Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre

The global economic crisis – Including children in the policy responseODI-UNICEF, London, November 9-10, 2009

Burkina Faso: Lacina Balma and Samuel KaboreCameroon: Christian Emini and Paul Ningaye

Ghana: Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke and Daniel TwerefouRegional: Sami Bibi, John Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Ismaël Fofana and Luca Tiberti

Commissioned by UNICEF’s West and Central Africa Regional Office

The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research network• Capacity building, research funding and promotion of developing country

researchers• Research grants (and scientific support) to conduct policy research on

poverty issues.• Open and competitive global call for proposals (deadline: Jan. 6, 2010)• 150 projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America (45.7% female; 22.5% under

30): Since 2002• Activities: training workshops, study visits, distance support, general

meetings, national and international policy conferences, working papers, journal articles, policy briefs, presentations in international conferences, newsletters.

• Child welfare topics: Policy impact evaluation, community-based poverty monitoring, macro-micro shock and policy simulations, multidimensional poverty analysis, implementing the capabilities approach, incidence analysis…

• Offices: Africa (Dakar), Asia (Manila), Latin America (Lima) and Quebec.• Funding: AusAID, CIDA and IDRC www.pep-net.org

Export prices/demand

Import prices

Impacts

Household (micro models)

Remittances

FDI

Foreign aid

Input prices

Consumer prices

National economy (CGE model)

Producer prices

Child welfare: monetary poverty, hunger, schooling, labor, health

Employ-ment

Objective: Simulate child welfare impacts of the global crisis and policy responses in Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Ghana (and S. Africa)

Methodology1. Macro impacts: CGE model capturing main channels of impact of the global

crisis on the national economy, notably prices, wages and employment.2. Child welfare impacts

– Monetary poverty: Based on changes in prices, wages, employment and remittances

– Hunger (caloric adequacy): Consumption behavior + nutritional tables– School/child labor participation: Econometric estimation: f(real income)– Health access/choice of supplier: Econometric estimation: f(real income)

3. Simulations– Business as usual (no crisis): historic trends (6-8 years)– Crisis

- 2009: Various sources (IMF, UNCTAD, national, etc.)- 2010: Stagnation, except import prices- 2011: Back to historic growth trends

– Policy response (financed by foreign aid equal to 1% of 2008 GDP) Food subsidies Child cash transfers: proxy means, no administrative costs, sharing

Impacts on monetary poverty and hunger in BF

-6

-5-4

-3-2

-1

01

2

3

BaU Crisis Food subsidy Cash transfer

Change in child monetary rate (% points) compared to the base year (36.3%)

2009 2010 2011

-6-5-4-3-2-10123

BaU Crisis Food subsidy Cash transfer

Change in hunger (% points) compared to the base year (64.9)

2009 2010 2011

Education and Child Labour: 6 to 10 years

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in net participation rate, 6-10 years old (% points) compared to

the base year (32.4%)

2009 2010 2011

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in child labour, 6-10 years old (% points) compared to the base year

(40.3%)

2009 2010 2011

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in child labour, 11-14 years old (% points) compared to the base year

(52.6%)

2009 2010 2011

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in net participation rate, 11-14 years old (% points) compared to the

base year (37.6%)

2009 2010 2011

Education and Child Labour: 11 to 14 years

Health: 0 to 14 years

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in consultation rate among ill children, 0-14 years old, (% points), in

comparison with base year (67.6%)

2009 2010 2011

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer

Change in consultation rate at traditional healers (% points) in

comparison with the base year (16.7%)

2009 2010 2011

Targetting (proxy means)Cash transfers target predicted poor children = f(demographics, housing conditions,

durable goods, region): easily observable and non-manipulable characteristics

Predicted statusnational urban rural

Actual status

non-poor poor

non-poor poor

non-poor poor

Burkina non-poor 63.1 36.9 74.7 25.3 59.4 40.6 poor 23.4 76.6 9.6 90.4 24.4 75.6Cameroon non-poor 70.0 30.0 93.3 6.7 41.7 58.3 poor 9.9 90.1 58.1 41.9 5.1 94.9Ghana non-poor 60.8 39.2 67.9 32.1 55.0 45.0 poor 19.2 80.8 23.9 76.1 17.9 82.1

Exclusion errors

Inclusion errors

Cash transfer amount

Burkina Faso12340 CFA francs per child

Cameroon:21065 CFA francs per child

Ghana:23.10 cedis per child

Take-home lessons•Crisis brings many shocks: imports, exports, FDI, aid, remittances•Complex impacts: wages, employment, self-employment income, consumer prices•Strongly increases monetary poverty and hunger (up to 10 percentage points)•Mildly reduces schooling and recourse to (modern) health services (up to 1 percentage point), while increasing child labor•Food subsidies marginally offset the impacts of the crisis•(Well-) targeted cash transfers are far more effective•(Pursuit of fiscal balance further (slightly) worsens the impacts)•Future work: focus subsidies on poor child foods, focus CTs on youngest children, other financing (domestic taxes, deficit, other cuts), other dimensions (mortality, morbidity, nutritional status, etc.)

Impact of the global crisis on child povertyin West and Central Africa