Climats récent et futur du Nunavik · interactions in the Arctic atmosphere. Since 2011, he works...
Transcript of Climats récent et futur du Nunavik · interactions in the Arctic atmosphere. Since 2011, he works...
Climats récent et futur
du NunavikPatrick Grenier
pour le groupe
Scénarios et services climatiques
Ouranos, Montréal, Québec
Kuujjuaq, Québec
19 avril 2018
Content
Context
- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik
Technical details
- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble
A selection of representative results
- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates
Concluding remarks
2 / 13
Content
Context
- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik
Technical details
- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble
A selection of representative results
- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates
Concluding remarks
The Ouranos consortium
3 / 13
Structure: several complementarygroups, with VIA covering 10 programmes
Foundation: 2001
Headquarters: Montreal
Staff: ~ 50 employeesNetwork: ~ 450 researchers
Mission: acquire and develop knowledge on climate change issues to help policy-makers identify, evaluate, promote and implement adaptation strategies
Climate scenarios and services
Climate simulations and analysis
Agriculture, commercial fisheries and aquaculture
Ecosystems and biodiversity
Energy
Built environment
Maritime environment
Northern environment
Water management
Forest resources
Health
Tourism
Vuln
era
bilitie
s, im
pacts
and a
dapta
tion (V
IA)
International
Scientific integration and training
Economy
Some climatic particularities of the North
4 / 13
• Arctic amplification
(i.e. larger warming and moistening than at lower latitudes)
• Scarcity of observations(except some satellite measurements)
• Relative sea-level projected to fall at many locations
(e.g. fall of ~ 20 to 60 cm near Kuujjuaq by 2100 under high emissions)
• Particular day/night durations
• Omnipresence of the cryosphere(i.e. sea ice, permafrost, icebergs, etc.)
A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik
5 / 13
Tome I: Methods, some results (climate, hydrology, bioclimates), impacts on flora and fauna.
Tome II: Detailed climatic cartography and time series.
Funded by:
Authors and collaborators:
Steering committee:
Content
Context
- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik
Technical details
- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble
A selection of representative results
- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates
Concluding remarks
Stations: few but useful
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Stations with enough data for:
a) temperature (13)b) total precipitation (18)c) snow cover (16)d) frozen precipitation (12)
Covering the territory necessitatesrelying on gridded products, likereanalysis (physics-based system incorporating various observations).
Stations are useful to select a reference among the differentavailable gridded products(evaluation).
a) b)
c) d)
Many indicators, two reference products
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Reference products
for T and Ptot
GMFD (Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset for Land Surface Modeling)
for Pfroz and snow cover
median of the RCMs(regional climatemodels) used for future changes
Climateindicators (37+)
Temperature (T)21+ indicators
annual mean Tmonthly mean Tthawing season onsetthawing season endthawing season durationthawing degree-daysfreezing degree-daysnb of freeze-thaw cyclesgrowth season onsetgrowth season endgrowth season durationgrowing degree-daysnb of warm daysnb of warm nights
More…
Frozen precipitation(Pfroz)
4+ indicators
annual Pfroz
monthly Pfroz
annual ratio Pfroz / Ptot
monthly ratio Pfroz / Ptot
Snow cover4 indicators
snow cover onsetsnow cover endsnow cover durationannual maximum snow
depth
List of indicators establishedby project collaborators and potential users.
Total precipitation (Ptot)8+ indicators
annual Ptot
monthly Ptot
maximum daily Ptot
maximum 5-day Ptot
95th percentile 99th percentilenb of days with intense Ptot
nb of days with extreme Ptot
+
Simulation ensemble
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Regional model Global pilot RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Resolution*
CCCma-CanRCM4 CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.22o
DMI-HIRHAM5 ICHEC-EC-EARTH √ √ 0.44o
Ouranos-CRCM5CCCma-CanESM2m2 √ 0.22o
CCCma-CanESM2m3 √ 0.22o
CCCma-CanESM2m4 √ 0.22o
SMHI-RCA4 CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.44o
ICHEC-EC-EARTH √ √ 0.44o
UQAM-CRCM5 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR/MR √ √ 0.44o
CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.44o
An ensemble of 15 regional simulations is used, covering "optimistic" (RCP4.5) and "pessimistic" (RCP8.5) emission scenarios.
grids over North America*simulations are regridded on the GMFD product at 0.25o (~ 30 km)
Content
Context
- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik
Technical details
- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble
A selection of representative results
- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates
Concluding remarks
Nunavik-scale cartography
9 / 13
What does this figure mean for Kuujjuaq ?
25-yr average T in April
During reference period:around -9 oC
In 2040-2064 under RCP4.5:likely -7 oC
[-9 oC to -4 oC]
In 2040-2064 under RCP8.5:likely -5 oC
[-9 oC to -4 oC]
Site-specific time series
10 / 13
Selection of 22 sites of interest:- villages, mines, outfitters, road, bay
Evolution figures for 4 indicators:- annual mean T- growth season duration- annual Ptot
- snow cover duration
Not at the local scale, but at ~ 30 km
Update of the bioclimates
11 / 13
↗ T and ↗ Ptot
Possible that:
- « polar » class will disappear
- « mild sub-polar » class will emerge
Highly probable that:
- « long growing season » class will emerge
- « semi-arid » class will disappear
(previous version was for 1966-1996)
Concluding remarks
12 / 13
• A long list of indicators as user-oriented as possible.
• Detailed information in ~ 158 cartography figures, ~ 45 time series figures, and
other types of figures and tables (e.g. hydrological indicators, bioclimates).
• Work limited by the availability of in situ measurements and the number of regional
simulations, but best possible reference climates and plausible ranges of change.
• Users are encouraged to communicate to Ouranos the type of climate-related
information that is useful for them.
Mailhot A. et Chaumont D. (2017) Élaboration du portrait bioclimatique futur du Nunavik – Tome I. Rapport présenté au Ministère de la forêt, de la faune et des parcs. Ouranos. 216 pages.
Chaumont D. et Mailhot A. (2017) Élaboration du portrait bioclimatique futur du Nunavik – Tome II. Rapport présenté au Ministère de la forêt, de la faune et des parcs. Ouranos. 215 pages.
@ouranos_cc
Ouranos
www.ouranos.ca
PATRICK GRENIER
(Head of the Climate scenarios and services group)
nakurmiik
Bio du présentateur et court résumé
Courte biographie du présentateur [4 lignes en français et en anglais]
Patrick Grenier a obtenu un doctorat en sciences de l'environnement de l'Université du Québec à Montréal en 2010, avec une thèse portant surles interactions entre la pollution et les nuages dans l'Arctique. Depuis 2011, il travaille dans le groupe Scénarios et services climatiquesd'Ouranos, et le climat arctique demeure l'un des ses principaux sujets d'intérêt.
Patrick Grenier obtained a Ph.D in environmental sciences from Université du Québec à Montréal in 2010, with a thesis on cloud-pollutioninteractions in the Arctic atmosphere. Since 2011, he works in the Climate scenarios and services group at Ouranos, and the Arctic climateremains one of his main interests.
Titre [français et anglais]Climats récent et futur du NunavikRecent and future Nunavik climates
Court résumé de la présentation [4 lignes en français et en anglais]
La présentation portera sur des travaux récents d'Ouranos visant d'une part à caractériser le climat récent du Nunavik et d'autre part àdévelopper un ensemble de scénarios futurs plausibles pour cette région. L'accent sera entre autres mis sur les façons de pallier la rareté desobservations dans le Nord, ainsi que sur la cartographie des changements futurs dans les indicateurs de température, de pluie et de neige.
This presentation will concern recent work at Ouranos for characterizing recent-past Nunavik climate and developing an ensemble of plausiblefuture climate scenarios for this region. The emphasis will notably be on the alternative datasets used to compensate the paucity ofobservations in the North, as well as on maps of future changes in temperature, rain and snow indicators.