Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies
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CAS - PARIS 1 28 octobre 2006 Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés) Expert auprès de l'Académie des technologies CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE
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CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE. Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies. Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés) Expert auprès de l'Académie des technologies. PARTIE 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies
Présentation PowerPoint28 octobre 2006
Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies
Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Expert auprès de l'Académie des technologies
CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE
28 octobre 2006
ET DU GAZ
28 octobre 2006
Brief summary of past findings and views
The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves".
Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil".
The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are :
Ultimate reserves concept
King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).
28 octobre 2006
PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE
Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem
Oil world reserves
Gas world reserves
World oil production (Mbep/d)
To convert
1
35.3
0.90
0.73
36
6.29
0.028
1
0.026
0.021
1.03
0.18
1.111
39.2
1
0.805
40.4
7.33
0.028
0.98
0.025
0.02
1
0.17
0.16
5.61
0.14
0.12
5.8
1
Units
= 1.1023 short tons
1 kilocalorie (kcal) = 4.187 kJ = 3.968 Btu
1 kilojoule (kJ) = 0.239 kcal = 0.948 Btu
1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 0.252 kcal = 1.055 kJ
1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) = 860 kcal = 3600 kJ = 3412 Btu
Calorific equivalents
Heat units
3 tonnes of lignite
Electricity
12 megawatt-hours
One million tonnes of oil produces about 4500 gigawatt-hours (=4.5 terawatt hours) of electricity in a modern power station.
Other terms
831.8
854.1
878.4
935.1
1007.6
1072.7
1093.0
1140.9
1209.2
1177.2
1138.2
1205.6
1217.3
1243.7
1290.1
1241.7
1212.8
1181.5
1178.9
1211.9
1245.6
1270.8
1290.2
1301.8
1311.6
1324.1
1345.7
1343.1
1339.3
1336.7
1363.3
1408.6
1406.8
1432.2
1441.4
1462.8
1483.6
1471.5
1498.1
1.8%
15.4%
OECD
2666.7
2796.8
2906.2
3101.2
3317.2
3479.3
3574.5
3727.0
3896.3
3831.7
3750.6
3954.3
4040.5
4136.8
4245.6
4133.8
4045.1
3933.2
3929.9
4115.4
4166.0
4222.6
4342.6
4481.7
4560.0
4586.3
4625.5
4673.5
4745.2
4824.6
4936.1
5105.3
5151.9
5174.1
5246.9
5355.9
5321.7
5356.2
5397.9
0.8%
55.4%
28.3
29.9
30.7
32.8
34.9
36.8
38.2
40.0
42.0
42.3
42.3
44.7
46.2
47.8
49.5
48.7
48.4
48.2
49.0
51.3
52.7
53.9
55.6
57.5
58.8
59.5
59.6
59.8
60.2
60.8
62.6
64.4
65.0
64.9
65.0
66.4
67.1
69.4
71.4
* In this Review, primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels only. Excluded,
therefore, are fuels such as wood, peat and animal waste which, though important
in many countries, are unreliably documented in terms of consumption statistics
^ Less than 0.05
Primary Energy - Consumption
Primary Consumption by Fuel
636.3
348.5
214.7
202.7
69.3
1471.5
639.7
363.5
222.7
204.0
68.3
1498.1
OECD
2191.6
1231.8
1123.3
523.5
286.0
5356.2
2225.8
1233.5
1153.7
505.3
279.6
5397.9
26.1
16.8
17.7
4.5
4.3
69.4
26.7
17.1
18.9
4.4
4.4
71.4
* In this Review, primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels only. Excluded, therefore, are fuels such as wood, peat
and animal waste which. though important in many countries, are unreliably documented in terms of consumption statistics
^ Less than 0.05
Primary Energy - Cons by fuel
0
0
0
0
0
2003
n/a not available
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: The estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources, third party data from the OPEC Secretariat, World Oil, Oil & Gas Journal
and an independent estimate of Russian reserves based on information in the public domain.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines
for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country.
The figure for Canadian oil reserves includes an official estimate of Canadian oil sands “under active development”.
Oil includes gas condensate and natural gas liquids as well as crude oil.
Oil - proved reserves history
n/a not available
Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: The estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources, third party data from the OPEC Secretariat, World Oil, Oil & Gas Journal
and an independent estimate of Russian reserves based on information in the public domain.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country.
The figure for Canadian oil reserves includes an official estimate of Canadian oil sands “under active development”. Oil includes gas condensate and natural gas liquids as well as crude oil.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Oil - proved reserves history
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4858
5302
5762
6167
6566
7127
7610
8064
8664
9270
9916
10466
11010
11531
11805
12116
12260
12330
12403
12297
12040
12442
12655
12601
12298
11566
10472
9149
8196
7391
7297
7171
7377
7391
7551
8013
8659
9513
10477
10.2%
13.9%
* Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately)
prod post 96
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as coal derivatives
prod pré 96
2003
2000
Notes: Annual changes and shares of total are calculated using million tonnes per annum figures rather than thousand barrels daily.
Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Thousand barrels daily
7442
8183
8857
9673
10844
11990
12525
13380
14294
13344
12691
13516
13290
13851
14201
13178
12334
11712
11409
11484
11336
11753
11753
11911
12020
12245
12533
12726
12646
12654
12817
13051
13189
13429
13474
13376
13516
13434
13496
0.5%
17.6%
OECD
23232
24954
26778
29092
31774
34387
36053
38584
41516
39788
38731
41219
42349
43717
44009
41052
38878
36966
36483
37477
37217
38369
39010
40323
40930
41356
41556
42504
42912
44099
44475
45647
46499
46603
47507
47693
47719
47707
48347
1.6%
61.2%
4572
5014
5306
5701
6205
6710
7262
7848
8650
8918
9150
9936
10646
11452
12158
12180
12326
12605
12969
13184
13457
14078
14667
15259
15895
16463
16744
17432
18239
19234
20403
21316
22350
22764
23549
24331
24759
25454
26240
3.1%
34.0%
* Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Notes: Annual changes and shares of total are calculated using million tonnes per annum figures rather than thousand barrels daily.
Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives
and substitute fuels, and unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of oil supply and demand data.
Gas – Proved reserves
242.9
265.1
288.1
309.2
328.3
353.0
377.0
400.4
429.0
458.9
490.8
519.7
545.8
571.5
585.6
603.2
608.8
612.6
616.3
612.7
596.7
615.4
625.2
623.7
607.2
570.5
515.8
451.2
403.2
363.7
358.4
353.3
362.0
362.5
369.9
393.3
424.5
465.6
513.1
10.2%
13.9%
* Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately).
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as coal derivatives.
^ Less than 0.05
£ Excludes Former Soviet Union
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Gas – Proved reserves
Gas Production – bcf
373.2
409.4
442.0
484.2
541.4
599.3
624.6
668.3
711.8
664.2
629.6
672.4
658.0
676.9
693.1
643.2
597.7
564.8
546.5
550.2
539.6
559.0
557.1
565.3
569.3
579.9
593.3
604.3
598.9
598.8
606.4
619.1
623.9
635.6
637.1
634.2
639.7
636.3
639.7
0.5%
17.6%
OECD
1133.1
1215.9
1303.0
1418.7
1545.8
1675.9
1756.3
1883.0
2021.4
1933.2
1875.0
2000.2
2046.4
2101.5
2107.9
1955.9
1842.9
1741.4
1715.6
1756.6
1733.6
1789.9
1815.4
1882.1
1903.6
1926.3
1931.1
1979.1
1988.7
2043.1
2055.2
2114.4
2146.3
2152.5
2189.5
2200.5
2197.9
2191.6
2225.8
1.6%
61.2%
225.8
247.3
261.5
281.5
305.1
329.9
356.7
386.6
425.0
438.2
449.1
489.3
523.5
561.5
595.5
597.8
602.7
614.3
630.6
641.2
652.2
682.2
710.6
740.4
768.4
793.1
806.4
839.9
874.9
919.2
974.2
1019.7
1064.9
1083.2
1117.4
1153.0
1168.6
1198.4
1235.4
3.1%
34.0%
* Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss
^ Less than 0.05
Note: Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives
and substitute fuels, and unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of oil supply and demand data.
Gas Consumption – bcm
Natural Gas: Reserves
at end 1983
at end 1993
at end 2002
at end 2003
3.44
3.24
2.79
101.8
2.88
1.6%
14.1
OECD
15.23
14.70
15.05
546.5
15.48
8.8%
14.2
n/a not available
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: the estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources and third party data from Cedigaz,
the OPEC Secretariat and Oil & Gas Journal.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines
for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Gas Consumption – tonnes
Natural Gas: Production *
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2002
6.8
8.7
11.0
12.6
14.3
14.8
15.6
15.6
15.0
15.5
14.8
14.8
13.7
14.0
14.2
14.7
14.1
14.5
13.5
14.0
14.6
15.9
16.0
17.1
17.4
18.1
20.3
19.7
19.6
20.0
20.4
20.6
20.2
19.8
-2.1%
7.8%
OECD
72.3
76.5
79.6
82.5
81.3
78.0
78.6
79.9
80.4
83.9
82.6
82.1
77.8
72.9
77.5
76.1
74.0
76.9
78.2
80.3
82.3
83.9
85.7
88.9
92.7
94.0
98.3
99.1
100.2
101.4
103.2
105.7
104.7
104.9
0.2%
41.7%
^ Less than 0.05
n/a not available
Note: Annual changes and shares of total are based on data expressed in tonnes oil equivalent
As the data above are derived from tonnes oil equivalent using average conversion factors,
they do not necessarily equate with gas volumes expressed in specific national terms
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Gas – Trade movements pipeline
21.0
24.6
30.7
42.6
58.7
79.0
101.7
124.1
144.3
164.0
171.4
184.2
190.7
196.5
210.4
207.3
205.4
199.0
201.3
213.0
219.4
222.7
236.4
231.8
240.2
248.8
264.4
264.0
280.3
280.9
302.4
336.1
334.8
349.2
364.3
376.6
383.9
387.2
403.9
4.3%
15.6%
OECD
537.4
580.3
614.6
669.8
738.0
768.9
818.6
852.0
852.7
855.3
819.2
848.4
851.7
870.0
916.9
915.2
902.1
863.7
833.2
897.7
892.0
867.3
914.8
942.9
996.1
1009.5
1043.3
1069.2
1106.5
1132.6
1190.0
1256.0
1263.9
1276.1
1305.5
1351.7
1339.6
1368.7
1370.6
0.1%
52.9%
n/a available
Note: The difference between these world consumption figures and the world production statistics is due to variations in stocks at storage facilities
and liquefaction plants, together with unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of gas supply and demand data
As far as possible, the data above represent standard cubic metres (measured at 15 degrees C and 1013 mbar); as they are derived directly from tonnes
of oil equivalent using an average conversion factor, they do not necessarily equate with gas volumes expressed in specific national terms
Gas – Trade movements LNG
18.9
22.2
27.6
38.4
52.8
71.1
91.5
111.7
129.8
147.6
154.3
165.8
171.6
176.9
189.3
186.6
184.8
179.1
181.2
191.7
197.5
200.4
212.8
208.6
216.2
223.9
237.9
237.6
252.3
252.8
272.2
302.5
301.4
314.3
327.9
339.0
345.5
348.5
363.5
4.3%
15.6%
OECD
483.7
522.3
553.1
602.8
664.2
692.1
736.7
766.8
767.4
769.8
737.3
763.5
766.5
783.0
825.2
823.7
811.9
777.3
749.9
807.9
802.8
780.6
823.3
848.6
896.5
908.6
939.0
962.3
995.8
1019.3
1071.0
1130.4
1137.5
1148.5
1174.9
1216.5
1205.6
1231.8
1233.5
0.1%
52.9%
n/a not available
Note: The difference between these world consumption figures and the world production statistics is due to variations in stocks at storage facilities
and liquefaction plants, together with unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of gas supply and demand data
Coal - Reserves
From
16.82
98.60
6.46
4.90
0.40
1.60
3.56
0.77
10.34
42.17
68.37
15.20
131.77
4.92
3.52
0.20
33.08
3.74
1.58
6.87
454.87
Notes: Flows are on a contractual basis and may not correspond to physical gas flows in all cases.
Data excludes trade within the Former Soviet Union
Source: Cedigaz (provisional)
Coal - Production tonnes
Billion cubic metres
Source: Cedigaz (provisional)
Note: Flows are on a contractual basis and may not correspond to physical gas flows in all cases
Coal - Production Mtoe
Million tonnes
Notes:
Proved reserves of coal - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known deposits under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of the year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of reserves data - World Energy Council
Coal - Consumption Mtoe
1076.8
1156.7
1228.3
1340.5
1454.4
1501.2
1565.0
1643.4
1743.9
1753.6
1765.9
1814.0
1865.4
1960.2
2068.4
2184.3
2167.8
2082.4
1871.1
1875.6
1999.3
2381.3
2648.6
11.2%
51.7%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Hydro Consumption TWh
518.0
555.4
588.0
644.0
700.0
721.3
749.8
787.3
835.1
846.6
857.6
880.9
910.1
961.2
1014.7
1072.7
1063.7
1024.2
926.1
926.1
988.5
1184.9
1323.9
11.7%
52.6%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Hydro Consumption - tonnes
386.4
363.5
350.5
352.5
352.3
338.9
312.3
291.1
298.0
290.1
273.6
288.0
285.9
286.4
297.5
299.3
299.1
300.9
300.0
293.8
310.5
305.9
305.8
299.7
301.8
294.8
280.8
260.5
239.0
235.3
231.7
225.0
215.2
215.5
204.6
214.8
213.8
214.7
222.7
3.7%
8.6%
OECD
883.7
880.2
865.0
888.6
904.5
900.1
856.3
834.8
854.8
846.6
835.1
879.9
898.3
889.3
940.5
971.1
981.0
976.1
992.8
1041.5
1074.7
1072.4
1098.7
1118.4
1118.8
1088.8
1068.6
1042.2
1038.2
1038.1
1047.0
1077.2
1083.5
1083.6
1071.4
1119.8
1110.5
1123.3
1153.7
2.7%
44.7%
273.4
289.1
237.4
283.0
298.7
319.9
341.2
349.0
367.1
388.9
408.0
425.3
443.9
465.6
506.2
502.1
514.9
549.7
591.3
641.5
700.1
720.4
748.2
787.8
833.8
840.7
844.9
862.8
891.3
932.3
1015.6
1045.8
1060.0
986.6
867.5
851.4
927.6
1121.9
1245.4
11.0%
48.3%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
216.0
234.2
226.5
231.2
227.4
237.8
236.1
244.7
239.3
253.9
251.1
228.6
302.3
290.9
302.7
283.8
287.4
283.9
291.1
298.3
300.2
285.2
310.9
326.6
267.7
276.1
284.9
303.6
306.1
311.4
307.4
307.1
316.9
328.2
333.8
350.0
366.1
306.0
301.6
-1.4%
11.5%
OECD
709.9
755.6
777.6
795.3
837.0
861.2
891.0
931.5
930.3
1008.7
1011.6
987.9
980.4
1051.1
1081.1
1074.5
1085.6
1150.8
1207.3
1206.1
1203.5
1189.3
1196.2
1201.1
1177.0
1214.7
1227.3
1218.0
1288.4
1239.9
1328.4
1364.9
1390.3
1367.0
1380.3
1380.9
1277.0
1263.8
1235.5
-2.2%
47.0%
48.9
53.0
51.3
52.3
51.5
53.8
53.4
55.4
54.2
57.5
56.8
51.7
68.4
65.8
68.5
64.2
65.1
64.2
65.9
67.5
67.9
64.6
70.4
73.9
60.6
62.5
64.5
68.7
69.3
70.5
69.6
69.5
71.7
74.3
75.5
79.2
82.9
69.3
68.3
-1.4%
11.5%
OECD
160.7
171.0
176.0
180.0
189.4
194.9
201.6
210.8
210.5
228.3
228.9
223.6
221.9
237.9
244.7
243.2
245.7
260.4
273.2
273.0
272.4
269.2
270.7
271.8
266.4
274.9
277.8
275.6
291.6
280.6
300.6
308.9
314.7
309.4
312.4
312.5
289.0
286.0
279.6
-2.2%
47.0%
29.9
31.9
33.3
37.0
40.2
44.8
48.9
54.3
57.9
64.8
69.5
74.3
81.2
88.1
94.9
102.4
106.8
110.6
116.1
125.4
132.4
141.1
146.3
154.6
161.5
166.2
175.8
178.4
187.8
203.0
213.5
220.1
222.0
233.2
238.7
249.5
246.1
255.1
264.3
3.6%
44.4%
* Converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station
^ Less than 0.05
19.9
26.1
31.1
34.6
42.4
42.9
49.6
63.8
67.8
78.5
105.5
122.5
147.4
166.7
184.1
213.9
292.2
320.4
377.3
480.3
575.0
622.5
636.5
681.9
723.3
720.0
747.3
759.8
794.1
791.8
810.1
850.4
860.1
850.7
867.6
864.3
891.1
895.8
901.5
0.6%
34.1%
OECD
24.2
32.8
40.3
49.0
58.6
71.8
103.4
139.9
185.9
237.6
328.1
384.7
474.6
553.0
562.5
618.2
723.4
785.8
876.2
1044.3
1248.9
1372.2
1477.9
1594.0
1656.0
1713.7
1807.4
1830.8
1903.8
1959.7
2042.7
2096.1
2076.2
2121.8
2203.9
2238.2
2291.8
2313.3
2232.7
-3.5%
84.4%
4.5
5.9
7.0
7.8
9.6
9.7
11.2
14.4
15.3
17.8
23.9
27.7
33.4
37.7
41.7
48.4
66.1
72.5
85.4
108.7
130.1
140.9
144.1
154.3
163.7
163.0
169.1
171.9
179.7
179.2
183.3
192.5
194.6
192.5
196.4
195.6
201.7
202.7
204.0
0.6%
34.1%
OECD
5.5
7.4
9.1
11.1
13.3
16.3
23.4
31.7
42.1
53.8
74.3
87.1
107.4
125.1
127.3
139.9
163.7
177.8
198.3
236.3
282.6
310.5
334.5
360.7
374.8
387.8
409.1
414.4
430.9
443.5
462.3
474.4
469.9
480.2
498.8
506.5
518.7
523.5
505.3
-3.5%
84.4%
-0
-0
-0
-0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.4
2.2
3.1
4.0
4.3
5.8
6.9
9.5
12.8
14.8
14.4
15.8
16.9
15.9
17.5
17.7
17.1
17.3
21.0
22.6
24.2
25.8
26.3
26.3
28.6
31.0
33.8
37.1
9.6%
6.2%
* Converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station
^ Less than 0.05
2157
2220
2229
2233
2272
2330
2412
2423
2484
2529
2594
2671
2684
2752
2.5%
16.5%
OECD
7588
7762
7841
8026
8240
8490
8737
8891
9109
9324
9650
9658
9847
9873
0.3%
59.3%
28 octobre 2006
But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests a different picture
Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates
have practically remained flat.
28 octobre 2006
Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000
HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES
1940
1949
1950
1959
1960
1969
1970
1979
1980
1989
1990
2000
Gb
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE USA
(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years
Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere
28 octobre 2006
‘Classic’ exploration
- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)
- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
(*) 4-year average
28 octobre 2006
(first draft : final draft objective end 2006)
Schistes
bitumineux
18
15
10
5
2005
2020
2050
2100
8
3
6
1
6
4
4
1
3
5
1
1
1
3
0.5
0.5
(hydrocarbures liquides naturels
Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie,
- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)
- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
28 octobre 2006
3w.peakoil.net
3w.aspofrance.org
3w.oilcrisis.com
3w.peakoil.com
Are we here ?
28 octobre 2006
A reminder of previous PRB views about "peak oil"
1972 IFP report to United Nations by Brasseur-Masseron – Bauquis about ultimate reserves.
Publication in French in the "Revue de l'Energie" 50th birthday of the paper "What energies for medium terme (2020) and long term (2050)" in which peak oil is estimated to take place around 2020 for a world production of around 100 Mb/d (all natural liquid H.C.).
2001 Publication in English of a slightly expanded version in "la revue de l'IFP" plus versions in Spanish, German, Russian and Arabic.
Publication by IFP School in "Les cahiers de l'Economie" of the paper "Quelles énergies pour les transports au XXIe siècle (in French and in English).
In 2006 the author still maintains and clarifies his 1999 views as follows :
date range 2020 (+ 5 years)
world production level 100 Mbd (+ 5 Mbd)
World oil price "stabilized" in $ 2000 at 100 $/bbl (+ 20 $)
2004
1999
A new methodological approach of peak oil
by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (1)
Utilisation de la dynamique des phases et de la représentation f/c
réf. note Paul Alba – Olivier Rech du 13.10.2004 (30 pages).
Représentations initiées en 1994 par Paul Alba
(ex Directeur des Etudes Economiques du Groupe ELF de 1985 à 1991).
Poursuivies en 1999 par Olivier Rech dans son DEA.
(actuellement Ingénieur Economiste à l’IFP).
Ce sont des méthodologies d’analyse mathématique de la forme des chroniques. (notions de trajectoires possibles, de pentes dynamiques, de paliers, de comportements asymptotiques et de convergence).
28 octobre 2006
Ces méthodologies sont applicables au problème du « peak oil »
réf. 1 : Article de P. Alba et O. Rech dans la Revue de l’Energie, n° 561 de novembre 2004.
réf. 2 : Présentation d’O. Rech à l’ASPO (Berlin 2004).
Formulation mathématique de la production (yn) mondiale de l’année « n » (tn) supposant connues les RUR (Réserves Ultimes Récupérables) et la production d’une année de référence (yo) au temps « 0 » (to)
log yn = log yo +
δ log yo + C
From global accumulated production to URR estimates for conventional liquids
IFP - Economic Studies Division
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves
10
50
100
1000
_1128926782.doc
_1128926841.doc
From extrapolating the world accumulated production to the annual production curve
IFP - Economic Studies Division
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves scenarios
la question du prix des énergies
la question des transports
OIL Prices 2005 – 2050 (Arabian Light in US $ 2000/bbl)
A dream view presented in Cambridge by P.R. B on 15/03/06
US$/bbl
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 1
Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar :
TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d
ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d
IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d
This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico :
Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil"
Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems"
BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem"
Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d"
USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA…
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 2
The work conducted by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech leads to the important conclusion that their “optimistic view” about peak oil is practically identical to PR. Bauquis view, i.e. :
Peak around 2020
Peak around 80 Mb/d for conventional oil and around 100 mb/d for all natural liquid H.C. (oil).
Il est essentiel que l'IFP, TOTAL, les Universités ou les autres organismes de recherches consacrent plus d'efforts à l'étude des pics du pétrole et du gaz. Ces efforts devront porter tant sur des méthodologies "top down" que sur des analyses "bottom up".
28 octobre 2006
conclusions - 3
La survenue du pic de production du pétrole (entre 2015 et 2025 très probablement) puis du gaz (entre 2020 et 2030) vont modifier fondamentalement notre industrie.
Après le pic du pétrole, les prix du pétrole et du gaz changent de logique : ils deviennent liés à ceux de leurs substituts.
Dès que le déclin s'amorce l'OPEP perd son rôle de régulateur des prix, mais peut garder d'autres fonctions .
28 octobre 2006
conclusions - 4
Le déclin du pétrole et du gaz durera tout au long du XXI ème siècle et au-delà. Ce sera paradoxalement l'"âge d'or" du pétrole et du gaz (prix élevés et relativement prévisibles).
Ce sera l'âge d'or pour les pétroliers
mais aussi pour leurs fournisseurs et pour les entrepreneurs du secteur parapétrolier.
Ce sera aussi l'âge d'or des "mariages" entre énergies fossiles, énergies renouvelables, … et nucléaires.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
2005
2020
2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100
0
50
100
150
200
250
200520112017202320292035204120472053
Les pics mondiaux de production du pétrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des énergies
Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Expert auprès de l'Académie des technologies
CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE
28 octobre 2006
ET DU GAZ
28 octobre 2006
Brief summary of past findings and views
The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves".
Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil".
The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are :
Ultimate reserves concept
King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).
28 octobre 2006
PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE
Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem
Oil world reserves
Gas world reserves
World oil production (Mbep/d)
To convert
1
35.3
0.90
0.73
36
6.29
0.028
1
0.026
0.021
1.03
0.18
1.111
39.2
1
0.805
40.4
7.33
0.028
0.98
0.025
0.02
1
0.17
0.16
5.61
0.14
0.12
5.8
1
Units
= 1.1023 short tons
1 kilocalorie (kcal) = 4.187 kJ = 3.968 Btu
1 kilojoule (kJ) = 0.239 kcal = 0.948 Btu
1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 0.252 kcal = 1.055 kJ
1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) = 860 kcal = 3600 kJ = 3412 Btu
Calorific equivalents
Heat units
3 tonnes of lignite
Electricity
12 megawatt-hours
One million tonnes of oil produces about 4500 gigawatt-hours (=4.5 terawatt hours) of electricity in a modern power station.
Other terms
831.8
854.1
878.4
935.1
1007.6
1072.7
1093.0
1140.9
1209.2
1177.2
1138.2
1205.6
1217.3
1243.7
1290.1
1241.7
1212.8
1181.5
1178.9
1211.9
1245.6
1270.8
1290.2
1301.8
1311.6
1324.1
1345.7
1343.1
1339.3
1336.7
1363.3
1408.6
1406.8
1432.2
1441.4
1462.8
1483.6
1471.5
1498.1
1.8%
15.4%
OECD
2666.7
2796.8
2906.2
3101.2
3317.2
3479.3
3574.5
3727.0
3896.3
3831.7
3750.6
3954.3
4040.5
4136.8
4245.6
4133.8
4045.1
3933.2
3929.9
4115.4
4166.0
4222.6
4342.6
4481.7
4560.0
4586.3
4625.5
4673.5
4745.2
4824.6
4936.1
5105.3
5151.9
5174.1
5246.9
5355.9
5321.7
5356.2
5397.9
0.8%
55.4%
28.3
29.9
30.7
32.8
34.9
36.8
38.2
40.0
42.0
42.3
42.3
44.7
46.2
47.8
49.5
48.7
48.4
48.2
49.0
51.3
52.7
53.9
55.6
57.5
58.8
59.5
59.6
59.8
60.2
60.8
62.6
64.4
65.0
64.9
65.0
66.4
67.1
69.4
71.4
* In this Review, primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels only. Excluded,
therefore, are fuels such as wood, peat and animal waste which, though important
in many countries, are unreliably documented in terms of consumption statistics
^ Less than 0.05
Primary Energy - Consumption
Primary Consumption by Fuel
636.3
348.5
214.7
202.7
69.3
1471.5
639.7
363.5
222.7
204.0
68.3
1498.1
OECD
2191.6
1231.8
1123.3
523.5
286.0
5356.2
2225.8
1233.5
1153.7
505.3
279.6
5397.9
26.1
16.8
17.7
4.5
4.3
69.4
26.7
17.1
18.9
4.4
4.4
71.4
* In this Review, primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels only. Excluded, therefore, are fuels such as wood, peat
and animal waste which. though important in many countries, are unreliably documented in terms of consumption statistics
^ Less than 0.05
Primary Energy - Cons by fuel
0
0
0
0
0
2003
n/a not available
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: The estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources, third party data from the OPEC Secretariat, World Oil, Oil & Gas Journal
and an independent estimate of Russian reserves based on information in the public domain.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines
for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country.
The figure for Canadian oil reserves includes an official estimate of Canadian oil sands “under active development”.
Oil includes gas condensate and natural gas liquids as well as crude oil.
Oil - proved reserves history
n/a not available
Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: The estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources, third party data from the OPEC Secretariat, World Oil, Oil & Gas Journal
and an independent estimate of Russian reserves based on information in the public domain.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country.
The figure for Canadian oil reserves includes an official estimate of Canadian oil sands “under active development”. Oil includes gas condensate and natural gas liquids as well as crude oil.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Oil - proved reserves history
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4858
5302
5762
6167
6566
7127
7610
8064
8664
9270
9916
10466
11010
11531
11805
12116
12260
12330
12403
12297
12040
12442
12655
12601
12298
11566
10472
9149
8196
7391
7297
7171
7377
7391
7551
8013
8659
9513
10477
10.2%
13.9%
* Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately)
prod post 96
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as coal derivatives
prod pré 96
2003
2000
Notes: Annual changes and shares of total are calculated using million tonnes per annum figures rather than thousand barrels daily.
Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Thousand barrels daily
7442
8183
8857
9673
10844
11990
12525
13380
14294
13344
12691
13516
13290
13851
14201
13178
12334
11712
11409
11484
11336
11753
11753
11911
12020
12245
12533
12726
12646
12654
12817
13051
13189
13429
13474
13376
13516
13434
13496
0.5%
17.6%
OECD
23232
24954
26778
29092
31774
34387
36053
38584
41516
39788
38731
41219
42349
43717
44009
41052
38878
36966
36483
37477
37217
38369
39010
40323
40930
41356
41556
42504
42912
44099
44475
45647
46499
46603
47507
47693
47719
47707
48347
1.6%
61.2%
4572
5014
5306
5701
6205
6710
7262
7848
8650
8918
9150
9936
10646
11452
12158
12180
12326
12605
12969
13184
13457
14078
14667
15259
15895
16463
16744
17432
18239
19234
20403
21316
22350
22764
23549
24331
24759
25454
26240
3.1%
34.0%
* Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Notes: Annual changes and shares of total are calculated using million tonnes per annum figures rather than thousand barrels daily.
Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives
and substitute fuels, and unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of oil supply and demand data.
Gas – Proved reserves
242.9
265.1
288.1
309.2
328.3
353.0
377.0
400.4
429.0
458.9
490.8
519.7
545.8
571.5
585.6
603.2
608.8
612.6
616.3
612.7
596.7
615.4
625.2
623.7
607.2
570.5
515.8
451.2
403.2
363.7
358.4
353.3
362.0
362.5
369.9
393.3
424.5
465.6
513.1
10.2%
13.9%
* Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately).
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as coal derivatives.
^ Less than 0.05
£ Excludes Former Soviet Union
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Gas – Proved reserves
Gas Production – bcf
373.2
409.4
442.0
484.2
541.4
599.3
624.6
668.3
711.8
664.2
629.6
672.4
658.0
676.9
693.1
643.2
597.7
564.8
546.5
550.2
539.6
559.0
557.1
565.3
569.3
579.9
593.3
604.3
598.9
598.8
606.4
619.1
623.9
635.6
637.1
634.2
639.7
636.3
639.7
0.5%
17.6%
OECD
1133.1
1215.9
1303.0
1418.7
1545.8
1675.9
1756.3
1883.0
2021.4
1933.2
1875.0
2000.2
2046.4
2101.5
2107.9
1955.9
1842.9
1741.4
1715.6
1756.6
1733.6
1789.9
1815.4
1882.1
1903.6
1926.3
1931.1
1979.1
1988.7
2043.1
2055.2
2114.4
2146.3
2152.5
2189.5
2200.5
2197.9
2191.6
2225.8
1.6%
61.2%
225.8
247.3
261.5
281.5
305.1
329.9
356.7
386.6
425.0
438.2
449.1
489.3
523.5
561.5
595.5
597.8
602.7
614.3
630.6
641.2
652.2
682.2
710.6
740.4
768.4
793.1
806.4
839.9
874.9
919.2
974.2
1019.7
1064.9
1083.2
1117.4
1153.0
1168.6
1198.4
1235.4
3.1%
34.0%
* Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss
^ Less than 0.05
Note: Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives
and substitute fuels, and unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of oil supply and demand data.
Gas Consumption – bcm
Natural Gas: Reserves
at end 1983
at end 1993
at end 2002
at end 2003
3.44
3.24
2.79
101.8
2.88
1.6%
14.1
OECD
15.23
14.70
15.05
546.5
15.48
8.8%
14.2
n/a not available
Notes: Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of data: the estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources and third party data from Cedigaz,
the OPEC Secretariat and Oil & Gas Journal.
The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission definitions and guidelines
for determining proved reserves nor necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Gas Consumption – tonnes
Natural Gas: Production *
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2002
6.8
8.7
11.0
12.6
14.3
14.8
15.6
15.6
15.0
15.5
14.8
14.8
13.7
14.0
14.2
14.7
14.1
14.5
13.5
14.0
14.6
15.9
16.0
17.1
17.4
18.1
20.3
19.7
19.6
20.0
20.4
20.6
20.2
19.8
-2.1%
7.8%
OECD
72.3
76.5
79.6
82.5
81.3
78.0
78.6
79.9
80.4
83.9
82.6
82.1
77.8
72.9
77.5
76.1
74.0
76.9
78.2
80.3
82.3
83.9
85.7
88.9
92.7
94.0
98.3
99.1
100.2
101.4
103.2
105.7
104.7
104.9
0.2%
41.7%
^ Less than 0.05
n/a not available
Note: Annual changes and shares of total are based on data expressed in tonnes oil equivalent
As the data above are derived from tonnes oil equivalent using average conversion factors,
they do not necessarily equate with gas volumes expressed in specific national terms
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Gas – Trade movements pipeline
21.0
24.6
30.7
42.6
58.7
79.0
101.7
124.1
144.3
164.0
171.4
184.2
190.7
196.5
210.4
207.3
205.4
199.0
201.3
213.0
219.4
222.7
236.4
231.8
240.2
248.8
264.4
264.0
280.3
280.9
302.4
336.1
334.8
349.2
364.3
376.6
383.9
387.2
403.9
4.3%
15.6%
OECD
537.4
580.3
614.6
669.8
738.0
768.9
818.6
852.0
852.7
855.3
819.2
848.4
851.7
870.0
916.9
915.2
902.1
863.7
833.2
897.7
892.0
867.3
914.8
942.9
996.1
1009.5
1043.3
1069.2
1106.5
1132.6
1190.0
1256.0
1263.9
1276.1
1305.5
1351.7
1339.6
1368.7
1370.6
0.1%
52.9%
n/a available
Note: The difference between these world consumption figures and the world production statistics is due to variations in stocks at storage facilities
and liquefaction plants, together with unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of gas supply and demand data
As far as possible, the data above represent standard cubic metres (measured at 15 degrees C and 1013 mbar); as they are derived directly from tonnes
of oil equivalent using an average conversion factor, they do not necessarily equate with gas volumes expressed in specific national terms
Gas – Trade movements LNG
18.9
22.2
27.6
38.4
52.8
71.1
91.5
111.7
129.8
147.6
154.3
165.8
171.6
176.9
189.3
186.6
184.8
179.1
181.2
191.7
197.5
200.4
212.8
208.6
216.2
223.9
237.9
237.6
252.3
252.8
272.2
302.5
301.4
314.3
327.9
339.0
345.5
348.5
363.5
4.3%
15.6%
OECD
483.7
522.3
553.1
602.8
664.2
692.1
736.7
766.8
767.4
769.8
737.3
763.5
766.5
783.0
825.2
823.7
811.9
777.3
749.9
807.9
802.8
780.6
823.3
848.6
896.5
908.6
939.0
962.3
995.8
1019.3
1071.0
1130.4
1137.5
1148.5
1174.9
1216.5
1205.6
1231.8
1233.5
0.1%
52.9%
n/a not available
Note: The difference between these world consumption figures and the world production statistics is due to variations in stocks at storage facilities
and liquefaction plants, together with unavoidable disparities in the definition, measurement or conversion of gas supply and demand data
Coal - Reserves
From
16.82
98.60
6.46
4.90
0.40
1.60
3.56
0.77
10.34
42.17
68.37
15.20
131.77
4.92
3.52
0.20
33.08
3.74
1.58
6.87
454.87
Notes: Flows are on a contractual basis and may not correspond to physical gas flows in all cases.
Data excludes trade within the Former Soviet Union
Source: Cedigaz (provisional)
Coal - Production tonnes
Billion cubic metres
Source: Cedigaz (provisional)
Note: Flows are on a contractual basis and may not correspond to physical gas flows in all cases
Coal - Production Mtoe
Million tonnes
Notes:
Proved reserves of coal - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information
indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known deposits under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of the year are divided by the
production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if
production were to continue at that level.
Source of reserves data - World Energy Council
Coal - Consumption Mtoe
1076.8
1156.7
1228.3
1340.5
1454.4
1501.2
1565.0
1643.4
1743.9
1753.6
1765.9
1814.0
1865.4
1960.2
2068.4
2184.3
2167.8
2082.4
1871.1
1875.6
1999.3
2381.3
2648.6
11.2%
51.7%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Hydro Consumption TWh
518.0
555.4
588.0
644.0
700.0
721.3
749.8
787.3
835.1
846.6
857.6
880.9
910.1
961.2
1014.7
1072.7
1063.7
1024.2
926.1
926.1
988.5
1184.9
1323.9
11.7%
52.6%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
w Less than 0.05%
Note: Because of rounding some totals may not agree exactly with the sum of their component parts.
Hydro Consumption - tonnes
386.4
363.5
350.5
352.5
352.3
338.9
312.3
291.1
298.0
290.1
273.6
288.0
285.9
286.4
297.5
299.3
299.1
300.9
300.0
293.8
310.5
305.9
305.8
299.7
301.8
294.8
280.8
260.5
239.0
235.3
231.7
225.0
215.2
215.5
204.6
214.8
213.8
214.7
222.7
3.7%
8.6%
OECD
883.7
880.2
865.0
888.6
904.5
900.1
856.3
834.8
854.8
846.6
835.1
879.9
898.3
889.3
940.5
971.1
981.0
976.1
992.8
1041.5
1074.7
1072.4
1098.7
1118.4
1118.8
1088.8
1068.6
1042.2
1038.2
1038.1
1047.0
1077.2
1083.5
1083.6
1071.4
1119.8
1110.5
1123.3
1153.7
2.7%
44.7%
273.4
289.1
237.4
283.0
298.7
319.9
341.2
349.0
367.1
388.9
408.0
425.3
443.9
465.6
506.2
502.1
514.9
549.7
591.3
641.5
700.1
720.4
748.2
787.8
833.8
840.7
844.9
862.8
891.3
932.3
1015.6
1045.8
1060.0
986.6
867.5
851.4
927.6
1121.9
1245.4
11.0%
48.3%
* Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal
^ Less than 0.05
216.0
234.2
226.5
231.2
227.4
237.8
236.1
244.7
239.3
253.9
251.1
228.6
302.3
290.9
302.7
283.8
287.4
283.9
291.1
298.3
300.2
285.2
310.9
326.6
267.7
276.1
284.9
303.6
306.1
311.4
307.4
307.1
316.9
328.2
333.8
350.0
366.1
306.0
301.6
-1.4%
11.5%
OECD
709.9
755.6
777.6
795.3
837.0
861.2
891.0
931.5
930.3
1008.7
1011.6
987.9
980.4
1051.1
1081.1
1074.5
1085.6
1150.8
1207.3
1206.1
1203.5
1189.3
1196.2
1201.1
1177.0
1214.7
1227.3
1218.0
1288.4
1239.9
1328.4
1364.9
1390.3
1367.0
1380.3
1380.9
1277.0
1263.8
1235.5
-2.2%
47.0%
48.9
53.0
51.3
52.3
51.5
53.8
53.4
55.4
54.2
57.5
56.8
51.7
68.4
65.8
68.5
64.2
65.1
64.2
65.9
67.5
67.9
64.6
70.4
73.9
60.6
62.5
64.5
68.7
69.3
70.5
69.6
69.5
71.7
74.3
75.5
79.2
82.9
69.3
68.3
-1.4%
11.5%
OECD
160.7
171.0
176.0
180.0
189.4
194.9
201.6
210.8
210.5
228.3
228.9
223.6
221.9
237.9
244.7
243.2
245.7
260.4
273.2
273.0
272.4
269.2
270.7
271.8
266.4
274.9
277.8
275.6
291.6
280.6
300.6
308.9
314.7
309.4
312.4
312.5
289.0
286.0
279.6
-2.2%
47.0%
29.9
31.9
33.3
37.0
40.2
44.8
48.9
54.3
57.9
64.8
69.5
74.3
81.2
88.1
94.9
102.4
106.8
110.6
116.1
125.4
132.4
141.1
146.3
154.6
161.5
166.2
175.8
178.4
187.8
203.0
213.5
220.1
222.0
233.2
238.7
249.5
246.1
255.1
264.3
3.6%
44.4%
* Converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station
^ Less than 0.05
19.9
26.1
31.1
34.6
42.4
42.9
49.6
63.8
67.8
78.5
105.5
122.5
147.4
166.7
184.1
213.9
292.2
320.4
377.3
480.3
575.0
622.5
636.5
681.9
723.3
720.0
747.3
759.8
794.1
791.8
810.1
850.4
860.1
850.7
867.6
864.3
891.1
895.8
901.5
0.6%
34.1%
OECD
24.2
32.8
40.3
49.0
58.6
71.8
103.4
139.9
185.9
237.6
328.1
384.7
474.6
553.0
562.5
618.2
723.4
785.8
876.2
1044.3
1248.9
1372.2
1477.9
1594.0
1656.0
1713.7
1807.4
1830.8
1903.8
1959.7
2042.7
2096.1
2076.2
2121.8
2203.9
2238.2
2291.8
2313.3
2232.7
-3.5%
84.4%
4.5
5.9
7.0
7.8
9.6
9.7
11.2
14.4
15.3
17.8
23.9
27.7
33.4
37.7
41.7
48.4
66.1
72.5
85.4
108.7
130.1
140.9
144.1
154.3
163.7
163.0
169.1
171.9
179.7
179.2
183.3
192.5
194.6
192.5
196.4
195.6
201.7
202.7
204.0
0.6%
34.1%
OECD
5.5
7.4
9.1
11.1
13.3
16.3
23.4
31.7
42.1
53.8
74.3
87.1
107.4
125.1
127.3
139.9
163.7
177.8
198.3
236.3
282.6
310.5
334.5
360.7
374.8
387.8
409.1
414.4
430.9
443.5
462.3
474.4
469.9
480.2
498.8
506.5
518.7
523.5
505.3
-3.5%
84.4%
-0
-0
-0
-0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.4
2.2
3.1
4.0
4.3
5.8
6.9
9.5
12.8
14.8
14.4
15.8
16.9
15.9
17.5
17.7
17.1
17.3
21.0
22.6
24.2
25.8
26.3
26.3
28.6
31.0
33.8
37.1
9.6%
6.2%
* Converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station
^ Less than 0.05
2157
2220
2229
2233
2272
2330
2412
2423
2484
2529
2594
2671
2684
2752
2.5%
16.5%
OECD
7588
7762
7841
8026
8240
8490
8737
8891
9109
9324
9650
9658
9847
9873
0.3%
59.3%
28 octobre 2006
But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests a different picture
Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates
have practically remained flat.
28 octobre 2006
Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000
HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES
1940
1949
1950
1959
1960
1969
1970
1979
1980
1989
1990
2000
Gb
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE USA
(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years
Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere
28 octobre 2006
‘Classic’ exploration
- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)
- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
(*) 4-year average
28 octobre 2006
(first draft : final draft objective end 2006)
Schistes
bitumineux
18
15
10
5
2005
2020
2050
2100
8
3
6
1
6
4
4
1
3
5
1
1
1
3
0.5
0.5
(hydrocarbures liquides naturels
Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie,
- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)
- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
28 octobre 2006
3w.peakoil.net
3w.aspofrance.org
3w.oilcrisis.com
3w.peakoil.com
Are we here ?
28 octobre 2006
A reminder of previous PRB views about "peak oil"
1972 IFP report to United Nations by Brasseur-Masseron – Bauquis about ultimate reserves.
Publication in French in the "Revue de l'Energie" 50th birthday of the paper "What energies for medium terme (2020) and long term (2050)" in which peak oil is estimated to take place around 2020 for a world production of around 100 Mb/d (all natural liquid H.C.).
2001 Publication in English of a slightly expanded version in "la revue de l'IFP" plus versions in Spanish, German, Russian and Arabic.
Publication by IFP School in "Les cahiers de l'Economie" of the paper "Quelles énergies pour les transports au XXIe siècle (in French and in English).
In 2006 the author still maintains and clarifies his 1999 views as follows :
date range 2020 (+ 5 years)
world production level 100 Mbd (+ 5 Mbd)
World oil price "stabilized" in $ 2000 at 100 $/bbl (+ 20 $)
2004
1999
A new methodological approach of peak oil
by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (1)
Utilisation de la dynamique des phases et de la représentation f/c
réf. note Paul Alba – Olivier Rech du 13.10.2004 (30 pages).
Représentations initiées en 1994 par Paul Alba
(ex Directeur des Etudes Economiques du Groupe ELF de 1985 à 1991).
Poursuivies en 1999 par Olivier Rech dans son DEA.
(actuellement Ingénieur Economiste à l’IFP).
Ce sont des méthodologies d’analyse mathématique de la forme des chroniques. (notions de trajectoires possibles, de pentes dynamiques, de paliers, de comportements asymptotiques et de convergence).
28 octobre 2006
Ces méthodologies sont applicables au problème du « peak oil »
réf. 1 : Article de P. Alba et O. Rech dans la Revue de l’Energie, n° 561 de novembre 2004.
réf. 2 : Présentation d’O. Rech à l’ASPO (Berlin 2004).
Formulation mathématique de la production (yn) mondiale de l’année « n » (tn) supposant connues les RUR (Réserves Ultimes Récupérables) et la production d’une année de référence (yo) au temps « 0 » (to)
log yn = log yo +
δ log yo + C
From global accumulated production to URR estimates for conventional liquids
IFP - Economic Studies Division
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves
10
50
100
1000
_1128926782.doc
_1128926841.doc
From extrapolating the world accumulated production to the annual production curve
IFP - Economic Studies Division
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves scenarios
la question du prix des énergies
la question des transports
OIL Prices 2005 – 2050 (Arabian Light in US $ 2000/bbl)
A dream view presented in Cambridge by P.R. B on 15/03/06
US$/bbl
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 1
Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar :
TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d
ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d
IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d
This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico :
Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil"
Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems"
BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem"
Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d"
USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA…
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 2
The work conducted by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech leads to the important conclusion that their “optimistic view” about peak oil is practically identical to PR. Bauquis view, i.e. :
Peak around 2020
Peak around 80 Mb/d for conventional oil and around 100 mb/d for all natural liquid H.C. (oil).
Il est essentiel que l'IFP, TOTAL, les Universités ou les autres organismes de recherches consacrent plus d'efforts à l'étude des pics du pétrole et du gaz. Ces efforts devront porter tant sur des méthodologies "top down" que sur des analyses "bottom up".
28 octobre 2006
conclusions - 3
La survenue du pic de production du pétrole (entre 2015 et 2025 très probablement) puis du gaz (entre 2020 et 2030) vont modifier fondamentalement notre industrie.
Après le pic du pétrole, les prix du pétrole et du gaz changent de logique : ils deviennent liés à ceux de leurs substituts.
Dès que le déclin s'amorce l'OPEP perd son rôle de régulateur des prix, mais peut garder d'autres fonctions .
28 octobre 2006
conclusions - 4
Le déclin du pétrole et du gaz durera tout au long du XXI ème siècle et au-delà. Ce sera paradoxalement l'"âge d'or" du pétrole et du gaz (prix élevés et relativement prévisibles).
Ce sera l'âge d'or pour les pétroliers
mais aussi pour leurs fournisseurs et pour les entrepreneurs du secteur parapétrolier.
Ce sera aussi l'âge d'or des "mariages" entre énergies fossiles, énergies renouvelables, … et nucléaires.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
2005
2020
2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100
0
50
100
150
200
250
200520112017202320292035204120472053
