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© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France

Conseil Français de l’EnergieCONSEIL FRANÇAIS DE L’ÉNERGIE

www.wec-france.org

World Energy Scenarios:

the Grand TransitionInstitut d’Etudes Politiques, Paris

1st February 2017

Olivier APPERTprésident

Jean Eudes MONCOMBLEsecrétaire général


About the Conseil Français de l’Énergie

Founded in 1923, French Committee of theWorld Energy Council

Promote the sustainable supplyand use of energy for the greatestbenefit of all people

All resources and all energy technologies,both on supply and demand side

2

STUDIES

PUBLICATIONS

RESEARCH

EVENTS


About the World Energy Council

Principal impartial network of leaders and practitioners

Almost 100 countries (2/3 of developing countries)

Over 3000 member organizations

3

© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France 4

23rd World Energy Congress, Istanbul


The Key Statistics from the 23rd World

Energy Congress (9-13 October 2016)

“Embracing New Frontiers”

• 5,500 delegates from 151 countries

• 4 Heads of State

• 56 government ministers from 48 countries

• 266 speakers from 78 countries

• 50 sessions over 4 days :

– Vision and Scenarios for the Future

– Identifying the Business Opportunities: Resources and Technologies

– Policy Solutions to Secure Prosperity: Embracing the Trilemma

– Africa: Securing a Sustainable Energy Future

• 75 Future Energy Leaders’ Programme participants from 56 countries

• 34 sponsors, ± 2000 exhibitors, 42 media partners

5


Modern

Jazz

Unfinished

Symphony

Hard

Rock

World Energy Scenarios

6


Starting point

• Factors that shaped world energy 1970-2015

– Population and labour force growth

– New technologies and productivity

– Environmental priorities

– International governance and geopolitics

– Energy policies and th role of the state

7


Starting point

• Factors that will shaped world energy 2015-2060

– Population and labour force growth

– New technologies and productivity

– Environmental priorities

– International governance and geopolitics

– Energy policies and th role of the state

8


Pre-determined Elements of

the Grand Transition

Factors shaped

world energy 1970 - 2015

Pre-determined

elements 2015 – 2060

Population /

Workforce

Global population grew 2x

(1.7% p.a.)

Global population will grow

1.4x (0.7% p.a.)

New

Technologies

ICT revolution

Productivity growth rate of

1.7% p.a.

Pervasive digitalisation;

combinatorial impacts and

productivity paradox

Planetary

Boundaries

1,900+ Gt CO2 consumed 1,000 Gt CO2 consumed to

2100 for the 2°C target

Shifts in

Power

Rapid economic rise of

developing nations

Growing role for global

institutions, e.g. UNFCCC,

IMF, WTO, G20

2030: India is most

populous country

2035-45: China is the

world’s largest economy

9


Critical Uncertainties of

the Grand Transition

Modern

Jazz

Unfinished

Symphony

Hard

Rock

Productivity /

Economic

Growth

GDP 3.3% p.a.

(2015–2060)

Digital boost

Tech innovation

GDP per capita 2060

US$ 30,600

GDP 2.9% p.a. (2015–

2060)

Sustainable growth

Circular economies

GDP per capita 2060

US$ 25,200

GDP 1.7% p.a. (2015–

2060)

Fragmented markets

Local content

GDP per capita 2060

US$ 14,700

Climate

Challenge

Cumulative carbon

emission 2015-60

1,491 Gt CO2

Cumulative carbon

emission 2015-60

1,165 Gt CO2

Cumulative carbon

emission 2015-60

1,642 Gt CO2

International

Governance

Economics focused

international

governance

Broad-based

international

governance

Fractured and weak

international system

Tools for

Action

Markets States Patchwork of states

and markets

10


Three Scenarios

Modern Jazz

Market-driven approach to achieving

individual access and affordability of

energy through economic growth

Market mechanisms

Technology

innovation

Energy access for all

Unfinished Symphony

Government-driven approach to

achieving sustainability through

internationally coordinated politics

and practices

Strong policy

Long-term planning

Unified climate action

Hard Rock

Fragmented approach driven by

desire for energy security in a world

with low global cooperation

Fragmented policies

Local content

Best-fit local

solutions11


THE WORLD’S PRIMARY ENERGY

DEMAND GROWTH… will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to

unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more

stringent energy policies.

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2,0

2000 2014 2030 2060

History Modern Jazz

Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Per Capita Primary Energy Demand(TOE)

1

Slower Primary Energy Demand Growth

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DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY

… will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy

sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems

integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.

Electricity Generation(TWh)

2

13© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France

THE PHENOMENAL RISE OF

SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY… will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new

opportunities and challenges for energy systems.

0,2

5,7

7,9

3,3

2014

Modern Jazz2060

UnfinishedSymphony

2060

Hard Rock2060

0,7

8,8

9,3

5,6

Solar Electricity Generation(‘000 TWh)

3

Wind Electricity Generation(‘000 TWh)


15© Conseil Français de l’Énergie

Modern Jazz 2060

Unfinished Symphony 2060

Electricity mix

2014

Coal

Oil

Gas CCS

Geother.

Wind

Hydro

Bio CCS

Coal CCS

Gas

No fossil

Solar

Nuclear

Bio

Hard Rock 2060

DEMAND PEAKS FOR

COAL AND OIL… have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to

“Stranded Resources”.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2014 2030 2060

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2014 2030 2060

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2014 2030 2060

Coal Demand(‘000 MTOE)

Oil Demand(mb/d)

Natural Gas Demand(‘000 MTOE)

4

History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock



Modern Jazz

2060

Unfinished Symphony

2060Hard Rock

2060

2014

Energy mix

Coal

Oil

Others ren

Nuclear

Bio

Gas

No fossil

Hydro

renewable

17

TRANSITIONING GLOBAL

TRANSPORT…… forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to

decarbonise future energy systems.

Electric Vehicles of Light-duty Vehicle Fleets

5

Modern Jazz2060

Unfinished Symphony 2060

Hard Rock2060


19

Diversification of light-duty

vehicle fleet

LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING…

… to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and

enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very

high carbon prices.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2014 2030 2060

History

Modern Jazz

Unfinished Symphony

Hard Rock

IPCC 2°C Target

Annual Carbon Emissions (Gt CO2)

6

Cumulative Carbon Emissions 2015-2060(Gt CO2)


LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING…6


© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil

ENERGY TRILEMMA IN 20607

Modern Jazz

2060

Unfinished

Symphony 2060

Hard Rock

2060



Methodology of the Global Scenarios

Executive interviews, three exploratory

workshops, text analytics1

scenario framing workshops supported

by expert insights from 100+ global

experts

2

Two Scenario building workshops and

eight regional workshops to test ideas3

Refinement of trends and mapping to

energy drivers4

Source: Accenture Strategy

Historical analysis and benchmarking

to quantify key input drivers

5

GMM MARKAL modelling supported by

robust quality control process

6

Define

Alternative

Dynamics

Agree

on Critical

Trends Develop

Distinct

Scenarios

Develop

Dynamic

ModelDefine

Model

Inputs

Run Model

& Analyze

Outputs

1 23

4

5

6

23


World Energy Scenario Workshops

Global Scenario Study Group Workshops

(London: Mar ‘15, May ‘15 , July ’15 ,

Sep ‘15 , Jan ‘16 , April ’16 )

India Energy Congress

India Regional Workshop

(Delhi: Jan ’15 )

22nd World Energy Congress

Launch of Global Scenarios

(Istanbul: Oct ’16 )

China WELD

(Beijing: March ’16 )

Asian Clean Energy

Forum / WELS

Smart Innovation and

LNG presentations

(Manila: Jun ‘15 )

Africa Indaba

African Regional Workshops

(Johannesburg: Feb ‘15 , Feb ‘16 )

2015 WEC Executive Assembly

Presentation of initial Global

Scenario Findings, e-Mobility and

Natural Gas Reports

(Addis Ababa: Oct ‘15 )

North America Regional Workshop

(DC: 4-5 May ‘16 )

EU Regional Scenarios

(Paris: 21-22 Mar ‘16)

Latin America

Regional Workshop

(Rio: 17 Nov ‘15)

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MARKAL model

Inputs

Critical Insights on Dynamics Between Variables

Scenario Outputs

• Primary Energy

• Final Consumption

• Energy Intensity

Scenario A

Resource AvailabilitiesLearning Curves Regulatory Policies

Multi-Variable

Dynamic Model

Model Constraints

Published Results

Key Assumptions

Raw Data Outputs

Electricity

Generation

Examples

Regional

Resources

Greenhouse

Emissions

Efficiency

Growth

Regulation / Policies

Resource Availability

25


Conseil Français de l’EnergieCONSEIL FRANÇAIS DE L’ÉNERGIE

www.wec-france.org

World Energy Scenarios:

the Grand TransitionInstitut d’Etudes Politiques, Paris

1st February 2017

Olivier APPERTprésident

Jean Eudes MONCOMBLEsecrétaire général

World Energy Scenarios: the Grand Transition - wec … · World Energy Scenarios: the Grand...

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