Une analyse de l’industrie VFBF1. Offre: technologie & coûts2. Demande: tendance et volatilité3. Segmentation de l’industrie

La restructuration de l’acier aux Etats-Unis1. L’héritage de la Seconde guerre mondiale2. Les problèmes structurels3. La réponse gouvernementale4. La restructuration

La politique sidérurgique américaine: interprétation1. La “capture”2. Hypothèses alternatives

La restructuration de l’acier dans l’Union Européenne1. Le Plan Davignon2. Implications à long terme et leçons

La restructuration du secteur sidérurgiqueaux Etats-Unis et en Europe

Une analyse de l’industrie VFBF1. Offre: technologie et coûts

Minimum efficient scale

output

unit costs

Installed capacity 1

Installed capacity 2

Installed capacity 3

minimum efficient scale (MES)

Average cost curves

Une analyse de l’industrie VFBF3. Segmentation

Integrated mills and minimills: comparison of cost structures

Une analyse de l’industrie VFBF 4. Restructuration

Integrated mills and minimills: installed capacity, 1974 and 1994

La restructuration de l’acier aux Etats-Unis4. Restructuration et relocalisation

Steel mill location, US, 1974

Steel restructuring in the US4. Restructuration et relocalisation

Steel mill location, US, 1994

Equations:

VoteReprj = f(Contsteelj+, ContAutoj

-, ProdCapj+, FtVotej

-, Empsteelj+, EmpAutoj

-, RCapMinj-, uj)

Contsteelj = g(Importantj+, Partyj

-, vj)

ContAutoj = h(Importantj+, Partyj

+, wj)

j = 1..100

Dependent variable (to be explained)

VoteReprj : vote on 1999 steel-quota bill (yes=1)

Explanatory variables

Consteelj : dollar amount of contributions from steel companies and unions (PACs)

ContAutoj : dollar amount of contributions from auto companies and unions (PACs)

Prodcapj : steelmaking capacity in j’s congressional district (thousand tons)

FtVotej : fast track authorityvote, yes=2, abst=1, no=0

Empsteelj : steel employment in district (SIC[1] 3310 et 3320)

EmpAutoj : auto employment in district (SIC 3710)

RCapMinj : % of steelmaking capacity accounted for by minimills

Importantj : Representative j’s political importance proxied by total contributions (dollars)

Partyj : 1=republican

[1] US Standard Industrial Classification

Interprétations

1. La capture

Variable Marginal effect Coefficient Mean Standard deviation

Constant 0.065472 0.254901(0.341073)(0.747350)

1 0

Contsteelj** 0.000227 0.000885

(0.000208)(4.248813)

1668(dollars)

2691.30(dollars)

ContAutoj* -0.0000670 -0.000261

(0.000120)(-2.178903)

1752(dollars)

2745.374(dollars)

Prodcapj* 0.0000254 0.0000990

(0.0000395)(2.504312)

5341.55(thousand tons)

8375.496(thousand tons)

FtVotej** -0.191331 -0.744906

(0.211283)(-3.525633)

0.72(yes=2, abs=1,

no=0)

0.954310(yes=2, abs=1,

no=0)

Empsteelj -0.0000357 -0.000139(0.000176)

(-0.791660)

895.5616(number of jobs)

1294.243(number of jobs)

EmpAutoj -0.0000131 -0.0000510(0.0000870)(-0.585965)

2234.584(number of jobs)

3754.875(number of jobs)

Regression results 1

Interprétations

1. La capture

Regression results 2

Variable Marginal effect

Coefficient Mean Standard deviation

Constant 0.584082 2.419182(1.100215)(2.198827)

1 0

Contsteelj** 0.000238 0.000987

(0.000225)(4.381999)

1668(dollars)

2691.30(dollars)

ContAutoj* -0.0000625 -0.000259

(0.000123)(-2.105142)

1752(dollars)

2745.374(dollars)

Prodcapj* 0.00000893 0.0000370

(0.0000494)(0.747969)

5341.55(thousand tons)

8375.496(thousand tons)

FtVotej** -0.175347 -0.726261

(0.230398)(-3.152202)

0.72(yes=2, abs=1,

no=0)

0.954310(yes=2, abs=1,

no=0)

Empsteelj -0.0000488 -0.000202(0.000176)

(-1.150557)

895.5616(number of

jobs)

1294.243(number of

jobs)

EmpAutoj -0.0000169 -0.00007(0.0000934)(-0.749734)

2234.584(number of

jobs)

3754.875(number of

jobs)

RCapMinj* -0.005785 -0.023961

(0.011217)(-2.136034)

77.26862(%)

32.08944(%)

Interprétations

1. La capture