Post on 21-Jun-2020
Groupes Motopropulseurs du Futur pour une Mobilité à faibles Émissions de CarboneRalph Saliba, Juergen Manns, Carsten von EssenCNAM Conference, Paris, 27 Mars 2018
IAV 03/2018 TP-T CvE Status: draft, confidential 1
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 2
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
3
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
Share of Worldwide, Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2–Emissions
Transport is responsible for 14% of anthropogenic CO2-Emissions
For reasons of climate change and conservation of resources, more renewable energy sources need to be used in the future
Sou
rce:
IPC
C C
limat
e C
hang
e 20
14 S
ynth
esis
Rep
ort
Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) from economic sectors in 2010
(Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use)
4IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
Worldwide Fleet of Light-Duty Vehicles (PC & LCV)
The worldwide vehicle fleet will further grow in the next years. Forecasts for 2040 predict up to 2 Billion vehicles.
Electric vehicles will only have a minor share until 2040
Billion
Sou
rce:
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obil,
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7 Th
e O
utlo
ok fo
r Ene
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–A
Vie
w to
204
0
worldwide no. of electric vehicles (IEA)worldwide vehicle fleet scenario (ExxonMobil)
5IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
Future Worldwide Fuel Demand
Worldwide fuel consumption will still further increase Measures to improve fuel efficiency cannot compensate increasing vehicle
numbers and other consumers
MBDOE (Million Barrels per Day Oil-Equivalent)
6
Sou
rce:
Exx
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obil,
201
7 Th
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ok fo
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w to
204
0
Despite a steadily increase of gasoline-powered vehicles, the overall gasoline fuel demand will not grow from 2020 due to efficiency improvements and hybridization
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
Climate Protection Plans for 2050 regarding Future Mobility
In principal, there are 3 options to fulfil these demands:1. Use of electrical energy from solar and wind power plants for the operation of electric
vehicles2. Transformation of electrical energy from renewable sources into hydrogen (H2) in order
to operate fuel cell vehicles3. Transformation of electrical energy from renewable sources and hydrogen (H2) into
synthetic fuels (e-fuels) in order to operate vehicles with combustion engine
The Paris Resolution from 2015 means in fact that we have to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions until 2050 by 80% – 95%, compared to 1990 level.
This means that mobility in 2050 has to be largely CO2-free and that the energy for transportation needs to come from renewable sources.
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 7
CO2 emissions in Europe by OEM
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 8
Sou
rce:
Eur
opea
n E
nviro
nmen
t Age
ncy,
Mon
itorin
g of
CO
2 em
issi
ons
from
pas
seng
er c
ars
–R
egul
atio
n 44
3/20
09; D
aim
ler a
nnua
l rep
ort 2
017,
BM
W P
ress
rele
ase
2018
CO2 target based on curb weight
CO
2 fle
et e
mis
sion
s in
g/k
m
Key Data from the EU
EU passenger car fleet (2015): 256 Mio.New passenger car registrations (in 2016): 14,6 Mio.Share of renewable energy from EU electricity generation (2017): 30,0 %Share of nuclear power from EU electricity generation (2017): 25,6 %Share of nuclear power from French electricity generation (2017): 71,0 %CO2-emissions from overall EU electricity generation (2014): 276 g/kWh
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 9
Natural replacement of older vehicles (EU4 and EU5) will still take many years Impact of EU6 vehicles with latest technology on overall air quality is limited
as long as many old vehicles are still on the road
Source: Volkswagen
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 10
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Three main Ways for a CO2-free Mobility
Requirement: Using fuels which are
produced without impact on CO2 e-fuels
Combustion Engine & Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle(FCEV)
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 11
Requirement: Using green electricity
which is produced without impact on CO2
Requirement: Using Hydrogen (H2)
which is produced without impact on CO2
Source: AUDI Source: BMW Source: DAIMLER
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 12
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Combustion EnginesChallenge: Minimize Local Emissions
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 13
Future gasoline engine technologies Gasoline Particulate Filter Improved Mapwide Control for = 1 Electrical Heated Catalysts High-Pressure Injection Systems (350 bar) Reduced Wall Heat Losses / Phase Change Cooling Variable Compression Ratio Pre-Chamber Spark Plug
Future diesel engine technologies VVL (2nd exhaust valve lift) Insulated combustion chamber low-surface piston shape Transient NOx Control LNT + aSCR/DPF + SCR
Source: Daimler
Source: Toyota
There is still room for improvement of the classical combustion engines
HybridizationThe Enabler for further CO2 Reduction
14
System costs / degree of electrification
CO
2sa
ving
s @
WLT
C
High Voltage (HV) System
Mild Hybrid48V
extend. Stop/Startelec. Acceleration
limited elec. DrivingRecuperationBSG or ISG
Full HybridHV-System
> 100Velec. Acceleration
electric DrivingRecuperation
ISG
Plug-In HybridHEV / P2
HV-System>> 100V
elec. Accelerationelectric. DrivingRecuperation
Electrical VehicleBEV
HV-System>> 100V
elec. Accelerationelec. DrivingRecuperation
< 3 kW
< 5%
5 - 15%
25 – 30%
< 12 kW
< 25 kW
15 - 25%
40 … 90 kW< 90 kW
Micro Hybrid12V
Stop/StartBSG
Real CO2 Savings in WLTC
67% (@50km e-range) 100% Savings based on Legislation
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
HybridizationWhy 48V Power Net ?
Classical power net is limited to maximum 250A
Short-time peaks of up to 400A are possible
With introduction of 2nd level power net with 48V the effectively usable power will increase by factor 4
The increase of effective power up to 12 kW (18 kW peak power) @ 48V establishes potentials for further measures of CO2-Emission reduction and future potentials for technical innovation for drivability and aftertreatment
3 6 9 12 P (kW)
200
400
600
800
1000
250 A max.
12 V
48 V
Max. power12 V PN
Max. power48 V PN
A
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 15
48V Power Supply CO2 Reduction with a Mild-Hybrid Powertrain
Depending on the mounting position and the power output of the e-motor the potential for CO2 reduction of a 48V hybrid system is between 3% and 18 %
20 kW is the upper limit for 48V e-motors. With lower power output (e.g. 12 or 15 kW) the potential for CO2 reduction will be around 10%
Sou
rce:
Dr.
M. F
ritz,
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illen
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d, T
. Pfu
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ies
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Pas
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ars,
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IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 16
Pote
ntia
l for
CO
2R
educ
tion
in %
Selected Simulation ResultsVehicle: C-SegmentWeight: 1380 kgEngine: 3-cyl. 1.0 l gasolineTransmission: 6-gear-DCT
48V Power SupplyEnabler for new Technologies
First market launch:already done
48V Hybrid Powertrain:Electrical heated catalyst
Electrical compressor
With a 48V power supply system, some technologies that are reducing CO2-and NOx-emissions are becoming more economic
NOx: - 20% (WLTC)CO2: 5% - 15%First market launch:
not yet (for passenger cars)First market launch:already done
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 17
Hybridization Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) in Europe
18IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
A8AH 5
Mondeo
CR-Z
Ioniq
Q50
Niro
LS 300h
LS 600h
C300
S 400
Note
Range Rover
XV
Prius IV
RAV4
A3 e-tron
Sport quattro
Q7 e-tron225xe 330e 740Le
i3
i8
X5 40e
ELR
Volt
C-Max / Fusion
Ioniq
C 350e
GLC 350e
GLE 500e
S 500e
Outlander
Cayenne S
Panamera 4
Panamera SPanamera TS
Prius Prime
S90 T8V60 D6V60 D6XC 90 T8
Golf 7 Passat 8Passat 8 Var.
Twin UpXL 1 TDI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 5 10 15 20
CO
2-E
mis
sion
[g/
km]
Battery Capacity [kWh]
CO2 - Emission vs. Battery CapacityHEVPHEV
HEV: Typical Battery size of HEV‘s is 2 kWh Limited potential for CO2 savings due to low
battery capacity Limited electric driving capabilities Fuel saving by recuperation and load shifting
HEV
CO2 - neutral Fuels Example from AUDI: production of e-Diesel
The planned facility will have a capacity of around 400,000 liters (105,669 US gal) per year.
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 19
Source: AUDI
The Fischer-Tropsch reaction is used to produce e-diesel from CO2 and renewable energy
Sou
rce:
AU
DI
CO2 - neutral Fuels Power-to-Liquid: e-Diesel Production from Wind Energy
By using such e-diesel fuel, also older cars can run relatively clean However, it is not possible to avoid tailpipe emissions completely Power-to-Liquid plants are currently not yet profitable In some countries, taxes have to be paid for electric energy that is used for
production of e-fuels. Therefor, the EU currently is looking for better boundary conditions for the production of e-fuels Similar to e-Diesel, also Kerosene and Gasoline fuel can be produced CO2 - neutral
Electrolysis of water to oxygen and hydrogen (H2) with green electricity
Reaction of H2 with CO2 in two chemical processes at 220 °C and 25 bar to a liquid of oxygenated hydrocarbons
This process has an efficiency of up to 70%.
Sou
rce:
AU
DI,
2015
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 20
CO2 - neutral FuelsPower-to-Gas (CH4) / Example from AUDI
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 21
Mining & Production of CNG need less effort & energy than for liquid e-fuels
Source: AUDI
CNG PowertrainExample: Audi A4 Avant g-tron
Advantage of e-CNG Engines: Less soot from combustion High knocking resistance Technology is available and relatively cheap compared to electrified PWT Lower CO2 emissions compared to gasoline and diesel
Sou
rce:
AU
DI,
38.
Inte
rnat
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ine
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um,
Vie
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201
7
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 22
Fuel tankCNG pipesCNG pressurecontrol
CNG tank module with 4 CNG bottles19 kg CNG / 200 bar2.0 l TFSI engine
125 kW / 270 Nm
CNG filling plug
85%
CO2 - neutral Fuels Efficiency of Energy Conversion and Driving
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 23
Production Transport
H2
CH4
Electricity
e-Diesel/e-Gasoline
95 %
64 % - 77 % 80 %
90 %
50 %
30 %
30 %
100 %
45% - 50%
Drive
99 %
99 %
Electricity
49 % - 77 %
26 % -31 %
15 % -23 %
13 % -15 %
Sou
rce:
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26 % -31 % -
15 % -23 % -
13 % -15 % -
CO2 - neutral Fuels CNG - European Natural Gas Network
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 24
Europe has a nationwide natural gas infrastructure CH4 from a power-to-gas plant can be fed into the existing gas network.
Sou
rce:
ent
sog,
EN
TSO
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The
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Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 25
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV & PHEV)
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 26
BEV: Shows the best local emission
behaviour Fully depends on charging
infrastructure Operating range depends on costs
PHEV: Both advantages of a BEV and a
combustion engine are combined Real CO2 savings depend on battery
size and use of recharging option Less dependency on charging
infrastructure
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Components of a BEV
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 27
Source: H. Manz, M. Bruna, M. Thiel: Batteriesysteme "Made in Braunschweig"- Aspekte einer neuen Technologie für einen Fahrwerkstandort, Volkswagen AG, 2015
electric motor
power electronic
High-voltage lines
electrical heater
electric air conditioning
electric brake booster
battery
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Low Temperature
Low temperatures significantly reduce the range of electric vehicles
28
BMW i3 (2016): Battery capacity: 21,6 kWhNominal range (NEDC): 190 km Car sharing BMW i3 at ambient
temperature of -6,5°C: range = 67km
Source: BMW
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Value-added Chain of a Battery
The traction battery is today the most important part of an electric vehicle with 30 - 40% share of the added value
The battery cell is the part with the highest added value of the battery pack (60 - 70%)
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 29
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lle: N
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GraphiteMetal Oxides
PolymersSalts
Black CarbonsCu / Al layers
Solvents
AnodesCathodes
SeparatorsElectrolytesSeal BandsPackaging
Current Conductor
Pouch CellRound CellPrisma Cell
BatteryBattery Modules
Materials Components BatteriesCells
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Trend of the Battery Cost 2010 - 2035
Battery costs have dropped over the past years significantly However, battery costs need to be further reduced so that the costs of a BEV
reach a similar level as a passenger car with combustion engine
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 30
Bat
tery
Cos
ts in
EU
RO
/ kW
hFuturePast
Sou
rce:
Roa
lnd
Ber
ger,
2009
; Tes
la, 2
016;
GM
, 201
5, B
loom
berg
, 201
7; U
.S. D
oE, 2
017;
VW
, 201
7; m
obili
lty2.
0,20
13;C
hevr
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, 201
6; P
3 G
roup
, 201
4; H
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A
kaso
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LR, 2
015;
VD
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ZBW
, 201
2; R
WTH
Aac
hen,
200
9;
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Research Project EMBATT - Chassis Embedded Energy
Project Partner: Fraunhofer IKTS, IAV GmbH, thyssenkrupp System Engineering GmbH
Motivation
1000 km electrical driving range by low battery costs and high safety requirements
Amount of storage material in current battery systems comprising of cells, modules and periphery is only about 30-40 %
Modular battery concepts are necessary to achieve requirements for EV and utility vehicles
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 31
Hybrid & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles in Europe
32IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba
A8AH 5
Mondeo
CR-Z
Ioniq
Q50
Niro
LS 300h
LS 600h
C300
S 400
Note
Range Rover
XV
Prius IV
RAV4
A3 e-tron
Sport quattro
Q7 e-tron225xe 330e 740Le
i3
i8
X5 40e
ELR
Volt
C-Max / Fusion
Ioniq
C 350e
GLC 350e
GLE 500e
S 500e
Outlander
Cayenne S
Panamera 4
Panamera SPanamera TS
Prius Prime
S90 T8V60 D6V60 D6XC 90 T8
Golf 7 Passat 8Passat 8 Var.
Twin UpXL 1 TDI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 5 10 15 20
CO
2-E
mis
sion
[g/
km]
Battery Capacity [kWh]
CO2 - Emission vs. Battery CapacityHEVPHEVPHEV
Typical Battery size of PHEV‘s is 5 to 20 kWh Real electric driving capabilities Fuel saving by recuperation and load shifting Additional fuel saving by battery re-charging
HEV
PHEV
Hybrid & EV Transmission Systems
Dedicated transmission systems for hybrid powertrains and even EV‘s help to improve driveability and efficiency
With increasing numbers of hybrid and electric vehicles the development of such dedicated and integrated transmission systems will become worth the effort
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 33
Hybrid & EV Transmission SystemsSelected Examples from IAV
IAV Power Hybrid Dedicated Hybrid Transmission Several hybrid & electric modes Scalable eMotor (90kW,
300Nm) Based on 4-speed 750Nm
Transmission High performance application
IAV Electrified LC Platform Dedicated Hybrid TM Several hybrid & electric
modes 48V-eMotor (15kW) Based on 3-speed 220Nm
Transmission Low Cost application (A- &
B-segment)
IAV eDrive 2nd Generation Pure electric drive unit Scalable eMotor (80kW,
280Nm) Modularity in terms number
of speeds (1- to 3-speeds) A- to D-segment application
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 34
Charging InfrastructureOverview on Different Charging Systems
Standardization is still ongoing Standardization is necessary for charging, billing and vehicle-to-grid
Sou
rce:
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iona
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IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 35
3,6 kW
typical 11 kW(3,6 - 44 kW)
typical 22 kW(up to 50 kW)
typical 50 kW(up to 400 kW)
typical 22 kW(up to 44 kW)
Sou
rce:
NO
W (N
atio
nale
Org
anis
atio
n W
asse
rsto
ff-un
d B
renn
stof
fzel
lent
echn
olog
ie),
2011
Charging InfrastructureCosts Analysis for a Charging Infrastructure
Costs for infrastructure relatively high compared to revenue with charging Additional business models are looked for in order to finance the costs for
charging stations
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 36
One-time costs in EUR per charging point
HardwareChargingStation
HardwareDirect
Payment
Installation ofChargingStation
Connectionto
Power Supply
Building Cost
Subsidy
Designation of E-Parking
Space
Permission for
E-Parking
TotalAmount
Charging InfrastructureExample for Requirements: Berlin, Kantstraße
In residential areas the transition to EV‘s requires huge investments in infrastructure
Solutions for a controlled charging or even discharging of EV‘s for a stabilization of the electrical power network are not available on short-term
Length of the street: 2,3 km
No. of private vehicles(= no. of required parking lots): 800
No. of charging stations: 400
Charging power for eachparking lot: 11 kW
Power demand from the whole street: 4,4 MW(for estimated 50% utilization)
Costs per charging station: 9.000 €
Overall costs per street: 3.6 Mio. €
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 37
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 38
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 39
FCEV: Electric Powertrain with on-board
power generation from H2
Higher mileage possible as with BEV Quicker refilling as with BEV Build-up of H2 refilling stations
faster than build-up of e-charging infrastructure
H2-based Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)First Fuel Cell Vehicle - GM Electrovan (1966)
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 40
Sou
rce:
Ope
l
H2-based Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) DAIMLER GLC F-Cell and TOYOTA Mirai
Up to now, only very few vehicle models with fuel cell are offered in small series
Tank size: 4 kg H2Battery type: Lithium-IonBattery Capacity: 9 kWh Operating range: 500 km in NEDC
Tank size : 5 kg H2Battery type : Lithium-IonBattery Capacity : 1,6 kWh Operating range : 500 km in NEDC
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 41
H2 - based
Sou
rce:
Dai
mle
r and
Toy
ota
Main features
Fuel Cell Test station for FC-Stack up to 180kW elec. power FC-System up to 150kW elec. Power
1000V and 1000A
Development of components, stack and system
Dynamic operation
Suitable for development & durability tasks
Tests at ambient temperature
Link to IAV´s Fuel Cell Vehicle simulation
IAV´s Fuel Cell Test Station
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 42
Comparison FCEV vs. BEVCosts per kWh
Sou
rce:
C. M
ohrd
ieck
, Tec
hnol
ogie
-und
Kos
tenp
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s B
renn
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2. S
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. E
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unsc
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g, 2
015
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 43
Costs per energy content decrease for a FCEV with increasing operating range. For a BEV, they stay nearly constant (costs dominated by the battery)
According to above study, from 350 km operating range a FCEV is less expensive than a BEV
Hydrogen InfrastructureAvailability of H2 Filling Stations in Central Europe
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 44
Sou
rece
: ww
w.n
etin
form
.net
Hydrogen InfrastructureAvailability of H2 Filling Stations in Central Europe
The number of H2 filling stations is still very low Building up a network of H2 filling stations can be realized much faster than
a nation-wide e-charging infrastructure However, the costs for a H2 filling station are ~1 Mio. Euro
H2 refuelling station in France29 H2 stations planned by 2020
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 45
Futre:
Sou
rece
: ww
w.n
etin
form
.net
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 46
Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA):Comparison of Drive Concepts
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Comparison of drive concepts (200.000 km mileage) using fossil-based and carbon-neutral energy sources.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA):Comparison of Drive Concepts
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Battery production is very energy-intensive. Depending on the electricity-mix, CO2 emissions for battery production can be quite high
Comparing conventional vs. electric powertrains, different LCA-studies show different results. This is caused by uncertainties of the CO2 emissions for the battery production, and the values that were used for battery size and vehicle mileage in the simulation
Using e-fuels, a passenger car with combustion engine can theoretically reach very low CO2 life cycle values. However, there are still local emissions from the car and much energy is used for e-fuel production
Comparison of drive concepts (200.000 km mileage) using fossil-based and carbon-neutral energy sources.
Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
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Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
BEV & PHEV VehiclesSales Numbers 2010 - 2016
The market share of BEV and PHEV vehicles is still relatively small in the main automotive markets – however is increasing steadily
The high market share in Norway and the Netherlands is based on high incentives for BEV and PHEV vehicles. The governmental funding of a Tesla X model in Norway is 60.000 Euro.
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BEV = Battery Electric VehiclePHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
BEV & PHEV VehiclesImpact of Incentives
Incentives are still the main driving factor for the sales of BEV and PHEV The EV market is still very fragile. In case of stopping of incentives, a
significant reduction in EV sales numbers can be seen The share of EV‘s in Denmark went down from 2.4% to 0.4% after stopping Annual sales of Tesla vehicles in Hong Kong decreased from 3.000 to near 0
after the incentives were stopped
Market share of BEV and PHEV sales in Denmark
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Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility
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Introduction – where are we today ?
Options for a CO2 - free Mobility
Combustion & Hybrid Engines
Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains
Fuel Cell Powertrain
Life Cycle Assessment
Customer Behaviour & Incentives
Outlook & Conclusions
Content
Outlook: Ways towards a CO2-free MobilityFuture Challenges
To Do: Increase production of fuels
without CO2-impact (e-fuels) Make e-fuels available at petrol
stations
To Do: Reduction of battery costs Increase vehicle range Increase availability of
electrical vehicles Increase share of
green electricity Build up of charging
infrastructure
To Do: Reduction of fuel cell costs Increase availability of fuel-
cell vehicles Build up of H2 infrastructure
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Combustion Engine & Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle(FCEV)
Conclusion
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A carbon-free mobility is necessary and feasible The required powertrain technologies for BEV’s
and FCEV’s are developed and available Main obstacles are still the missing charging
infrastructure, the real-life driving distances of BEV’s and the high production costs In the end, the customer decides how quick and
how many BEV’s and FCEV’s will be on the road – however the government and the cities can make it attractive. A dense network of charging stations, tax exemptions and other incentives can push this Nevertheless, the transition to a totally carbon-
free mobility will not happen within a few years. There will still be vehicles with combustion engines on the market for the next 10-15 years. However, with increasing availability of e-fuels, the CO2-footprint of these engines will be less
Thank YouDr. Ralph Saliba
IAV S.A.S.U.
4 Rue Georges Guynemer, 78280 GuyancourtPhone +33 6 16 22 23 19
ralph.saliba@iav.de
www.iav.com
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