develop without being privatised? Is it not better, by privatizing the land, that the numerous farmers, main actors of this agriculture, become agricultural workers of big privatised farms? Is the receipt of a monthly or annual salary, to meet the daily needs, not better for the farmers, who for a long period of time are confined to small

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pour les paysans qui, depuis des lustres, sont confinés dans de petites exploitations qui n‟arrivent même pas à leur garantir l‟autosubsistance qui demeure pourtant leur finalité principale? Le paysan devenu ouvrier, doté d‟un lopin de terre pour produire ce dont il a besoin et compléter ainsi son pouvoir d‟achat, ne serait-il pas mieux outillé, voire mieux armé face à la pauvreté et à la misère?

Ces nombreux questionnements (la liste n‟est pas exhaustive) méritent des réponses, si l‟on veut poser un bon diagnostic de la situation agricole de l‟Afrique, afin de lui administrer une thérapie efficace et durable. Selon l‟adage, les progrès sont l‟accomplissement des utopies. Il est donc extrêmement urgent pour les analystes ou experts des questions agricoles en Afrique de proposer à ce continent une véritable politique de développement rural dont les axes se fonderaient sur les réponses aux questions déjà évoquées, qui sont loin d‟être des chimères. Un pan important de l‟autonomie, voire de l‟indépendance de l‟Afrique, dépend dans une très large mesure de la capacité de son agriculture à nourrir ses populations.

holdings, which cannot not even guarantee them self-subsistence, which is their main final aim? Will the farmer, turned worker, with a plot of land to produce what he needs to supplement his purchasing power, not better equipped, indeed, better armed to face poverty and misery?

These numerous questions (which are not exhaustive)deserve to be resolved if we want to have a proper diagnosis of the agricultural situation in Africa in order to provide an effective and lasting solution. According to the saying, progress is the realisation of utopias. It is, therefore, extremely urgent for the analysts and experts in agricultural matters in Africa to propose to this Continent a genuine rural development policy whose axis will be based on the replies to the questions already mentioned, which are far from being wild dreams. An important part of the autonomy, indeed, of the independence of Africa, largely depends on the capacity of its agriculture to feed its peoples.

Dr René N’Guettia Kouassi Directeur des Affaires économiques

Director of Economic Affairs

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“Agriculture and Development in Africa”

« Agriculture et Développement en Afrique »

2

Agriculture for Development in Africa: Options and Way Forward

P. Anandajayasekerm1

1.0 Introduction

Agriculture is pivotal to the realization of the Millennium Development goals in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as it contributes 70% of employment, 40% of exports and one-third of Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Enhancing African agricultural productivity is a prerequisite for eradicating African poverty and associated food and nutrition insecurity. However, over the past four decades, the international consensus on the importance of agriculture in economic development has varied from very high (until 1980s), to very low (1990s) to the current rediscovery. Now it has been increasingly recognized that in the 21st century, for the agriculture based countries, agriculture continues to be a fundamental instrument for sustainable development and poverty reduction (World Development Report, 2008).

I was asked to make a presentation on the theme “Agriculture and Development in Africa.” In this presentation, I would like to touch on the following: the concept of agriculture and development versus agriculture for development; evidence on the grounds; reasons for poor performance; emerging challenges; recent optimism and options for moving forward.

2.0 Agriculture for Development

Without doubt, agriculture is a critical productive sector, and engine of growth for most countries in the region, accounting for between 30 and 55% of GDP. Moreover, agriculture provides

1 Manager , Capacity Strengthening Unit,

International Livestock Research Institute

(ILRI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

“employment” for over 70% of the rural people, and typically accounts for 40% of export earnings. It is also the case that many people in urban areas live on some kind of agriculture-related activities. Traditionally, agricultural sector contributes to: (i) food supply for the growing population and food security; (ii) livelihoods for the rural population; (iii) the markets for manufactured goods and particularly inputs (backward linkages); (iv) raw materials for agro-processing (forward linkages); (v) foreign exchange through exports and finally (vi) surplus to be reinvested in the rest of the economy. (ECA-OECD Mutual Review, 2005).

In the early days, up to end of 1990s, the commonly used concept was agriculture and development. Here, the explicit goal of the agricultural sector is its contribution to economic growth and is implicitly assumed that economic growth will automatically lead to wider developmental goals. Currently there is growing awareness that economic growth is a necessary condition but not sufficient to achieve the national, regional and global developmental goals. There are countries which have achieved double digits economic growth, but still with high incidence of poverty. Thus, many development practitioners prefer the concept “agriculture for development” where the explicit goals are the broader developmental goals and agriculture is considered as the key instrument to achieve these goals. This concept also recognizes the trade offs between economic growth, poverty alleviation, food and nutrition security and environmental sustainability.

Agriculture contributes to development in many ways (WDR, 2008)

As an economic activity and leading sector for economic growth. As an economic activity, agriculture can

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be a source of growth for national economy, a provider of investment opportunities for private sector; and a prime driver of agriculture-related industries and the rural non-farm economy. In addition to its direct contribution to Gross Domestic Product and employment, and foreign exchange earning, it generates significant multiplier effect through value addition and forward and backward linkages with input and output markets. It is an important source of income for majority of the poor.

As a livelihood. Agriculture is a source of livelihood for the majority of the rural poor. Globally, agriculture provides jobs for 1.3 billion smallholders and land less workers.

As a provider of environmental services. As a major user of the natural resources (land and water), agriculture can create good and bad environmental outcomes. Agriculture contributes to around 30% of green house gas emission thus to global warming). Improper land and water use also could contribute to irreversible damage to the natural resources and the environment. On the other hand, through sequestering carbon, managing watersheds and preserving bio-diversity, agriculture also makes positive contribution to the environment. With rising resource scarcity and mounting externalities, agricultural development and environmental protection have become closely intertwined.

Peace and stability. Good governance, peace, security and political stability are necessary pre-conditions for sustainable growth and development. By providing food for the growing population at an affordable price, agriculture can contribute to

maintenance of food security and political stability.

Given the inter sectoral linkages, managing the connections among agriculture, natural resources conservation and the environment must be an integral part of using agriculture for development.

The role or contribution of the agricultural sector in the economic transformation and overall development is mainly determined by three factors, namely, the relationship between the agricultural sector and other sectors of the economy (the transformation phase in which the agricultural sector finds itself); the way in which agriculture is treated in the political process; and the chosen model to stimulate growth and development (Van Rooyen, 1997). The specific role and scope of agriculture in economic development depends to a large extent on the phase of economic transformation in a country (Johnson and Meller, 1961, Mosher, 1971, Mellor, 1986; Hayamy and Ruttan, 1971; Timmer, 1988). During the economic transformation, a typical agrarian economy passes through four phases. (Timmer, 1988).

Phase 1 – Getting agriculture moving

Phase 2 – Agriculture as the major or key generator of economic growth

Phase 3 – Integrating agriculture into the economy

Phase 4 – Agriculture in industrial economies

Historical evidence clearly demonstrates that it is difficult or impossible to bypass these stages, although, based on the experiences and lessons learned, it is possible to accelerate the process.

The basic transformation in phase 1 requires an adequate system of roads, irrigation, research, extension and some

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Agriculture based countriesMainly SS-Africa

417 million rural people

Transforming countriesMainly Asia, MENA

2.2 billion rural people

Urbanized countriesMainly Latin America

255 million rural people

Ag

ricu

ltu

re’s

sh

are

in

gro

wth

19

90

-20

05

Rural poor/total poor, 2002

Three Rural Worlds

0 100%

80%

0

50%

20%

0 100%

80%

0

50%

20%

form of land reforms which helps to transform and extend low productivity agriculture into a profitable, more intensive agriculture. In phase 2, the state extensively supports farmers through marketing policies such as seasonal finance, input supply systems, creation of reliable local markets buffer stocks, floor prices and other stabilization schemes) in order to bring about effective farmer input demand and surplus production. It is in phase 3 that state begins to withdraw once the basis for effective private market is in place. This development pathway has been exhibited in a number of countries which have successfully transformed agriculture. It is worth noting that the Asian Green Revolution is a state-driven, market mediated and small farmer based strategy to increase national food self-sufficiency in food grains (SIDA, 2006). Often analysts talk about the seed-fertilizer revolution but do not emphasize the consistent role played by the state in this revolution. Pre-mature withdrawal of state can only create confusion giving wrong signals. Strengthening the capacity of the state in its new roles of coordinating across sectors and partnering with private sector and civil society organizations is urgently needed for implementing the agriculture-for-development agenda (WDR, 2008).

The recent World Bank Study (2001), using the contribution of agriculture to GDP and the prevalence of poverty, classified the developing countries into three groups: agriculture based countries; transforming countries and urbanized countries as shown in Figure 1. In the agriculture-based countries, the share of agriculture in the growth is fairly high, and a greater proportion of poor live here. Most of the SSA

countries fall under this category. The emerging conclusion of this study is that in the 21st century, agriculture remains fundamental (key instrument) for poverty reduction, economic growth and environmental sustainability. Thus all current discussions in the development arena is about agriculture as an instrument for economic development.

Figure 1. Three Rural Worlds of Agriculture

3.0 Agricultural Transformation and Prime Movers

As countries achieve higher economic growth and development they move from one category to the other. For example in the recent past, China and India moved from agriculture-based to transforming group while Indonesia moved from transforming countries to urbanized countries group.

Based on past experience, it has been established that five basic prime movers work in tandem to achieve sustainable development.

Technology. New technology for large and smallholder farmers generated from investments in research by the public and private sectors. New

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technologies have to continuously meet the changing needs.

Improved human capital at all levels – professional, managerial, technical and artisans – achieved through investment in schools, colleges and faculties of agriculture, forestry and natural resources as well as on the job training and skills development.

Sustainable growth in physical and biological infrastructure through investments in roads, dams, irrigation systems, grain stores, rural electricity, information systems and large-scale genetic improvements in crops, livestock herds and tree crops.

Effective institutes particularly able to serve smallholder farmers (research, extension, credit, marketing etc).

An enabling political environment, with budgeting commitment to agriculture, and appropriate land reform, pricing, marketing and trade policies to facilitate agricultural growth and food security and development.

In pursuing the agriculture for development strategy, it is important to acknowledge two important characteristics of the prime movers. First, no prime mover on its own can get agriculture to grow on a sustainable basis. The second characteristics of all prime movers is that long-term investment is necessary to strengthen them. This calls for greater commitment by governments for sustainable investment in agriculture.

4.0 Evidence on the Ground

Although there were high expectations from the agricultural sector, the evidence on the ground shows that the SSA countries have not fully exploited the

potentials of agriculture to foster the much needed growth and development.

In almost forty years, SSA has changed its position from a net exporter to net importer of food. There is a massive surge in food imports and the dependency on food aid is on the increase.

SSA is the only region in the world that has not seen increases in per capita food production over the last three decades. The cereal production per capita was lower in 2001 than in 1961.

Poverty is on the increase and by far the highest incidence of under-nourishment is found in SSA.

The long term average food grain yield has been stagnant during Africa‟s 45 years of independence

Investment climate survey show that SSA remains a high-cost, high risk place to do business. Overall, doing business in Africa costs about 20 to 40% more than in other regions of the developing world.

There is a loss of international competitiveness of African traditional export crops over the past 3-4 decades and Africa‟s share in agricultural exports has also fallen significantly over the years.

Only 30% of SSA‟s population has access to an all season weather road – the lowest level in the entire developing world.

SSA is the world‟s most vulnerable region in terms of water availability and food security, and could be severely affected by the consequence of climate change.

Many of the SSA countries have a much higher global poverty index (GPI). This is an equally weighted index

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Agriculture

Non-agriculture

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

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Lowest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest

Expenditure deciles

Exp

enditure

gain

s in

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d b

y 1

% G

DP

gro

wth

(%

)

GDP GROWTH FROM AGRICULTURE

BENEFITS THE INCOME OF THE POOR 2-4

TIMES MORE THAN GDP GROWTH FROM

NON-AGRICULTURE

WDR 2008

based on under nourishment, under weight and child mortality.

There are also positive aspects that actually make a case for additional and sustainable investment in agriculture.

Empirical analysis of different countries shows a positive interrelationship between agriculture development and overall economic growth.

GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2 to 4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Benefits from GDP Growth in Agriculture

Published estimates of nearly 700 rates of return on R&D and extension investments in the developing world average around 43% per year. Studies conducted in SSA (Thirtle et al 2002; Oehmke et al, 1997; Anandajayasekeram et al 2001) also confirmed these high rates of returns. These are outstanding returns to investment by any criterion.

Available evidence also suggests that increasing yield/productivity is an effective way of reducing rural poverty. A recent study (Thirtle et al. 2002) concluded that a one% yield increase reduce the number of people living under $1 per day by 6 million and the

per capita cost of poverty reduction was lowest in SSA compared with Asia and Latin America.

5.0 Reasons for Poor Performance1

Despite the efforts made by the national governments, regional bodies and the development partners over the past several decades, the African agriculture has performed very poorly over the years. A number of factors have contributed to this poor performance.

High diversity in the production system, making adoption of technologies from outside world more difficult. For the SSA context the technology transfer model (TOT) was focused to be inappropriate.

Low priority and gross under investment in agriculture and agricultural research

Misguided/inappropriate policies and strategies. This includes

- Focus on one prime mover at a time,

- Weak integration of agricultural and other sectoral policies

- Urban bias

- Excessive agricultural taxation

- Emphasis not on staple food but on export crops

- Attempts to jump stages of development and

- Cross border tariffs and NTB

Ignoring the lessons from history

Lack of innovation culture and

Conflicts

1 This topic will be covered by another speaker

in the panel; hence covered briefly in this

paper.

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There are two important aspects of the past experience that is worth noting. The first one is that in terms of drivers of change, there is an element of rational learning certainly from large scale failures (Integrated Rural Development Projects; T & V extension system) but very little learning from past success stories in Africa and elsewhere. The second is that governance seems to evolve with economic progress (induced institutional innovation) suggesting more emphasis should be put on small but targeted strategic improvements in governance and enabling condition rather than on wholesale governance reforms (Hazell, 2005). Major studies such as WDR (2008) and IAASTD (2008) also concluded that technology development needs to be embedded in a broader development and innovation system context.

6.0 Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

In the recent past, the agricultural sector has witnessed a number of changes in the context in which it operates. These changes pause challenges as well as offers new opportunities. Some of the key challenges facing the agricultural sector in SSA are discussed in this section.

6.1 Emerging Food and Energy Crisis

In the recent past, global food prices are increasing at an unprecedented rate and the analysts say that they will continue to remain high for a considerable period; gone are the days of low food prices.

Both the demand side and supply side factors contributed to the current price crisis. The demand side factors include: the economic growth and the associated change in life style and eating habits in many countries; diversion of food crops (maize, sugarcane) for making bio fuels:

declining world stock piles; the financial speculation in commodity markets (a collapse of the financial derivatives market); and of course the increase in population (although at a slower rate). The supply side factors include: increased fuel and fertilizer prices and the associated increase in cost of production (and low input use); biofuel subsidies pushing production towards biofuel rather than food; idle crop land under a conservation programme; export bans and tariffs by many grain exporting countries; crop short falls from natural disasters and the long term effects of climate change; trade liberalization making many developing nations depend on food imports (subsidized) which are cheaper; loss of crop lands due to mainly soil erosion, water depletion and urbanization and finally declining investments in agriculture.

The ongoing rise in fuel prices are pushing countries towards bio-fuels. Few of the current biofuel programmes are economically viable and many pose social (rising food prices) and environmental (deforestation) risks. A better understanding of the impact of bio fuels is a must in determining energy options.

World cereal and energy prices are becoming increasingly linked. A worrisome implication of the increasing link between energy and food prices is that high energy price fluctuations are increasingly translated into high food-price fluctuations. The impact of cereal price increases on food-insecure and poor households is quite dramatic. It has been projected that the current food crisis could push 100 million people deeper into poverty.

The long-term solution to the current

crisis is increasing the supply capacity a positive supply response. However, this response for better price incentives

8

depends on public investments in markets, infrastructure, institutions and support services.

In order to address the current food crisis, countries need a comprehensive plan to ensure long-term food availability and security as well as short term relief. They also must invest now and for the longer term in problem solving agriculture.

6.2 Recent Technological Advances in Bio-Technology and ICT

Biotechnology has provided unparallel prospects for improving the quality and productivity of crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry. Conventional biotechnologies have been around for a very long time, while genetic modification (GM) technologies have emerged more recently. GM technologies are making rapid progress worldwide. Africa lacks capacity and resources to move biotechnology research forward. Countries have not yet developed proper legislation frameworks on bio-safety of GM organisms.

(Eicher, Maredia and Sithole-Niang 2006).

Bio safety is a highly technical field, which typically requires high initial investments for building the necessary human resource capacity and institutional infrastructure (including laboratories and green houses for risk assessment or testing and identification of genetically modified organisms). Bio safety issues transcend national boundaries. Transboundary movement of GMOs across porous borders is going to be a formidable challenge which may require policy interventions and coordinations (PAPA, 2008).

There is general consensus that both transgenic and conventional breeding will be needed to boost crop and

livestock productivity during the next 50 years (Science, March 2008). However the low public investment in biotechnology and slow progress in regulating possible environmental and food safety risks is restraining the development of GMOs that could help the poor. Improving the capacity of the public sector R & D organizations to assess the risks and benefits to harness and deploy new agricultural technologies is very important.

The revolution in technologies information and communication and increased access to them in developing countries is enabling a variety of new approaches to capacity building and knowledge sharing. Exploitation of these opportunities require additional investments.

6.3 Climate Change

To address the expected climate change challenges and impact, R & D need to play a major role in increasing the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable groups in different regions. The climate change could create changes in the geographical production patterns, as well as deterioration of natural resource base due to scarcity of water and rising temperature. Pressure on resources will lead to degradation of land, water and animal genetic materials in both the intensive and extensive livestock systems. Climate change will also affect parasites like the tsetse fly and parasitic diseases such as malaria.

With the increased risk of droughts and floods due to rising temperatures, crop yield losses are imminent. Scientists (IPCC) have concluded that although SSA produces less than 4% of the world‟s green house gases, the regions diverse climates and ecological systems have already been altered by global warming and will undergo further damage in the years head. Sahel and

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other arid and semi-arid regions are expected to become even drier. A third of Africa‟s people already live in drought

prone regions and climate change could put the lives and livelihoods of an additional 75 to 250 million people at risk by the end of the next decades (Africa Renewal, 2007). Climate change will create new food insecurities in the coming decades. Low income countries with limited adaptive capabilities to climate variability and change are faced with significant threats to food security.

It is crucial to mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture and to increase carbon sinks and enhance adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change impacts. Research and development efforts can play a significant role in responding to the challenges of climate change and mitigating and adapting to

climate related production risks.

6.4 Trade, Market Liberalization and the Emerging Agri-food system

Emerging market liberalization, trade reforms and globalization are transforming national and regional economies and the farming sector. The global and national food systems are increasingly being driven by consumer interests, changing consumption patterns, quality and safety concerns and the influence of transnational corporations and civil society organizations.

Although a more open trade regime would benefit the global economy in the area of agriculture, developed countries have been unwilling to make major concessions. There has been some improvement in the terms of trade for commodity exporters as a result of increase in global prices. However, Africa‟s share in global exports, increased from 2.3% in 2000 to 2.8% in 2006. Opportunities exists in the high

value labour intensive products and in selected “niche” markets.

The changes in the emerging food systems such as rapid rise and economic concentration in super markets, need for quality standards; a shift towards non price competition among super market chains, bio-safety issues and the development of new forms of (contractual) relationships between suppliers and buyers offer both challenges and opportunities. They can either squeeze small producers out of certain markets contributing greater poverty and inequality or can offer new sources of income and market improvement in the quality and safety of food. In order to take advantage of this emerging situation, capacity of the all stakeholders along the value chain need to be enhanced. (Tschirley 2006)

There is enormous potential existing for regional integration of African Agricultural Markets, which currently suffers from great fragmentation (ECA, 2002). As Hazel (2005) comments “there is no other agricultural market that offer growth potential on this scale and which could reach huge number of Africa‟s rural poor”. In order to exploit these potentials, there is an urgent need to accelerate regional market integration. Through increased specialization in production and free intra-regional trade, competitiveness and efficiency in resource allocation could be enhanced effectively (ECA, 2002).

Enhancing smallholder participation in high-value and emerging markets requires upgrading farmer‟s technical capacity, risk management instruments and collective action through producer organizations addressing the stringent sanitary and phytosanitary standards in global markets is even a bigger challenge. Small-scale producers also must follow these rules if they are to go ahead. The

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potential for rural economic development would remain very limited if the production and marketing strategies are based exclusively on traditional agricultural production, frequently oriented in selling surplus (supply) rather than market. To make use of the emerging opportunities and make economic progress, rural producers must not only improve quality and offer new products with greater value added, but also need an organizational arrangement that link and coordinate producers, processors, merchants and distributors of specific products. (PAPA News Letter, 2008)

6.5 Emerging Diseases

The incidence and impacts of diseases such as HIV/AIDS and Malaria are well documented. These two diseases and the associated health complications constitute the greatest threat to food security and poverty alleviation in Africa. HIV/AIDS is both a crisis and chronic condition in Africa. It is a crisis because of the speed of the spread of the epidemic and its interactions with other stresses and shocks. It is also a chronic condition because of its impacts most heavily on the most productive sector of the African economies, namely prime-aged adults (Dione, 2004). This also places a heavy burden on the public budget.

Additional threats and challenges are posed by emerging diseases. Approximately 75% of emerging diseases are transmitted between animals and human beings; the increasing demand for meat increases this risk of transmission. Serious socio-economic consequences occur when diseases spread widely within human and animal populations. Even small-scale animal disease outbreaks can have a major economic repercussions in pastoral communities.

Control of zoonotic diseases require training and strengthening of coordination between veterinary and public health infrastructure. Identifying emerging infectious diseases and responding effectively to them requires enhancing epidemiologic and laboratory capacity and providing training opportunities.

Building sustainable capacity for innovations in emerging zoonotic disease surveillance and control by institutionalizing, harmonizing and targeting participatory veterinary public health approaches at national, sub-regional and continental levels is another challenge confronting livestock R & D practitioners.

6.6 Growing need for Intersectoral Linkages

One of the major constraints to getting agriculture moving in SSA is the general lack of comprehensive policies and weak intersectoral linkages. Now there is growing awareness that a number of sectors such as agriculture, education, health, water, and energy are very closely linked. Thus any agenda to transform the smallholder agriculture should follow a multi sectoral approach and capture the synergies between technologies (seeds, fertilizer, livestock breeds); sustainable water and soil management, institutional services (extension, insurance, financial services) and human capital development (education and health) – all linked with market development (World Development Report 2008).

6.7 Changing Expectations of Science and Technology and Innovation

Over the years, there has been a significant change in the expectations of science and technology and innovations, from increasing crop and livestock

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productivity to creating competitive, responsive and dynamic agriculture that directly contribute to the Millennium Developmental Goals. This leads to competitive agriculture which will result in market-driven exchange of both knowledge and products and also viable in domestic, regional and global markets, as well as a responsive agriculture that is addressing multiple sources of small farmers, agribusiness, food insecure customers, wealthy consumers etc. and a dynamic agriculture that is able to adapt to long-term agro- ecological changes, medium term structural changes and short term shocks (Spielman, 2008)

6.8 Globalization of Private Agricultural Research and innovation

In the recent past, there is a trend towards globalization of private agricultural research. Drivers of globalization of R&D are growing markets for agricultural products and agricultural inputs (reduced restrictions on trade in agricultural inputs), new technological opportunities due to breakthrough in bio technology; improved ability to appropriate the gains from innovations, improved policy environment for foreign investments and technology transfer and growth in demand due to increased income and policy changes (Pray, 2008). If carefully nurtured and managed, this may offer additional opportunities for public-private partnership, to mobilize additional resources and to move the poverty reduction agenda forward.

6.9 Greater concern for the Environment

Since the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, it is generally accepted that the environmental agenda is inseparable from the broader agenda of agriculture for development. Both intensive as well as extensive agriculture lead to

environmental consequences. The long- term climate change has its own consequences in the environment. Developing country agriculture and deforestation are also major sources of green house gas emission. The solution to these problems is to seek more sustainable production system and enhancing agricultural potential for provision of environmental service. (World Development Report, 2008). This is crucial when discussing agriculture for development as one of the developmental goals is the sustainability of the natural resources.

6.10 Meeting Commitments and Targets

Over the last several years, countries in the regions are committed to a number of targets and goals. Under the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, targets are set for: reducing hunger and poverty, achieving universal primary education, promoting gender equality, improving maternal health and nutrition, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases and ensuring conservation and the enhancement of basic life-support systems including land, water, forests, biodiversity and the atmosphere. There is increasing evidence to show that we will not meet any of the targets set for 2015. It has been observed that if the prevailing trends persist SSA is expected to miss every single of the 18 targets of the MDGs (Rippin & Bruntrup, 2006). In 2001, 46% of SSAs population lived in extreme poverty. Though this proportion is expected to decline in the coming years the decline can only be described as marginal as the expected value of 38.4% in 2015 is far from the set target of 22.3%. Furthermore, the absolute number of extreme poor is even expected to rise, from 313 million in 2001 up to 340 million in 2015 (World Bank estimates, 2006)

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In 2001, African heads of state adopted the strategic framework to develop integrated socio-economic development framework for Africa – the New Partnership for Africa‟s Development (NEPAD) under the auspices of the African Union (AU). The agricultural agenda of NEPAD is driven by the comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP). This strategy calls for an annual growth rate of 6.5%. At least 10% of the national budget as defined in the Maputo Declaration (February, 2003) should be allocated to agriculture.

The World Development Report (2006) shows that in 2004, SSA achieved as annual growth rate of 4.8%, exceeding the global growth rate of 4.1%. The current growth rate of around 4-5% is well below the 6.5% required to achieve the MDGs.

While a few countries are above the target set in the Maputo Declaration with respect to public expenditure on agriculture (Ethiopia), several (Kenya, Malawi, Zambia) are above 5% and the majority are still below 5% (PAPA News Letter, Feb 2008).

Meeting the MDG targets is going to be a daunting task calling for additional resources and targeted actions.

6.11 Under Investment in Agriculture and Agricultural Research

Public spending on agricultural research as a proportion of agricultural GDP in Africa declined from 0.93% to 0.69% between 1980s and 1990s (ECA-OECD Review, 2005). The current average level of public expenditure to support agriculture is around 4%. CAADP reports estimate that if the MDGs are to be met, 10% of the national budget should go to the agricultural sector and at least 2% of the GDP should go to

national agricultural research and development by 2010. This 10% should be real and not the product of accounting. The broader rural expenditures should not be included in the definition of “spending on agriculture”. Those countries in Asia which have successfully managed to transform their agrarian economies have consistently spent a much higher%age of public expenditure to support agriculture. Publicly funded research will continue to play a key role since the type of agricultural research needed to address poverty involves long lead time, and this requires additional investment.

To sum up, there is a need for agriculturalists to grow intellectually and operationally from a narrow focus on agriculture and technological research and dissemination to a better understanding of rural societies and their needs. There is a need to seek greater understanding of alternative pathways for rural economic development, placing the role of agriculture in perspective, and redefining the role, mission, and strategy of the agricultural institutions and agents as facilitators of rural economic growth. This calls for the change in the mind sets of the change agents and greater flexibility and creativity in defining the agenda as well as in defining new public-private-civil socity partnerships on the basis of whatever is necessary to improve opportunities, productivity and income generation capacity of poor rural households.

7.0 Emerging Optimism

Despite the long-term negative trend in the performance of the agricultural sector in SSA, the recent past has seen a number of convincing evidences and signals that clearly demonstrate that agriculture can work in concert with other sectors to produce accelerated

:

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growth, reduce poverty and sustain the environment. These include:

Recent success in many Asian economies and the economic growth and recovery in some parts of Africa.

Huge unexploited potential for intra-regional trade and the growing demand.

Globalization of private agricultural research and innovation.

Increased number of national and regional frameworks for coordination and the significant progress in regional integration.

Improved opportunities in terms of markets, incentives and innovations.

Increasing willingness of governments, private sectors and donors to invest in agriculture.

Growing awareness on the need for innovation (technological, managerial, organizational, institutional, policy and service delivery) and the use of innovation systems perspective in agriculture.

Considerably stronger civil society organizations and private sector participation in agricultural value chains.

There are a number of success stories where agriculture serves as the basis for economic growth at the beginning of the development process. The special powers of agriculture as the basis for early growth is also well established and well documented. In the recent past, a number of agriculturally based Asian economies (India, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) have managed to achieve sustainable growth through consistent long-term investment in agriculture. Data from rural India (1959–1994) and China (1980–2001) clearly demonstrates

that agricultural productivity growth has contributed to poverty reduction in rural areas (WDR, 2008).

Data in World Development Indicators (2006) show a remarkable recovery in SSA since 2000, as 20 countries in SSA had a growth rate of over 5% in 2004 and fifteen of them are non-oil producing countries. Mozambique and Uganda have managed to achieve a growth rate of over 6%. In West Africa the incidence of malnutrition has been falling dramatically in recent years. The cereals and staple production has broadly kept pace with rapid population growth (from around 85 million in 1960 to around 290 million in 2005) so that consumption level per capita have remained stable in many zones (ECA–OECD, 2005). Production of key export crops in West Africa has dramatically increased accompanied by increased food self-sufficiency and positive spin-offs for livelihoods and poverty reduction. Ghana, for example, managed to reduce rural poverty by almost 50% through increased productivity, higher prices for cocoa, income diversification and remittances.

To meet the growing demand, the cereal production will have to increase by nearly 50% and meat production by 85% from 2000–2030. This, certainly requires a smallholder based productivity revolution centred on food staples but also including traditional and non-traditional export crops. It seems obvious that small farms and food staples cannot be neglected in most African countries. It is the only sector that can ensure that growth is broad based and that can quickly bring down the level of poverty.

8.0 Way Forward

As pointed out by many development practitioners and scholars, agriculture will continue to maintain its strategic

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role in the economy of many SSA countries for foreseeable future, and is the only path way out of poverty. Hence there is an urgent need to focus on getting agriculture moving in order to transform the economies of SSA.

In addition to the CAADP framework, a number of recent studies provide adequate information to help us in developing the future agenda to get agriculture moving in the continent. These studies include: ECA-OECD Mutual Review Report 2005; Inter Academy Council Report, 2004; International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) Report 2007/08; and the World Bank Report on Agriculture, 2008. The purpose of these assessments, geographical coverage and the key recommendations are summarized in Table 1.

It is interesting to note that there is a convergence on the views in terms of the action plan. There are some common elements in these various recommendations. These include:

The key questions that require immediate attention are: What can be done to speed up the growth of agriculture in SSA? And what are the emerging challenges in increasing the contribution of agriculture to rural poverty reduction and development? These two issues are addressed in the next sections.

A smallholder led science and technology strategy to increase productivity and competitiveness.

Building an impact-oriented research, knowledge and development institutions that reflect the needs of the local farmers in identifying new avenues for innovation.

Creating and retaining new generation of agricultural scientists to perform future research.

Enhancing markets, smallholder market access and reducing trade imbalances.

Increased public sector investment in agriculture and agricultural R & D.

Supporting pan African solutions through strengthening regional markets and exchange, rationalizing production, reducing barriers to trade, harmonizing policies and reducing the transaction costs on agricultural trade.

Rehabilitation of degraded land.

Improving governance at national and local level-improving budgetary process, decentralization of decision making, better coordination and rationalization, accountability and transparency; and democratization of decision making processes that harness the voices of historically marginalized and vulnerable groups.

Increased access to assets (land, water, education, health) and services by small holder producers.

Improving the incentive systems through judicial use of subsidies, taxes insurance (to reduce risk and vulnerability).

Sustainable use of the natural resources to provide the environmental services.

What is needed is a more balanced strategy that integrates a suitably ambitious small farm and food staples component, into a new agenda with a greater emphasis on agro-processing led manufacturing sector.

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Table 1. Proposed Strategies for Moving Forward.

Different Studies

IAC 2004 ECA-OECD Mutual Review (2005)

World Development Report IAASTD Report

Geographical Coverage

Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Global (2007/8) Global +Sub-Global (5)1 (2007/8)

Focus of the study/purpose

To explore how science and technology can be more effectively used to improve productivity and food security

To review performance to develop an action agenda

Agriculture for development How can we reduce hunger and poverty, improve rural livelihoods and facilitate equitable, socially environmentally and economically sustainable development through the generation, access to and use of agricultural knowledge, science and technology?

Proposed Strategy/actions

Science and technology strategy

- Technological solutions for priority FS (4)

- Diligent application of range of

Building capacity of the various institutes

Attracting greater private and international investments in

Increased access to assets (land, water, education, health)

Making smallholder farming more productive and sustainable

- Improve price incentives and increase quantity and quality of public investment

The rehabilitation of degraded land

Diversification of SH farming systems

Decrease in the gap between actual and potential crop and livestock yield and productivity

1 In addition to the global assessment, they also conducted five sub-regional studies - Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), East and South Asia and Pacific (ESAP), Latin

America and Caribbean (LAC) Central/West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) and North America and Europe (NAE).

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technology options

Building impact-oriented research, knowledge and development institutions

Create and retain new generation of agricultural scientists

Enhancing markets and effective economic policies

New science and technology pilot programmes

agriculture

Increased spending on agriculture

Supporting pan-African solution

Increased donor commitment to agricultural sector

Better market access to address trade imbalance

- Capacity and technical expertise

- Make product and input markets work better

- Improve access to financial services and reduce exposure to uninsured risks

- Enhance the performance of producer organizations

- Promote innovation through science and technology

Make agriculture more sustainable and a provider of environmental service

Diversifying income sources towards the labour market and the rural non-farm economy

Facilitating successful migration out of agriculture

Overcoming social inequity in trade arrangements

Enhanced governance

Democratization of decision making process-voice of historically marginalized and vulnerable groups

Improved access and availability of resources

Fair compensation to work

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The necessary conditions for a small holder led agricultural growth are well documented and known (see Figure 3)

Figure 3. Necessary Conditions for Smallholder Agricultural Growth

Source: Kisamba-Mugerwa, 2005

The World Development Report (2008) also proposes a strategic agenda with four mutually reinforcing key components (see Figure 4).

These components are:

Improved access to markets and establishing efficient value chains.

Enhancing smallholder competitiveness and facilitating market entry.

Improving the livelihoods in subsistence farming and low-skills rural occupation

Increasing employment in agriculture and rural non farm economy and enhance skills of the rural people.

Such a comprehensive agenda requires a multi sectoral approach, decentralized community driven activities; effective coordination across countries (to exploit the economics of scale and markets); with priority to conserve natural

resources and adaptation to climate change.

Implementing such an agenda also calls for actions and commitments to manage the political economy to overcome the existing policy biases, and under/mis investments in the economy, strengthening governance at all level; strengthening the capacity of the state and civil societies to assume the new roles, improving donor effectiveness as well as reforming global and regional institutes.

30

Necessary Conditions for Smallholder Agricultural Growth

Stimulate

demand for

agricultural

produce

Develop

supply

capacity in

small

holder

production

National Economy (Macro)

Low inflation

Macro economic stability

Good governance

Reasonable prices

Transparent trading system

Household Economy (micro)

Market linkages

Access to finance

Access to insurance

Skill development

Access to technology

(Basic agro-climatic condition)

Assume households

have (greater or

lesser) asset

endowment, e.g.

land, access to water,

indigenous technical

knowledge

Local economy (meso)

Locally responsive support

Services (govt,, private, farmer

organization

Policy

requ

ires

requ

ires

requ

ires Cross-cutting

themes

Strong

banking\financial

system, political

support, security of

land tenure, good

infrastructure, good

communications,

availability of food

reliance.

Issues of concern

HIV/AIDS, GMOs,

vulnerable people

(landless,

workless,

marginalized and

those in marginal

environment

18

Preconditions

Macroeconomic fundamentals Governance

Sociopolitical context

1 Improve market access; establish efficient value

chains

Demand for agricultural and

nonfarm

products

Demand for

agricultural products

2 Enhance smallholder

competitiveness; facilitate market entry

4 Increase employment in agriculture and the rural

nonfarm economy; enhance skills

3 Improve livelihoods in

subsistence agriculture and low-

skill rural occupations

Transition to market

Transition to market

Pathways out of

poverty Farming,

labor, migration

Figure 4. Using Agriculture for Development – A Strategic Agenda

Source: WDR 2008

9.0 Conclusion

In much of SSA, agriculture is the only option to spurring growth, overcoming poverty and to achieve the MDGs. But the accelerated growth requires a sharp productivity increase in the smallholder agriculture. There are new and better opportunities to use agriculture for development. Agriculture growth was the precursor for the industrial revolution in the temperature world in the 18th century, Japan in the 19th century and India and China and many Asian countries in the 20th century. Others

have done it and we should be able to do the same. Agriculture offers great

promise for growth, poverty reduction and environmental services but realizing this promise also requires the visible hands of the state (WDR, 2008). The roles of the state, civil societies and the private sectors are also redefined.

Most countries in SSA have a weak, scientific, organizational institutional foundation for transforming agriculture. This requires long-term investment in all five prime movers. This is what USA did from 1860 to 1912; what Japan did from 1868 to 1914, and what many countries in Asia and Latin America have accomplished over the past 40 years.

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The challenge is now to mobilize African Political leaders and donors to make long-term, investment in the prime movers that are critical for the agricultural transformation. African countries need to think in longer term, mobilize the needed final resources and capacity of the institutes as well as donor support to building a more productive and competitive African agriculture.

Enough is known about what should be done and there is some debate about how we should go about this process (best practices versus best fit). Enough could be learned from past experiences (both within and outside the region). The critical role of the state in getting agriculture moving cannot be under estimated. It is time for action – time to take charge of our own destiny, put our resources where our mouth is, get rid of the blame culture, improve governance and be accountable. There is a need to better coordinate and integrate activities both at the national and regional level.

References

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Dioné, J. (2004), “Why Has Africa Failed to Achieve Food and Nutritional Security?”, A paper presented at the conference on “Assuring Food and Nutrition Security in Africa by 2020: Prioritizing Action, Strengthening Actors, and Facilitating Partnerships”, Kampala, Uganda, April 1-3.

Science (2008), “Dueling Visions for a Hungry World”, Vol. 319, 14 March.

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IAC (Inter Academy Council) (2004), “Realizing the Promise and Potential of African Agriculture”, in Science and Technology Strategies for Improving Agricultural Productivity and Food Security in Africa, IAC, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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Kisamba-Mugerwa, W. (2005), “The Politics and Policies for Smallholder Agriculture”, a paper presented to the Future of Small Farms Research Workshop, Withersdane Conference Centre, Wye, UK, June 26-29.

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for Food, Agriculture and the Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa”, eds O. Badiane and C. L. Delgado. IFPRI, Washington, DC.

Spielman, D. J. (2008), “Innovation Incentives and Indicators: Improving the Analysis of Science, Technology and Iinnovation in Developing – Country Agriculture”, a paper presented at the IFPRI Conference “Advancing Agriculture in Developing Countries through knowledge and Innovation”, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 7 – 9.

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Timmer, C. P. (1988), “The Agricultural Transformation”, In Handbook of Development Economics, Eds H. B. Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan, Vol. 1, Chapter 8. North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Tschirley D. (2006), “Towards Improved Maize Marketing and Trade Policies to Promote Household Food Security in Central and Southern Mozambique”, FANRPAN, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Mchigan, USA.

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Van Rooyen, C. J. (1997), “A Role for the Agricultural Sector in the Southern African Region”, Paper presented at the SADC: FSAU Policy Workshop, Harare, Zimbabwe and at the Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Sacramento, USA.

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World Development Indicators. http://www.worldbank.org/data

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By 2050 Africa’s population

will be 1.96 billion and

greater than the population

of China, most living in urban areas

The World Food Crises: Origins, Impacts and Remedies Available to

Africa

Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere1

1.0 Poverty

Three quarters of the world‟s extremely poor people - 800 million out of 1.16 billion live in rural areas. They depend on agriculture and other rural jobs for their livelihoods (Global Donor Platform for Rural Development, 2007). Poverty tends to be highest among food crop farmers. For instance, about 46 percent of those identified as poor in Ghana are from households for whom food crop cultivation is the main activity (GSS, 2007). Of the 162 million ultra poor (earn less than US$0.50 a day) people in the world, three-quarters of them live in Africa, and sadly, whereas other parts of the world are reducing the size of this group, the numbers are increasing in Africa (Ahmed et al, 2007). The poor have low asset base, they cannot buy inputs for their productive ventures and they cannot afford the necessities of life including adequate food and nutrition, and health care and the cycle of poverty is perpetuated.

2.0 Hunger and Nutrition

The 2007 Global Hunger Index developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) indicates that hunger has assumed an

1 Dr. Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere is the Director

of the International Service for National

Agricultural Research (ISNAR) Division,

International Food Policy Research Institute

(IFPRI).

alarming scale in 36 countries, 25 of them in sub-Sahara Africa. The main cause of hunger is poverty.

Hunger and undernourishment form a vicious circle which is often “passed on” from generation to generation: The children of impoverished parents are often born underweight and are less resistant to disease (von Braun, Arnold and Preub, 2007). Adults who were undernourished as children are physically and intellectually less productive, attain a lower level of education, ultimately earn less money, and are more frequently ill than adults

who enjoy a normal

dietary intake as children.

Indicators of malnutrition

(stunting, underweight,

and wasting) are worse in households and communities where poverty abounds. Research conducted by IFPRI, Cornell University and World Vision in Haiti found that the earlier and the longer food supplementation is provided before the child reaches two years of age, the greater the benefits not only on growth in early life, but also on long-term physical, cognitive, and reproductive performance (Rural21, 2008). Thus the first two years of life are crucial period for a child‟s physical and cognitive development. Any compromise to availability of food for households will therefore have long term consequences for human capacity development.

3.0 Population Growth and Urbanization

Rural poverty will continue to be prevalent than urban poverty during the next several decades (Ravallion, Chen and Sangraula, 2007). However, there is

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the need to watch population increase and urbanization and the changing demand for food. By 2050 Africa‟s population will be 1.96 billion and greater than the population of China. At 4.5 percent rate of urbanization, most of the population will soon be living in the urban areas. With people moving from the countryside to cities demand and consumption patterns are changing rapidly. Quick-cooking and easy-to-prepare products such as rice are used instead of, for example, the traditional millet. Rapid urbanization also entails a growing number of supermarkets as new city dwellers change their consumer patterns. With the growing urban market with more disposable income, standards for safety, hygiene, quality, standardization and food packaging are going up. The ability of the smallholder to meet these changing standards becomes a big challenge.

4.0 The Role of Agriculture

In many parts of the developing world, especially Africa, agriculture plays an important role in national development in terms of employment and contribution to GDP. The sector accounts for between 30-50 percent of the GDP and about 60 percent or more of total employment.

To cope with the demand factors and emerging global issues, actors in the food and agriculture value chain have to find better ways of doing things and come out with better and cheaper products for the market. In other words, there is the need to innovate to meet the challenges of the 21st Century. Throughout the 20th century, improvements in agricultural productivity have lifted millions from poverty and starvation and fueled

economic progress (Wang and von Braun, 2007).

Agricultural Productivity

Over the last few decades the productivity of the African farmer has been the lowest in the world (figure 1). However, the pervasive poverty in many parts of Africa cannot be tackled without paying attention to production and market development for agricultural products. For every 1 percent increase in agricultural growth rural poverty reduces by 1.83 percent, the largest for all sectors (Fan, Johnson and Makombe, 2008).

Figure 1. Trends in Cereal Yield

Source; FAO Stat 2007

The good news is that there has been a marked increase in agricultural sector growth in Africa in the past few years: 2.7 percent in 2002, 3.0 percent in 2003 and 5.0 percent in 2004. However, for growth to have a poverty reducing effect it needs to be broad-based, small-holder oriented and result in enhanced labour opportunities.

The impressive agricultural production has been pursued through extensification where more land is brought into cultivation. With the current high population growth rate in Africa such a policy is not sustainable.

Yield

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Year

kg

/ha

LAC

SA

SSA

:

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For agricultural growth to

have a poverty reducing

effect it needs to be broad-

based, small-holder oriented

and result in enhanced

labour opportunities, (…) and be land intensive

Developing countries

will be among the

losers from climate change

African countries have to adopt intensive use of land with appropriate soil fertility management. However, with fertilizer use minimal (about 9 kilograms per hectare compared with 101 kilograms per hectare for the world) and irrigation underutilized (only 3 percent of Africa‟s arable lands are being irrigated), there is no wonder that soil degradation is becoming a major problem causing further productivity losses in Africa (Kuyvenhoven, 2007). Appropriate policies have to be put in place to reverse this trend otherwise it will severely affect the agricultural base of future generations. Significantly, policies and programmes are needed to encourage fertilizer use in ways that are technically efficient, economically rational, and market-friendly. Increased fertilizer use will be in consonance with intensification of crop-based agriculture as happens in every region of the world.

5.0 Climate Change

Since 1880, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth‟s atmosphere has risen by 35 percent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the intensifying greenhouse effect will severely alter the global climate, and the consequences of this are expected to cost around US$5000 billion per annum, in just a few decades time. According to experts‟ estimates developing countries will be among the losers from climate change (Weismann, 2007). World agricultural GDP is projected to

decrease by 16 percent by 2020 due to global warming (von Braun, 2007). The

impact on developing countries,

especially in sub-Sahara

Africa and South Asia will be much more severe than on

developed countries.

Output in developing countries is projected to decline by 20 percent while output in industrial countries is projected to decline by 6 percent. Agricultural prices will also be affected by climate variability and change. Temperature increases of more than 3oC may cause prices to increase by up to 40 percent (Easterling et al 2007).

Climate change may well lead to a further increase in the frequency and variability of more extreme events in Africa, with heavier torrential rains interspersed with more pronounced dry spells. This calls for an increase in adaptability of African agricultural

production in terms of shorter production cycles, different crops and varieties, geographical shifts in livestock production, increased irrigation, etc.

Climate change can provide an opportunity for increased investment in agriculture to ensure sustainable and resilient rural livelihoods. However, public spending on African agriculture, including investment in research and development (R&D), stands at an all-

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Income growth, climate

change, high energy

prices, and globalization

are transforming food

consumption, production, and markets

time low of less than 7 percent of agricultural GDP, against 11 percent in Asia and 13 percent in Latin America (Kuyvenhoven, 2007). With science-based technology as key driver of agricultural growth, the dramatic declines in agricultural R&D funding are a clear threat indeed to much needed future agricultural innovations in Africa (World Bank, 2007).

6.0 The World Food Situation

The World Food Situation is currently being rapidly redefined by new driving forces. Income growth, climate change, high energy prices, and globalization are transforming food consumption, production, and markets.

Increased Household Food Consumption

Many parts of the developing world continue to face high population growth, and an increasing number of countries have experienced high economic growth in recent years. Real GDP in Asia increased by more than 9 percent a year between 2005 and 2007. Sub-Sahara Africa also experienced rapid economic growth of more than 6 percent in the same period (von Braun at al, 2008). With higher incomes, shifting rural-urban populations, and changing preferences, domestic demand for food has increased. At the same time, the growing world population is demanding more and different kinds of food. Food consumption patterns are shifting from grains and other staple crops to vegetables, fruits, meat, and dairy, and this consumption cuts into land and water use for grains.

Bioenergy

In the quest to find new sources of energy some countries have resorted to bio-energy (bio-diesel and bio-alcohol) or the use of plants or plant residues for generating energy. Some 100 million tons of cereals are being diverted to the production of biofuels each year. The EU has mandated biofuels to be 10 percent of transport fuel by 2020, and the US seeks a doubling of maize-based ethanol use in 2008 and a 5-fold increase by 2022 (Free Trade Bulletin No. 31, Cato Institute). This has set in motion a worldwide scramble for land use between food and fuel. Projections by IFPRI show that by 2015, global cereal demand will increase by up to 20 percent across all regions. By 2050, demand will have increased by more than one-third in East Asia and the Pacific, and three-fold in sub-Sahara Africa (von Braun, 2008). IFPRI‟s global scenario analysis projects that biofuel expansion may

result in price

increases of 26

percent for

maize and 18

percent for

oilseeds by 2020 (von Braun, 2008). In addition the high crude oil prices could trigger additional demand for other agricultural raw materials from the chemical industry whereby the competition with the demand for food would go up more.

The disturbing part of this development is that bioenergy production competes with food production and may in the long run further deplete already low grain stocks and lead to drastic rises in the prices of basic staples in the world market at the expense of the poor

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(Weismann, 2007). “We‟re seeing more people hungry and at greater numbers than before”, Josette Sheeran, Executive Director of the World Food Program (WFP) said.

Speculative transactions involving financial investors and hoarding by consumers have added to food-price volatility in the world.

Food Supply

On the supply side, land and water constraints, climate change, and underinvestment in agriculture innovation are impairing productivity growth and necessary production response (von Braun, 2008). Between 2000 and 2006, cereal supply increased by a mere 8 percent, and stocks declined to low levels. Yields are growing very slowly in most regions; for example, yields for corn grew by only 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2006, compared to 4 percent in the 1960s and 1970s. Due to climate change, yields in developing countries are projected to decrease by 15 percent by 2080.

In many parts of Africa, the natural resource base for agricultural production is being affected by processes of soil degradation (erosion, soil depletion, desertification, etc), water scarcity, water quality reduction, siltation, deforestation, over-fishing and over-grazing. According to an FAO survey, Africa lost over 9 percent of its trees between 1990 and 2005, mainly due to logging for lumber and fuel wood. This represents over half of global forest loss, despite the fact that the continent accounts for just 16 percent of global forests (CTA, 2007). Coupled with land degradation in Africa is the low use of fertilizer which has been aggravated by the increasing price of fertilizer and other chemicals due to the high crude oil prices.

High energy prices increases the cost of shipping, trading and processing agricultural products and contributed to high food commodity prices.

Other factors that have shrunk the world cereal supply include the drought in Australia and other places and export restrictions in many countries.

Food Prices

Due to demand, supply and other factors, high food prices have already been observed and the predictions are that they will stay high for some time to come. Since the beginning of 2000, the price of wheat has increased more than threefold, while the prices of maize and rice have more than doubled. When adjusted by inflation, the price increases are lower, but still drastic. According to IFPRI‟s global scenario analysis (based on the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade – IMPACT), real world prices for rice, wheat, and maize will increase by 20 to 30 percent by 2015, and up to 40 percent by 2050. In addition, beef, pork and poultry prices are projected to increase by up to 10 percent in the next decade, and by 35 percent by 2050.

7.0 Impact of High Food Prices

Countries that are net exporters will benefit from improved terms of trade, while net importers will struggle to meet domestic food demand. As almost all countries in Africa are net importers of cereals, they would be hard hit by rising prices. Surging and volatile food prices also hit those who can least afford it – the poor and food insecure - and many of them are in Africa.

The nutrition of the poor is also at risk because of higher food prices. They may limit their food consumption and shift to even less-balanced diets, with adverse impacts on health in the short and long run. At the household level, the poor

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The doubling of food

prices could set back

the fight against poverty by 7 years

spend about 50 to 60 percent of their overall expenditures on food. A one-percent increase in the price of food in low-income countries leads to a 0.6-percent decrease in food spending. Three effects are of major concern (von Braun et al, 2008): (1) deterioration of the nutritional status of pregnant and lactating women and of pre-school children; (2) the withdrawal of children, especially girls from school; and (3) the distress sale of productive assets.

Between early 2007 and May 2008 high food prices led to social unrest in 30 countries, 13 of which are in Africa.

The high food prices may derail the progress being made by several African countries in macroeconomic performance and towards achieving the Millennium Development Goal of halving hunger and poverty by 2015. High food prices may have already pushed 100 million people into poverty over the last two years (Sierra, 2008). The doubling of food prices could set back the fight against poverty by 7 years.

8.0 Remedies for Africa’s Consideration

Changes in food availability, and rising commodity prices have crucial implications for the livelihoods of poor and food-insecure people. To combat these changes several actions can be taken (von Braun et al, 2008):

(1) There must be massive innovations in agriculture and food system to increase land and labor productivity and efficiency in distribution for long term agricultural growth.

(2) Curtail war and armed conflict.

(3) Reduce poverty, and control HIV/AIDS and malaria.

(4) There must be fast expansion of social protection as part of social safety net for the poor and vulnerable so that they can meet their food needs. Food and cash transfers should be expanded and should target the poorest people, with a focus on childhood nutrition, regions in distress, school feeding with take home rations and food for school, and food and cash for work.

(5) Undertake fast-impact food

production programs. Improve access to seeds, fertilizers and credit for the small

farm sector. Design and implement carefully subsidized input programs with exit strategies to move into market arrangements later.

(6) Change biofuel policies. Freeze biofuel production at current levels. Provide support for developing bioenergy technologies that do not compete with food, for example the use of jatropha plant.

(7) Scale up investments for sustained agricultural growth. Investments for sustained agricultural growth include expanded public spending for rural infrastructure, services, agricultural research, science, and technology. The Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) requirement to invest 10 percent of the budget in agriculture should be implemented by all African countries without delay.

(8) Reduce food grain taxes/tariffs.

(9) Eliminate agricultural export bans.

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(10) Press for the completion of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations to liberalize world agricultural trade.

(11) Build organizational and institutional capacity to deal with the situation.

As we look at the world food situation we must remember food as a universally recognized human right: “The right to adequate food is realized when every man, woman and child, alone or in community with others, has physical and economic access at all times to adequate food or means for its procurement” (UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, General Comment 12 on the Right to Adequate Food). There is no better time to turn attention to agricultural development than now. Fortunately recent initiatives like the World Development Report 2007 have placed the needed emphasis on agriculture. The momentum has to be pursued by all African countries.

References

Ahmed, U.A., R.V. Hill, L.C. Smith, D.M. Weismann and T. Frankenberger (2007), The World’s Most Deprived. Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Poverty and Hunger, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

CTA (2007), Spore, No. 130, August.

Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brancher, L. Erda, S.M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J-F, Soussana, J. Schmidhuber, and F.N. Tubiello, (2007), “Food, fibre, and forest products”, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson. Cambridge, U.K: Cambridge University Press.

Fan, S., M. Johnson, A. Saurkar and M. Makombe (2008), “Investing in African Agriculture to Halve Poverty by 2015”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 00751. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (2007), “Tackling Rural Poverty, Together”, Bonn, Germany: Global Donor platform for Rural Development.

GSS (2007), Pattern and Trends of Poverty in Ghana 1991-2006, Accra: Ghana Statistical Service.

Kuyvenhoven, A. (2007). Africa, Agriculture, Aid, Wageningen: Wageningen University.

Ravallion, M., S. Chen, and P. Sangraula (2007), New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty, Washington, DC: The World Bank.

Rural21 (2008), Malnutrition: Prevention Does Pay, International Journal for Rural Development, 42:3/2008.

Sierra, K. (2008), “Food and Development – Rising Food Prices, Responding to the Crises”, World Bank Donor Forum on Partnerships, Programs, and Trust Funds, Paris, France, May 20-21.

Von Braun, J, A. Ahmed, K. Asenso-Okyere, S. Fan, A. Gulati, J. Hoddinott, R. Pandya-Lorch, M. Rosegrant, M. Ruel, M. Torero, T. van Rheenen and K. von Grebmer (2008), High Food Prices:

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The What, Who, and How of Proposed Policy Actions, International Food Policy Research Institute.

Von Braun, J. (2008), “Rising World Food Prices: Impact on the Poor”, The International Journal for Rural Development, 42:3/2008.

Von Braun, J., T. Arnold and H-J. Preub (2007), One In Seven Goes To Bed Hungry, The Challenge of Hunger (2007), Bonn, Germany: welt hunger hilfe, International Food Research Institute, and Concern.

Wang, R. and J. von Braun (2007), Fostering Agricultural Growth For Sustainable Development, The Parliamentarian, Issue 3, Journal of the Parliaments of the Commonwealth.

Weismann, D. (2007), “Breaking the Cycle of Hunger”, in: WHH, IFPRI, CONCERN, The Challenge of Hunger 2007, International Food Policy Research Institute, Concern Worldwide, Bonn: Germany.

World Bank (2007), World Development Report, Washington: The World Bank.

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Achieving food security

is not about agricultural

policies alone, it is

about many other

policies affecting agriculture

Africa is Hungry – Which Policies Can Ensure Durable and Irreversible

Food Security?

Mafa E. Chipeta1

1.0 Introduction

This opinion piece is a sequel to an invitation by the African Union for the author to be part of a presenters‟ panel at one of its quarterly “Fridays of the Commission” forum held on 6th June 2008. The theme of the meeting was Africa‟s agricultural development and I was invited to speak on “Africa is hungry; why is it hungry and what (agricultural) policies can enable it achieve food security in a durable and irreversible manner?”. No red-blooded agricultural policy analyst can decline such an invitation and I did not.

But there is no shortage of opinions, advice and prescriptions on how to solve Africa‟s problems. So ready is everyone to give advice that part of Africa‟s challenge is to select what is sensible and practical and to stick to it. Indeed, Africa’s main development problem may arise from the region’s too great a readiness to shift and change with every wind; to adopt the dogmas, fads and fashions of far too many partners and advisers; and to operate without its own sense of vision or direction, without the discipline to stick to it, and often also without the commitment (including through belt-tightening) to put its own resources behind it.

1 Coordinator, FAO Subregional Office for

Eastern Africa,, Addis Ababa.

This note carries the views of the writer, which

are not necessarily shared by FAO or any other

corporate body within or outside the UN

system.

At the meeting, I prefaced my statement by saying that agriculture cannot be treated as an island divorced from the general economy – Africa‟s weaknesses in overall economic performance also affects this primary sector. We note (and we keep our fingers crossed) that Africa‟s total economic performance is improving even in non-petroleum exporting countries. We are therefore entitled to expect that the rural sector will also move forward. Yet agriculture is

so important

that its promotion

cannot await better

overall economic

performance; it should be given a push even under the current difficult economic climate of the region.

The key message here is this: achieving food security is not about agricultural policies alone, it is about many other policies affecting agriculture, including the macro environment and the investments in other sectors (trade, infrastructure, water resources development, human capacities, scientific research, etc) which create conditions and supportive frameworks for agriculture to succeed and prosper.

2.0 A Hungry Africa

Much has been said and written about “Afro-pessimism” a word coined to communicate a despairing conviction among Africans themselves that nothing can go right in this potentially rich but hitherto unsuccessful continent.

Afro-pessimism is partly fuelled by the widespread images that frequently put Africa in shameful limelight. Just now, they have become prominent again

30

during the 3-5 June UN Food Summit when, as FAO hosted the global event, while speeches spoke of a global problem. The TV screens instead carried images almost exclusively of Africa as a continent in starvation and dire want. The images portrayed Africa as helpless, less capable than all other regions to face the simultaneous challenges of high oil prices, high food prices, tight food supplies, a weakening world banking sector and looming climate change.

It is no surprise that of the attached WFP maps, one shows Africa dominating the world in terms of vulnerability and the other shows disproportionate incidence of food shortage/price riots in Africa. With only about 12% of the world‟s 6.5 billion people, Africa has a third of the food riots and, in general, more than its share of food-related problems so far.

As the TV screens flashed, it was both sad and shameful (for us Africans) to see once again a repeat of what has become all too familiar - but I am no Afro-pessimist. Far from causing me despair, the images gave me hope and drove me to pray that this latest public display of shameful African suffering can spur this region into taking its own destiny much more into its own hands. The frustration I feel (which I hope is shared by Africa‟s politicians and policy-implementers alike) may be a necessary prerequisite to meaningful and action-inducing anger and shame.

Meanwhile: How hungry are we? Why the hunger? What can be done about it, especially by ourselves?

3.0 How hungry is Africa?

Despite what the TV screens would have us believe, Africa produces and eats mostly its own food. However, despite a world of near-plenty, Africa is the one region where dependence on charity

from outside is greatest both in absolute and relative terms. In most African countries, food production is rising slower than population.

Africa consumes about 33% of global food aid; about 7 Eastern African cuntries (the part that includes the Horn of Africa), with only 3 -4% of world population consume nearly 20% of global food aid in normal year, more if there is a drought. Africa has annual agricultural imports of about US$25 billion (mostly food) compared to about US$15 billion of farm exports.

Taking one sub-region as an example, it was reported at the 2001 Dar es Salaam Food Security Summit that in SADC, 1980-2001 cereals output rose 3% while population soared 34%. Accordingly, any surplus SADC may have had at the beginning had by 2001 been fully eroded and even reversed into deficit. That part of Africa now imports over US$4 billion of cereals annually.

At continental scale, the African share of global agricultural trade fell from about 8% in 1960s to under 3% today – and still declining (the share for total commodity trade is even worse). Africa has also lost near-top global rank for exports of groundnuts, palm oil, coffee, etc. African countries, despite the region‟s greater abundance of land and water than many others, now import billions worth of staples from relatively small countries like Vietnam and Thailand. West Africa feeds mostly on Thai and Vietnamese rice; palm oil, which came from Africa, is now predominantly produced by Malaysia and Indonesia – Africa imports from there. Africa is in the top 4 only for tea (Kenya No 4) and cocoa (Cote d‟Ivoire, No 1) but Asia is working fast to erode this.

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Fast population growth

and conflict mainly explain food shortage

4.0 Why is Africa hungry?

Foremost underlying causes are fast population growth and conflict – the latter directly undermines agriculture. Indeed, when currently or recently conflict-ridden countries are excluded, Africa‟s food production has for some time now been growing faster that population. In addition, the following are among factors leading to the poor agricultural performance that explains hunger:

Inadequate public investment (infrastructure, science) for agriculture;

Poor incentives to producers (high risks, unstable markets and prices, unfair competition from subsidised imports, easy food aid etc);

Lack of vision – readiness to accept all advice and to keep changing policies and development approaches;

One could argue that food security is not just about production but also about trade; true, and yet Africa remains hungry despite producing own food plus importing some $25 billion annually. The problem is that Africa is too poor to afford to import its entire shortfall; for most of its people, access to food requires direct production by themselves.

5.0 Key Messages

It bears repeating what was said earlier: that in non-conflict African countries, production grew faster than population, so showing that peace is critical. It is also worth saying that although in these interesting times, when attention goes to “high food prices”, it is well to remember that “food shortage” is no stranger to Africa. Other selected messages to note include:

Rural investment too low e.g. severe lack of infrastructure - for example, Africa is at India‟s 1950s road density level;

On water use: Africa uses only 4% available for farming, Asia is at 40%.

[and of Africa’s

small share, much goes to non-food crops];

On fertilisers, Africa is at about 9kg/hectare, OECD at 125kg, East Asia at 250kg or so;

Africa‟s small, disorganised farmers also face heavy risks (a) rain-dependence & (b) unstable and unrewarding markets;

Africa has deregulated trade irresponsibly, even opening up to easy importation from heavily subsidising countries. Its local products cannot compete even in domestic markets – no other region has been so generous in trade concessions;

Policies: Africa does not have/does not defend its own vision – it accepts too much advice and too often: its policies are thus unstable;

Africa is locked into low-input/low-output “subsistence” farming – it lacks ambition to be a player in world-class scale agriculture;

Under structural adjustment, Africa withdrew government support for agriculture precipitously, and downsized sector public institutions excessively.

The result of the above weaknesses has been poor production in Africa relative to internal needs and demands of trade. Furthermore, Africa has been cushioned against the full pain of hunger by easy food aid and significant donor funding of food imports. The

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hope must be that the current high food prices will make donors too hard-pressed to afford adequate supplies of food for charity, so pushing Africa into more forcefully seeking domestic policy

solutions.

6.0 Africa’s Responses So Far

Africa is not all doom and gloom: there are some agricultural bright spots. The reality is, however, that desertic North Africa is actually doing extremely well compared to sub-Saharan Africa in agricultural productivity. This should be a surprise but is not: the governments of the dry North African countries are investing aggressively in public infrastructure, irrigation, human capacities, science and technology and market development/support (including trade negotiation) to ensure success. The same cannot easily be said for most sub-Saharan African countries, except for South Africa and one or two other countries in this sub-region. Each sub-Saharan country tries its own recipe and

some are succeeding; the underpinnings of the much-vaunted Malawian success in regaining maize surpluses is in Box 1.

Despite evidence from elsewhere which shows that even relatively small nation-

states (Sri Lanka, Laos, Vietnam, Uruguay etc) have succeeded in agriculture, Africa felt the need for “continental” solidarity and adopted under NEPAD the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development programme (CAADP). To buttress the CAADP as an Africa-led initiative, Africa‟s leaders at their 2003 Maputo summit decided that by 2008, their countries would be allocating at least 10% of budgets for CAADP implementation. We are half-way into the deadline and less than half the countries have met the target. Furthermore, food aid dependence shows few signs of wilting.

In a period that has seen a frenzy of declarations and statements of commitment by Africa, implementation

Box 1: The Malawian renewed maize surplus – a miracle?

Since about two years ago, Malawi has been getting praised to high heaven for regaining a growing grain surplus, which it is exporting and sharing charitably with neighbours. To me as a Malawian, this brings a smile: the “secret” of this Malawian miracle is in fact neither a secret not a miracle.

Malawi is simply resuming the committing of “sins” against dogmatic application of modern economic orthodoxy – it has resumed offer to its poor farmers of lower-cost fertilisers and quality seed. Predictably, this set of subsidies causes higher production, leading (naturally) to reduction or even collapse of prices; government has then used various measures to stabilise prices, so maintaining the production incentives to farmers.

Those who have a global overview will note that Europe, North America, Japan, many other OECD economies - the industrial world, which does not need agriculture as much as Africa - has been happily committing and will continue to commit these interventionist sins that artificially prop up agriculture there (under sometimes esoteric guises) into eternity.

Malawi has committed this “transgression” in the past: in the first two decades after its independence it had large food surpluses and was a major SADC grain exporter. But these surpluses reversed into food deficits (and consequent annual appeals for food aid) when government obeyed the dictates of structural adjustment: i.e. external demand that the country must withdraw “subsidies” for fertilisers and seeds.

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33

has been left to lag. There are worrying hints that hopes are being pinned on external partners (not Africa itself) to fund what is supposed to be an Africa-led NEPAD: this is NOT encouraging. It is discouraging not just because the

fall-back on aid is against the “Africa-led” spirit of NEPAD but because increasingly, donors show clear preference for giving food aid than supporting agricultural investment.

7.0 Effective and Durable Responses for Irreversible Success

There is always temptation to add to the prescriptions that Africa is already inundated with. Let me succumb and add my own: the bottom line is that Africa must urgently boost production and productivity to levels exceeding population growth rate. Other responses could include:

• If something keeps failing, stop pushing: Africa needs to desist from fundamentalist obedience to the economic orthodoxy of minimalist public support for agriculture given its decades of failure (Note: those advising Africa do not themselves follow it);

• There is need to reverse much current public policy: key is greater public investment to first create conditions attractive to serious private capital;

• African action is dispersed: it must focus - for many countries initially on staple foods (now increasingly also commercial, hence also of anti-poverty value). [initially, when surpluses are fragile, also invest into fallback staples which in cereal countries would be cassava & other root crops (and vice versa)]

• Africa should be wary of the argument that it should buy internationally rather than produce domestically if international market food is cheaper, because (a) it is short of money; (b) prices are not going to remain low in future; and (c) food is a national security issue able to threaten political freedom.

There are yet more prescriptions on offer: firstly, a personal belief is that money is a secondary issue and even if abundant, will not work well in the absence of strong and sustained African

34

attitude change. Dimensions that appear to require a re-look include:

• A need to stop appearing to assume that Africa is owed a living and therefore that food aid is a right and is a

sustainable solution (as stated in the AU‟s own paper for the 2003 Maputo Summit);

• Discourage impunity in the import of food – do so selectively, even if it is donor-funded [the real cost of imported food includes invisible loss of jobs that could have been created by producing at home; in any case, foreign food may soon become too costly for donors too)];

• Become self-confident about domestic production and follow it up with substantial own resources.

A second fundamental need if to make African farming pay and make it competitive:

• Motivate farmers /producers by (a) making it profitable & (b) mitigating

risks of (i) bad weather (b) excess market and price instability;

• Raise productivity – make inputs accessible and affordable: especially quality seeds/breeds and fertilisers;

A third need is to address the fundamentals, especially making a start on slowing population growth and reducing conflicts. Other needs (almost all calling for a strong governmental leadership and engagement) include:

• Develop a vision, be committed to it and reflect it in stable priorities and policies – protect them from fickle development fads and fashions;

• Ensure strong government support for rural infrastructure and agriculture;

• Protect local products from unfair competition of subsidised imports – watch inequitable trade /partnership agreements;

Box 2: The reality of trade negotiations/agreements between unequals

Africa collectively accounts for less than 3% of global agricultural trade. The industrial countries (which also dominate agricultural production and its surpluses) account for over 80%. The thought that the tow can sit at the same table to “negotiate” as equals should trigger amusement. The outcome, in terms of whose interests will prevail can be guessed and do not need to be spelt out.

Put in colloquial language, in trade, as in all other interactions among unequals, it is power relationships (and the desire to secure what best satisfies self-interest) that determine the outcome. Africa cannot expect a positive outcome for itself when the playing field is not level. Doha, EPAs and other trade and development negotiations all suggest that the more powerful party gets its way, whether by bullying or by offering “sweeteners” for the weaker party to swallow more easily some bitter pill.

Most bitter pills tend to be the requirements for reciprocity – that both parties offer each other “equal” access to their markets or equally avoid “economically distortive” support to their producers (including the right to subsidise inputs). The logic sounds fair but in reality a 3% contributor can hardly cause distortion. Nevertheless such agreements are being pushed and for a poor region like Africa, reciprocal opening has led to domestic markets being swamped by cheap subsidised-price imported products that out-compete domestic products not only in price but also in consistence of quantity and quality, so killing local competition and destroying local production and manufacturing.

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35

• Invest in renewing University and vocational education for agriculture: HIV/AIDS has killed many trained people;

• While strongly supporting smallholder producers, also vigorously attract medium and large scale investors;

• With only 3% world trade, Africa to assume others will win almost all provisions of international trade negotiations - but at least fight to the finish to protect the interests of Africa‟s own producers.

A fourth area is the need for Africa to better act in line with true self-interest: There is a common saying which goes “beware of strangers bearing gifts”. Notwithstanding the reality of international solidarity and a major charity industry that derives from it (including for food), the weak and vulnerable may wish to be guided by this adage when it comes to matters of strategic national interest and security.

Food issues are by definition national security issues – if they were not, we would not see industrial countries where agriculture offers only 2-5% to GDP protecting the sector so vigorously. Africa often operates as if this were not the case.

There is another popular adage: “there are no free lunches” – Africa needs to heed this when it ponders its excessive reliance on aid for a critical need like food and a critical sector like agriculture. A thought to keep may be to note that trade negotiations are by definition about power relationships (Box 2). The powerful tend to be kind when none of their strategic interests are threatened:

Africa with only 3% of global trade is hardly a threat but nevertheless some of its products are blocked. Africa therefore needs to watch carefully when offered increased market access. Very often there a hard quid pro quo: (a) what is (reciprocally) expected in return? (b) does Africa have capacity to capture the opportunities so offered (otherwise the offer and its acceptance are both meaningless)?; and (c) to what extent will the offers lock Africa largely into low-value commodity exports?.

In a region that is so globally marginal in trade, individual African countries have practically negligible negotiating power. For them, it is essential to rely upon collective African Union and REC support in all international negotiations – i.e. exercise more frequently than to date Africa‟s collective rather than individual sovereignty.

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Why African Agriculture Failed Its Primary Mission: That of Nourishing

the African Populations?

Menghestab Haile1

1.0 Introduction

The question “Why African Agriculture failed its primary mission: that of nourishing the African populations?” could be rephrased and instead we can ask “why Africans have failed to ensure the food security of Africa?” It is an unfortunate reality that at present food insecurity is greatest in Sub-Saharan African countries compared to other developing countries. The major reasons for the current status of food insecurity in Africa include: low agricultural productivity; lack of appropriate agricultural policies; poor rural infrastructure resulting in high transport costs; lack of appropriate marketing strategies; frequent extreme weather events; high disease burden including malaria and HIV AIDS; weak financial support systems such as rural credit; lack of safety net systems; recurrent political conflicts and most importantly lack of governance and genuine commitment.

The collective failure to eliminate hunger from our continent is manifested in our inability to achieve the MDGs, in particular MDG1. In fact, Africa is the only continent where food aid requirement is steadily increasing and dependency on food imports constantly rising. The prevailing situation of recurrent of food crises in Africa has resulted in people asking if Africa will ever manage to free its citizens from hunger and chronic malnutrition. Many international, regional and national conferences have been organized to

1 Programme Advisor, World Food

Programme, Rome, Italy.

The views expressed in the paper are not

necessarily the official poistion

of the WFP.

discuss Africa‟s food problems. For example from 6-8 June, 2007 an international conference was held in Oslo, Norway and the subject of the conference was “Can Africa Feed Itself?” The conference concluded indeed Africa can feed itself as it is endowed with plentiful of natural resources including fertile land and water that is essential for agriculture. It has also the necessary human resources willing to work for many hours if given the opportunity and the incentives.

So why can we not then liberate our continent from the fear of hunger and food crisis that is impacting negatively on our people? A short answer for this is that Africa lacks strong political commitment, vision and leadership to guide it out of its current status. Other countries in Asia such as India and China and some countries in Southern America who were even in a worse situation than Africa some 30 years ago have made impressive progress. How did they do it and why can we not?

Africa‟s agricultural problem is not due to lack of natural resources such as land and water. It is not due to lack of human resources. The main reason for our failure is our inability to work together for a common objective, that is, creating a prosperous Africa, free from war and hunger. In the following sections we will discuss in more detail why we have failed so far and what we must do if we are to free our Africa from the yoke of hunger and dependency on donor generosity.

2.0 Background on the current situation

In Africa agriculture is the main source of food and employment supporting the livelihoods of more than 80% of the rural population. Agriculture provides 30% of the GDP and 30% of foreign currency earnings. In Africa, rural

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37

poverty accounts for about 90% of total poverty and hence most of the undernourished are among the rural communities. Agricultural failure therefore will not only result in direct loss of production and reduction in the GDP but also loss of rural employment and income leading to the destruction of rural communities and livelihoods.

To cope with agriculture failures and acute food shortages, households often engage in economic activities that enable them to meet the immediate food requirements of their families by diversifying their food acquisition strategies. Such strategies may include: fire wood sale increasing deforestation; divest productive assets; stress sale of livestock; consume seeds; pull out children out of school; migrate looking for jobs often in less productive sectors. In some cases this could result in increased competition for access to water and agricultural land that could trigger conflicts; in such cases developmental gains achieved could be reversed; household vulnerability to future risks will increase trapping them in perpetual poverty.

Despite the importance of the agricultural sector in providing reliable employment and supporting the livelihoods of the majority of Africans, political leaders and their advisors have often dismissed agriculture as a backward and primitive economic activity. African governments on average spend only 5-7% of government expenditures to support agriculture which is a way too low considering the role of agriculture.

Agriculture is also culturally marginalized and considered an activity for the poor and uneducated. In fact, in many African languages there are derogatory words that are used to refer to rural or farming people, for example, in Ethiopia

“Geberye” means farmer and the connotation is uneducated and primitive or “Hagereseb” meaning rural person. Women farmers are even less respected in this context. African small scale farmers are often neglected and excluded from national policy formulations that affect their livelihoods. Policies are also not communicated nor explained to them, so rural communities are unaware of their rights in terms of access to and use of resources. Such attitude towards rural populations and farming communities has resulted in continuous agricultural decline and migration away from agriculture. As a result agricultural growth has been stagnant or has been negative in many cases.

It is not only African governments that have ignored Africa‟s small holder agriculture, but also their development partners as well as the international financial intuitions. However, it is now becoming clear that the policies of the past have been misguided and that, if we are committed to reduce rural poverty then we need to address agriculture. The need to invest in agriculture is now well recognized by governments and their development counter parts. For example the New Partnership for Africa‟s Development (NPEAD) has put forward as its priority programme the CAADP (Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme) as its vehicle to tackle hunger and malnutrition. In the next section we will examine the nature of small scale agriculture in Africa and the challenges it faces.

3.0 Understanding the nature of Africa’s agriculture

The main characteristic of Africa‟s agriculture is that it is subsistence, rain fed and based mainly on small land holding. In the arid and semi-arid regions agriculture is dominated by agro-

38

The continent is

a net importer

pastoralist and pastoralist type of farming. Family members work on the farms providing the needed labour. Basic agricultural tools such as plough, hand hoe are used while farm animals such as oxen and donkey become part of the family labour. Women do most of the agricultural work as well as managing their families and yet the majority of them are poor.

Women‟s role in agriculture encompasses the entire Food System cycle starting from Production to Consumption.

Production – cultivation, weeding, harvesting

Processing and storage

Food marketing – you see the small stalls where women are selling and also buying food

Food Preparation and serving the family

For food preparation women require fuel – wood and water that they have to fetch often travelling for hours and exposing themselves to personal risks. In fact this is a critical link with the environment and climate change has direct link with the availability of wood and water. Women in addition to working on agriculture, they also have the most important responsibility, that is, to look after the future generation – the children, the sick and the old.

Lack of basic infrastructure is a main characteristic of rural Africa, where most of the small holder agriculture is practiced. Infrastructure in this context refers to all types of transportation, communications, electricity, social service centres such as schools, health centres, market place, administration structures and facilities, etc.

A sustainable mechanism for the provision of basic agricultural tools such as ploughs, hoe and spades needs to be established. There is also a need to undertake local level research to improve

the effectiveness of these simple agricultural tools particularly those used by women.

Despite women doing most of the agricultural work and managing the family food security, their role in agricultural planning and national policy formulation is marginalized. Their concerns are not taken into consideration. Agricultural policy decisions are often planned and implemented with out the participation of women and as a result most policies fail to target the priority areas of intervention that would optimize return of investment.

African governments and their development partners have focused on production of cash crops for the export markets in order to earn foreign currency. Some of the main cash crops produced include: coffee, cocoa, ground nuts, tea, tobacco, cotton and cut-flowers. The problem with producing cash crops is that the prices of these commodities are determined at international markets and often putting the small producers are at a disadvantage. As their land is used for producing the cash crops they will be forced to buy food using the cash they have earned from selling the cash crops. The land could have been used to produce food crops that could be consumed by the population. There is a need to balance and plan properly to have a balance between food crop and cash crop production.

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39

Major problem: post harvest loss

4.0 Crop production trends and Africa

Over the years, food production per capita in Africa has declined and today

the continent has become a net food importer. To keep up with population increase and increased food requirements new land is being constantly brought under cultivation often intruding into pastoralists‟ domain as well as protected areas. In the dry and semi-dry regions area available for grazing is declining due to crop expansion and expropriation of grazing land for other public and private uses. Symbiotic patterns of interactions between smallholder sedentary farmers, agro-pastoralists and pastoralist is breaking down in many parts of Africa resulting in conflicts such as in Darfur. This pattern of agriculture increases the vulnerability of rural communities to future risks.

The graph below shows (data from FAO and WFP) total cereal production, import requirement, total food aid delivered and the estimate of post harvest loss (25%). The total food crop

production since 1997 has been around 80 million MTs. With population growth the extra requirement has been filled with food imports and food aid. we can clearly see the increasing trend of import requirements from about 14 million Mts in 1997 to 24 million Mts in 2005. A

major factor in Africa‟s agriculture is the huge post harvest

loss. Various studies estimate a post harvest loss of between 20-30% of total production.

We note that that the total food aid delivered compared to post harvest loss is very small. In fact the post harvest loss is about 5-7 times more than the total food aid delivered. Another observation is that the import

Cereal production and import requirements (million MTs)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

MT

s (

millio

n)

Production

Import requirement

Food Aid delivered

Post harvest loss

40

Major risk: climate variability

requirement is of the same magnitude as the post harvest loss. If we could only reduce post harvest losses by 50% that would be more than double the food aid requirement. Africa could feed itself by just reducing its post harvest losses.

African agricultural, in addition to the declining trend in production, it is characterized by high year to year variability associated with climatic factors. In fact climate variability and extreme weather events such as droughts, excessive rains and floods are among the main risks affecting agricultural productivity and hence rural household food security. A failure of the rainy season is directly linked to agricultural failure reducing food availability at household level as well as limiting rural employment possibilities. In recent years, the largest food crises in Africa that required large scale external food aid have been attributed fully or partially to extreme weather. The food crises of 1974, 1984/85, 1992 and 2002 more recently 2005 that affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of rural households have been mainly caused by droughts and have resulted in acute hunger and malnutrition, loss of productive assets and increased vulnerability to future risks.

5.0 What are the main causes for our failure to food secure Africa?

In the previous sections we have highlighted that, indeed the food security situation in Africa is worsening, and that agricultural productivity is declining, import requirement is increasing and food aid delivery becoming a necessity. Various reasons are given for the failure. Here below are some of the factors commonly mentioned.

• High level poverty and indebtedness

• Conflicts and political instability

• Population pressures

• Extreme weather events and climate change

• Inadequate physical and institutional

infrastructure to support assets and

income diversification

among vulnerable communities

• Poor agriculture and livestock market information and access.

• Lack of appropriate agricultural policies

• Lack of infrastructure (roads, health and financial institutions)

• Lack of marketing strategies and unfair trade

• High disease burden such as malaria and HIV/AIDS

• Limited technology adoption and inputs

• Limited government investment in smallholder agriculture

• Heavy dependency on traditional rain fed agriculture (over the 70%)

• Lack of appropriate risk management strategies

• External interference and inappropriate policies

This is a long list of problems that are supposedly resulting in Africa‟s inability to increase its agricultural productivity and hence adequately feed all its citizens. When carefully examining the list it becomes obvious that the answer to most of the questions lies within the

:

41

Three important

factors contributing

to food insecurity:

conflict and political

instability; Lack of

infrastructure;Lack

of appropriate risk management

African governments and political leaders. The ultimate responsibility of providing solutions to the problems of Africans is with our leaders and governments.

Let us consider the three most important factors contributing to food insecurity.

(1) Conflict and political instability

The main factor in determining the success of African agriculture and rural development and in the end achieving food security is our ability to avoid civil conflicts and political instability within Africa. Many African nations are spending precious resources on civil conflicts instead of investing in development including agriculture. Rural populations are made to fight the various wars, though, they don‟t gain from such wars who ever wins if there is a winner at all. Here are some factors associated with conflicts that affect the attainment of food security.

limited physical access to land, pasture, water and natural resources and markets due to insecurity

pastoralists have limited mobility for their livestock – mobility is a critical part of the livelihoods of pastoralists – traditional routes

Loss of labor as often it is the young rural people who join the arms – increased burden on women and children

national expenditure on war is often a priority and far exceeds expenditure on peaceful social such on agriculture, rural development, health and education.

Loss of any foreign and national investment as well as tourism

Disruption of education, health and developmental projects

Direct impact on the

population, displacement,

disruption of agriculture

Child soldiers are common in such conflicts robbing the future of the society

GDP goes down for countries at war particularly those that are heavily dependent on agriculture

An important message here is that the African leadership needs to take peace and security as the fundamental step towards African development. Indeed the AU has taken this seriously and has established a commission for Peace and Security. Now is the time to act and secure peace and stability in the continent.

(2) Lack of infrastructure

The most important infrastructure in rural setting is transportation. Transport infrastructure is a pre-requisite for effective and viable economic development of a country, region and continent. An efficient transport infrastructure is necessary for any local products to be offered at competitive price and hence be able to compete

42

effectively in today‟s economy. Generally Africa has poor road, railway and communication infrastructure. There are only a few all weather or tarred roads linking major towns in the region. Most of the rural roads (particularly in the arid areas) are in very poor conditions and are often impassable during rainy seasons. Communications systems in all countries, while generally improving, are in need of modernization and expansion and constrain the development of rural areas and the collection of data.

Poor infrastructure inhibits the participation of agriculturalists in meaningful trade. Access to markets and utilities is constrained due to the lack of infrastructure and prohibitive high transport costs. Since rural populations in Africa are generally dispersed, lack of developed road and communications systems has seriously stifled or restricted development in these areas. Therefore these populations are generally very poor and usually experience very severe impact from occurrence of any disaster particularly drought and floods.

Just imagine if we had highways running across from Dakar to Djibouti, Cape town to Cairo, Dare Selam to Rabat, and Port Sudan to Luanda, the food security problem would be addressed automatically. This is where we need serious donor support and investment. Donors and international institutions have supported the construction of oil pipelines in the Sudan and Chad in order to get the oil out. Maybe they could help to interlink Africa.

(3) Lack of appropriate risk management

To achieve progress towards meeting the MDGs in Africa food insecurity and vulnerability problems must urgently be addressed with appropriate programmes. Any longer term poverty reduction initiative needs to start by addressing the

main concerns of the populations. When facing food emergencies the options that households have to access food becomes limited and often at the cost of losing their longer term sustainable developmental potential. Without addressing such emergencies appropriately it will be very difficult to engage the poor in a longer term developmental projects. Steps that should be taken to create opportunities for sustainable development programme include: (a) meeting people‟s immediate food needs affected by natural and man-made disasters; (b) expanding the scope of livelihood opportunities for poor and food insecure households so that they are able to better manage the risks associated with natural and man-made emergencies; and (c) investing in projects that would revive the agricultural sector.

Addressing food insecurity problems with timely and appropriate intervention modalities requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors that determine household food security such as; the main risks faced by poor and food-insecure households; the livelihood strategies households adopt to manage the risks; and how external assistance can best support the livelihood strategies. A comprehensive food security and vulnerability analyses and monitoring system that forms the basis for answering questions such as who are the food insecure and vulnerable; where they live; and why they are food insecure and vulnerable is required.

Africa needs to establish its own risk management capacity and setup contingency funds to address food crises on a timely and predictable way. The international community should support the AU and NEPAD with the necessary resources to address African problems.

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Need of international

commitment and implementation strategy

6.0 How are we responding to the problem at policy level?

Responses to these challenges will necessarily vary widely by country and region within Africa, depending on social, political, economic, and biophysical realities. The responses could be grouped by scale that is continental, regional, national, local and household levels. At the same time responses can also be organized (1) immediate responses that yield impacts within 1-2 years; (2) medium term responses that generate impacts within 3-5 years; and (3) long term responses that produce impacts within 6-10 years. In the following section we will discuss the ongoing responses at the international, continental and national levels.

At International Level:

To reverse the ever increasing malnutrition rates and human suffering in Africa, world leaders, national governments, the humanitarian community and donor agencies have made commitments at various international summits and conferences. The World Food Conference in 1974, the World Food Summit of 1996, the Millennium Declaration of the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000, the World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002), the G-8 pledge of 2005 to double assistance to Africa by 2010, and the recently held High Level Conference of 2008 are some of the examples of international level efforts. At international level, the expression of intention to address hunger is strong but with limited success so far. The World Food Conference (1974) declaration reads as follows: “every man, woman

and child has the inalienable right to be free from hunger and malnutrition in order to develop their physical and mental faculties." In fact The Conference set as its goal the eradication of hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition within a decade - that would have been by 1984, a year that Africa saw the worst famine in many

decades.

The 1974 World Food

Conference was a major effort by the international

community towards addressing global food insecurity. Despite the cold war and major political differences world leaders came together and made a bold commitment. Unfortunately the 1974 commitments did not go far. The year that hunger was supposed to have been eradicated was the year that many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa suffered the worst drought and famine.

The next major international conference on the subject was the World Food Summit of 1996. At the end of the conference Romano Prodi stated the following “The Rome Declaration calls upon us to reduce by half the number of chronically undernourished people on the Earth by the year 2015. If each of us gives his or her best I believe that we can meet and even exceed the target we have set for ourselves.“ At the same conference Dr Jacques Diouf, DG of FAO stated the following "We have the possibility to do it. We have the knowledge. We have the resources. And with the Rome Declaration and the Plan of Action, we've shown that we have the will”.

In summary these international declarations and statements have not yet been met with a strong commitment and

44

Continental level

initiatives:

CAADP and FAFS

implementation strategy. As a result most of the declarations have not been fulfilled. What is also important is that there is no clear mechanism to monitor and enforce the implementation of the declarations as most of them are dependent on donor voluntary funding. In any case it is important to appreciate the international efforts to help Africa but at the same time it is also critical that Africans recognize it is their own responsibility to deal with African issues.

Continental level – the Africa level policy response

Recognizing that the various international conferences and meetings were not making much progress to address African‟s problems, African leaders decided to take responsibility and speed up and intensify the fight against hunger and poverty through a comprehensive approach. First the OAU was transformed to the AU with a much clearer objectives and mandate. Some of the issues that the new AU must address include Peace and Security, Agriculture and Rural Development and the overall social and economic integration of the continent.

For the first time an African lead and owned initiative was started in the form of the New Partnership for Africa‟s Development, NEPAD. It was initiated to provide a framework and leadership for developing and implementing a comprehensive programme for the political, economic, social and cultural advancement and renewal of Africa. One of the main goals of NEPAD is to ensure that the continent achieves the MDGs and emphasizes on governance, peace, security and mutual partnerships.

It advocates the setting up of development agenda based on national and regional priorities with mutual accountability of African and its developmental partners for their commitments.

Furthermore under the framework of NEPAD the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has

been endorsed by African Heads of State and Governments as a response to the declining agricultural growth, food security, and rural development in Africa. CAADP has a key goal of attaining an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in agriculture and this will allow Africa by 2015

Attain food security;

Improve agricultural productivity to maintain a 6 percent annual growth rate;

Develop dynamic regional and sub-regional agricultural markets;

Integrate farmers into a market economy; and

Achieve a more equitable distribution of wealth.

CAADP has been initiated to provide a strategic framework to guide country development efforts and partnerships in the agricultural sector and directs agricultural investment to four mutually reinforcing and interlinked pillars:

Pillar I: Extending the area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems;

Pillar II: Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacities for market access;

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45

Pillar III: Increasing food supply, reducing hunger and improving responses to food emergency crises; and

Pillar IV: Improving agriculture research, technology dissemination and adoption.

While the four pillars address comprehensively agricultural development, Pillar 3 caters for the chronically food insecure and vulnerable populations that may be affected by various crises and emergencies. The principle is that the CAADP agenda must simultaneously achieve the agricultural growth agenda while at the same time contributing to the Millennium Development Goal targets for addressing poverty and hunger (MDG 1 aims to cut extreme poverty and hunger in half by 2015). CAADP Pillar III brings together the key elements of the NEPAD/CAADP vision that is of assuring agricultural growth, with well-integrated and functioning markets and access to food to the vulnerable groups. To guide the implementation of Pillar 3, a new Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) has been put forward. The main purpose of the FAFS is to assist African governments and stakeholders to meet the objectives of CAADP Pillar III that is to address food security challenges that include: (1) inadequate food supply, (2) widespread and persistent hunger and malnutrition, and (3) inadequate management of food crises.

The FAFS represents the first concerted effort by Africans to address food insecurity and free the millions of its citizens from fear of hunger and malnutrition. The FAFS provides answers not only to the question of “what” needs to be done to increase food security in Africa, but also to “how” this might be done. If

implemented fully CAADP will contribute greatly to answering our question how can Africa be food secured?

National level

To achieve genuine progress towards eradication of hunger and reduce vulnerability to food crises in Africa, the causes of food insecurity and vulnerability must urgently be addressed with appropriate programmes that should include:

(a) meeting people‟s immediate needs in the aftermath of natural and man-made disasters;

(b) expanding the scope of livelihood opportunities for poor and food insecure households enhancing their resilience to shocks by strengthening their coping strategies; and

(c) Strengthening the response and preparedness capacity that includes institutional support in building sub-national, national and regional strategies to deal with the growing frequency of disasters.

Governments need to make small holder farming more productive and sustainable through appropriate policy implementation and investments. It is important to develop a policy that would enhance agriculture productivity which in turn would speed up sustainable economic growth and ensuring food security both at the national and household levels.

Let us take the example of Ethiopia. In 2002, the government of Ethiopia designed a comprehensive policy and strategy on agriculture development to eradicate poverty and assure food security. This policy has various components including agric-rural development, food security, and disaster preparedness and response.

46

(A) Agric-rural development

The tools that were used in the implementation of the Agric-Rural-Centred Development Policy and Strategy include:

Creating Awareness and Sense of Ownership among All Stakeholders at All Levels: The revised Strategy, before it was launched, was thoroughly debated at policy, technical, development agents (extension agents), and beneficiaries levels. Awareness was thus created and ownership established at all levels.

Strengthening Implementation Capacity: Necessary capacity building was made both at the development agents and beneficiaries levels through technical and vocational education and training. Graduates from technical colleges have been placed in all localities of the country. These experts essentially will be the extension agents.

Packaging and Dissemination of Technological Innovations. In addition to local indigenous knowledge, appropriate technology packages have been prepared - based on home-based researches and imported, but adopted to Ethiopian conditions – and distributed to small holder farmers regularly.

Encouraging Farmers to produce High-Value Crops. In order for farmers to earn more income, they were encouraged to produce high-value commodities such as oilseeds, beans, cottons, spices, fruits, vegetables, etc.

Instituting Micro Finance – Credits and Savings. Micro Finance Institutions have been established in rural areas to support the implementation of the Agric-Rural Development Strategy. Millions of small holder farmers are benefiting from the MiFis. The introduction of

microfinance, providing access to credit without formal collateral, has opened access to loans for millions of poor people, especially female-headed households.

Expansion of Education and Health Services. Primary education and health services have been expanding in rural areas, thus improving literacy rate and health of rural people in general and that of small holder farmers in particular. Ministry of Health has also announced that 24, 000 extension health workers have been placed in the whole country so far, and that health coverage has reached 87%.

When this strategy was introduced, the emphasis given to agriculture – especially smallholder farming - and rural development by the Government was met with skepticism and resistance both at home and abroad. The skepticism was centered on the view that development could not be brought about by agric-rural based strategy, and less so by small holder farming. Clearly, this was still the period when agriculture/rural development was not given the attention it deserved at the international level. After 25 years of neglect, the World Bank, in its “emerging vision of agriculture for development”, reinforces the earlier assertion by researchers that small holder farmers are the most efficient producers, and play a vital role in bringing about development hence the vindication of the Ethiopian government Policy and Strategy on agricultural and rural development.

We need

(B) Food security programmes

While focusing on agricultural development, governments must also develop strategies that address rural and urban food insecurity in the short term.

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The current

humanitarian

system enables

management of crisis but not risks

Taking the example of Ethiopia again the government launched Food Security Programme, which is aimed at addressing the underlying causes of chronic and transitory food insecurity. The Food Security Programme‟s target is about 20% of the population of the country. Some of its major components include the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) and Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transitions to More Sustainable Livelihoods (MERET).

Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)

Humanitarian food aid has been used for many years to support people affected by drought in Ethiopia. Although it has saved many lives, it was not building livelihoods and resilience as food aid often arrived too late relative to the need of the affected people as well as was not predictable. It was also hamstrung with uncertainties. All this meant that the humanitarian food aid could not be used effectively and did little to protect livelihoods, prevent environmental degradation, generate community assets and preserve family assets.

Taking into account the weaknesses of the emergency food assistance, the Government decided on an alternative system to augment the needs of chronic food-insecure families, and deal with some of the overarching causes of food insecurity. It launched in 2005 a new system, known as Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), which is considered as a major element of the effort to end famine in Ethiopia.

The PSNP replaced the emergency food assistance system as the main tool for helping the chronically food-insecure rural people. The PSNP provides resources to chronically food-insecure households through two means: (1) payment to able-bodied members for participation in labour-intensive public works activities, (2) direct grants to labour-poor, elderly or incapacitated households. International development agency partners under the leadership of the Government participate in the funding and implementation of the PSNP. A key factor for success is that this is government owned and government lead.

This type of intervention is effective as an immediate and medium term intervention to address chronic food insecurity.

Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transitions to More

Sustainable Livelihoods (MERET)

The activities of the PSNP are closely linked with those of the Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transitions to More Sustainable

Livelihoods Project (MERET). The MERET project makes use of a community-based, participatory approach to soil and water conservation and reforestation which benefits millions of poor rural people in many parts of the country.

The MERET project is based on community-based micro-watershed approach to land management, combined with consumption support to poor rural households, which has been piloted extensively via partnerships between the government and the United Nations World Food Programme, the German GTZ and others. The Ministry

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Establishing an

African led Risk

Management

System under the

AUC umbrella will

significantly

enhance emergency

preparedness and

response capacity

of member states

of Agriculture and Rural Development adopted in 2005 guidelines on community-based watershed management developed from these pilot experiences.

Local Level Participatory Planning Approach (LLPPA) has been introduced to the MERET process, through which training is provided to both community members and local government officials. The LLPPA is also a mechanism through which local government officials collaborate with communities on planning, implementation and evaluation. On the other hand development partners such as WFP provide food assistance that community members obtain in exchange for construction and maintenance of conservation works.

In accordance with a 2006 study of MERET by WFP and IFPRI, LLPPA has enhanced community capacity to plan and manage development works. Communities have moved beyond basic conservation to deciding on the allocation of productive resources and governance of communal assets. MERET communities elect Planning Teams to develop five-year conservation plans, subject to ratification and evaluation by the whole community. Such process permits for voice and accountability in community decision making. Many local-level soil and water conservation officials voice strong commitment to collaboration with the communities. MERET also creates room for dialogue and exchanges

between communities and the local government. MERET empowers women by engaging them in income generating activities and by assuring them significant representation on Planning Teams.

The implementation of MERET helps to improve food security and reduce poverty because soil and water conservation facilitates diversification of

agricultural production, increased productivity and food availability and higher incomes. The benefits accruing from MERET project are appreciated by the MERET beneficiaries. The participants of MERET expressed improved family health, education, and nutrition, as well as greater self-esteem. MERET‟s contribution is also

expressed in the sense that LLPPA is now used in Ethiopia‟s national Community-Based Participatory Watershed Development guidelines. Nevertheless, formation of associations of Planning Teams beyond the community level, which has yet to be carried out, could promote participatory approaches more widely.

7.0 Protecting the poor against agriculture failure

Frequent agricultural failures and declining productivity threaten the livelihoods of rural communities. Emergency preparedness and response strategy with appropriate financial mechanisms should be a pre-requisite in promoting sustainable development. Humanitarian aid has an insurance function as it protects lives. However, the implementation of a successful humanitarian intervention is dependent

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on the availability and predictability of resources. Current humanitarian aid based on an appeal process is often unreliable, and unpredictable for it to be considered by recipient governments and beneficiary households in their decision making process. The current humanitarian system enables management of crisis but not risks.It is recognized that the African Union Commission (AUC) and its member states‟ need to develop the capacity that will enable them to make appropriate decisions that promote sustainable development, protect livelihoods and enhance human security. Establishing an African led Risk Management System under the AUC umbrella will significantly enhance emergency preparedness and response capacity of member states. Such a system would also facilitate the formulation of sound human development policies and strategies to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) at the continental level.

In most African countries, it is well recognized that lack of capacity to access reliable information is one of the main factors hampering the formulation of appropriate development policies and implementation of risk management strategies. Several efforts have been attempted by sub-regional economic communities and national governments to strengthen early warning information systems and support disaster management capacities in Africa. However, recent disaster events highlight the need for complementary and effective multi-hazard monitoring systems and platforms facilitating decision making and crisis management at different organisational and governance levels. Furthermore there is need to develop a comprehensive framework for risk analysis and

vulnerability monitoring strategy for Africa.

Risk analysis methodologies that integrate the possible impacts of various natural hazards, such as floods, droughts and earthquakes need to be developed. The applications of geographic information systems have expanded the possibilities for risk assessment of multiple hazards and enable the development of various scenarios and contingency plans. The characteristics of risk are usually presented through risk mapping, frequency distributions, scenario plans and exercises, annualized risk mapping and qualitative measures. Parallel to developments in risk identification systems for natural disasters, similar systems for human-made complex political emergencies are being developed. The two types of disasters are often interlinked and need to be integrated. The existence of a political crisis or armed conflict in a country will often amplify the impact of natural disasters by exhausting community coping mechanisms and limiting government response capacities. In addition, risk assessments need to consider the cumulative effects of multiple hazards and related vulnerabilities.

Africa is currently heavily dependent on ad hoc early warning and monitoring systems that are run by various international agencies, NGOs and UN agencies. Such systems are often not integrated into national and regional strategies and may not be sustainable. There is a need for promoting an African led framework ensuring standardized approaches across countries and regions. Such system would integrate Africa‟s regional organizations‟ information systems creating a mechanism through which information will be fed into the AU Commission for the highest political

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decision making. The AU Commission and NEPAD can then facilitate a continental level risk management facility by creating a coordinated the harmonized process among regional organizations so that it can report to the AU and its member states.

8.0 Climate Change and soaring food prices

Today the world is facing a complex challenge to food security and development as a result of climate change, bio-energy demand and rapidly rising food and energy prices. The rural and urban poor throughout the world are at risk of food insecurity. The impact of this challenge is most acute for poor countries that are net food and energy importers such as most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. This topic has become the main agenda for the UN including WFP, FAO, IFAD and IFAD, and NGOs and National governments. Recently the AU and NEPAD in collaboration with the UN and their partners had organized a workshop to start coordinating responses to these new challenges. The concern is global. The poorest countries and communities will be disproportionately impacted by these new challenges and the economic gains so far achieved could be reversed and future development process derailed.

Addressing the above problems will require rethinking the way in which humanitarian and developmental policies and strategies are framed and implemented as well as the way we traditionally think of agriculture. Addressing the effects of Climate Change and increased prices will require new analytical and operational approaches. Current process of decision making practice that include the various steps such as vulnerability and risk management, agricultural monitoring,

food security early warning, environmental assessments, and resource mobilization and allocation activities need to be reviewed and adjusted and take into consideration the current realities.

The current problem of rising fuel and food price will limit Africa‟s ability to import food. The AU and NEPAD need to address the issue urgently. Here are below we provide some points that could be looked into as a matter of urgency.

All African countries supported by the AU and NEPAD need to review their national preparedness and prevention strategies in view of the new global situation ie. climate change and increased prices of food and energy

Contingency plan must be put in place with appropriately available contingency fund at continental, regional and national level

Enhance government safety nets for the rural but also urban poor as price rises have dramatic impacts on the urban poor. Traditionally food insecurity was mainly thought as rural problem. That has changed now

Encourage the formation of consumers association in urban centers to protect their members interests as well as strengthen farmers associations

Most importantly increase level of food production in Africa. This could be done in three ways (a) increase the productivity and production of the country‟s small holder farmers (b) encourage the private sector to make extensive investment in agriculture in general and irrigated agriculture in particular (c) Government must invest in agriculture focusing on producing for national, regional and continental strategic reserves

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Strengthen or create strategic alliance on food crops trade with neighboring countries, regions and within the continent.

Encourage investment in renewable energies, ie, solar, wind, thermal and small hydro electric, in order to reduce dependency on imported energy.

9.0 Conclusion

The question “Why African Agriculture failed its primary mission: that of nourishing the African populations?” has been answered by first recognizing that Africa‟s agriculture did not fail but Africans failed. We have argued that the main cause for the decline of agriculture is due to lack of investment and policy commitment by the relevant decision makers and political leaders but not lack of agricultural potential. Africa can be liberated from the situation it is now only if African leaders, their advisors and backers are committed to do so. It is a question of leadership and working in unity as Africa. Our continent has all the resources we can wish for. In fact, in the past, Europe was built with African resources and now we might end up building China and other countries that require Africa‟s resources. We need to work together under the AU, with NEPAD and the RECs for a common goal and that is to see African‟s free of hunger. I hope this well happen within our lifetime.

The current global challenge to food security brought about by climate change, bio-energy expansion and rapidly rising food and energy prices adds urgency and requires utmost attention by governments, the humanitarian community and donors. Appropriate policy, strategies and plans that address the challenges as well as

take advantage of the opportunities need to be in place.

These current challenges to food security could become disastrous when superimposed on already existing vulnerable food production systems. Droughts have in the past devastated rural livelihoods causing massive human and livestock displacements and loss of life. Such droughts could happen again and could be more frequent and more intense with climate change. It is with this backdrop that we face the new challenges.

The AU, NEPAD and partner agencies need to work with governments to critically review and look at the various scenarios that could take place as a result of the new challenges. A realistic scenario could be facing a large scale drought that affects several countries simultaneously such as the one of 1983/84. In 1983, thirty countries in the horn of Africa and Sahel reported drought, making it the largest drought since 1970, followed by the drought of 1984 with 24 countries reporting.

In such a situation, regional markets would be constrained with considerable reduction in cross border trade, and adequate resources may not be available to provide humanitarian assistance if several countries are affected at the same time. With current global prices of food and energy and low level of food stocks – importing food will be very expensive – food aid may not be available due to limited surpluses at global level. Is African agriculture ready for such a challenge? Is the AU, NEPAD and the humanitarian community, donors and governments prepared adequately for such a scenario?

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Contributions

The following section

presents opinions

and articles obtained

from interested

individuals or institutions.

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In Eastern Africa, food shortage is not a “Crisis”

. Eastern Africa and Soaring Food Prices: Let Calm Logic Guide

Response

Mafa E. Chipeta1

Panic unlimited

We live in hysterical times. The media is inclined to proclaim apocalypse and the collapse of all civilization at the mildest provocation. Accordingly, the combination of soaring food prices, the oil price surge, and the credit squeeze leading to meltdown of some globally dominant banks has been dramatised to the extent where we are all terrorised and panicked.

We can hardly look at the TV, read a paper, or listen to the radio without being bombarded by food crisis scare stories. As the frequency of international food crisis meetings take on the profile of a growth industry, so does the media coverage they thrive upon. An unprecedented scramble is also afoot for food-inflation statistics. TV pundits bruise our emotions with anecdotes of hardship; so frightening are some scenarios painted that one can be forgiven for believing that there will be no tomorrow. We are bombarded by sensationalist coverage of riots and near-riots about food, by expressions of horror at the selfish throwing away of leftover food in the rich countries, and by harrowing tales of how - for lack of a few cents - the poor daily return home in empty-handed despair even while shop shelves groan under the weight of by now too costly food. For the phenomenon of soaring food prices,

1 FAO Subregional Coordinator for Eastern

Africa, Addis Ababa.

This note carries the views of the writer which

are not necessarily shared by FAO or any other

corporate body within or outside the UN system.

someone has even coined the accolade of “the first globalised crisis”.

Despite the gravity of the matter and my normally serious demeanour, I cannot help laughing sometimes at the spectacle of personalities and media pundits - who themselves never go to bed hungry – apparently wishing to outdo each other in expressions of gloom, concern and solicitation at the plight of the world‟s poor and hungry, so justifying much of their message taking the form of appeals for free food. They offer variety in quoting “the new reality”: one personality will sow alarm and despondency at the looming $200 barrel of oil; another at the

$1000 ton payable for rice; a third will lament the $1000 per ton fertilizer cost; the

last will put icing on the cake by alluding to catastrophic climate change. Africa adds to all this, a still too-prevalent occurrence of conflict and insecurity, which dislocate rural production. Faced with all this, the world is easily caricatured into such a terrorising image that we abandon all logic and sense.

With this state of mass hysteria, we are collectively frightening ourselves into a worse food crisis than the true state of shortage justifies. The oil price rise to over $135 a barrel is instructive: speculation has nearly tripled the price in a year despite only one truly large producer country being heavily dislocated. The reality today is that even if a grain shortage had not existed, media exaggeration would have created it by frightening everyone into anti-social behaviour such as hoarding, speculation, profiteering, national trade protectionism and dishonest dealing of every kind. It is time to regain calm reason and sense and to allow deliberate thought to guide decisions, thus preventing unreasoning fear from leading us into knee-jerk reactions.

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The short-term horizon dominates global responses

In all this, the poor have no options – they must eat what they can and often do without – their numbers will soon far exceed the 854 million FAO regularly reports as going to bed hungry. The better off, however, make matters worse by adopting self-protective and antisocial responses – the instinctive behaviour of any cornered beast seeking survival: a middle-class family buys far more food than it needs and hoards it; traders withhold stocks to profiteer from further price rises; governments ban exports even when their countries have clear surpluses; other governments reduce import controls in order to attract food from abroad – but little is on offer because the surplus countries have imposed bans or restrictions. Panic also breeds a short-term view: knee-jerk interventions focus on offers of free or subsidised food to consumers (especially the urban poor), forgetting to also support production that could guarantee improved food availability within a season.

Furthermore, panic may be leading to a softening of long-cherished economic philosophies: we begin to see formerly strong champions of economic orthodoxy – believers that free markets can cure all ills - now spearheading appeals for free food for the third world. We would at one time have expected them to protest that free food would blunt market signals and undermine incentives to producers by preventing farmers from profiting from high prices. With this scenario, high prices may fail to serve as a wake-up call to boost domestic production, particularly in Africa. Indeed, many pundits appear to automatically imply/assume that Africa will remain helpless and will need help, especially by being fed from elsewhere.

It will be such a cruel irony if it is mostly farmers in North America and Europe (which already have major food surpluses) respond to rising prices with greatest alacrity and boost their production to then continue to feed deficit-laden Africa whose own response will have remained lagging. The danger of this possibility turning into reality is ever-present if (as now), the voices of those who appeal for assisting Africa to boost its domestic African production are drowned by appeals to “feed Africa”. None in the latter camp appear to see the internal contradiction of saying this while also claiming that there is not enough grain to be had for love or money. Among Africa’s friends, donors recognise the importance of agricultural development; however, their budgetary allocations are so much higher and more easily granted for offering food and emergency support than for development or underwriting the cost of critical farm inputs.

Does Eastern Africa also face a crisis?

In Eastern Africa, our corner of the world, we have not been spared dramatically higher food prices and food shortages. But then our subregion is no stranger to food shortages; kindly note that (a) for a long time, although Eastern Africa accounts for only 3 - 4% of the world‟s population, in a “normal” year it consumes some 15-20% of the world‟s food aid; when drought or floods strike, this share has at times reached a quarter; (b) for Africa as a continent, despite its relative abundance of land, water and biological resources, the region consumes up to a third of the world‟s food aid; in addition, it imports every year some US$25 billions worth of agricultural products, mostly food. Furthermore, our continent Africa, which used to be a world leader in exports of a number of commodities, now hardly features in the global “top 10” for any agricultural product; Africa eroded its collective share

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of world agricultural trade from about 8% in the 1960s to less than 3% today.

It is thus wrong to call ours a “crisis” – there is neither suddenness nor unpredictability to what is happening. Africa in general and Eastern Africa in particular cannot claim to have been unaware of the worsening food balances without also confessing to self-deception; it is more correct to say that we walked into the present situation with open eyes. The unkind could even say we are party to the creation of the “crisis”.

In view of this, why have problems not been as profound as at present? Firstly because there has not been the coincidence with oil and financial system dislocation; but also because Africa has been cushioned from reality by the generosity of the world‟s charitable community and by policies which have allowed us to import many commodities for which it could easily become the world‟s lowest-cost producers if it invested correctly. In terms of options for Africa to exercise, what is new is the fact that this time those who sell food will want more money for it and those who traditionally have surpluses to give free may prefer to divert their grain to making alcohol fuel for motor cars, an activity they subsidise so well that its pursuit may prove more attractive than feeding needy Africa. This being the case, the high food prices and food scarcity are best seen as a major opportunity for Africa to grasp; a “wake-up call to boost domestic production” as stated earlier.

Does Eastern Africa realise things have changed?

In Dar-es-Salaam a few years ago, the SADC food security summit was given some interesting data: in that subregion, between 1980 and 2001, cereal output had increased about 3% but population had soared 30%. Much the same picture can be painted for other subregions of sub-

Saharan Africa. In the face of challenging numbers like this, Africa‟s past reaction has been to import food and to get aid. As Africa‟s population continued to soar while agricultural efforts failed to be kept pace, the formerly large cereal surpluses have dwindled and even reversed into deficits in many countries. Consequently, every little drought or flood disrupts supplies, leading to appeals for charity or budgetary assistance for food importation.

So, can Africa and Eastern Africa hope to continue their present posture? So far, donors have been willing to partially or fully underwrite both commercial imports and free food: but the present coincidence of costly food with other economic dislocations (oil, financial sector) raises some questions for Eastern Africa to face squarely:

When the western credit crunch makes major OECD banks go to the wall financially and ask to be bailed out, what balance will their governments strike between supporting the pillars of their own financial systems and giving free food or funding food imports for Africa?

When the industrial countries‟ oil security is threatened they seek fallback domestic energy supplies – even if to substitute for only a little of the petroleum. They have chosen to produce this relatively cheaply from cereals (using wood is possible but more costly) - will they not be tempted to prioritise this outlet for their grain than supplying it to Africa‟s hungry?

When donor financial support proves inadequate, will Africa‟s governments (a) fall back on begging for aid, as often done in the past? (b) dip into already stretched treasury pockets to subsidise only consumer prices [a bottomless pit that would need refilling every year] at a time oil is using up

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currency reserves at an alarming pace?; or (c) tighten their belts and invest at least some of their funds into immediately supporting the cost of fertilisers and quality seeds to boost cereals output by the next season and stabilising producer (not consumer) markets to shore up incentives?

In the medium to long-term, will Africa‟s governments ensure sustained public investment into the rural economy and will they borrow a leaf from OECD‟s policy support for the productivity and profitability of its own farmers, agro-processors and traders?

Will Eastern Africa miss this opportunity again?

We need a calm approach to the so-called “food crisis”. Working as I do for FAO, I cannot pretend that Eastern Africa faces no food problem. I can instead stress that the current panic should be used to advantage by attracting attention to the long-term failures: I can also stress that Eastern Africa has no right to be surprised - the subregion‟s countries are paying the price of long neglect of agriculture and rural development. Given their natural endowments, I can furthermore say that it remains within their power to correct this, if they apply adequate energy and resources (mostly their own) to effecting change. Regrettably, having too easy access to external help may have induced the sense of a “right to be helped” and may have blunted the realisation that food production must be worked for and greater sacrifice must be made for it.

Being a bureaucrat, my knowledge rather than capacity for prayer is my strength; but as a son of the African soil, I cannot help also praying: that God helps Eastern Africa to continue being grateful for external support but protects it from believing that the world owes it a living; that God grants its people the self-confidence to take charge and to more

forcefully exert their own efforts to win the battle over persistent hunger.

While the prayer is being acted upon – since sometimes it takes time - there is compelling need for Eastern Africa itself to engage in serious internal debate about priorities and local commitment. Continental and global meetings that have come and gone and those that are yet to come have enabled the friends of Africa to despairingly dissect and analyse Africa‟s ills. There is no shortage of prescriptions to cure them; instead the need now is to select from the many good ideas and to act on them.

In the long term, no solutions will succeed if the double challenges of conflict and inexorable rapid population increase are not faced squarely and solved. But irrespective of this, in taking action, Eastern Africa must above all strongly support its smallholder producers, including by making production inputs affordable; the time has arrived to enable the smallholder achieve higher sustained productivity and to make a better living than mere subsistence. At the same time, however, it needs to also attract serious commercial investors into the agro-industry sector.

Both smallholders and larger players have their roles and agro-industry sector development requires attention to all scales of investment. The magnitude of challenges calls for greater ambition and the time has come to scale up public interventions that include market regulation for stability and risk moderation as well as heavy public investment into infrastructure and capacity so as to attract serious private capital while also facilitating profitability for smallholder operations.

:

Executive and Managing Editor

Dr Maxwell Mkwezalamba Commissioner for Economic Affairs, AUC

Editor in Chief

Dr René N’Guettia Kouassi Director of Economic Affairs, AUC

Editorial Board

Dr Maxwell Mkwezalamba Commissioner for Economic Affairs, AUC

Dr René N’Guettia Kouassi Director of Economic Affairs, AUC

Mme Habiba Mejri-Cheikh Head of Communication and Information Division, AUC

Mr. Yeo Dossina Statiscian, Department of Economic Affairs, AUC

Mr Baboucarr Koma Policy Officer, Private Sector Development, Department of Economic Affairs, AUC

Ms Hiwot Tifsihit Editorial Assistant, Department of Economic Affairs, AUC

Web site: Mrs Christiane Yanrou, Senior Website Administrator,

Communication and Information Division AUC Mr Asmerom Girma, Web Administrator, Communication and

Information Division AUC Photographer: Mr Engida Wassie, AUC

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