28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 1 Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts...

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 1 Les pics mondiaux de production du ptrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des nergies Pierre-Ren BAUQUIS Professeur Associ ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associs) Expert auprs de l'Acadmie des technologies CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 2 PARTIE 1 UN POINT SUR LE PICS DU PETROLE ET DU GAZ

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 3 Brief summary of past findings and views The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves". Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil". The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are : Ultimate reserves concept Evolution of past exploration performances and production curves (creaming curves) King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 4 Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem Oil world reserves Gas world reserves 1973 Years of consumptionGTOE consumptionGTOE2000865230481401404065 PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 5 What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means World oil production (Mbep/d) 30 years R/P = 40 years ! ? ?? this area = already used this area = reserves left

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 6 But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests a different picture Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates have practically remained flat. G barrels 1973 Ultimate reserves (conventional crude, worldwide) 2000 - 3000 2000 source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 7 Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000 * Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discovered Gb Pratt (1942) Duce (1946) Pouge (1946) Weeks (1948) Leverson (1949) Weeks (1949) MacNaughton (1953) Hubbert (1956) Weeks (1958) Weeks (1959) Hendricks (1965) Ryamn (1967) Shell (1968) Weeks (1968) Hubbert (1969) Moody (1970) Weeks (1971) Warman (1972) Bauquis (1972) Schweinfurth (1973) Linden (1973) Bonillas (1974) Howitt (1974) Moody (1975) WEC (1977) Nelson (1977) De Bruyne (1978) Klemme (1978) Nehring (1978) Nehring (1979) Halbouty (1979) Meyerhoff (1979) Roorda (1979) Halbouty (1979) WEC (1980) Strickland (1981) Coliti (1981) Nehring (1982) Masters (1983) Kalinin (1983) Martin (1984) Ivanhoe (1984) Masters (1987) Campbell (1991) Masters (1991) Townes (1993) Petroconsult. (1993) Masters (1994) USGS (2000) 194019491950195919601969197019791980198919902000 HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 8 THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE USA (*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is forwarded by 33 years Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 9 Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbons

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 10 Schistes bitumineux Pays de lOCDE 2005 Pays de lOPEC 2005 Pays non OCDE non OPEC 1815105 2005 2020 2050 2100 8 3 6 1 6 4 4 1 3 5 1 1 1 3 0.5 Production par pays ou Zones gographiques (hydrocarbures liquides naturels Production par pays ou Zones gographiques (hydrocarbures liquides naturels USA Canada Mer du Nord Autres Sous total 91274 Arabie 3.5532Iran 2.5542Irak 111 0.5 Autres 2321 Koweit 2454 Venezuela 231 0.5 Algrie + Libye 231 0.5Nigria 341 0.5 Emirats + Qatar 274025 15 Sous total Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbadjan, Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie, Brsil, Congo, etc 4 / 81 5 / 98 3.5 / 69 2.6 / 50Total Monde GTep / mb/d 36433020 410 Prospective de la production ptrolire mondiale (first draft : final draft objective end 2006)

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 11 Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwide

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 12 A few peak oil websites 3w.peakoil.net 3w.aspofrance.org 3w.oilcrisis.com 3w.peakoil.com ASPO France members (June 2006): Jean Laherrre (formerly Total) Pierre-Ren Bauquis (fy Total) Carlos Cramez (fy Total) Jean-Luc Wingert Xavier Chavannes (Paris VII) Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt) Alain Perrodon (fy Elf) Paul Alba (fy Elf) Maurice Allgre (fy IFP) Jacques Varet (BRGM) Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni) Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total) Bernard Rogeaux (EDF) 2000 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO Are we here ?

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 13 A reminder of previous PRB views about "peak oil" 1972 IFP report to United Nations by Brasseur-Masseron Bauquis about ultimate reserves. Publication in French in the "Revue de l'Energie" 50th birthday of the paper "What energies for medium terme (2020) and long term (2050)" in which peak oil is estimated to take place around 2020 for a world production of around 100 Mb/d (all natural liquid H.C.). 2001 Publication in English of a slightly expanded version in "la revue de l'IFP" plus versions in Spanish, German, Russian and Arabic. Publication by IFP School in "Les cahiers de l'Economie" of the paper "Quelles nergies pour les transports au XXIe sicle (in French and in English). In 2006 the author still maintains and clarifies his 1999 views as follows : date range 2020 (+ 5 years) world production level 100 Mbd (+ 5 Mbd) World oil price "stabilized" in $ 2000 at 100 $/bbl (+ 20 $) 2004 1999

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 14 A new methodological approach of peak oil by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (1) Utilisation de la dynamique des phases et de la reprsentation f/c rf. note Paul Alba Olivier Rech du 13.10.2004 (30 pages). Reprsentations inities en 1994 par Paul Alba (ex Directeur des Etudes Economiques du Groupe ELF de 1985 1991). Poursuivies en 1999 par Olivier Rech dans son DEA. (actuellement Ingnieur Economiste lIFP). Ce sont des mthodologies danalyse mathmatique de la forme des chroniques. (notions de trajectoires possibles, de pentes dynamiques, de paliers, de comportements asymptotiques et de convergence).

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 15 Ces mthodologies sont applicables au problme du peak oil rf. 1 : Article de P. Alba et O. Rech dans la Revue de lEnergie, n 561 de novembre 2004. rf. 2 : Prsentation dO. Rech lASPO (Berlin 2004). Formulation mathmatique de la production (yn) mondiale de lanne n (tn) supposant connues les RUR (Rserves Ultimes Rcuprables) et la production dune anne de rfrence (yo) au temps 0 (to) log yn = log yo + A new methodological approach of peak oil by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (2) log yo + C (tn-to) e - 1

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 16 From global accumulated production to URR estimates for conventional liquids 0.010.11101001000 Accumulated production in billions of tonnes (log) IFP - Economic Studies Division 1900 19451973 1945 1973 2004 10 501001000 342458548 Pessimistic scenario (2500 Gb or 342 GT) Optimistic scenario (4000 Gb or 548 GT) USGS (2000) (3345 Gb or 458 GT) Ultimate Recoverable Reserves 1988 1923 1945-73 : positive slope Unsustainable rate Growth rate

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 17 From extrapolating the world accumulated production to the annual production curve IFP - Economic Studies Division Pessimistic scenario (2500 Gb or 342 GT) Optimistic scenario (4000 Gb or 548 GT) USGS (2000) (3345 Gb or 458 GT) Ultimate Recoverable Reserves scenarios Million tonnes

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 18

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 19 PARTIE 2 PRINCIPALES CONSEQUENCES DU PIC PETROLIER la question du prix des nergies la question des transports

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 20 OIL Prices 2005 2050 (Arabian Light in US $ 2000/bbl) A dream view presented in Cambridge by P.R. B on 15/03/06 US$/bbl

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 24 Annule et remplace Conclusions about "peak oil" - 1 Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar : TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d ASPO France : J. Laherrre around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d IFP : Y. Mathieu ondulated plateau 20150/2030 less than 100 Mb/d This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico : Exxon-Mobil ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil" Aramco July 2006 "no reserves problems" BP : John Browne May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem" Mike Lynch (ex MIT) "similar and above 120 Mb/d" USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 25 Conclusions about "peak oil" - 2 The work conducted by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech leads to the important conclusion that their optimistic view about peak oil is practically identical to PR. Bauquis view, i.e. : Peak around 2020 Peak around 80 Mb/d for conventional oil and around 100 mb/d for all natural liquid H.C. (oil). Il est essentiel que l'IFP, TOTAL, les Universits ou les autres organismes de recherches consacrent plus d'efforts l'tude des pics du ptrole et du gaz. Ces efforts devront porter tant sur des mthodologies "top down" que sur des analyses "bottom up".

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 26 conclusions - 3 La survenue du pic de production du ptrole (entre 2015 et 2025 trs probablement) puis du gaz (entre 2020 et 2030) vont modifier fondamentalement notre industrie. Aprs le pic du ptrole, les prix du ptrole et du gaz changent de logique : ils deviennent lis ceux de leurs substituts. Ds que le dclin s'amorce l'OPEP perd son rle de rgulateur des prix, mais peut garder d'autres fonctions.

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 27 conclusions - 4 Le dclin du ptrole et du gaz durera tout au long du XXI me sicle et au-del. Ce sera paradoxalement l'"ge d'or" du ptrole et du gaz (prix levs et relativement prvisibles). Ce sera l'ge d'or pour les ptroliers mais aussi pour leurs fournisseurs et pour les entrepreneurs du secteur paraptrolier. Ce sera aussi l'ge d'or des "mariages" entre nergies fossiles, nergies renouvelables, et nuclaires.

28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS 1 Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts...

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