The relevance of ccs as a climate policy instrument in vietnam
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THE RELEVANCE OF CCS AS A CLIMATE POLICY INSTRUMENT IN VIETNAM Presented by: Nhan T. Nguyen * (co-authors: Minh Ha-Duong and Didier Bonijoly) * Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED/EHESS) *Van Xuan Center of Research in Economics, Management, and Environment (VCREME) The 30 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Washington DC, 12 October 2011
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The 30 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Washington DC, 12 October 2011. The relevance of ccs as a climate policy instrument in vietnam. Presented by: Nhan T. Nguyen * (co-authors: Minh Ha-Duong and Didier Bonijoly ). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The relevance of ccs as a climate policy instrument in vietnam
THE RELEVANCE OF CCS AS A CLIMATE POLICY INSTRUMENT IN VIETNAM
Presented by: Nhan T. Nguyen *(co-authors: Minh Ha-Duong and Didier Bonijoly)
* Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED/EHESS)*Van Xuan Center of Research in Economics, Management, and Environment (VCREME)
The 30th USAEE/IAEE North American ConferenceWashington DC, 12 October 2011
CONTENTS
Promising storage capacity estimates
1
E IRP simulation: Expansion of coal, next 30 years
2
Potential of CCS at Power Plants in 2040
3
4
2
Introduction
5 Concluding remarks
PRESENT SITUATION
3
2000-2009:7.3yr-1 GDP growth
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
ServicesIndustryAgriculture
331,212 km2,3200 km coastline 87 million population, 2009
Power generation (2000-2009) grew faster
Capacity (2009)
Generation (2009)
Average growth rate Total generation Thermal generation
18.9 GW 85 TWh 15% 19%
TRENDS
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Demand growth: 13.5%-16.6%, next decade Baseline scenario: coal generation share: 32% (2015) to
68% (2040)
Source: Institute of Energy (2008), NLDC (2010)
Power generation sources by 2015
Hydro
Coal
Oil, Gas
Wind, Solar,
Geothermal Nuclear
Biomass
Primary fuel supplies for electricity sector
PROMISING GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OPPORTUNITIES
Most promising fields: Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): Cuu
Long river basin Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery
(ECBM): Quang Ninh coal basin Storing CO2 into depleted oil fields: in
Cuu Long, Song Hong, and the North end
5Figure: 5 major basins in Vietnam identified for storage opportunities
Specification requirement:• Sediment formations deeper than 1 km• They should be 20 kilometers away
from major faults or known oil fields• No more than 100 kilometers away
from a CO2 source of > 2.5 MtCO2/yr
Largest storage capacity: 20 to 60 Gt of CO2
Utsira reservoir
INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING (IRP)
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IRP ModelExternality cost
CCS constraints
Fuels constraints
Optimal expansion plan
Probabilistic estimation of system
Supply-side& CCS Data
Carbon values
Plant Emission Factors
CO2, SO2 and NOx Emissions
Total planningCost
Structure of technologies& Fuels mix
Electricity prices(LRAC &AIC)
Demand-sideData
Load curve & load demand
Price elasticityof demand
Source: Shrestha and Nguyen, 2003
The analytical flowchart of the IRP model
CARBON PRICES SCENARIOS
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US$/tCO2 2010 2040
Low (LCV) 5 20
Moderate (MCV) 5 35
High (HCV) 5 50
Very high (VHCV) 5 60
9
2010201
2201
4201
6201
8202
0202
2202
4202
6202
8203
0203
2203
4203
6203
8204
00
50
100
150GW
Coal based power capacityGas based power capacityOthers
Source: the IRP simulation results
EXPANSION OF COAL GENERATION, NEXT 30 YEARS
Domestic coal consumption
Imported coal consumption
0200400600800
1000120014001600 1499
981
Cumulative coal consumption, 2010-2040 (million tons)
Greater dependence on large-scale coal for future expansion, 2010-
2040
Cumulative electricity generation, 2010-2040: 14,106TWh
Coal 49%
Gas 19%
Others33%
BASELINE WITHOUT CCS: EMISSIONS FROM POWER GENERATION
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Cumulative emissions
(2010-2040)
CO2 7.2 Gt
SO2 15.3 Mt
NOx 8.0 Mt
Source: the IRP simulation results
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Annual CO2 emission from power sector (million tons)
The Electricity and Heat sector would emit 300 MtCO2/yr (2010-2040) 3 tCO2/yr/capita. This level is not sustainable.
COSTS OF CCS IN THE IRP SIMULATION FOR VIETNAM
Integrating CCS into the IRP model Power generation plants with more than 2.5 Mton of CO2 emissions per year opportunity to be selected for carbon capture and storage
deployment
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Sub PC-
CCS
Sub PC-
CCS ready
Super PC-
CCS
Super PC-
CCS ready
IGCC-
CCS
NGCC-
CCS
2025
Reference plant TCR (US$/kW) 1184 1184 1328 1328 1581 684
Capture plant TCR (US$/kW) 1940 1834 2293 2184 2050 1100
Cost of CO2capture (US$/tCO2) 42.1 39.2 43.8 40.8 28 39.3
Cost of CO2 avoided (US$/tCO2) 45.4 42.5 47.1 44.1 31.3 41.9
2040
Reference plant TCR (US$/kW) 1100 1100 1200 1200 1390 671
Capture plant TCR (US$/kW) 1800 1702 1860 1771 1880 991
Cost of CO2 captured (US$/tCO2) 37.2 34.5 31.2 28.7 23.8 36.1
Cost of CO2 avoided (US$/tCO2) 40.0 37.3 33.9 31.5 26.5 38.6
Costs of capture based power plants
Source: the IRP simulation results
IRP RESULTS: CCS AS A ABATEMENT OPTION
No CCS plants selected in Low Carbon Value scenario (LCV) 12Source: the IRP simulation results
35
50
60
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2.1
3.6
52.6
153.8
154.3
163.4
Total generation capacity
GW
Carb
on p
rice
in 2
040
(US$
/tCO
2) CCS enters after 2030 at ≥25US$/tCO2: but few
40-60US$/tCO2: 32% capacity, 20% abatement
NOT CHEAPER THAN RENEWABLES BUT CCS+EOR COULD BE COST-EFFECTIVE ABATEMENT
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renewables (6-10 US$/tCO2) cheaper than CCS (≥ 25 US$/tCO2) in IRP model
CCS + enhanced oil recovery (EOR) net benefits 10-16 US$/tCO2 based oil price 2003 (IPCC, 2005) Proposal at White Tiger
Oil Field in Vietnam:
CO2 capture from (NGCC) plants, transport pipeline, storage in offshore/onshore fields, enhanced oil recovery
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Vietnam has a promising carbon emissions storage
capacity
CCS not cost-effective if carbon price below 25
US$/tCO2 by 2030. But become a key abatement
option (20%) if the price increases 40-60 US$/tCO2
from 2030 to 2040
Without EOR, CCS is not cheaper than renewables
Need for new policy14
