Trash & Treasures of Duplication - Nielsen AudioTrash & Treasures of Duplication Cross-Media Synergy...

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© 2002 Arbitron Inc.

By

R. McConochie, Ph.D.Arbitron Inc.

Beth UyencoOptimum Media

June 2002

Trash & Treasuresof DuplicationCross-Media Synergy Prospects from Arbitron�s Portable People Meters (PPM)

2 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.

Insights into Target�s Cross-Media Usage

� Understanding target�s uses of multiple media » Including correction of random duplication estimation

� Enabling more intelligent media campaigns, over time, across media

� Fine-tuning principles of more effective, efficient planning

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The First PPM Cross-Media Investigation, 2001

� PPM�s �real� cross-media data

� Show variations in target duplication by time period


PPM 2001 Results Show Cross-Media Duplication Highest in Evening

0 20 40 60 80 100

M-F 19:00-24:00

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 6:00-8:00

Cume Percent

Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

TV Only

Both TV & Radio

Radio Only

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Narrower Targets Show Different Patterns of Duplication

� Younger target shows more radio-TV duplication

� Older target shows higher exclusive-TV cume


M-F 19:00-24:00

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 6:00-8:00

2001 Results Point to Cross-Media Target-Demo Variations

0 20 40 60 80 100

18-34

35+

18-34

35+

18-34

35+

Cume Percent

Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

TV Only

Both TV & Radio

Radio Only

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PPM�s �Measured� Reach May Differ from What Random Duplication Estimates� Random duplication is current convention

for estimating cross-media plans� net reach

( A ( A ++ B) B) �� ƒƒ (A (A XX B)B)

� Actual data show duplication is systematic, not random»Varies by time period

»Varies by demographic target


0 20 40 60 80 100

M-F 6:00-8:00

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 19:00-24:00

Cume Percent

Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18+Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

PPM

Random

Random close enough for evening hours but off in other time periods.

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0 20 40 60 80 100

M-F 6:00-8:00

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 19:00-24:00

Cume Percent

Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P35+Persons 35+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

PPM

Random

Random underestimates reach in 2 of 3 time periods.


PPM�s �Real� Reach May Correct Random-Duplication Estimation

� In contrast to random duplication�»PPM�s total reach differs most from random duplication between 8:00 and 10:00

»PPM�s reach exceeds random for Persons 18+for Persons 35+

»PPM�s reach less than random for Persons 18-34

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0 20 40 60 80 100

M-F 6:00-8:00

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 19:00-24:00

Cume Percent

Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18-34Persons 18-34 Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

PPM

Random

Random overestimates reach in all time periods.


PPM Can Enable More Intelligent Media Campaign

� Understanding how to complement a million-dollar �Super Bowl� communications centerpiece

� How to drive people to the Super Bowl, via which media

� How to reinforce the Super Bowl centerpiece after the event

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Super Bowl: Most Expensive Show of the Year and One of the Top-Rated in Any Given Year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

Source: Nielsen Media Research

Hou

seho

ld R

atin

gSuper Bowl Trends

Cos

t of a

:30

Ad ($

mill

ions

)


Super Bowl

Used with permission from the NFL. ArtVuelo Video

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68

68

74

65

0 20 40 60 80 100

21:00-22:00

20:00-21:00

19:00-20:00

18:00-19:00

Average Quarter-Hour Reach

Cume Percent

Men 18-49, Sun., Feb. 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA® PPM Panel

Communication-Campaign Centerpiece: Enormous Super Bowl Reach

Broadcast TV

16 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.* AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media.

Super Bowl Reach Excludes Most Other Same-Time Media: Minimal Duplication* Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Sun., Feb 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

0 20 40 60 80 100

21:00-22:00

20:00-21:00

19:00-20:00

18:00-19:00

Total Cume Percent

Other Broadcast TV

Cable TV

Radio Only

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Investigation Design: Tracking Flow over PPM Panel � Promote the centerpiece ad prior to the event

� Reinforce the centerpiece after the event

Advance PromoThurs., Jan. 31

Advance PromoThurs., Jan. 31

Super BowlSun., Feb. 3 Super BowlSun., Feb. 3

Follow-UpWed., Feb. 6Follow-Up

Wed., Feb. 6


Super Bowl Audience Duplication Highest in Peak-Media Time Periods

� Men 18-49 viewers of Super Bowl are most reachable in...»Radio during morning-drive time

»Television in prime access and prime time

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Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM-Measured Media, Jan 31, 2002

0 20 40 60 80 100

21:00-22:00

18:00-19:00

8:00-9:00

Total Cume Percent

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

* AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media.

Broadcast TV

Cable TV

Radio


Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM-Measured Media, Feb 6, 2002Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

0 20 40 60 80 100

21:00-22:00

18:00-19:00

8:00-9:00

Total Cume Percent* AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media.

Broadcast TV

Cable TV

Radio

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Fewer Media Contribute to Super Bowl�s Peak-Time Duplication

� About four radio stations account for about half of Morning Drive duplication

� About two TV channels account for about half of evening Prime-Time duplication


8:00-9:00 Radio Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Viewers by Five Key Radio Stations

0 20 40 60 80 100

February 6

January 31

Total Cume Percent

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 8:00-9:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002,Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Top

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th to 20th

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Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 21:00-22:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002,Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

21:00-22:00 TV Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Viewers by Three Key TV Stations

0 20 40 60 80 100

February 6

January 31

Total Cume Percent

Top

2nd

3rd

4th to 8th


Few Media Also Contribute to the Smaller �Off-Peak� Duplication

� Two to three TV channels account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication

� Four to five radio stations account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication

� But the level of duplication is smaller

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Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Jan. 31, 2002,Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Thursday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jan. 31 Radio

Jan. 31 All TV

Total Cume Percent* All TV includes both broadcast and cable.

Top

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Others


Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Feb. 6, 2002,Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Wednesday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations

0 20 40 60 80 100

Feb. 6 Radio

Feb. 6 All TV*

Total Cume Percent* All TV includes both broadcast and cable.

Top

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Others

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Which Is the Best Communication Plan?

� Total reach among target?

� Fewer channels, less complex plan?

� More channels and more complexity?

� Which time period is best?


The Most Efficient Plan... � Targeted media with relatively small

overall reach

� During off-peak times

� To build reach within target and minimize excess frequency and nontarget waste

� As follows

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Optimal Cost Range

Optimizing PPM-Measured Cross-Media Target Reach & Minimizing Nontarget Waste

% Total Possible Spots/Cost

% T

arge

t Rea

ch (F

req.

= 3

)


Most Efficient Media to Complement Super Bowl Centerpiece

� Off-peak media

� FM radio, and AM

� Cable TV, especially targeted cable

� Broadcast TV increases target coverage�but at a high cost

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Another Way of Using Duplication Patterns

� For advertisers who find the Super Bowl unaffordable but need to reach the same audience:» Advertise on the other vehicles the Super Bowl

viewers would use: radio drive time and TV early evening and prime time periods

� What can $150,000 deliver a local advertiser?One Spot on Super Bowl Radio Drive + TV Evening

GRPS 36 216

1+ Reach 36 >36

Source: Nielsen TV ratings and Arbitron Radio ratings for Philadelphia, Jan/Feb 2002


What It Means for Media Planning:� True reach for radio and TV

campaigns which we can then optimize on the basis of:

»Reach maximization: by vehicle and not just by media form

»Maximize communication effectiveness: delivering message when target is most open to hearing or seeing it

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PPM Reports True Reach Across Radio and TV Vehicles

6:006:00

18:0018:00

12:0012:00

24:0024:00

R1R2 R3

R5 R7

TV13

TV5TV3

TV2TV1R4

TV4

TV6 TV7

TV8

TV10TV9

TV12

TV11

TV15

TV14

R6

R8

R13

R9

R14 R15

R12 R11

R10 R16

TV5


TV13

TV10

R15

R12

R10

PPM Reports True Reach Across Radio and TV Vehicles

6:006:00

18:0018:00

12:0012:00

24:0024:00

R1R2 R3

R5

TV3

TV1R4

TV4

TV6 TV7

TV8

TV9

TV12

TV11

TV15

TV14

R6

R8

R13

R9

R14

R11

R16

TV5

R7

TV5

TV2

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What It Means for Media Buying� Aids negotiations in cross-platform media buys»Multi-station ownership within markets

»Cross-media ownership

Radio and TV


Almost Half of All Radio Stations in the Philadelphia Market Are Owned by Companies with Multiple Stations:

Owner Medium StationViacom Radio KYW-AM

Television KYWD (CBS affiliate) WPSG (UPN affiliate)

Clear Channel Radio WDAS-AM WDAS-FM WIOQ-FM WJJZ-FM

Greater Media Radio WMGK-FM WMMR-FM WMWX-FM WPEN-AM

Beasley Radio WPTP-FM WTMR-AM WWDB-FM WXTU-FM

Infinity Radio WIP-AM WOGL-FM WPHT-AM WYSP-FM

Salem Radio WFIL-AM WZZD-AM

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PPM Contributions� Understanding target�s uses of

multiple media » Including correction of random duplication estimation

� Enabling more intelligent media campaigns, over time, across media

� Fine-tuning principles of more effective, efficient planning

Trash & Treasures of Duplication - Nielsen AudioTrash & Treasures of Duplication Cross-Media Synergy...

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