TACHE’2’ ’Développementd ... - oracle.lsce.ipsl.fr Calculaon ’of’the’indicators’...

ORACLE (ANR 2011) ≪ Opportunités et Risques pour les Agroécosystèmes et les forêts en réponse aux

changements CLimaDquEs, socio-‐économiques et poliDques en France (et en Europe) ≫

TACHE 2 ≪ Développement d’indicateurs écoclimaDques de la faisabilité des grandes cultures dans un

contexte de changement climaDque≫

J.Caubel, I. Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, M. Launay

27/09/2012, Réunion ORACLE, tâche 2

CalculaDon of the indicators in the context of climate

change

Proposal of ecoclimaDc indicators to

characterize crop feasibility

Analysis of the results

Exchange of proposals and results to the stakeholders

SelecDon and validaDon of relevant indicators

Improvement and / or proposal of new

indicators Proposal of adapted systems

SpaDal projecDons

ObjecDves

UncertainDes (SRES, regionalizaDon methods) Proposal of ecoclimaDc

indicators to characterize crop

feasibility

UncertainDes (SRES, regionalizaDon methods)

CalculaDon of the indicators in the context of climate

change

Analysis of the results

1. Proposed ecoclimaDc indicators


= an agroclimaDc indicator calculated during phenological phases ⟺ Considera+on of plant phenology

Phenological phase Ecoclima+c indicator Ecophysiological process

Period of grain filling Occurrence of heatshock Grain filling

1.1. Methodology

An ecoclima+c indicator is defined as

Ecoclima+c indicators are useful for

à describing an ecophysiological process ⟺ InformaDon about crop feasibility à giving informaDon on average condi+ons, extreme events and crop management feasibility Example

AgroclimaDc indicator

EcoclimaDc indicator

January 1 July 31

Sowing Harvest

▫ Listed and calculated (at the year scale) by Anne-‐Isabelle ▫ Based on T, rainfall, solar radia+on, water balance, … ▫ Type: periods, number of days, spells, … ▫ Calculated with thresholds, …

Sowing BBCH 00

Emergence BBCH 09

Beginning of stem elongaDon BBCH 30

Flowering BBCH 65

Harvest BBCH 89

Indicators related to phenological phases

Indicators based on agroclima+c indicators?

1.1. Methodology

General structure of ecoclima+c indicators

EcoclimaDc indicator = f(climaDc variable, date 1, date 2, parameters…)

ClimaDc variable (for e.g., temperature)

Date 1 : phenological stage 1 (for e.g., flowering) Date 2 : phenological stage 2 (for e.g., harvest)

Parameters -‐ Biological thresholds (for e.g., temperature threshold of grain heatshock) -‐ Number of days defining a spell (for e.g., number of days defining a heatshock spell)

1.2. The proposed ecoclimaDc indicators (winter wheat)

1.2. The proposed ecoclimaDc indicators (winter wheat)


Sowing → Emergence Occurrence of frost on plantlets (%) Occurrence of severe frost on plantlets (%) Occurrence of unfavorable days for development (%)

Plantlets mortality

Plantlets development

Emergence → Beginning of stem

elongaDon

Occurrence of frost on leaves(%) Occurrence of severe frost on leaves(%) Occurrence of days with vernalisaDon (%) Occurrence of cold nights (%), Occurrence of cold days(%) Occurrence of unfavorable days for development (%)

Leaves mortality

VernalisaDon

Plant development

Beginning of stem elongaDon→ Flowering

Occurrence of frost on flowers (%) Occurrence of severe frost on flowers (%) Occurrence of days with vernalisaDon (%) Occurrence of cold nights (%), Occurrence of cold days(%) Occurrence of unfavorable days for development (%)

Flowers mortality

VernalisaDon

Plant development

Sowing → Flowering Start, end and period length of frost Number of frost spells

Mortality of seedlings and plants

Flowering → Harvest

Occurrence of heatshock days (%) Number of heatshock spells Start and end of the heatshock period Occurrence of warm nights (%) Occurrence of warm days (%) Occurrence of unfavorable days for development (%)

Grain filling Quality

Plant development

All phases Minimal T. (°C) , Maximal T. (°C), Mean T. (°C) Average dail temperature range (°C)

Plant development

Ecoclima+c indicators based on temperature


All phases

Occurrence of days with heavy rain (%) Occurrence of days with very heavy rain (%) Part of heavy rainfall (% heavy rainfall/ total rainfall) Part of very heavy rainfall (% very heavy rainfall/ total rainfall) Cumulated rainfall ( mm) Occurrence of rainy days (%) Average daily rainfall (mm) Cumulated solar radiaDon (joules/cm²) Length of the longest dry period (without rain) Water deficit (rainfall – ET0) (mm/phase) Occurrence of days for which P-‐ ET0 < threshold Soil Wetness Index [(0-‐1])* Occurrence of days with dry soil (wwilt) (%) Occurrence of days with very dry soil (wwilt) (%) Occurrence of days with wet soil (wfc) (%)

Crop weakening or destrucDon (erosion, runoff, lodging) Growth Water stress Waterlogging

Around stages (+/-‐ x days)

Occurrence of days with wet soil ( wfc) (%) Feasibility of crop intervenDons

Not yet calculated: need for the calculaFon of a water balance or difficulty to define the threshold

*Soil wetness Index = (w – wwilt)/(wfc – wwilt) Holding capacity

WelDng point

Soil water content (CLIMSEC report)

Ecoclima+c indicators based on rainfall, solar radia+on and water balance 1.2. The proposed ecoclimaDc indicators (winter wheat)

Phenological phase

Ecoclima+c indicator Ecophysiological process

Sowing period (+/-‐ x days)

(a * wwilt) < W ≤ wfc

+ Cumulated rainfall ( during y days > threshold + T ( during y days) > minimal temperature of development

Decision to sow

Not yet calculated: need for the calculaFon of a water balance

Ecoclima+c indicators based on several condi+ons 1.2. The proposed ecoclimaDc indicators (winter wheat)

Paramètres Blé Références pour bléT min de vernalisation -‐1,3°C Porter and Gawith, 1999T max de vernalisation 15,7°C Porter and Gawith, 1999T gel sur plantules -‐4°C Brisson et al., 2009T gel sur feuilles -‐10°C Brisson et al., 2009T gel sur fleurs -‐4,5°C Brisson et al., 2009T gel fort sur plantules -‐20°C Brisson et al., 2009T gel fort sur feuilles -‐20°C Brisson et al., 2009T gel fort sur fleurs 6,5°C Brisson et al., 2009T seuil d'échaudage 25°C Gate et al., 2010T min de développement 0°C Brisson et al., 2009; Soltani and Sinclair, 2012; Gate et al., 1995T max de développement 35°C Brisson et al., 2009; Soltani and Sinclair, 2012; Gate et al., 1995Nb jours consécutifs définissant une vague d'échaudage 3 joursNb jours consécutifs définissant une vague de gel 3 jours

Pluie seuil définissant une forte pluie 10 mm ONERC (http://www.onerc.org/fr/indicateur/summary/1580) Déqué (2007) http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/

Pluie seuil définissant une très forte pluie 20 mm ONERC (http://www.onerc.org/fr/indicateur/summary/1580) Déqué (2007) http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/

Seuil P-‐ET0 ?Nb jours autour des stades pour accès au champ 5 jours JRC Mars Unit (http://www.marsop.info/marsop3/index.jsp)Nb jours autour du semis pour l'optimisation de sa date 60 joursPluie seuil pour optimisation date de semis ?Nb jours après semis pour optimisation de sa date 5 jours Brisson et al., 2009

The parameters to calculate the ecoclima+c indicators 1.2. The proposed ecoclimaDc indicators (winter wheat)

1.2. Les indicateurs écoclimaDques proposés (blé tendre)

▫ To calculate the indicators related to a water balance calculaDon ▫ To develop the indicators characterizing the feasibility of crop intervenDons (around stages) ▫ To develop the same method for other crops ( especially summer crops)

Remains to be done

2. Use of the ecoclimaDc indicators to study crop feasibility in the context of climate change


▫ Winter crops: winter wheat, rape ▫ Summer crops: maize, sunflower, sorgho

↔ Phenology simulated by several crop models

CulDvated area (ha) in France

2.1. Materials Feasibility of which crops?

CLIMATIC SCENARIOS SRES x GCM x RegionalisaDon

DAILY DATA (1950-‐2100) •  Temperature •  Rainfall •  Solar radiaDon •  Vapor pressure •  Wind speed •  [CO2] •  ET0 correcDon [CO2]

SRES GCM RégionalisaDon (8 x 8km) Init. B1 ARPEGE CorrecDons variables (CV)

A1B ARPEGE Anomalies (Ano) A1B ARPEGE CorrecDons variables (CV) A1B ARPEGE Types de temps (TT) i1

A1B ARPEGE Types de temps (TT) i2 A2 ARPEGE CorrecDons variables (CV)

12 FRENCH SITES

Versailles

Avignon

Mirecourt

Toulouse

Bordeaux

Rennes

Theix

Colmar

Dijon

St-‐EDenne

Mons

Lusignan

Clima+c data and sites 2.1. Materials

SRES * Régional. * variety

Emergence Beginning of SE Flowering Harvest

A1B * CV * Early PANORAMIX PANORAMIX

A1B * Ano * Early PANORAMIX PANORAMIX

A1B * CV * Late STICS STICS, CERES STICS, CERES STICS, CERES

A1B * Ano * Late STICS STICS, CERES STICS, CERES, PANORAMIX

STICS, CERES, PANORAMIX

A2 * CV * Late CERES CERES, PANORAMIX CERES, PANORAMIX

B1 * CV * Late CERES CERES CERES

Phenological data

Wheat simulated by PANORAMIX, CERES and STICS crop models (sown on October 20)

Maize and rape simulated by STICS

SRES * Régional. * variety Emergence Beginning of SE Flowering Harvest

A1B * CV * Early

STICS A1B * Ano * Early

A1B * CV * Late

A1B * Ano * Late

2.1. Materials

Sunflower Simulated by STICS and SUNFLO (sown on April 10)

Phenological data

SRES * Régional. * variety Emergence Beginning of SE Flowering Harvest

A1B * CV * Early

STICS SUNFLO

STICS

STICS SUNFLO

STICS SUNFLO

A1B * Ano * Early

A1B * CV * Late

A1B * Ano * Late

A2 * CV * Late

A2 * CV * Early

B1 * CV * Late

B1 * CV * Late

2.1. Materials

Phenological data

Simula+ons with different sowing dates

2.1. Materials

Sunflower with SUNFLO Sowing dates : 01/03, 25/03, 10/04, 10/05, 30/05 for the A1B*Ano and A1B*CV scenarios (early and late culDvar)

Winter wheat with STICS and PANORAMIX ▫ Sowing dates with STICS: 20/09, 01/10, 20/10, 10/11, 01/12 for the A1B*Ano and *A1B CV scenarios (early and late culDvar) ▫ Sowing dates with PANORAMIX: 20/09, 01/10, 10/10, 20/10, 30/10, 10/11,01/12 for the A1B*Ano, A1B*CV and A2*CV (early and late culDvar)

Crop model Sowing → Emergence

Emergence → Beginning of SE

Beginning ET → Flowering


CERES-‐wheat Air T

Soil water content Depth of sowing

Air T Cold requirements

Photoperiod

Air T

PANORAMIX-‐wheat

Air T Depth of sowing

Air T Cold requirements

Photoperiod

Air T Photoperiod

Air T

SUNFLO-‐sunflower Air T, depth soil Air T, water stress

STICS-‐wheat/rape Soil T Soil water content

Crop T Photoperiod

Cold requirements AbioDc stresses

Crop T AbioDc stresses

STICS-‐maize/ sunflower/ sorgho



Phenological data

Input variables used to simulate crop phenology in the different crop models

2.1. Materials

TMAX

Phenological data

Differences in the response func+on to temperature according to the crop models simula+ng winter wheat

TBASE Crop temperature (°C)

Daily effecDve temperature (°C)

STICS crop model PANORAMIX and CERES crop models

TOPT TBASE Air temperature (°C) TMAX

⇛ STICS: no negaDve effect of too high temperatures on crop development

2.1. Materials

Daily effecDve temperature (°C)

2.2. Method for the calculaDon of the indicators

With the R programming language ▫ Indicators calcula+on Indicators library Request funcDon in order to select the climaDc and phenological data ExternalisaDon of the parameters (biological threshols, …) ⇛ The user can select the indicators, the climaDc and phenological data he wants and can modify the parameter values ▫ Graphical results Boxplot for the three climaDc periods NP (Near past: 1970 – 2000) NF (Near future: 2020 – 2050) FF (Far future: 2070 – 2100) ▫ Sta+s+cal analysis Anova + test HSD Tukey to determine the significance differences between the three climaDc periods

2.3. Results in the case of winter wheat

SRES * Régional. * variety

Emergence Beginning of SE Flowering Harvest

A1B * CV * Early PANORAMIX PANORAMIX

A1B * Ano * Early PANORAMIX PANORAMIX

A1B * CV * Late STICS STICS, CERES STICS, CERES STICS, CERES

A1B * Ano * Late STICS STICS, CERES STICS, CERES, PANORAMIX STICS, CERES, PANORAMIX

A2 * CV * Late CERES CERES, PANORAMIX CERES, PANORAMIX

B1 * CV * Late CERES CERES CERES

▫ ClimaDc data: A1B * CV ▫ Phenological data (sown October on 20)

▫ Calculated for the 12 sites, but results presented only at Versailles, Dijon and Toulouse

Evolu+on of the phenology in the context of climate change

àAdvancement of the phenological stages (effect of ↗ of T) Results between the near past (NP) and the distant future (FF)

à Shortening of the phases, especially between emergence and the beginning of SE Results between the near past (NP) and the distant future (FF)

à STICS and CERES don’t calculate the same « beginning of stem elongaDon stage » à  More advancement with the STICS crop model (no negaDve effect of the too high T)

Site Emergence Beginning of SE Flowering Harvest

Toulouse = ◄ 1 to 32 days ◄ 13 to 20 days ◄ 13 to 23 days

Versailles ◄ 2 days ◄ 8 to 24 days ◄ 13 to 20 days ◄ 15 to 20 days

Dijon ◄ 4 days ◄ 9 to 26 days ◄ 9 to 15 days ◄ 15 to 20 days

Site Sowing → Emergence

Emergence → Beginning of SE

Beginning of SE → Flowering


Toulouse = ▼ de ≈ 20 -‐30 jrs = /▲ ou ▼ de ≈ 7 jrs ▼ de ≈ 2-‐4 jrs

Versailles ▼ de ≈ 3 jrs ▼ de ≈ 20 jrs = ou ▲ de ≈ 7 jrs ▼ de ≈ 3-‐4 jrs

Dijon ▼ de ≈ 4 jrs ▼ de ≈ 20 jrs ▲ de ≈ 7 jrs ▼ de ≈ 2-‐3 jrs


Evolu+on of the indicators


Evolu+on of the indicators from the near past (NP) to the far future (FF): overview Ecophysiological process Condi+ons Versailles Condi+ons Toulouse

Development Plant development ▲▲ Emergence -‐Beg SE ▲▲ Emerg-‐Beg SE

VernalisaDon ▲ Emergence -‐ Beg SE = Beg SE-‐Flo ▼ or = Emergence -‐ Flo

Growth Water supply ▼ Especially for Flo-‐Harv ▼▼ Emergence -‐ Beg SE ▼ Beg SE-‐Harvest

DestrucDon/ weakening

Plantlets mortality = =

Leaves mortality ▼ ▼ or =

Flowers mortality = =

Plant mortality ▼ ▼

Lodging,runoff, erosion = ▼ Emergence -‐ Harvest

Yield Grain filling ▼ or = ▼ or =

Quality ▼ ▼

⇛ According to the scenarios and the crop models, some trends are uncertain ⇛ Water supply tends to be more problemaDc

Ecoclima+c indicators analysed

▫ Occ. of unfavorable days for development

▫ Occ. of vernalisant days

▫ Occ. of rainy days ▫ Length of the longest dry period ▫ Water deficit

▫ Occ. severe /very severe frost on plantlets

▫ Occ. severe/very severe frost on leaves

▫ Occ. severe/very severe frost on flowers

▫ Start and length of the frost period ▫ Number of frost spells

▫ Occ. of heavy /very heavy rain ▫ Part of heavy and very heavy rainfall

▫ Occ. of heatshock days ▫ Number of heatshock spells

▫ Occ. of warm nights


Dijon Toulouse Versailles

Water deficit (mm) between emergence and the beginning of stem elonga+on(STICS*A1B*Ano, late culDvar)

NP (Near past: 1970 – 2000) NF (Near future: 2020 – 2050) FF (Far future: 2070 – 2100)

NP NP NP NF NF NF FF FF FF

Evolu+on of the indicators: some graphical examples


a a a a a a a

b b

NP (Near past: 1970 – 2000) NF (Near future: 2020 – 2050) FF (Far future: 2070 – 2100)

2.3. Results in the case of winter wheat Evolu+on of the indicators: some graphical examples

Occurrence (%) of heatshock days at Versailles (A1B * Ano, late culDvar)

PANORAMIX STICS CERES

NP NP NP NF NF NF FF FF FF

⇛ Not signifiance in the far future with STICS

a a b

a a b

ab a b

3. Conclusions

▫ Methodology: Link between indicators and ecophysiological processes à SelecDon of a range of ecoclimaDc indicators ▫ Remains to be done:

-‐ to calculate indicators using a water balance in order to have a be�er analysis of the evoluDon of the water supply -‐ to develop the same methodology for summer crops -‐ to develop the indicators which allow to describe the feasibility of crop intervenDons (around stages)

▫ Paper dra�ing:

-‐ proposal of ecoclimaDc indicators to characterize the feasibility of winter wheat and maize crops -‐ analysis in the context of climate change (with consideraDon of uncertainDes)

▫ R source: soon available on the ORACLE website ▫ EcoclimaDc indicators for bioDc stresses? ▫ Inversion des paramètres pour opDmiser la conduite culturale?

TACHE’2’ ’Développementd ... - oracle.lsce.ipsl.fr Calculaon ’of’the’indicators’...

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