Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon MC252€¦ · 30/06/2010 · Bay St Louis...
1
h Bay St Louis Gulfport Pascagoula Mobile Pensacola Freeport Milton St. Andrew Apalachi Venice Atchafalaya Bay Barataria Bay Breton Sound Chandeleur Sound Terrebonne Bay Vermilion Bay White Lake Calcasieu Lake Grand Lake Caillou Bay 85°0'0"W 85°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 93°0'0"W 93°0'0"W 32°0'0"N 32°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 23°0'0"N 23°0'0"N h Bay St Louis Gulfport Pascagoula Mobile Pensacola Freeport Milton St. Andrew Apalachi Venice Atchafalaya Bay Barataria Bay Breton Sound Chandeleur Sound Terrebonne Bay Vermilion Bay White Lake Calcasieu Lake Grand Lake Caillou Bay 85°0'0"W 85°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 93°0'0"W 93°0'0"W 32°0'0"N 32°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 23°0'0"N 23°0'0"N Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon MC252 Uncertainty Light Medium Heavy Trajectory Potential beached oil X This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Wednesday, June 30 PM. Currents were obtained from several models (NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Tuesday-Wednesday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and Wednesday overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents. Forecast location for oil on 1-July-10 at 1200 CDT Next Forecast: July 1st PM Mississippi Canyon 252 Incident Location Winds are forecast to continue to have an onshore (SE/S) component through next week, with speeds decreasing from approximately 20 kts Wednesday to 11–14 kts by Saturday. These strong onshore winds will continue to move the northern edge of the slick northwest threatening the barrier islands of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west of Freeport, FL. The Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound and the Mississippi Delta also continue to be threatened by shoreline contacts. To the west of the Delta, these winds may bring oil ashore between Barataria Bay and Caillou Bay – any remaining floating oil may be moved quickly to the west due to the development of a strong westward coastal current in this region. 0 50 100 25 Miles The offshore forecast has been temporarily stopped due to small amounts of oil offshore, the absence of recent observations confirming significant amounts of oil in offshore areas, and the large separation between the loop current complex and the oil slick. Forecasts will resume if the threat returns. Nearshore Estimate for: 1200 CDT, Thursday, 7/01/10 Date Prepared: 2100 CDT, Wednesday, 6/30/10 NOAA/NOS/OR&R
Transcript of Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon MC252€¦ · 30/06/2010 · Bay St Louis...
h
Bay St LouisGulfportPascagoula
MobilePensacola Freeport
Milton
St. Andrew
Apalachi
VeniceAtchafalaya
BayBarataria
Bay
BretonSound
ChandeleurSound
TerrebonneBay
VermilionBayWhite
Lake
CalcasieuLake
GrandLake
CaillouBay
85°0'0"W
85°0'0"W
86°0'0"W
86°0'0"W
87°0'0"W
87°0'0"W
88°0'0"W
88°0'0"W
89°0'0"W
89°0'0"W
90°0'0"W
90°0'0"W
91°0'0"W
91°0'0"W
92°0'0"W
92°0'0"W
93°0'0"W
93°0'0"W
32°0'0"N 32°0'0"N
31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N
30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N
29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N
28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N
27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N
26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N
25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N
24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N
23°0'0"N 23°0'0"N
h
Bay St LouisGulfportPascagoula
MobilePensacola Freeport
Milton
St. Andrew
Apalachi
VeniceAtchafalaya
BayBarataria
Bay
BretonSound
ChandeleurSound
TerrebonneBay
VermilionBayWhite
Lake
CalcasieuLake
GrandLake
CaillouBay
85°0'0"W
85°0'0"W
86°0'0"W
86°0'0"W
87°0'0"W
87°0'0"W
88°0'0"W
88°0'0"W
89°0'0"W
89°0'0"W
90°0'0"W
90°0'0"W
91°0'0"W
91°0'0"W
92°0'0"W
92°0'0"W
93°0'0"W
93°0'0"W
32°0'0"N 32°0'0"N
31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N
30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N
29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N
28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N
27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N
26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N
25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N
24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N
23°0'0"N 23°0'0"N
NearshoreSurface Oil Forecast
Deepwater Horizon MC252
UncertaintyLightMediumHeavy
Trajectory
Potentialbeached oilX
This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Wednesday, June 30 PM. Currents were obtained from several models(NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model wasinitialized from Tuesday-Wednesday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and Wednesday overflight observations.The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the modelinitialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.
Forecast location for oilon 1-July-10 at 1200 CDT
Next Forecast:July 1st PM
Mississippi Canyon 252Incident Location
Winds are forecast to continue to have an onshore (SE/S) component through next week, withspeeds decreasing from approximately 20 kts Wednesday to 11–14 kts by Saturday. These strongonshore winds will continue to move the northern edge of the slick northwest threatening the barrierislands of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west of Freeport, FL. The ChandeleurIslands, Breton Sound and the Mississippi Delta also continue to be threatened by shorelinecontacts. To the west of the Delta, these winds may bring oil ashore between Barataria Bay andCaillou Bay – any remaining floating oil may be moved quickly to the west due to the developmentof a strong westward coastal current in this region.
0 50 10025
Miles
The offshore forecast has been temporarily stopped due to smallamounts of oil offshore, the absence of recent observationsconfirming significant amounts of oil in offshore areas, and thelarge separation between the loop current complex and the oilslick. Forecasts will resume if the threat returns.
Nearshore
Estimate for: 1200 CDT, Thursday, 7/01/10Date Prepared: 2100 CDT, Wednesday, 6/30/10
NOAA/NOS/OR&R
