Post on 27-Mar-2015
Coal & CCS in the energy mix
Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétiqueA.-Tristan Mocilnikar
Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès duDélégué Interministériel au Développement DurableCharbon et développement durable
Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006
Laboratoire d’Economie de la Production et de l’Intégration
Internationale
département Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement
FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF
2Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
May the 18th presentation
Energy Demand
Climate change issues
It is not sustainable
Efficient coal and CCS
CCS going forward
Energy Demand
4Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
IEA forecasts a more than 50 % increase at the 2030 horizonOil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy
demand
Coal
Oil
Gas
Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
1971
44%
16%25%
12%
35%
25%
22%
11%5%
Source: IEA
World Primary Energy Demand(IEA Reference Scenario)
5Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region
Almost all the increase in production to 2030
occurs outside the OECD (source: IEA)
3%12%
85%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1971-2002 2002-2030
Mto
e
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
31%
10%
59%
share of total increase (%)
6Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Meet basics needs
32 million
1,041 million
522 million
39 million
1.634 billion people without electricity in developing countries
0
3
6
9
0 2 4 6
Needs in 1990 …
Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants
Conso
mm
ati
on
par
hab
itant
en
tep
Amérique du Nord
Amérique latine
Europe de l’Ouest
Chine …
Asie du SudAfriqueMoyen-Orient
Russie-PECO
Australie Japon
Source : « World Energy Assessment », UNDP, UNDESA, CME, 2001
9 Gtoe
Energy demand
0
3
6
9
0 2 4 6 8 10
Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants
Conso
mm
ati
on
par
hab
itant
en
tep … to 2050
Amérique du Nord
Amérique latine
Europe de l’Ouest
Chine … Asie du SudAfrique
Moyen-Orient
Russie-PECO
Australie Japon …to 20 Gtoe
Energy demand
9Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Energy use with GDP growth
10Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Primary sources of world electricity generation
in 2002 : 16,000 TWh
In IEA 2030 reference scenario : 32,000 TWh
– i. e.: + 100 %
A DOUBLING OF COAL
11Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Annual Average U.S. Energy Prices for the Electric Power Sector
Dollars per million Btu Nominal Dollars Source: Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2006
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
2007
Coal Heavy Fuel Oil Natural Gas
12Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Power production in USA
Source: DOE/EIA 2006
13Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
The Impact on Investment2004-2030
The power sector will need $10 trillion, over 60% of total energy-related investment
T&D
Power Generation
Electricity 61%
Coal 2%
Oil 19%
Gas 18%
54%
46%
Total investment: 17 trillion dollars
WEOSource: IEA
14Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
4700 new GW to be installed before 2030
Inde
Chine
USA+Canada
UE à 15
Yo be built by 2030 (AIE)
Capacity as of 1999 (GW)
55 %
Climate change issues
16Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
x 107 Annex I
Year
N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
x 107 Non-Annex I
Year
N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2
19000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Em
issi
ons
in T
g C
O2
eq
.
19000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Em
issi
ons
in T
g C
O2
eq
.
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
IPCC SRES A1B scenario
Energy / GHG
Energy
25 % Energy
17Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
CO2 emissions world wide
Power Gen Coal28%
Industry and other39%
Power Gen Other12%Transport
21%
Power Gen Coal30%
Industry and other34%
Power Gen Other14%
Transport23%
26 Gt of CO2 in 2005 38 Gt of CO2 in 2030(IEA reference scenario)
Electricity accounts for 40% of CO2 emissions related to energy
CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most
Coal = 11,5 GtCO2 in 2030 ; + 4 GtCO2
Coal is and should remain 2/3 of CO2 emissions for Power Gen
18Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
CO2 Emissions Growth 2004-2030
OECD CO2 emissions growth are about three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but on a per capita basis, OECD emissions will be still two times higher in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
China OECD
Gt
NorthAmerica
Pacific
Europe
0
3
6
9
12
15
ton
nes p
er c
ap
ita
2004
2030
2004
2030
WEO
It is not sustainable
20Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
“This is NotSustainable!”
Source : Claude Mandil, directeur exécutif de l’AIE
World Bank Energy Week, Washington, 7 mars 2006
21Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Substantial global fossil resources
GasGas
CoalCoal
2,000 bnboe2,000 bnboe4,800 bnboe4,800 bnboe
conventionalconventional
yet to findyet to find
unconventionalunconventional
Key:Key:
Source: BP estimates
OilOil
2,000 bnbls2,000 bnbls
R/P = 41 yrs
R/P = 67 yrs
R/P > 200 yrs
22Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Resources scarcity cannot solve by itself
climate change issues
Past emissions
Potential
Efficient coal and CCS
24Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
25Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
31 - 36 %
40 - 45 %
Mid-term: Investment in coal can deliver efficiency enhancements
Feasible today
Possible tomorrow
1950 - 1970 1970 - 1990 1990 - 2010 > 2010
~+30%
25 - 31 %
50, 150, 300 300, 600 up to 1000 Unit size in MW 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 1 2 3 4 5
Source : Euracoal
26Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
World Electricity Power generated GHG emissions generation TWh GtCO2
Business as usual Best available clean
Future best
(32%) technology available clean
(45%) technology
(55%)
2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Coal 6 681 10 374 21082 6 585 11 357 23 080 9 440 16 412 8 355 13 428 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 1 000 942 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 7 714 10 874 1 773 4 571 6 444 4 571 6 444 4 571 6 444
Nuclear 2 632 2 394 12 879 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 16 929 30 466 15 011 23 798 13 926 20 814
Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean
technology
Source : vision paper DIDD
27Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
World Electricity Generation
Power generated TWh
GHG emissions GtCO2
2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 Coal 6 681 10 374 21 082 6 585 8 355 13 428 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 5 473 7 053 1 773 3 172 4 109 Nuclear 2 632 4 635 16 700 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 12 527 18 479
Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean technology +
gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario
Source : vision paper DIDD
28Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
World Electricity Generation
Power generated TWh
GHG emissions GtCO2
2003 2030 2050 2003 2030 2050 Coal 6 681 10 374 21 082 6 585 4 637 1 477 Oil 1 150 1 064 1 002 1 042 1 000 942 Gas 3 232 5 473 7 053 1 773 3 172 4 109 Nuclear 2 632 4 635 16 700 Hydro 2 649 3 458 4 722 Other renewable 317 1 596 10 936 Total 16 661 26 600 61 495 9 400 8 809 6 527
Illustrative simulation bases :Future best available clean technology + capture and sequestration (90% rate of
success) + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario
Source : vision paper DIDD
29Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Main conclusions of the global vision paper
The full deployment of Ultra Low emission technologies is therefore required, if one want to keep coal running and limit GHG emissions.
• Those « ultra low emission » technologies require technologies such as CCS
We need to accelerate the deployment of « ultra low emission » coal technologies
But, to arrive to such a result, it is necessary to increase efforts in several fields.
• Existing technologies at the laboratory stage must be transferred to demonstration phase.
• An economic framework must be built in order to make profitable their deployments.
• The questions of acceptability & environmental impacts must be addressed (now).
CCS going forward
31Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Several winning technologies to capture CO2
Availability
?
Now
2015-2020
2010-2015
Others
Solvents
Chemical
Looping
Oxy-firing
IGCC with
capture2010-2015
Source : ALSTOM
32Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system
Source : STATOIL
33Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
STORAGE POTENTIAL FOR CO2IN SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF THE
WORLD
Source: J. Bradshaw and T. Dance, 2004: Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world’s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies, September 5-9, 2004, Vancouver, Canada.
34Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Significant WW R&D programs
Most technologies have been tested in labs
R&D funding from institutions and companies
Demonstration projects (20 to 50 MW) ongoing or under preparation– Vatenfall in Germany, Total in France, FutureGen project
in the USA …
International Cooperations– IPCC (2005) special report on CCS – Carbon Storage Leadership Forum (CSLF) – IEA GHG : IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
(Implementing Agreements are open to Non-OECD countries)
35Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Political level
G8 Gleneagles plan of action
China Summit (5th September 2005) : Joint Declaration on Climate Change & Energy
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
36Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Significant European R&D programs
substantial global fossil resourcesIncaCO2
COACH
ACCSEPT
Cooperation
Trust
37Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Many french corporations involved
38Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (1) Bassin Parisien
Oil fields : greenGas fields : red
Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1
39Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Parentis
Lacq
A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (2) Bassin Aquitain
Oil fields : greenGas fields : red
Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1
40Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
France has a long and successful experience
in underground storage
Etrez
Tersanne
Manosque I et II
Izaute
Lussagnet
ChémeryCéré-La-Ronde
Soings-en-Sologne
St Illiers
St Clair/Epte
Gournay/Aronde
Germigny-ss-Coulombs
Beynes
Landes de Siougos
Manosque Geosel
Hauterives
Alsace Sud
Trois-Fontaines
Lavera-Martigues
Lavera Martigues
Petit Couronne
(P)
Donges
(P)
Cerville-Velaine
Sennecey-le-Grand
Grand-Serre
Viriat
Chémery-Ouest
(P)
Gargenville
(P)
(P)
Gaz NaturelGaz NaturelConcessions en cours : En aquifèreEn cavités salinesEn gisements déplétésDemandes de concessionEn aquifèreEn cavités salinesAutorisations de recherchesEn aquifèreEn cavités salines
Hydrocarbures liquides : concessionsHydrocarbures liquides : concessionsEn cavités minées ou minesEn cavités salines
Produits chimiques de base : concessionsProduits chimiques de base : concessionsEn cavités salines
10 Gm3
(500 gas storage sites in the world = 164 Gm3)
Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1
41Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
42Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
ANR projects launched in 2005
TransCO2
Capture & Transport
Storage
CAP-CO2amines, adsorbates
CLC-MATchemical looping
GeocarboneINJECTIVITE CO2 injection
GeocarboneINTEGRITE confinement
GeocarboneMONITORING monitoring
GeocarbonePICOREF Sites evaluation
GeocarboneCARBONATATION Long term behaviour
CO2-SUBLIMantisublimation
8,3 M€
Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1
43Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
Future Demonstration Projects in France
““PICOREF”PICOREF”A CCS project supported by the French Network of Oil & Gas Technologies (RTPG):•understanding the CO2 fate during and after injection•looking for an experimental site in the SE of Paris Basin (Deep saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields)
““Lacq” Project Lacq” Project announced by Total announced by Total in Sept 2005 (50M€)in Sept 2005 (50M€)
Courtesy of Gestco project
Source : MinEFI/DGEMP/SD1
44Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
CO2 Storage Operation by Gaz de France
RECOPOL (EU)K12B (CRUST)
SNOVHIT
45Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
CCS by Total
46Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
IFP and CO2
Domestic actions The CO2 Club The PICOREF project
European projects CO2 from capture to storage: IFP as leader of the European CASTOR project IFP on the front line of the European fight against CO2: FP5 (RECOPOL, ICBM, SACS, NGCAS, CO2NET) and FP6 (CASTOR, ENCAP) projects Europe in the international CO2 capture and storage development concert: the INCA-CO2 project
International programs CSLF GHG (IEA)
Research projects conducted in partnership with industrialists: JIPs (Joint Industry Projects)
JIP WIN CO2 JIP CO2 SECURE
47Contact : antoine-tristan.mocilnikar@mines.org
BRGM involvement in CO2 projects
BRGM stands for Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières
JOULE II project (1993-1995) "The underground disposal of carbon dioxide":
SACS (Phase 1) (1998-1999) and SACS2 (Phase 2) (2000-2002)
GESTCO (2000-2003)
NASCENT (2001-2003)
WEYBURN (2001-2004)
CO2STORE (2003-2006)
CO2NET (2001-2002) and CO2NET2 (2003-2005)
SAMCARDS (2002-2003)
PICOR (RTPG Subproject A) (2002-2004)
RTPG Subproject B (2004)
RTPG Subproject C (2004)
PICOREF (2005-2006)
CASTOR (2004-2008)
CO2GEONET (2004-2009)
InCA-CO2 "International Co-ordination Action on CO2 Capture and Storage" (2004-2007)
ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking project) (2004-2009)
ICSFFEM (CO2 emission reduction in phosphate production) (2002-2003)
SEQMIN (CO2 sequestration by mineral carbonation) (2004)
ProCO2 (Processes for management of industrial CO2 emissions) (2005°
Coal & CCS in the energy mix
Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétiqueA.-Tristan Mocilnikar
Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès duDélégué Interministériel au Développement DurableCharbon et développement durable
Grenoble, jeudi 18 mai 2006
Laboratoire d’Economie de la Production et de l’Intégration
Internationale
département Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement
FRE 2664 CNRS – UPMF