La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière par Nordine Ait-Laoussine Alger/Algérie Le...
-
Upload
zoe-gonzalez -
Category
Documents
-
view
111 -
download
4
Transcript of La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière par Nordine Ait-Laoussine Alger/Algérie Le...
La nouvelle donnede l’industrie pétrolière et gazière
par
Nordine Ait-Laoussine
Alger/AlgérieLe 23 février 2013
N13-02.00
10e SessionForum d’Alger
Plan de présentation
• Introduction
• Rétrospective des principaux évènements
• La nouvelle donne pétrolière- Implications pour l’OPEP
• La nouvelle donne gazière- Implications pour l’Algérie
• Conclusions
N13-02.01
The world’s center of gravity is shifting to Asia
N13-02.02
Oil Consumption (in mmbd) Gas Consumption (in bcm)
2000 2011 ê 2000 2011 êOECD 48.6 46.4 -2.2 1'356 1'534 +178China 4.6 9.2 +4.6 10 130 +120Other Asia 7.8 11.0 +3.2 197 460 +263Middle East 4.7 7.4 +2.7 187 403 +216Other Non-OECD 11.5 14.8 +3.3 672 825 +153World 77.2 88.8 +11.6 2'422 3'352 +930
GDP Ranking PIW TOP 50 Ranking2000 2011 2000 2011
1. USA 1. USA Petrochina (9) CNPC (4)2. Japan 2. China Pertamina (10) ONGC (19)3. Germany 3. Japan Petronas (24) Petronas (20)4. UK 4. Germany ONGC (32) Sinopec (21)5. France 5. Brazil Sinopec (33) Pertamina (28)6. China 6. UK CPC (49) CNOOC (33)
ê ê4.8 mmbd 6.2 mmbd120 bcm 213 bcm
Sources: BP Statistics, IEA and PIW
IOCs are struggling to meet their reserves and production targets
N13-02.03
Sources: Companies’ annual reports and PIW
% of World Reserves3.7
Higher oil prices have ledto spectacular growth in oil and gas output
N13-02.04
(1) Including biofuels and processing gainsSources: BP Statistics and IEA
Oil Production Growth (mmbd) Gas Production Growth (bcm)
2000 2012 ê 2000 2012
Russia 6.5 10.7 +4.2 Middle East 208 526 +318
Other FSU 1.5 3.0 +1.5 Russia + Other FSU 683 800 +117
USA 8.0 9.1 +1.1 USA 543 651 +108
Canada 2.7 3.8 +1.1 China 27 103 +76
China 3.3 4.2 +0.9 Africa 130 203 +73
Brazil 1.3 2.2 +0.9 Latin America 100 168 +68
Colombia 0.7 1.0 +0.3 Europe 256 236 -20
Other Non-OPEC 22.5 19.3 -3.2 Other 466 589 +123
Total Non-OPEC(1) 46.5 53.3 +6.8 Total World 2'413 3'276 +863
Les cours du brut ont connu une volatilité extrêmeentre 2007 et 2010
N13-02.05
US $/bl
Euro/bl
Moyennes mensuelles
Sources: EIA and Oil Daily
Brent Crude Oil
IEA and OPEC long-term outlooks
(1) Including biofuel consumption and bunkers in the case of the IEA(2) Including biofuels and processing gains(3) including NGLs, GTLs and extra-heavy crudes in the case of OPEC
IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 OPEC World Oil Outlook 2012
(New Policies Scenario) (Reference Case)
(in mmbd) 2011 2020 ê 2010 2020 ê
Global Demand(1) 88.8 96.6 +7.8 87.0 96.9 +9.9
Global Non-OPEC Supply(2) 52.2 58.9 +6.7(4) 52.3 58.6 +6.3(4)
OPEC Non-Crude Supply(3) 6.4 8.8 +2.4 5.0 7.6 +2.6
Call on OPEC Crude 29.3 29.8 +0.5 29.3 30.9 +1.6
N13-02.06
4) Main contributors to Non-OPEC Supply Growth (mmbd)
2011 2020 ê
USA 8.1 11.1 +3.0
Brazil 2.2 4.0 +1.8
Canada 3.5 4.9 +1.4
Kazakhstan 1.6 2.1 +0.5
Colombia 0.9 1.2 +0.3
mmbd
Sources: IEA (Oil Market Report), OPEC (World Oil Outlook) and Nalcosa’s estimates
OPEC Capacity
Demand for OPEC-12 Oil
Demand for OPEC-11 Oil
mmbd
Iraq
The call on OPEC-11 oil is entering a significant long-term decline
N13-02.07
World gas demand will be drivenby continued rapid expansion in Asia
N13-02.08
Source: IEA WEO New Policies Scenario
(in bcm) 2010 2025 ê
Non-OECD China 110 390 +280 India 64 116 +52 Other Asia 219 295 +76 Total Asia 393 801 +408 Middle East 376 538 +162 Africa 103 153 +50 Russia 466 508 +42 Other Non-OECD 372 472 +100 Total Non-OECD 1'710 2'472 +762 OECD USA 680 736 +56 Europe 569 619 +50 Other OECD 348 441 +93 Total OECD 1'597 1'796 +199
Total World 3'307 4'268 +961
Trends in international LNG Trade
N13-02.09
2010 2015 2020 2025
Qatar 76 Qatar 103 Australia 110 Australia 115
Indonesia 31 Australia 60 Qatar 105 Qatar 105
Malaysia 30 Indonesia 30 Nigeria 38 USA 50
Australia 25 Malaysia 30 Russia 35 Canada 40
Nigeria 24 Nigeria 30 Algeria 30 Nigeria 40
Trinidad 20 Algeria 25 Malaysia 30 Russia 40
Algeria 19 Trinidad 20 USA 30 Algeria 35
Russia 13 Russia 15 Indonesia 28 Mozambique 35
Oman 11 USA 15 Canada 25 Malaysia 30
Others 51 Others 52 Trinidad 17 Indonesia 25
Mozambique 15 Trinidad 15
Others 30 Others 35
300 380 493 565
Globalisation does not meanLNG prices would collapse from current levels
N13-02.10
Conclusions
• La nouvelle donne de l’industrie pétrolière et gazière comporte des éléments rassurants et des motifs de préoccupation.
• Eléments rassurants :- Capacité d’adaptation de l’industrie au nouvel environnement- Progrès technologiques- Prix du pétrole assurant l’équilibre offre/demande à long terme- Eclipse de la théorie du «peak oil»
• Motifs de préoccupation :– Extrême volatilité des cours– Financiarisation des marchés pétroliers– Indécision sur la protection de l’environnement– Excédent de capacité OPEP /«Peak demand»– Incertitude sur les prix du gaz exporté
N13-02.11