The MOLAND Model Calibration and Validation for Calibration Procedure • The macro and micro...

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  • Decision Support Tools for Managing Urban Environment in Ireland

    The MOLAND Model Calibration and Validation for

    the Greater Dublin Region Dr Harutyun Shahumyan

    harutyun.shahumyan@ucd.ie

    University College Dublin

    mailto:harutyun.shahumyan@ucd.ie

  • MOLAND Models at 3 coupled spatial scales

    • Global level

    Growth figures for the population and the jobs are entered into the model as trend lines.

    • Regional level

    Arranges for the allocation of the Global growth as well as for the interregional migration of activities and residence based on relative attractiveness of the counties.

    • Local level

    The detailed allocation of economic activities and people is modelled by means of a Cellular Automata based land use model.

  • 1926 1946 1956 1966 1979 1986 1996 2006

    Population and Employment Trends

    Transport Zones Accessibility

    Suitability

    Zoning

    Land use map at time T

    Land use map at time T+1

    MICRO MODEL

    Local Level (426,500 cells)

    Neighbourhood Rules

    Socio-Economic Information

    Global Level (Greater Dublin Region)

    Land Use Transition in MOLAND Model

    Time step: 1 year

    Regional Level (5 counties in the Region)

    MACRO MODEL

  • Parameters Description

    The attractivity of region i on sector k at time t

    Population potential in sector k and region i at time t

    Job potential in sector k and region i at time t

    Activity potential in sector k and region i at time t

    The productivity of sector k in region i at time t-1 (previous time step)

    [unit: # people or jobs / cell]

    The average neighbourhood effect of sector k in region i at time t

    The average suitability of sector k in region i at time t

    The average zoning of sector k in region i at time t

    The average accessibility of sector k in region i at time t

    ,

    t

    k iVP

    ,

    t

    k iVJ

    ,

    t

    k iV

    1

    ,

    t

    k iW 

    1

    ,

    t

    k iR 

    1

    ,

    t

    k iS 

    1

    ,

    t

    k iZ 

    1

    ,

    t

    k iA 

    1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10,1 1 1 1 1

    , , , , , , , , , k k k k k k k kt t t t t t t t t

    k i k i k i k i k i k i k i k i k iT VP VJ V W R S Z A                   

    ,

    t

    k iT

    Macro Model: Interregional Attractivity

  • Parameters Description

    CA transition potential of cell (x,y) for land use K

    Scalable stochastic perturbation term

    Suitability of cell (x,y) for land use K

    Zoning of cell (x,y) for land use K

    Accessibility of cell (x,y) for land use K at time t

    Neighbourhood effect for cell (x,y) for land use K at time t

    Micro Model: CA Transition Potential

    4321

    )()()()( ,,,,,,,,,, KKKK

    yxK

    t

    yxK

    t

    yxK

    t

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    t RAZSP  

    yxK

    t P ,,

    t

    1

    )( ,, K

    yxKS 

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    )( ,, K

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      1tv In rand 

      

  • Sample MOLAND Simulation - Output

    24 Land use classes

  • Suitability maps

    In MOLAND the suitability values are expressed on a scale of 0 (completely unsuitable) to 10 (highly suitable), and are computed using:

    • Slope map

    • Aspect map

    • Soil quality map

    • Agricultural capacity

    • Natural hazards maps

    • Geomorphologic map

    • Air, noise, water, soil

    pollution maps

  • Zoning Maps

    • The model uses a zoning raster file with binary cell values, namely, permitted (0) and not permitted (1). That is, zoning specifies whether a cell may or may not be taken over by a specific land use.

    • 3 zoning periods are allowed: – Permitted throughout simulation period

    – Permitted between time T1 and time T2

    – Permitted between time T2 and time T3

    • GDR zoning maps were developed based on special protection, conservation and national heritage areas.

  • Accessibility Maps

    Accessibility maps capture the relative importance of access to the transportation networks for the various land uses: for example, activities like “commerce” require better accessibility than “agricultural use” in order to facilitate the supply and transport of goods and services.

  • Social-Economic Information

    • Population counts by counties – Population censuses 1986, 1991, 1996, 2002 and 2006

    • Place of work data by counties in 3 industrial groups (Industry, Commerce and Services) – POWSAR 2002, POWCAR 2006

    – Occupation by place of residence data from CSO censuses 1991, 1996, 2002 and 2006

  • Calibration Procedure

    • The macro and micro sub-models are decoupled and calibrated individually in the initial stages.

    • In the first instance, the micro-model is calibrated.

    • Next, the parameters of the macro-model are calibrated.

    • In the final stages, they are coupled again and calibration carried out on the linked models.

  • Calibration Phases

    NE

    A

    Z

    S

    P , J

    NE

    A

    Z

    S

    P , J

    NE

    A

    Z

    S

    P , J

    1990

    Calibration Validation Application

  • Macro Model Calibration Results (2000-2006 calibration)

    Population Actual Value CSM (Error %) Simulated (Error %)

    Base year 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000

    End Year 1990 2000 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006

    Louth 90941 98603 111267 1.98% 0.77% -1.19% 6.93% 10.19% 3.14%

    Meath 105072 125914 162831 -7.73% -20.44% -13.78% 4.41% -0.09% -3.17%

    Dublin 1024533 1101302 1187176 2.87% 6.41% 3.44% -0.80% -0.71% 0.03%

    Kildare 121374 154293 186335 -13.02% -19.69% -7.67% -5.96% -8.14% -2.52%

    Wicklow 96720 110678 126194 -3.37% -5.50% -2.21% 5.06% 9.82% 4.76%

    Total 1438641 1590790 1773803 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    RMSE 5.47% 11.47% 6.15% 2.31% 3.04% 1.24%

  • Macro Model Calibration Results (2000-2006 calibration)

    Industry Actual Value CSM (Error %) Simulated (Error %)

    Base year 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000

    End Year 1990 2000 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006

    Louth 9669 13179 18236 2.50% -13.89% -15.99% 54.11% 46.74% 6.75%

    Meath 9888 17285 31040 -20.08% -48.26% -35.27% 50.46% 13.14% -9.14%

    Dublin 119521 156939 157445 6.40% 23.29% 15.87% -18.75% -15.59% 0.00%

    Kildare 11934 22231 33626 -25.00% -42.36% -23.15% 32.50% 16.51% -0.33%

    Wicklow 8959 13860 19453 -9.70% -25.20% -17.17% 45.84% 32.91% 8.84%

    Total 159971 223494 259800 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    RMSE 12.08% 36.54% 24.71% 32.97% 23.79% 3.05%

  • Macro Model Calibration Results (2000-2006 calibration)

    Commerce Actual Value CSM (Error %) Simulated (Error %)

    Base year 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000

    End Year 1990 2000 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006

    Louth 6101 9139 14970 -2.56% -23.55% -21.54% 47.38% 37.81% 6.53%

    Meath 4555 8688 23693 -23.48% -63.94% -52.88% 112.84% 23.36% -7.74%

    Dublin 148331 209911 234042 3.14% 18.88% 15.27% -16.10% -11.87% 0.00%

    Kildare 6499 12826 29199 -26.05% -58.25% -43.55% 92.13% 31.89% 0.45%

    Wicklow 6065 9822 19886 -9.87% -42.79% -36.53% 79.86% 36.53% 3.62%

    Total 171551 250386 321790 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    RMSE 6.90% 35.14% 28.30% 34.10% 21.68% 1.53%

  • Macro Model Calibration Results (2000-2006 calibration)

    Services Actual Value CSM (Error %) Simulated (Error %)

    Base year 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000

    End Year 1990 2000 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006

    Louth 5142 8310 12130 -11.28% -22.81% -13.00% 28.37% 29.81% 8.84%

    Meath 3828 7284 17750 -24.64% -60.73% -47.89% 94.74% 26.41% -7.94%

    Dublin 97013 133591 145888 4.12% 21.08% 16.28% -17.58% -14.59% 0.02%

    Kildare 6395 10790 22539 -15.02% -48.34% -39.21% 73.93% 26.82% -3.95%

    Wicklow 3864 6699 13349 -17.29% -47.30% -36.28% 93.26% 52.02% 8.99%

    Total 116242 166673 211656 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    RMSE 8.32% 37.03% 28.75% 35.68% 25.29% 2.45%

  • Macro Model Calibration Results (1990-2006 calibration)

    Population Industry Commerce Services

    Base

    year 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000 1990 1990 2000

    End Year 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006 2000 2006 2006

    Louth 2.4% 2.4% 0.7% 20.1% 7.2% -9.1% 16.4% -0.8% -9.8% 0.6% -6.9% -6.6%

    Meath 8.2% 2.3% -3.2% 24.9% -4.8% -18.0% 61.9% -6.0% -25.6% 57.0% 0.1% -20.4%

    Dublin -0.6% 0.0% 0.2% -7.2% 0.1% 7.4% -8.6% -0.2% 6.0% -9.1% -0.6% 6.1%

    Kildare -7.5% -8.9% -2.3% 3.4% -10.0% -13.