Rapport final

Auteurs :Diane BouchacourtFlorent Renucci

Responsables :M. Theodoros Evgeniou, INSEADM. Nicolas Vayatis, CMLA, ECP

28 mars 2013

Table des matières

Remerciements 2

Introduction 3

1 Cadre et problématique 4

1.1 Le Web 2.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.2 Conséquences sur le e-business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.3 Le cas du portail étudié . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2 Pré-traitement des données 7

2.1 Données et premier traitement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2.2 Correction et complétion des données . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

3 Les résultats de séries temporelles utilisés 10

3.1 Utilisation des modèles VAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

4 Résultats obtenus 13

4.1 Choix du lag et stationnarité . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

4.2 Modèle VAR et IRF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

4.3 Interprétation des résultats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

4.4 Ordre des variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

4.5 Conclusion et Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Conclusion 20

5 Annexes 22

5.1 Annexe 1 : code du premier traitement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

5.2 Annexe 2 : code de complétion des données . . . . . . . . . . 27

5.3 Annexe 3 : code traitement VAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

5.4 Annexe 4 : Résultats de l’IRF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

5.5 Annexe 5 : Ensemble des ordres retenus . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

5.6 Annexe 5 : Ensemble des graphes obtenus . . . . . . . . . . . 89

6 Bibliographie 96

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Remerciements

Nous tenons à remercier notre encadrant à l’INSEAD, Mr. TheodorosEvgeniou, ainsi que Kaifu Zhang, Padmanabhan Paddy et Inyoung Chaepour leur aide et leur enseignement sur ce sujet. Nous remercions aussi notreencadrant à l’Ecole Centrale Paris, Mr. Nicolas Vayatis, pour son temps etses conseils.

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Introduction

L’évolution vers le web 2.0 pousse les e-commerçants à repenser leurbusiness model : d’un contenu purement informationnel, on passe à uneinformation échangée de manière bilatérale, le prospect devient aussi acteur.

Ceci pose la question de l’arbitrage entre les 2 types de contenus d’un sitede e-commerce :- le contenu généré par les utilisateurs ou User Generated Content (UGC),- et le contenu éditorial ou Professional Generated Content (PGC).

L’un amène du trafic mais vend peu, l’autre vend beaucoup mais amènepeu de trafic. Or le revenu total est le produit du nombre de visiteurs parle panier moyen. La modélisation des flux entre ces 2 types de contenuspermet de mieux comprendre leur dynamique, en gardant pour objectif demaximiser au final la fonction profit.

C’est le sujet du séminaire que nous effectuons depuis Octobre 2012 ausein d’une équipe de l’INSEAD composée du Prof. Theodoros Evgeniou etde deux étudiants en thèse, Inyoung Chae et Kaifu Zhang.

Ici les "ventes" sont en fait l’affichage d’une publicité que le site fac-ture à ses sociétés clientes. L’acquisition d’un client est son inscription surle site. La majorité du trafic sur le site se situe sur les sections UGC, alorsque la publicité en ligne est facturée principalement sur les sections PGC.C’est donc un excellent exemple à étudier pour résoudre la problématiqueprésentée.

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1 Cadre et problématique

1.1 Le Web 2.0

L’évolution naturelle du web vers le web 2.0 conduit à un réseauinteractif : l’internaute devient contributeur. L’échange d’informationdevient bilatéral, non seulement entre le visiteur et la page, mais aussi entrevisiteurs. L’internaute devient donc, grâce aux outils mis à sa disposition,une personne active sur la toile. Les 10 sites les plus visités au monde surinternet sont purement collaboratifs ou ont une partie collaborative, donccette évolution est rapide et très importante.

Or un commerce classique adopte généralement l’ancien schéma : l’in-formation est partagée au prospect par le commerçant, et le prospect estrarement acteur dans le business model du commerce. Nous nous intéressonsici à la partie publicité de la communication prospect-commerçant.

Donc les sites commerçants ont dû rapidement adaptés à cette nou-velle tendance, grâce notamment aux forums, blogs, ou avis d’acheteurs.L’étude consiste donc à modéliser le revenu potentiel d’un site commerçanten fonction de son trafic sur les deux types de pages, contributif ouinformatif, en utilisant des outils de séries temporelles.

1.2 Conséquences sur le e-business

Le Business Model d’un site commerçant est profondément modifié parcette évolution. Le site doit arbitrer entre 2 types de contenus :

– le contenu collaboratif : User Generated Content (UGC)– le contenu informationnel ou transactionnel : Professional Generated

Content (PGC).

Pour qu’un site commerçant augmente ses revenus, en augmentant parexemple le nombre de clics sur les publicités qu’il comporte, il dispose de2 leviers, il peut :

– augmenter son trafic i.e. le nombre d’internautes qui viennent sur sespages,

– augmenter la propension à cliquer sur les publicités des internautesdéjà présents.

Ainsi, organiser une partie UGC, sous la forme de blogs, forums etc.adresse le premier levier. Rédiger du contenu à visée transactionnelle ouinformer sur des produits (contenu PGC) adresse le second levier : le tauxde clic sur les publicités est plus important sur les pages de PGC que sur les

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pages de UGC.

Il est indispensable de ne pas se focaliser sur un des deux leviers seule-ment :

– un site qui se concentre sur l’UGC gagne peu d’argent par visiteur,mais a de nombreux visiteurs.

– un site qui se concentre sur le PGC gagne beaucoup d’argent parvisiteur, mais a peu de visiteurs.

Il est donc nécessaire de trouver un équilibre entre le nombre de pagescontenant de l’UGC, le nombre de pages contenant du PGC, et de trouverquels types d’UGC sont les plus efficaces, c’est à dire quels sont ceux quipermettent de maximiser la fonction profit.

1.3 Le cas du portail étudié

Le site vend de l’espace publicitaire en ligne. L’espace publicitaire estplus cher sur les pages PGC car le contenu des pages UGC n’étant pasmodéré en temps réel, les entreprises sont peu enclines à mettre leur pu-blicité sur ces pages. Mais la majorité du trafic est sur les pages UGC du site.

Le portail a alors posé à l’équipe du Prof. Evgeniou les questions sui-vantes :

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– Comment augmenter le trafic vers les sections PGC? Peut on utiliserles pages UGC?

– La plupart des visiteurs font leur premier clic sur une page UGC et nevont jamais sur une page PGC : comment faire en sorte qu’un "firsttime" visiteur d’une page UGC aille durant la même visite sur unepage PGC?

– Comment les pages UGC affectent l’acquisition et la rétention denouveaux clients ?

Dans le cas du portail étudié, les clients sont les utilisateurs inscrits surle site et l’acquisition d’un client est son inscription sur le site. Ces clientshabituels sont ensuite la cible des publicités du site.

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2 Pré-traitement des données

Pour répondre aux questions précédentes, notre équipe dispose de don-nées sur le trafic et l’évolution du contenu des sections UGC et PGC.

2.1 Données et premier traitement

Les données brutes (raw data) proviennent des cookies du site. Ellesdatent de fin 2010. Très succinctement, elles permettent de savoir, pourchaque visiteur :− la page qu’il a consultée,− l’heure (donc le temps qu’il est resté sur la page),− et ses actions (s’il a posté une réponse à un forum, un billet sur son

blog etc.).

Donc chaque utilisateur qui change de page, ou rafraîchit sa page, crée unenouvelle ligne dans la table de données. Les données d’observation couvrentune plage de 73 jours. Elles représentaient donc plus de 20Go.

La première étape a consisté à traiter ces données, pour en extraire desvariables agrégées par jour. Le langage utilisé a été STATA pour simplifierl’étude des séries temporelles à l’étape suivante (le langage fournit des outilstrès puissants). Les variables finales sont les suivantes :

1. nombre de vues totales par jour

2. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages éditoriales par jour

3. nombre de visites sur les pages éditoriales par jour

4. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages blog par jour

5. nombre de visites sur les pages blog par jour

6. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages album (posts de photos) par jour

7. nombre de visites sur les pages album (posts de photos) par jour

8. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages forum par jour

9. nombre de visites sur les pages forum par jour

10. nombre de création de fil de discussion dans un forum par jour

11. nombre de réponse à un fil de discussion dans un forum par jour

12. nombre de posts sur les pages blog par jour

13. nombre de posts de photos sur les pages par jour

Il a fallu :− couper les données (en environ 6000 fichiers), car le logiciel n’est pas

capable de traiter des fichiers aussi volumineux,

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− traiter chaque fichier découpé en comptant le nombre d’observationsde chaque variable agrégée,

− recoller les résultats concernant chaque fichier en sommant lesobservations.

Le code est en annexe.

2.2 Correction et complétion des données

Une fois ce traitement terminé, les données se sont avérées incomplètes. Ilmanquait de nombreuses observations concernant les actions des utilisateurs(les 3 derniers types de variables du II.1). Après contact avec l’entreprise,Theodoros nous a fourni des données supplémentaires, sous formes de 3 fi-chiers "rextract", chacun fournissant des informations sur les parties forum,blog et album. Mais nous n’avions aucun moyen de savoir si certaines ob-servations étaient déjà présentes dans les données brutes de départ, doncnous ne pouvions pas simplement concaténer les nouveaux fichiers avec lesanciens. Nous avons donc écrit un premier algorithme qui vérifie si des ob-servations sont communes aux données initiales (raw data) et aux nouveauxfichiers (rextract).

Voici son fonctionnement en pseudo-code :

− on découpe les fichiers initiaux en "plus gros morceaux"− pour chaque jour k· on parcourt toutes les données brutes initiales, on conserve cellescorrespondant au jour k· on parcourt tous les rextracts (les fichiers de complétion), on vérifiesi les observations qu’ils contiennent ne sont pas déjà présentes, encomparant l’heure, l’identification de l’utilisateur et l’identificationde la page· si elles ne le sont pas, on complète la base de données· on sauvegarde les données relatives au jour k, complètes

− pour chaque jour k on compte le nombre d’observations pour toutesles variables agrégées

− on somme sur tous les jours.

De nombreux ajustements ont dû être effectués pour que ce codefonctionne. Par exemple, certaines observations sont précises à la seconde,d’autres à la minute, donc beaucoup d’observations sont techniquementidentiques, mais différentes en apparence (puisque l’heure semble différente).

L’étape de traitement des données est cruciale, car le type d’inatten-tion donnée en exemple fournit des résultats aberrants durant l’étude, et ilest assez difficile d’en trouver l’origine. Nous avons donc testé la cohérence

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des résultats après chaque modification, et de nombreuses reprises du codeont été nécessaires. A nouveau, le code est en annexe. On ne fournit quele code pour la section forum, celui pour les sections blog et album estsimilaire.

En résumé, on s’intéressera aux relations entre les 12 variables de 2 à13 afin de répondre aux questions posées par l’entreprise, observées sur 72jours : du 05 Octobre au 16 Décembre, le 73ème jour ayant été abandonnépar manque d’informations.

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3 Les résultats de séries temporelles utilisés

Pour répondre aux questions posés par l’entreprise, il nous faut quantifierl’influence des sections UGC sur les sections PGC. Nous devons par exemplela façons dont une augmentation du trafic ou du contenu des sections UGCimpacte le trafic des sections UGC et PGC du site. Pour cela, les modèlesVAR (Vectors Auto-Regressive) et les IRF (Impulse Response Functions)sont les outils adéquats. Grossièrement, un vecteur auto-régressif est un vec-teur de l’ensemble des features, que l’on régresse à partir des observations dece même vecteur, à des temps antérieurs (t-1, t-2. . . , t-k), et les IRF sont deschocs appliqués à chaque feature en un temps antérieur, en vue d’observerl’évolution des autres.

3.1 Utilisation des modèles VAR

Par souci de clarté, on se place en dimension 2. Tous les arguments segénéralisent sans problème à la dimension n (dans notre cas, n = 12).

Hypothèses

− Les variables à expliquer sont les yt et zt.− On prend un lag de 1. Le lag est à choisir selon différents critères de

sélection de modèles (BIC, Akaike,...).− εt est un bruit.

Méthode

On écrit le vecteur des variables à expliquer comme transformation li-néaire de ses états antérieurs, ici en fonction de t − 1 seulement, puisque lelag est de 1. On expliquera ce choix dans la partie suivante. On ajoute unbruit aléatoire. On associe un choc à chacune des variables, pour observerl’évolution des autres. Ces chocs s’appellent les fonctions IRF.

On part du modèle suivant :(1 b12b21 1

)(ytzt

)=

(b10b20

)+

(c11 c12c21 c22

)(yt−1zt−1

)+

(eytezt

)Que l’on réécrit : BXt = Γ0 + Γ1Xt−1 + εt

C’est le modèle Structural VAR (SVAR), on remarque qu’il y a 10 para-mètres à ajuster : 8 variables, et les variances des e (eyt et ezt sont décoréllés).

On peut reformuler ce modèle en inversant B, c’est généralementpossible. On obtient :

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(ytzt

)=

(a10a20

)+

(a11 a12a21 a22

)(yt−1zt−1

)+

(εytεzt

)C’est à dire : Xt = A0 +A1Xt−1 + et

Ce modèle est le VAR en forme standard, dont 9 paramètres sont à ajuster(6 variables, les variances des e et la covariance Cov(εyt, εzt)).

Le modèle SVAR présente une inconnue de plus par rapport au modèleVAR. Il nous faudra donc ajouter des contraintes sur les matrices (des zéros)afin de pouvoir résoudre le modèle SVAR. En pratique on fera l’hypothèseque l’une des variable n’influence pas l’autre.(

εytεzt

)=

(b11 b120 b22

)(eytezt

)ou plus généralement, si la matrice est triangulaire inférieure. C’est à diresi y n’a pas d’effet instantané sur z.

Le processus a aussi une représentation MA(∞), c’est le modèle VMA(Vector Moving Average) :

(ytzt

)=

(ytzt

)+

∞∑i=0

(φ(i)11 φ

(i)12

φ(i)21 φ

(i)22

)i(εy,t−iεz,t−i

)= X +

∞∑i=0

Φiεt−i

Une fois notre modèle VAR posé, on va chercher à faire l’étude de l’in-fluence d’un choc dans une variable sur les autres variables. C’est l’analyseimpulsionnelle : on cherche à obtenir les Impulse Response Functions (IRF).

Reprenons le modèle VMA :(ytzt

)= X +

∞∑i=0

Φiεt−i

L’étude des chocs se fera ainsi :

dytdεz,t

= φ12(0), dztdεz,t

= φ22(0), dyt+1

dεz,t= φ12(1), zyt+1

dεz,t= φ22(1)

et en décalant d’une période : dytdεz,t−1

= φ12(1) etc.

Ces φ donnent d’ailleurs l’erreur de forecast :xt+1 = X + Φ0εt+1 + Φ1εt−1 + ... Ext+1 = X + Φ1εt + Φ2εt−1 + ...

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donc l’erreur au temps t+ 1 est :xt+1 − Etxt+1 = Φ0εt+1

et il en est de même pour les temps suivants :xt+n − Ext+n = Φ0εt+n + Φ1εt+n−1 + Φ2εt+n−2 + ...+ Φn−1εt+1

donc sur chacune des variables :yt+n − Eyt+n = φ11,0εy,t+n + φ11,1εy,t+n−1...φ11,n−1εy,t+1 + φ21,0εz,t+n +φ21,1εz,t+n−1...φ21,n−1εz,t+1

et finalement :σ2y,n = σ2y(φ

211,0 + φ211,1 + ...+ φ211,n−1)︸ ︷︷ ︸

proportion à la variance du choc de la variable

+σ2z(φ221,0 + φ221,1 + ...+ φ221,n−1)︸ ︷︷ ︸

proportion à la variance du choc dans z

Le terme qui représenta la proportion de la variance due au choc eny diminue avec le temps alors que le terme dû au choc en z augmente. Siδσ2

y,n

σ2z' 0 i.e. εz n’explique pas l’erreur sur y, alors y est exogène. Si elle

l’explique beaucoup (proche de 1), alors y est endogène. L’idée est que :si z peut faire absolument n’importe quoi (variance élevée) sans que çan’influence y, alors y n’est pas "dans" le modèle.

Pour l’étude des IRF, on va cependant chercher à obtenir les conséquencesd’un choc sur une variable de manière isolée. Or si la matrice Σ = E[εy,tεz,t]de variance covariance des résidus n’est pas diagonale, un choc sur εy,t seraaccompagné d’un choc sur εz,t. La décomposition de Cholesky de la matriceΣ symétrique donne Σ = PP ′ où P est une matrice triangulaire supérieureavec ses éléments diagonaux positifs. Ainsi le VMA se ré-écrit :

(ytzt

)= X +

∞∑i=0

Φiεt−i = X +∞∑i=0

ΦiPP−1εt−i = X +

∞∑i=0

Θiut−i

avec Θi = ΦiP et ut−i = P−1εt−i. Les ut−i ont maintenant une matricede variance covariance égale à l’identité. Les colonnes de Θi représenterontla réponse du système par rapport à un choc indépendant et normalisé surl’innovation d’une variable après i périodes.

Dans notre cas le logiciel Stata nous permet de faire l’étude des IRFstrès facilement une fois le modèle VAR posé. Mais pour cela il faut bienpréciser l’ordre des variables dans la décomposition de Cholesky qu’effectuerale logiciel. Deux ordres des variables différents peuvent a priori donner desrésultats différents pour les IRFs. C’est l’objet de la partie suivante.

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4 Résultats obtenus

Pour mémoire, notre modèle VAR comporte 12 variables observées sur 72jours, du 05 Octobre 2010 au 16 Décembre 2010, la 1ère variable est déduite :

1. nombre de vues totales par jour2. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages éditoriales par jour3. nombre de visites sur les pages éditoriales par jour4. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages blog par jour5. nombre de visites sur les pages blog par jour6. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages album (posts de photos) par jour7. nombre de visites sur les pages album (posts de photos) par jour8. nombre de visiteurs sur les pages forum par jour9. nombre de visites sur les pages forum par jour10. nombre de création de fil de discussion dans un forum par jour11. nombre de réponse à un fil de discussion dans un forum par jour12. nombre de posts sur les pages blog par jour13. nombre de posts de photos sur les pages par jour

On travaille dans la suite avec les log des variables.

4.1 Choix du lag et stationnarité

Nous avons choisi d’utiliser le critère BIC pour choisir le lag de notremodèle. La commande varsoc sur Stata permet d’évaluer le critère BIC surplusieurs lag possibles. Cela nous a donné le résultat suivant :

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Nous avons donc choisi un lag de 1 en suivant le critère BIC. On auraitpu hésiter avec un lag de 4 qui était recommandé par les autres critères, maisde manière classique en marketing statistique les chercheurs ont tendance àprivilégier le lag le plus faible.

Les variables doivent être stationnaires afin de pouvoir tirer des conclusionsd’une régression. Nous avons testé la stationnarité des variables avec unlag de 1 grâce à la commande dfuller de Stata qui permet de soumettreles variables au test de Dickey-Fuller. Les 12 variables sont stationnairesavec un lag de 1 pour une p-value inférieure à 5%, sauf pour le nombre devisites de la section album pour laquelle la p-value est à 12%, mais nousl’acceptons quand même. Ceci est principalement dû au fait que les variablesprésentent 2 périodes : une de 7 jours, hebdomadaire, et une de plusieursmois, saisonnière. Notre échelle de temps trop courte nous empêche decapturer l’information saisonnière, autrement dit notre modèle ne permetpas d’expliquer l’aberration des données du dernier jour, qui représenteune chute saisonnière. Cette observation a été possible grâce à l’étude dedonnées similaires, sur lesquelles a déjà travaillé une équipe de Theodoros,mais que nous ne pouvons pas exploiter dans notre projet.

4.2 Modèle VAR et IRF

En suivant le modèle VAR présenté précédemment, nous avons dû choisirl’ordre des variables pour la décomposition de Cholesky de la matrice Σ.Pour cela nous avons pensé à une première technique "intuitive". Nous avonsétudié l’influence d’un choc dans les innovations ε de chaque variable sur lesautres variables en normalisant chaque ligne de la matrice Σ. Cela donne lerésultat suivant :

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De cette matrice, nous avons pu tirer des conclusions sur les variablesles plus influentes (au sens de l’étude IRF). Elles correspondent aux lignesles plus "rouges" de la matrice normalisée. Nous avons ensuite tester lesordres ordre1 : "des variables les plus influentes vers les variables les moinsinfluentes" et les ordre 2 et 3 reprennent une organisation : "des variablesles moins influentes vers les variables les plus influentes".

ordre1 : log_forumvisitors log_blogvisitors log_forumviews log_blogviewslog_albumvisitors log_albumviews log_editovisitors log_editoviewslog_forumposts log_forumthreads log_albumpost log_blogpost

ordre2 : log_blogpost log_albumpost log_forumthreads log_forumpostslog_editoviews log_editovisitors log_albumviews log_albumvisitorslog_blogviews log_forumviews log_blogvisitors log_forumvisitors

ordre3 : log_blogpost log_albumpost log_forumthreads log_forumpostslog_editoviews log_albumviews log_editovisitors log_albumvisitorslog_blogviews log_blogvisitors log_forumviews log_forumvisitors

Les trois ordres donnent des résultats semblables, mais avec de meilleursintervalles de confiance et des résultats plus logiques pour l’ordre 3. Nousallons donc présenter dans la suite les résultats de l’ordre 3. En utilisant lesfonctionnalités des IRF de Stata, nous pouvons obtenir une projection desconséquences d’un choc sur l’une des variables sur une ou plusieurs autresvariables. La période de projection (7 jours) a été choisie en observant quesous 7 jours on captait la majorité de l’effet du choc (ensuite, l’IRF tombeà zéro). Par exemple, un choc sur le nombre de nouveaux posts dans la

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section forum aura pour conséquence sur le nombre de vues des sectionsedito, sur 7 jours, la forme suivante :

4.3 Interprétation des résultats

Les résultats de l’analyse IRF sont en annexes. Nous souhaitons tirer desconclusions d’après ces tableaux afin de répondre aux questions posées parle client. Dans cette optique, nous nous intéressons en particulier à l’effetdes sections UGC (album, blog et forum) sur les sections PGC (edito). Uneremarque importante est que au-delà de 2-3 jours les intervalles de confianceà 95% explosent et les résultats ne sont plus exploitables. Nous commenteronsce point plus tard. En ne regardant que les projections sur 2 jours, on peutnoter que :− Une augmentation des posts sur la section forum a un impact positif

sur le trafic (nombre de visiteurs et de vues) des sections forum maisaussi des sections edito. Les posts sur les sections blog et album ontun impact très faible (autour de 5% l’impact des posts sur la sectionforum) sur le trafic des sections edito.

− Une augmentation du nombre de post dans chacune des 3 sectionsUGC augmente le nombre de posts dans la même section. La créationde contenu entraîne plus de création du contenu du même type. Demême, une augmentation du nombre de post de la section forum aug-mente le nombre de posts sur les sections blog et album. En revanche,des augmentations du nombre de posts sur les sections blog et albumn’ont pas d’impact important sur la section forum.

− Le nombre de vues sur la section forum impacte positivement le traficdes sections edito. Etonnamment, au contraire le nombre de visiteurssur la section forum impacte négativement le trafic des sections edito.Le trafic sur la section album impacte positivement le trafic des

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sections edito et le trafic sur la section blog impacte négativement letrafic des sections edito.

Ces résultats sont encourageants puisqu’il semble que le trafic et le contenudes sections UGC comme les sections forum et album peuvent avoir un im-pact bénéfique sur les sections PGC.

4.4 Ordre des variables

Parmi les stratégies possibles d’amélioration, nous avons vu que l’ordredes variables est important lors de l’étude des IRF. Il n’existe cependantpas de "prior" nous permettant de hiérarchiser les qualités des résultatspar ordre de variables. Avec 12 variables, il y a 12 ! ordres possibles, et 10graphiques par ordre, donc plus de 5 ∗ 109 graphiques en tout. Une étudeexhaustive est donc exclue.L’idée est donc de grouper les variables similaires.

On peut donc penser à un premier type de méthode de groupement :par fonction. En effet, il y a 3 grandes catégories de variables :− les views,− les visitors,− les actions.

On peut donc les ordonner par fonction : par exemple d’abord les views,ensuite les visitors et enfin les actions. Il y a 6 combinaisons possibles defonctions, et plusieurs combinaisons internes à chaque fonction (par exempleforumviews, albumviews puis blogview. . . )On peut aussi les grouper par nature, c’est-à-dire par type de contenu :− les pages forum,− les pages edito,− les pages blog,− les pages album.

Il y a donc 24 combinaisons possibles de natures, et plusieurs combinaisonsinternes à chaque nature (par exemple d’abord les views, ensuite les visitors,enfin les actions).

On réduit donc l’étude à 54 ordres possibles. Pour vérifier que notreétude est consistante relativement à tous ces ordres, on vérifie que le signed’un effet d’un choc sur une variable est le même d’un ordre à l’autre. Parexemple en choisissant l’ordre 1, si un choc sur la variable forumviews a unimpact positif sur la variable editovisitors, il faut que l’ordre 2 fournissela même conclusion. Le temps de calcul rend l’étude de tous les liens sur

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tous les ordres de variables inenvisageable. Donc nous avons choisi de neconfirmer qu’un lien, sur tous les ordres possibles : il s’agit de l’impactpositif des albumviews sur les editoviews. Nous générons donc les graphescorrespondant à tous les ordres, avec pour générateur la variable album-views, et nous observons les évolutions des autres variables, notamment sicette évolution est positive ou négative, à partir d’un seuil. Il a été confirmépar plusieurs des 54 ordres retenus (sauf pour l’ordre 21, qui donne desrésultats aberrants pour tous les graphes), donc il est certainement vrai,et c’est le principal lien sur lequel nous basons nos recommandations pourl’entreprise (orienter l’évolution du site vers la partie Album, cf partiesuivante). Pour être totalement rigoureux, il faudrait prendre le temps, etavoir une machine capable d’effectuer tous les calculs possibles pour estimertous les impacts sur tous les ordres possibles. Mais d’une part en choisissantquelques ordres au hasard, ils fournissent les mêmes résultats sur tous lesliens, et d’autre part tous les ordres fournissent les mêmes conclusions surle lien entre albumviews et editoviews, il est donc très probable que tous lesordres fournissent les mêmes conclusions.

4.5 Conclusion et Discussion

Croiser ces résultats sur plusieurs ordres nous permet d’obtenir la dyna-mique suivante :

Les flèches vertes représentent les effets positifs, les flèches orangesles effets neutres, et les flèches rouges dénotent d’un effet négatif. Nous

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pouvons donc reformuler l’objectif : il s’agit de trouver la section UGC quiprésente le plus de flèches vertes vers la section PGC. La section à privilégieren priorité est donc la section Album, pour laquelle l’effet est purementpositif. Dans la mesure où l’effet positif des forumposts est équivalent envaleur absolue à l’effet négatif des forumviews/visitors, la section Forum nepermet pas d’augmenter le trafic vers la section PGC (et donc les revenus).Enfin, la section blog a un effet négatif, et nous éloigne donc de notre objectif.

L’étude peut être affinée par le sujet traité sur chacune des sections :il est possible que chaque section présente une forte variabilité suivant lesujet traité. Par exemple, un fil de conversation sur un forum dont le sujetest la maternité peut générer beaucoup de trafic vers le contenu éditorialqu’un fil de conversation traitant d’un sujet différent. Il est donc possiblede décliner toute notre étude sur une nouvelle dimension : le sujet traité.Pour que cette étude soit possible, une quantité de données beaucoup plusimportante aurait été nécessaire, et sur une durée d’au moins un an (car lessujets sont certainement cycliques).

Les revenus sont égaux au trafic sur le PGC multiplié par la valeurmoyenne d’un utilisateur sur le PGC, ajouté au volume sur l’UGC multipliépar la valeur moyenne d’un utilisateur sur l’UGC.L’objectif a été tout au long de l’étude de maximiser les revenus du siteen générant du trafic du contenu UGC vers le contenu PGC. Il est aussienvisageable d’augmenter les revenus en s’appuyant sur le levier de la valeurmoyenne d’un utilisateur sur la partie UGC. Il s’agit donc de la question dela publicité ciblée. Contrairement à son application habituelle, elle s’appuieici sur un contenu dynamique généré par l’utilisateur, d’où la difficulté d’ycalquer les outils habituels.

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Conclusion

L’évolution vers le web 2.0 a profondément modifié le business modeldes e-commerçants. Les liens entre UGC et PGC sont au centre de leursproblématiques. Notre étude proposera une réponse à certaines de cesquestions, notamment en modélisant les liens entre les trafics sur les sectionsUGC et PGC, et en améliorant le taux de transformation, d’UGC peugénérateur de valeur au PGC fortement générateur de valeur. L’objectifest donc l’utilisation d’outils puissants de mathématiques appliquées, pourrépondre à des problématiques business réelles, qui ont potentiellementun fort impact sur l’activité des acteurs de l’industrie de la publicité en ligne.

Les outils en question sont les séries temporelles. La 1ère étape aconsisté en la préparation des données, couplée à la 2nde qui consistait àvérifier leur pertinence (étape sélection et preprocessing). De nombreuxallers-retours ont été effectués entre ces 2 étapes.

L’étape de transformation et de data-mining (3ème étape) a rapide-ment suivi. Lorsque les données sont consistantes, cette étape ne pose pasde problème.

La 4ème étape a été la compréhension des concepts de séries tempo-relles, et la sélection de ceux les plus adaptés à notre étude et aux donnéesdont nous disposons. La 5ème étape (interprétation, évaluation) a consistéen la calibration de la méthode sélectionnée aux données, c’est-à-dire lechoix de l’ordre des variables. C’est évidemment l’étape la plus génératricede valeur, et en l’occurrence c’est certainement la plus courte. Nous sommesdonc, à ce stade, en mesure de répondre aux questions : "quels sont lesliens entre les contenus UGC et PGC, et comment améliorer le taux de

20

transformation de l’UGC vers le PGC, en vue de maximiser les bénéfices ?".

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5 Annexes

5.1 Annexe 1 : code du premier traitement

1 /∗1) Cleaning the data∗/23 //erase data . dta4 set more of f5 c l e a r67 f o r v a l u e s i =1(1) 2000 {8 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/F i l e 1/ ‘ i ’ . csv "9 rename v1 date log

10 rename v2 c s t i d11 rename v3 u s e r i d12 rename v4 pageid13 rename v5 forumid14 rename v6 i s p o s t15 rename v7 i s r e p l y16 rename v8 s i t e i d17 rename v9 i s connec t ed18 rename v10 sous rubr i que id19 rename v11 isa lbumpost20 rename v12 i s b l o gpo s t21 rename v13 ismppost22 rename v14 ed i t o type i d23 rename v15 albumcategoryid24 rename v16 b l ogca t ego ry id25 drop us e r i d26 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )27 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS28 g date=dofc ( time )29 drop date log30 format date %tdNN/DD/CCYY31 order c s t i d date time , f i r s t3233 /∗ de f ined the " other " category without the de f ined category ∗/34 g other=1 i f forumid==. & albumcategoryid==0 & b logca t ego ry id==0

& ed i t o type i d==03536 /∗Creat ing the number o f views for each date∗/37 bysort date c s t i d : egen tota lv i ewper ID=count ( c s t i d )38 l a b e l var tota lv i ewper ID " t o t a l number o f page views per ID"39 by date : egen to ta l v i ew=count ( tota lv i ewper ID )40 l a b e l var t o ta l v i ew " t o t a l number o f page views per day"4142 g temp_edit=1 i f ed i t o type i d !=043 bysort date c s t i d : egen editov iewperID=count ( temp_edit )44 bysort date c s t i d : g ed i t o_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

ed itov iewperID !=045 g ed i t o_v i s i t o r=1 i f ed i t o_v i s i t==146 bysort date : egen e d i t o v i s i t o r=count ( ed i t o_v i s i t o r )

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47 l a b e l var e d i t o v i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in ed i t os e c t i o n "

48 g ed i t o_view=editov iewperID i f ed i t o_v i s i t==149 by date : g ed i tov i ew=sum( ed i t o_view )50 l a b e l var ed i tov i ew " t o t a l number o f views in ed i t o s e c t i o n "51 drop temp_edit ed itov iewperID ed i t o_v i s i t ed i t o_v i s i t o r ed i t o_

view5253 g temp_forum=1 i f forumid !=.54 bysort date c s t i d : egen forumviewperID=count ( temp_forum )55 bysort date c s t i d : g forum_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

forumviewperID !=056 g forum_v i s i t o r=1 i f forum_v i s i t==157 bysort date : egen f o rumv i s i t o r=count ( forum_v i s i t o r )58 l a b e l var f o r umv i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in forum

s e c t i o n "59 g forum_view=forumviewperID i f forum_v i s i t==160 by date : g forumview=sum( forum_view )61 l a b e l var forumview " t o t a l number o f views in forum s e c t i o n "62 drop temp_forum forumviewperID forum_v i s i t forum_v i s i t o r forum_

view6364 g temp_forum_other =1 i f forumid !=. | o ther==165 bysort date c s t i d : egen forumviewperID_other=count ( temp_forum_

other )66 bysort date c s t i d : g forum_v i s i t_other = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

forumviewperID_other !=067 g forum_v i s i t o r_other=1 i f forum_v i s i t_other==168 bysort date : egen f o rumv i s i t o r_other=count ( forum_v i s i t o r_other )69 l a b e l var f o r umv i s i t o r_other " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in forum

s e c t i o n with other "70 g forum_view_other=forumviewperID_other i f forum_v i s i t_other==171 by date : g forumview_other=sum( forum_view_other )72 l a b e l var forumview_other " t o t a l number o f views in forum

s e c t i o n with other "73 drop temp_forum_other forumviewperID_other forum_v i s i t_other

forum_v i s i t o r_other forum_view_other7475 g temp_blog=1 i f b logca t ego ry id !=076 bysort date c s t i d : egen blogviewperID=count ( temp_blog )77 bysort date c s t i d : g blog_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

blogviewperID !=078 g blog_v i s i t o r=1 i f blog_v i s i t==179 bysort date : egen b l o g v i s i t o r=count ( b log_v i s i t o r )80 l a b e l var b l o g v i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in blog s e c t i o n "81 g blog_view=blogviewperID i f blog_v i s i t==182 by date : g blogview=sum( b log_view )83 l a b e l var blogview " t o t a l number o f views in blog s e c t i o n "84 drop temp_blog blogviewperID blog_v i s i t b log_v i s i t o r blog_view8586 g temp_album=1 i f albumcategoryid !=087 bysort date c s t i d : egen albumviewperID=count ( temp_album)88 bysort date c s t i d : g album_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

albumviewperID !=0

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89 g album_v i s i t o r=1 i f album_v i s i t==190 bysort date : egen a lbumv i s i t o r=count ( album_v i s i t o r )91 l a b e l var a lbumv i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in album

s e c t i o n "92 g album_view=albumviewperID i f album_v i s i t==193 by date : g albumview=sum( album_view )94 l a b e l var albumview " t o t a l number o f views in album s e c t i o n "95 drop temp_album albumviewperID album_v i s i t album_v i s i t o r album_

view9697 bysort date : egen photopost=sum( i sa lbumpost )98 l a b e l var photopost " t o t a l number o f post in album s e c t i o n "99 bysort date : egen b logpost=sum( i s b l o gpo s t )

100 l a b e l var photopost " t o t a l number o f post in blog s e c t i o n "101102 g temp_forum_start=1 i f i s p o s t==1103 g temp_forum_r ep ly=1 i f i s r e p l y==1104105 bysort date : egen forumpost=sum( temp_forum_start )106 l a b e l var forumpost " t o t a l number o f new post in forum s e c t i o n "107 bysort date : egen forumthread=sum( temp_forum_r ep ly )108 l a b e l var forumthread " t o t a l number o f r ep ly in forum s e c t i o n "109 drop temp_forum_start temp_forum_r ep ly110111 gen obs=_n112 drop i f date [ obs]==date [ obs+1]113 keep date t o ta l v i ew ed i tov i ew e d i t o v i s i t o r blogview b l o g v i s i t o r

albumview a lbumvi s i t o r photopost b logpost forumpostforumthread forumview f o rumv i s i t o r

114 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /1_‘ i ’ . csv" , comma replace

115 drop _a l l116 }117118 /// F i l e 2119120 f o r v a l u e s i =1(1) 4678 {121 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/F i l e 2/ ‘ i ’ . csv "122 rename v1 date log123 rename v2 c s t i d124 rename v3 u s e r i d125 rename v4 pageid126 rename v5 forumid127 rename v6 i s p o s t128 rename v7 i s r e p l y129 rename v8 s i t e i d130 rename v9 i s connec t ed131 rename v10 sous rubr i que id132 rename v11 isa lbumpost133 rename v12 i s b l o gpo s t134 rename v13 ismppost135 rename v14 ed i t o type i d136 rename v15 albumcategoryid137 rename v16 b l ogca t ego ry id

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138 drop us e r i d139 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )140 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS141 g date=dofc ( time )142 drop date log143 format date %tdNN/DD/CCYY144 order c s t i d date time , f i r s t145146 /∗ de f ined the " other " category without the de f ined category ∗/147 g other=1 i f forumid==. & albumcategoryid==0 & b logca t ego ry id==0

& ed i t o type i d==0148149 /∗Creat ing the number o f views for each date∗/150 bysort date c s t i d : egen tota lv i ewper ID=count ( c s t i d )151 l a b e l var tota lv i ewper ID " t o t a l number o f page views per ID"152 by date : egen to ta l v i ew=count ( tota lv i ewper ID )153 l a b e l var t o ta l v i ew " t o t a l number o f page views per day"154155 g temp_edit=1 i f ed i t o type i d !=0156 bysort date c s t i d : egen editov iewperID=count ( temp_edit )157 bysort date c s t i d : g ed i t o_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

ed itov iewperID !=0158 g ed i t o_v i s i t o r=1 i f ed i t o_v i s i t==1159 bysort date : egen e d i t o v i s i t o r=count ( ed i t o_v i s i t o r )160 l a b e l var e d i t o v i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in ed i t o

s e c t i o n "161 g ed i t o_view=editov iewperID i f ed i t o_v i s i t==1162 by date : g ed i tov i ew=sum( ed i t o_view )163 l a b e l var ed i tov i ew " t o t a l number o f views in ed i t o s e c t i o n "164 drop temp_edit ed itov iewperID ed i t o_v i s i t ed i t o_v i s i t o r ed i t o_

view165166 g temp_forum=1 i f forumid !=. | o ther==1167 bysort date c s t i d : egen forumviewperID=count ( temp_forum )168 bysort date c s t i d : g forum_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

forumviewperID !=0169 g forum_v i s i t o r=1 i f forum_v i s i t==1170 bysort date : egen f o rumv i s i t o r=count ( forum_v i s i t o r )171 l a b e l var f o r umv i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in forum

s e c t i o n "172 g forum_view=forumviewperID i f forum_v i s i t==1173 by date : g forumview=sum( forum_view )174 l a b e l var forumview " t o t a l number o f views in forum s e c t i o n "175 drop temp_forum forumviewperID forum_v i s i t forum_v i s i t o r forum_

view176177 g temp_blog=1 i f b logca t ego ry id !=0178 bysort date c s t i d : egen blogviewperID=count ( temp_blog )179 bysort date c s t i d : g blog_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

blogviewperID !=0180 g blog_v i s i t o r=1 i f blog_v i s i t==1181 bysort date : egen b l o g v i s i t o r=count ( b log_v i s i t o r )182 l a b e l var b l o g v i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in blog s e c t i o n "183 g blog_view=blogviewperID i f blog_v i s i t==1

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184 by date : g blogview=sum( b log_view )185 l a b e l var blogview " t o t a l number o f views in blog s e c t i o n "186 drop temp_blog blogviewperID blog_v i s i t b log_v i s i t o r blog_view187188 g temp_album=1 i f albumcategoryid !=0189 bysort date c s t i d : egen albumviewperID=count ( temp_album)190 bysort date c s t i d : g album_v i s i t = cond (_N==1,1,_n) i f

albumviewperID !=0191 g album_v i s i t o r=1 i f album_v i s i t==1192 bysort date : egen a lbumv i s i t o r=count ( album_v i s i t o r )193 l a b e l var a lbumv i s i t o r " t o t a l number o f v i s i t o r s in album

s e c t i o n "194 g album_view=albumviewperID i f album_v i s i t==1195 by date : g albumview=sum( album_view )196 l a b e l var albumview " t o t a l number o f views in album s e c t i o n "197 drop temp_album albumviewperID album_v i s i t album_v i s i t o r album_

view198199 bysort date : egen photopost=sum( i sa lbumpost )200 l a b e l var photopost " t o t a l number o f post in album s e c t i o n "201 bysort date : egen b logpost=sum( i s b l o gpo s t )202 l a b e l var photopost " t o t a l number o f post in blog s e c t i o n "203204 g temp_forum_start=1 i f i s p o s t==1205 g temp_forum_r ep ly=1 i f i s r e p l y==1206207 bysort date : egen forumpost=sum( temp_forum_start )208 l a b e l var forumpost " t o t a l number o f new post in forum s e c t i o n "209 bysort date : egen forumthread=sum( temp_forum_r ep ly )210 l a b e l var forumthread " t o t a l number o f r ep ly in forum s e c t i o n "211 drop temp_forum_start temp_forum_r ep ly212213 gen obs=_n214 drop i f date [ obs]==date [ obs+1]215 keep date t o ta l v i ew ed i tov i ew e d i t o v i s i t o r blogview b l o g v i s i t o r

albumview a lbumvi s i t o r photopost b logpost forumpostforumthread forumview f o rumv i s i t o r

216 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /2_‘ i ’ . csv" , comma replace

217 drop _a l l218 }219220 /∗2) Loading a l l the done f i l e s and expor t ing them as one big

f i l e ∗/221222 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /2_1 . csv "223 save data , replace224225 f o r v a l u e s i =2(1) 4678 {226 drop _a l l227 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /2_‘ i ’ . csv "228 append us ing data229 save data , replace230 }

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231232 /∗ We now have s e v e r a l ob s e rva t i on s for each day , we need to sum

them∗/233 bysort date : egen to ta l v i ew_day=sum( t o ta l v i ew )234 bysort date : egen e d i t o v i s i t o r_day=sum( e d i t o v i s i t o r )235 bysort date : egen ed i tov i ew_day=sum( ed i tov i ew )236 bysort date : egen b l o g v i s i t o r_day=sum( b l o g v i s i t o r )237 bysort date : egen blogview_day=sum( blogview )238 bysort date : egen a lbumv i s i t o r_day=sum( a lbumv i s i t o r )239 bysort date : egen albumview_day=sum( albumview )240 bysort date : egen b logpost_day=sum( b logpost )241 bysort date : egen photopost_day=sum( photopost )242 bysort date : egen forumpost_day=sum( forumpost )243 bysort date : egen forumthread_day=sum( forumthread )244 bysort date : egen forumview_day=sum( forumview )245 bysort date : egen f o rumv i s i t o r_day=sum( f o rumv i s i t o r )246 bysort date : egen forumview__other_day=sum( forumview_other )247 bysort date : egen f o rumv i s i t o r_other_day=sum( f o rumv i s i t o r_other )248249 gen obs=_n250 drop i f date [ obs]==date [ obs+1]251 keep date t o ta l v i ew_day e d i t o v i s i t o r_day ed i tov i ew_day

b l o g v i s i t o r_day blogview_day a lbumv i s i t o r_day albumview_dayb logpost_day photopost_day forumpost_day forumthread_dayforumview_day f o rumv i s i t o r_day f o rumv i s i t o r_other_dayforumview__other_day

252253 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /datawork .

csv " , comma replace

5.2 Annexe 2 : code de complétion des données

Sort_file_per_date.do

1 /∗Creates one f i l e per date∗/23 f o r v a l u e s i =1(1) 2000 {45 c l e a r67 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Desktop/Seminaire/F i l e 1/

s p l i t_l i g h t_‘ i ’ . csv "8 rename v1 date log9 rename v2 c s t i d

10 rename v3 u s e r i d11 rename v4 pageid12 rename v5 forumid13 rename v6 i s p o s t1415 rename v7 i s r e p l y16 rename v8 s i t e i d17 rename v9 i s connec t ed

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18 rename v10 sous rubr i que id19 rename v11 isa lbumpost20 rename v12 i s b l o gpo s t21 rename v13 ismppost22 rename v14 ed i t o type i d23 rename v15 albumcategoryid24 rename v16 b l ogca t ego ry id25 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )26 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS27 g date=dofc ( time )2829 //we w i l l a l s o need the time in minutes//30 g double time1=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )31 format time1 %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM3233 drop date log34 format date %tdNN/DD/CCYY35 order c s t i d date time time1 , f i r s t3637 sort date38 sort time3940 f o r v a l u e s j =18540(1) 18612 {41 outsheet us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Desktop/Seminaire/ Sp l i t_

l i g h t_so r t ed/date_‘ k ’_s p l i t_l i g h t_‘ i ’ . csv " i f date == date[ 1 ] , replace

42 drop i f date == date [ 1 ]43 }44 }

forum_merge.do

12 set more of f3 c l e a r45 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ do s s i e r/ t e s t s /

rext ract fo rum . csv "67 // format the date89 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )

10 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS11 drop date log12 g date=dofc ( time )13 format date %tdNN/DD/CCYY14 drop time forumid15 order us e r i d date , f i r s t1617 // sum o f the pos t s and the r e p l i e s by day1819 g temp1=1 i f i s p o s t=="True"20 drop i s p o s t21 g temp2=1 i f i s r e p l y=="True"

28

22 drop i s r e p l y23 g i s p o s t=temp124 drop temp125 g i s r e p l y=temp226 drop temp22728 bysort date : g forumpost=sum( i s p o s t )29 bysort date : g forumreply=sum( i s r e p l y )3031 // dropping the in te rmed ia r va lue s3233 drop i f date [_n]==date [_n+1]34 drop i s p o s t i s r e p l y u s e r i d3536 // sav ing3738 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ do s s i e r/ t e s t s /

forum . csv " , comma replace3940 c l e a r4142 // delete a l l the l ines that don ’ t have i s r e p l y or i s p o s t = 1

and save the new f i l e4344 s e t more o f f4546 f o r v a l u e s i =1(1) 2000 {4748 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/F i l e 1/ ‘ i ’ . csv"49 rename v1 date log50 rename v3 u s e r i d51 rename v5 forumid52 rename v6 i s p o s t53 rename v7 i s r e p l y545556 drop v2 v4 v8 v9 v10 v11 v12 v13 v14 v15 v165758 keep i f i s p o s t==1 | i s r e p l y==15960 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /forum ‘ i ’ .

csv " , comma r ep l a c e6162 drop _a l l63 }6465 // merge a l l the f i l e s , to forum_merge . csv6667 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /forum1 . csv

"68 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms")69 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS70 drop date log71 save data , r ep l a c e

29

7273 f o r v a l u e s i =2(1) 1894 {74 drop _a l l75 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ r e s u l t a t /forum ‘ i ’ .

csv"76 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )77 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM: SS78 drop date log79 append us ing data80 save data , r ep l a c e81 }828384 drop _a l l8586 i n sh e e t us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ do s s i e r/ t e s t s /

rext ract fo rum . csv"8788 // r ep l a c e True and Fal se by 0 and 18990 g temp1=1 i f i s p o s t=="True"91 drop i s p o s t92 g temp2=1 i f i s r e p l y=="True"93 drop i s r e p l y94 g i s p o s t=temp195 drop temp196 g i s r e p l y=temp297 drop temp29899 g double time=c lock ( date log , "YMDhms" )

100 format time %tcNN/DD/CCYY_HH:MM101 drop date log102103 append us ing data104 save data , r ep l a c e105106 /∗ we then suppres s the in fo rmat i ons that are pre sent 2 t imes107 drop i f u s e r i d [_n]==use r i d [_n−1] & forumid [_n]==forumid [_n−1] &

time [_n]==time [_n−1] & i s p o s t [_n]== i s p o s t [_n−1] & i s r e p l y [_n]== i s r e p l y [_n−1]

108109 => problem : i f we drop l i n e s , a c t ua l l y we are dropping l i n e s

only from the rextract fo rum . csv . So we mustn ’ t .110 BUT : good news : i t l ook s l i k e the rext ract fo rum and the

s p l i t t e d f i l e s don ’ t over lap (111 s i n c e the number o f dropped l i n e s i s the same i f we don ’ t merge

with the s p l i t t e d f i l e s ) .112 So , we can compute the data about the forum without ca r ing i f we

count some in fo rmat i ons 2 t imes .113114 ∗/115 outsheet us ing "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Desktop/ do s s i e r/ t e s t s /

forum_merge . csv" , comma rep l a c e116

30

117 // checked by hand −> OK ( same number o f l i n e s as DataWork . dowith code un−commented )

5.3 Annexe 3 : code traitement VAR

1 // generate t=date (date , "DMY" )2 //format t %d34 //////////////////// Getting the r e s u l t s ///////////////////5 c l e a r6 set more of f7 use "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s (

Diane and Florent )/Data Resu l t s/Resu l tat_f i n a l . dta"8 t s s e t t , d a i l y9 drop date

1011 set mats ize 1000012 //log us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time

s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/Var_ana l y s i s . l og " ,replace

1314 //Working with l o g s15 fo r each var o f v a r l i s t ∗ {16 gen log_‘var ’=log ( ‘ var ’ )17 }18 drop log_t19 drop in 73202122 //////////////////// PREESTIMATION OF LAG ///////////////////2324 varsoc log_albumpost log_b logpost log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_

ed i tov i ews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_forumpostslog_forumthreads , maxlag (5 )

252627 //////////////////// DF TESTS ///////////////////2829 //ADF t e s t pour log va r i a b l e s30 fo r each var in log_albumpost log_b logpost log_t o t a l v i ews log_

e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_

albumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads {31 d i " ‘ var ’ "32 d f u l l e r ‘var ’ , t rend l a g s (1 )33 }3435 //////////////////// VAR ///////////////////36 var l og_albumpost l og_b logpost l og_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews

log_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_

31

blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads , l a g s (1 )

3738 //////////////////// MATRIX COVARIANCE VARIANCE ANALYSIS ///////

////////////39 //Matrix o f e r r o r var iance and covar iance40 e re turn l i s t41 matrix MatCov=e ( Sigma )4243 //Packages needed44 s s c d mat2txt45 s s c i n s t a l l mat2txt4647 //Normal i sat ion o f the matrix48 mata49 //Get the matrix50 MatCov = s t_matrix ("MatCov")5152 //Get the max value53 maxMat = max(MatCov)5455 //Normalised g l o b a l l y56 MatCovNorm = MatCov/maxMat5758 //Get the max value per row59 maxMatrow = rowmax(MatCov)60 //Normalised by row61 MatCovNormbyVar = J (12 ,12 ,0 )62 f o r ( i =1; i <=12; i++) {63 MatCovNormbyVar [ i , ] = MatCov [ i , ] /maxMatrow [ i ]64 }6566 //Output the matrix in to Stata ( from Mata to Stata )67 s t_matrix ("MatCovNorm" , MatCovNorm)68 s t_matrix ("MatCovNormbyVar" , MatCovNormbyVar)6970 end7172 //Output the matrix in to text f i l e , to be copied in Excel73 mat2txt , matrix (MatCov) sav ing (/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/

s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/MatCovlag1 )

74 mat2txt , matrix (MatCovNorm) sav ing (/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/MatCovNormlag1 )

75 mat2txt , matrix (MatCovNormbyVar) sav ing (/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/MatCovNormbyVarlag1 )

76777879 order l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts

l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s

32

l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s80 i r f s e t "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s (

Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/IRFLg1 . i r f "8182 ///////////// ORDER 1 //////////////////83 // i r f c r e a t e order1step1 , s tep (1 ) order ( l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_

b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpost l og_b logpost )

84 // i r f c r e a t e order1step5 , s tep (5 ) order ( l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpost l og_b logpost )

85 // i r f c r e a t e order1step8 , s tep (8 ) order ( l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpost l og_b logpost )

86 // i r f c r e a t e order1step15 , s tep (15) order ( l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpost l og_b logpost )

87 i r f c r e a t e order1step10 , s tep (10) order ( l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpost l og_b logpost )

8889 ///////////// ORDER 2 //////////////////90 // i r f c r e a t e order2step1 , s tep (1 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_

albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

91 // i r f c r e a t e order2step5 , s tep (5 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

92 // i r f c r e a t e order2step8 , s tep (8 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

93 // i r f c r e a t e order2step15 , s tep (15) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

94 i r f c r e a t e order2step10 , s tep (10) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

9596 ///////////// ORDER 3 //////////////////97 // i r f c r e a t e order4step8 , s tep (8 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_

albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

33

98 // i r f c r e a t e order4step15 , s tep (15) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

99 i r f c r e a t e order3step10 , s tep (10) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

100101 //order2 :102 // l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og

_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r sl og_f o r umv i s i t o r s

103104 //order1 :105 // l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_

blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r sl og_ed i tov i ews log_forumposts l og_forumthreads l og_albumpostl og_b logpost

106107 //order abandonne :108 // l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_albumpost l og_b logpost l og

_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s l og_forumviews

109110 //order 3111 // l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og

_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviewslog_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

112113 ///////////////////// IRF STUDY ///////////////////114115 i r f c r e a t e order3step7 , s tep (7 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost

l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

116117 i r f graph i r f , i r f ( o rder3s tep7 ) impulse ( l og_forumposts ) re sponse

( l og_ed i tov i ews )118119 log us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s

( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/ IRFAnalysis . l og " , r ep l a c e120121 fo r each var1 o f v a r l i s t l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_

forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s {

122 fo r each var2 o f v a r l i s t l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_albumviewslog_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s {

34

123 i r f t ab l e i r f , i r f ( o rder3s t ep7 ) impulse ( ‘ var1 ’ ) response ( ‘ var2’ ) t i t l e (" ‘ var1 ’−>‘var2 ’ ")

124 }125 }126127 log c l o s e128129 i r f c r e a t e order2step7 , s tep (7 ) order ( l og_b logpost l og_albumpost

l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iewslog_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s )

130131 log us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s

( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/ IRFAnalysis2 . l og " , r ep l a c e132133 fo r each var1 o f v a r l i s t l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_

forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r sl og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_forumviewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s {

134 fo r each var2 o f v a r l i s t l og_b logpost l og_albumpost l og_forumthreads l og_forumposts l og_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s l og_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s l og_blogv iews log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s l og_f o r umv i s i t o r s{

135 i r f t ab l e i r f , i r f ( o rder2s t ep7 ) impulse ( ‘ var1 ’ ) response ( ‘ var2’ ) t i t l e (" ‘ var1 ’−>‘var2 ’ ")

136 }137 }138139 log c l o s e

5.4 Annexe 4 : Résultats de l’IRF

Les tableaux reprennent les réponses aux chocs sur une plage de 7 jours.Les intervalles de confiance à 95% sont aussi notés.

log_blogpost->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .432482 .141971 .722992 ||2 | .091227 -.812857 .995312 ||3 | .059969 -.823434 .943373 ||4 | .115361 -.714938 .94566 ||5 | .111505 -.679139 .902149 ||6 | .039947 -.665331 .745225 ||7 | -.03256 -.940158 .875037 |+--------------------------------------------+

35

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_blogpost

log_blogpost->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.051192 -.635646 .533262 ||2 | -.016866 -1.01684 .983112 ||3 | .077861 -.765017 .920738 ||4 | .142715 -.693377 .978806 ||5 | .110265 -.727356 .947887 ||6 | .01544 -.802634 .833514 ||7 | -.057878 -1.01328 .897523 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_albumpost

log_blogpost->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.07784 -.353038 .197358 ||2 | -.107441 -.696858 .481977 ||3 | -.035262 -.588735 .518211 ||4 | .034477 -.458763 .527718 ||5 | .045398 -.347296 .438092 ||6 | .010986 -.381008 .40298 ||7 | -.024125 -.581127 .532877 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_forumthreads

log_blogpost->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.084268 -.346966 .17843 ||2 | -.104854 -.678635 .468926 ||3 | -.019206 -.548327 .509915 ||4 | .050668 -.45529 .556626 ||5 | .050006 -.36465 .464662 ||6 | .005295 -.406248 .416839 ||7 | -.030983 -.590584 .528617 |+--------------------------------------------+

36

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_forumposts

log_blogpost->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .100421 -.126988 .32783 ||2 | -.081674 -1.43218 1.26884 ||3 | -.025388 -1.83474 1.78396 ||4 | .155565 -1.48862 1.79975 ||5 | .257256 -1.1609 1.67542 ||6 | .211453 -.784531 1.20744 ||7 | .094212 -1.20748 1.3959 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_editoviews

log_blogpost->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .061961 -.124768 .24869 ||2 | -.020407 -1.07825 1.03743 ||3 | .039731 -1.26066 1.34013 ||4 | .154831 -1.02699 1.33666 ||5 | .205488 -.799283 1.21026 ||6 | .164322 -.551983 .880627 ||7 | .086154 -.892739 1.06505 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_albumviews

log_blogpost->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.113115 -.246336 .020106 ||2 | -.14115 -.524291 .24199 ||3 | -.065464 -.440868 .30994 ||4 | .003091 -.490314 .496496 ||5 | .01505 -.571308 .601408 ||6 | -.014621 -.623771 .59453 ||7 | -.045498 -.679059 .588063 |+--------------------------------------------+

37

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_editovisitors

log_blogpost->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.121395 -.254985 .012196 ||2 | -.125414 -.343524 .092697 ||3 | -.052661 -.282168 .176847 ||4 | -.006059 -.378389 .366271 ||5 | -.009348 -.415634 .396937 ||6 | -.03392 -.427433 .359593 ||7 | -.04629 -.394299 .30172 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_blogpost->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.021956 -.202402 .158491 ||2 | -.171959 -1.06801 .724097 ||3 | -.095771 -1.11777 .926231 ||4 | .04789 -.850962 .946742 ||5 | .104893 -.721946 .931731 ||6 | .056233 -.581861 .694326 ||7 | -.022398 -.909585 .864788 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_blogviews

log_blogpost->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.05917 -.164269 .04593 ||2 | -.148347 -.832607 .535912 ||3 | -.068103 -.810055 .673849 ||4 | .045919 -.616624 .708461 ||5 | .081434 -.542762 .70563 ||6 | .036198 -.440352 .512748 ||7 | -.024553 -.69009 .640985 |+--------------------------------------------+

38

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_blogpost->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .026421 -.108618 .161461 ||2 | -.045664 -.469657 .378329 ||3 | .005392 -.309459 .320243 ||4 | .03895 -.386819 .464718 ||5 | .014589 -.404757 .433934 ||6 | -.032054 -.444341 .380233 ||7 | -.055586 -.498361 .387189 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_forumviews

log_blogpost->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.07711 -.177211 .022991 ||2 | -.102028 -.428764 .224708 ||3 | -.038182 -.281989 .205625 ||4 | .00595 -.259626 .271526 ||5 | .003956 -.231818 .23973 ||6 | -.019458 -.246417 .207501 ||7 | -.032702 -.322497 .257093 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogpost, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_albumpost->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.040233 -.157427 .07696 ||2 | .007914 -.354261 .370088 ||3 | .000969 -.323338 .325276 ||4 | -.031579 -.356938 .293781 ||5 | -.033795 -.365367 .297777 ||6 | -.010703 -.300855 .279449 ||7 | .012937 -.313582 .339455 |+--------------------------------------------+

39

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_blogpost

log_albumpost->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .177899 -.057873 .413671 ||2 | .052476 -.337545 .442497 ||3 | .007481 -.29742 .312382 ||4 | -.029731 -.366804 .307343 ||5 | -.024887 -.369808 .320035 ||6 | .002908 -.317751 .323568 ||7 | .0254 -.320043 .370844 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_albumpost

log_albumpost->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .01228 -.098736 .123297 ||2 | .027794 -.207239 .262826 ||3 | .01235 -.191464 .216164 ||4 | -.009849 -.210299 .190601 ||5 | -.012615 -.196995 .171766 ||6 | -.001275 -.174105 .171555 ||7 | .009639 -.198383 .21766 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_forumthreads

log_albumpost->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .008545 -.097429 .114518 ||2 | .020668 -.20844 .249776 ||3 | .006446 -.186794 .199687 ||4 | -.013726 -.218558 .191107 ||5 | -.012781 -.198919 .173357 ||6 | .001451 -.166414 .169317 ||7 | .012416 -.188269 .2131 |+--------------------------------------------+

40

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_forumposts

log_albumpost->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.04797 -.139708 .043768 ||2 | -.052196 -.595865 .491473 ||3 | -.045976 -.746105 .654153 ||4 | -.097429 -.722104 .527246 ||5 | -.127146 -.735971 .481679 ||6 | -.109009 -.654955 .436938 ||7 | -.06894 -.694957 .557077 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_editoviews

log_albumpost->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.101805 -.177132 -.026477 ||2 | -.068507 -.494375 .35736 ||3 | -.064506 -.562218 .433206 ||4 | -.097441 -.553012 .358131 ||5 | -.111207 -.54974 .327326 ||6 | -.095117 -.50182 .311585 ||7 | -.067477 -.557356 .422402 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_albumviews

log_albumpost->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.009551 -.063293 .044191 ||2 | .029994 -.12301 .182999 ||3 | .021806 -.115508 .15912 ||4 | .004707 -.191105 .200518 ||5 | .005838 -.227197 .238872 ||6 | .018703 -.221636 .259042 ||7 | .030346 -.22389 .284581 |+--------------------------------------------+

41

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_editovisitors

log_albumpost->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.023562 -.077453 .03033 ||2 | .006334 -.078539 .091207 ||3 | .00325 -.082063 .088563 ||4 | -.003226 -.151619 .145166 ||5 | .004326 -.151752 .160405 ||6 | .016071 -.134537 .16668 ||7 | .021951 -.123108 .16701 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_albumpost->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .027703 -.045091 .100496 ||2 | .041804 -.318912 .40252 ||3 | .035109 -.351242 .42146 ||4 | -.008535 -.349471 .332402 ||5 | -.026963 -.377688 .323762 ||6 | -.011501 -.301556 .278554 ||7 | .012526 -.31696 .342011 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_blogviews

log_albumpost->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .014909 -.027488 .057307 ||2 | .031625 -.243943 .307193 ||3 | .025127 -.252041 .302295 ||4 | -.007904 -.259339 .243532 ||5 | -.018986 -.278968 .240997 ||6 | -.005 -.211427 .201426 ||7 | .013085 -.225715 .251886 |+--------------------------------------------+

42

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_albumpost->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.020956 -.075432 .033519 ||2 | .001268 -.168718 .171255 ||3 | .003514 -.097797 .104824 ||4 | -.011198 -.18346 .161065 ||5 | -.003776 -.16436 .156808 ||6 | .012587 -.129881 .155055 ||7 | .02107 -.130225 .172364 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_forumviews

log_albumpost->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.019776 -.060157 .020605 ||2 | .012118 -.118633 .142869 ||3 | .009423 -.070315 .089162 ||4 | -.003802 -.111589 .103984 ||5 | -.001227 -.093917 .091463 ||6 | .007677 -.0735 .088854 ||7 | .012278 -.088532 .113087 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumpost, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_forumthreads->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.065779 -.606851 .475294 ||2 | -2.17917 -4.6563 .297949 ||3 | -1.96822 -8.07625 4.13981 ||4 | -.704361 -7.5965 6.18778 ||5 | .228996 -6.70153 7.15952 ||6 | .281072 -5.62271 6.18486 ||7 | -.219003 -6.10792 5.66992 |+--------------------------------------------+

43

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_blogpost

log_forumthreads->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.254989 -1.34353 .833551 ||2 | -2.35268 -6.41242 1.70707 ||3 | -1.64533 -8.32563 5.03497 ||4 | -.332186 -7.01156 6.34719 ||5 | .390914 -6.34338 7.12521 ||6 | .174682 -5.96714 6.31651 ||7 | -.454804 -7.62747 6.71786 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_albumpost

log_forumthreads->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .518764 .00621 1.03132 ||2 | -.754873 -2.8059 1.29615 ||3 | -.715108 -5.00868 3.57846 ||4 | -.081335 -4.65094 4.48827 ||5 | .347912 -3.88515 4.58098 ||6 | .300384 -2.29771 2.89848 ||7 | -.009951 -3.13242 3.11252 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_forumthreads

log_forumthreads->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.119637 -.608909 .369636 ||2 | -1.08813 -3.05984 .883586 ||3 | -.779039 -4.96472 3.40664 ||4 | .006215 -4.31297 4.3254 ||5 | .414235 -3.71935 4.54782 ||6 | .267271 -2.47535 3.00989 ||7 | -.104958 -3.70886 3.49894 |+--------------------------------------------+

44

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_forumposts

log_forumthreads->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 2.38788 1.96434 2.81143 ||2 | -.663595 -3.55113 2.22394 ||3 | -2.06259 -11.2321 7.10697 ||4 | -1.05819 -15.0413 12.9249 ||5 | .489169 -14.096 15.0743 ||6 | 1.11895 -11.518 13.7559 ||7 | .653958 -6.1063 7.41422 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_editoviews

log_forumthreads->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 1.54052 1.19273 1.8883 ||2 | -.425093 -2.71584 1.86566 ||3 | -1.09505 -8.21203 6.02193 ||4 | -.403405 -10.5833 9.77652 ||5 | .503342 -10.2279 11.2346 ||6 | .797193 -8.41768 10.0121 ||7 | .45205 -4.78471 5.68881 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_albumviews

log_forumthreads->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.028854 -.276978 .219269 ||2 | -1.28269 -2.3751 -.19028 ||3 | -1.24839 -3.80286 1.30609 ||4 | -.701159 -3.52714 2.12482 ||5 | -.330486 -4.15913 3.49816 ||6 | -.363608 -5.04246 4.31525 ||7 | -.613929 -6.13846 4.9106 |+--------------------------------------------+

45

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_editovisitors

log_forumthreads->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .014043 -.234767 .262854 ||2 | -.711919 -1.63207 .208228 ||3 | -.413864 -1.90283 1.0751 ||4 | .033827 -1.5468 1.61445 ||5 | .150107 -2.58003 2.88024 ||6 | -.049275 -3.38228 3.28373 ||7 | -.29602 -4.04446 3.45242 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_forumthreads->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .979323 .643243 1.3154 ||2 | -1.32678 -3.34589 .692333 ||3 | -1.85728 -7.8866 4.17203 ||4 | -.746844 -8.64777 7.15408 ||5 | .364908 -7.32334 8.05316 ||6 | .596205 -5.80772 7.00013 ||7 | .103848 -4.51632 4.72402 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_blogviews

log_forumthreads->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .401957 .206211 .597703 ||2 | -1.2948 -2.72814 .138528 ||3 | -1.44266 -5.94366 3.05833 ||4 | -.466255 -6.14569 5.21318 ||5 | .364983 -5.2199 5.94987 ||6 | .455893 -4.33333 5.24511 ||7 | .023453 -3.73258 3.77949 |+--------------------------------------------+

46

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_forumthreads->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 1.26373 1.01223 1.51524 ||2 | -.497085 -1.65515 .660977 ||3 | -.321662 -3.13069 2.48737 ||4 | .3404 -1.85478 2.53558 ||5 | .536003 -2.51495 3.58696 ||6 | .257487 -2.86065 3.37562 ||7 | -.110848 -4.18499 3.96329 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_forumviews

log_forumthreads->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .811519 .625082 .997955 ||2 | -.305201 -1.17457 .564165 ||3 | -.142638 -2.25308 1.9678 ||4 | .280104 -1.47451 2.03472 ||5 | .413698 -1.64328 2.47068 ||6 | .244729 -1.4734 1.96286 ||7 | .008099 -2.26755 2.28374 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumthreads, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_forumposts->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 3.3963 2.83517 3.95744 ||2 | 3.21764 -.465345 6.90063 ||3 | .272292 -11.4316 11.9761 ||4 | -1.55711 -18.9416 15.8274 ||5 | -1.36156 -13.3812 10.6581 ||6 | -.113493 -13.5869 13.3599 ||7 | .788696 -18.7247 20.3021 |+--------------------------------------------+

47

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_blogpost

log_forumposts->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 3.40276 2.27386 4.53167 ||2 | 2.61169 -3.98561 9.20899 ||3 | -.726544 -14.5349 13.0818 ||4 | -2.07896 -18.2664 14.1085 ||5 | -1.28998 -10.689 8.10901 ||6 | .214295 -15.9817 16.4103 ||7 | .983504 -19.7052 21.6722 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_albumpost

log_forumposts->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 1.5801 1.04854 2.11166 ||2 | 1.33636 -1.98737 4.66009 ||3 | -.1883 -9.40431 9.02771 ||4 | -1.03235 -12.2732 10.2085 ||5 | -.777564 -6.73255 5.17742 ||6 | -.032737 -7.45401 7.38853 ||7 | .440572 -9.9618 10.8429 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_forumthreads

log_forumposts->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | 2.11775 1.61033 2.62516 ||2 | 1.38116 -1.81218 4.57451 ||3 | -.421822 -9.42822 8.58458 ||4 | -1.18934 -11.8536 9.47495 ||5 | -.710407 -6.30676 4.88595 ||6 | .150661 -8.82611 9.12744 ||7 | .569153 -10.3693 11.5076 |+--------------------------------------------+

48

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_forumposts

log_forumposts->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 3.09791 2.65866 3.53717 ||2 | 5.65645 2.02931 9.28358 ||3 | 2.64798 -13.3549 18.6509 ||4 | -1.0769 -34.1768 32.023 ||5 | -2.30869 -34.959 30.3416 ||6 | -1.13306 -16.1144 13.8483 ||7 | .560871 -19.7914 20.9132 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_editoviews

log_forumposts->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 2.77189 2.41121 3.13257 ||2 | 3.73411 .812501 6.65573 ||3 | 1.51512 -11.0656 14.0958 ||4 | -.727263 -25.2695 23.815 ||5 | -1.33736 -24.7267 22.052 ||6 | -.549959 -11.2524 10.1525 ||7 | .436476 -12.2117 13.0846 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_albumviews

log_forumposts->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 1.49477 1.23745 1.7521 ||2 | 1.1806 -.456246 2.81744 ||3 | -.178161 -4.99717 4.64085 ||4 | -.865467 -7.74034 6.00941 ||5 | -.618268 -7.46522 6.22868 ||6 | .031411 -11.3032 11.366 ||7 | .43656 -12.8578 13.7309 |+--------------------------------------------+

49

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_editovisitors

log_forumposts->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .758154 .500116 1.01619 ||2 | .12397 -1.38294 1.63087 ||3 | -.858442 -3.97 2.25311 ||4 | -.947959 -4.03274 2.13682 ||5 | -.378748 -5.58049 4.82299 ||6 | .199328 -8.60395 9.00261 ||7 | .364471 -7.41976 8.14871 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_forumposts->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 2.6499 2.30136 2.99845 ||2 | 3.5966 .913919 6.27927 ||3 | .870145 -10.0443 11.7846 ||4 | -1.52602 -21.0396 17.9876 ||5 | -1.75012 -17.2904 13.7902 ||6 | -.48715 -10.854 9.87974 ||7 | .697167 -18.2792 19.6736 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_blogviews

log_forumposts->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 2.41049 2.20749 2.6135 ||2 | 2.76842 1.00511 4.53173 ||3 | .429798 -7.4761 8.33569 ||4 | -1.32104 -15.6028 12.9607 ||5 | -1.29592 -12.2975 9.70563 ||6 | -.223592 -8.88287 8.43568 ||7 | .64157 -14.1314 15.4145 |+--------------------------------------------+

50

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_forumposts->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .270354 .009518 .53119 ||2 | .200278 -1.52511 1.92566 ||3 | -1.2534 -6.71754 4.21074 ||4 | -1.46114 -7.37087 4.44859 ||5 | -.637489 -4.21543 2.94046 ||6 | .226246 -9.64721 10.0997 ||7 | .494514 -9.43744 10.4265 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_forumviews

log_forumposts->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .510448 .317097 .703798 ||2 | .269859 -.993283 1.533 ||3 | -.736221 -4.66443 3.19199 ||4 | -.905539 -5.73588 3.9248 ||5 | -.418478 -2.57888 1.74192 ||6 | .123892 -5.31452 5.5623 ||7 | .308787 -5.67634 6.29391 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumposts, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_editoviews->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .228917 -.382266 .8401 ||2 | .541593 -1.22101 2.3042 ||3 | .129614 -1.43573 1.69496 ||4 | -.069402 -1.76339 1.62459 ||5 | -.033151 -1.52281 1.4565 ||6 | .067209 -1.05408 1.1885 ||7 | .111008 -1.10884 1.33085 |+--------------------------------------------+

51

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_blogpost

log_editoviews->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.826947 -2.05654 .402641 ||2 | .310882 -1.80376 2.42552 ||3 | -.00467 -1.89316 1.88382 ||4 | -.11752 -1.93693 1.70189 ||5 | -.032853 -1.43885 1.37314 ||6 | .076853 -1.11032 1.26403 ||7 | .101671 -1.34866 1.552 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_albumpost

log_editoviews->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .097606 -.481363 .676575 ||2 | .150242 -.765173 1.06566 ||3 | -.040158 -1.0225 .942181 ||4 | -.109101 -1.17 .951795 ||5 | -.061502 -.929152 .806148 ||6 | .007473 -.529197 .544144 ||7 | .036052 -.453437 .525541 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_forumthreads

log_editoviews->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .067021 -.48565 .619691 ||2 | .141904 -.727284 1.01109 ||3 | -.052666 -1.04146 .936126 ||4 | -.115053 -1.14309 .912983 ||5 | -.048516 -.874349 .777317 ||6 | .027227 -.572771 .627224 ||7 | .047531 -.527559 .62262 |+--------------------------------------------+

52

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_forumposts

log_editoviews->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .20336 -.27507 .681789 ||2 | .892663 -1.90549 3.69082 ||3 | .63956 -1.90198 3.1811 ||4 | .24056 -2.85563 3.33675 ||5 | .156701 -3.18747 3.50087 ||6 | .265815 -2.35622 2.88785 ||7 | .367874 -1.41506 2.15081 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_editoviews

log_editoviews->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .34591 -.046935 .738755 ||2 | .79074 -1.38389 2.96537 ||3 | .517988 -1.31258 2.34855 ||4 | .272295 -1.97217 2.51676 ||5 | .228659 -2.25812 2.71544 ||6 | .288222 -1.69049 2.26693 ||7 | .332103 -1.07567 1.73988 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_albumviews

log_editoviews->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .325854 .04558 .606128 ||2 | .283617 -.493023 1.06026 ||3 | .021124 -.78732 .829568 ||4 | -.060135 -.923384 .803114 ||5 | -.031375 -.907167 .844418 ||6 | .014029 -1.04657 1.07463 ||7 | .02572 -1.26533 1.31677 |+--------------------------------------------+

53

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_editovisitors

log_editoviews->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .162071 -.11898 .443122 ||2 | .120521 -.329002 .570043 ||3 | -.080875 -.70488 .543131 ||4 | -.103156 -.682019 .475707 ||5 | -.047287 -.628469 .533895 ||6 | -.005461 -.762597 .751676 ||7 | -.004719 -.817253 .807814 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_editoviews->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.056052 -.43568 .323576 ||2 | .328537 -1.47319 2.13026 ||3 | .075372 -1.46088 1.61163 ||4 | -.161941 -2.00758 1.68369 ||5 | -.136226 -1.8548 1.58235 ||6 | -.004921 -1.16748 1.15764 ||7 | .080038 -.93955 1.09963 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_blogviews

log_editoviews->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.105799 -.326909 .115311 ||2 | .228961 -1.1909 1.64882 ||3 | .016398 -1.14361 1.17641 ||4 | -.145919 -1.51074 1.2189 ||5 | -.105321 -1.35053 1.13988 ||6 | .003062 -.860018 .866142 ||7 | .063145 -.762817 .889106 |+--------------------------------------------+

54

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_editoviews->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.217898 -.501997 .066201 ||2 | .135026 -.676795 .946848 ||3 | -.116937 -.990844 .75697 ||4 | -.174936 -.956507 .606635 ||5 | -.085117 -.730583 .560349 ||6 | -.015722 -.69821 .666766 ||7 | -.00824 -.787859 .771378 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_forumviews

log_editoviews->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.023311 -.233906 .187283 ||2 | .100711 -.570841 .772263 ||3 | -.108568 -.744215 .527079 ||4 | -.133895 -.6666 .39881 ||5 | -.069584 -.516233 .377065 ||6 | -.019808 -.38764 .348025 ||7 | -.009519 -.432288 .413249 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editoviews, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_albumviews->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.303553 -.784524 .177419 ||2 | -.564273 -2.24735 1.1188 ||3 | -.119429 -2.95884 2.71999 ||4 | .063581 -2.12203 2.24919 ||5 | -.009359 -1.57607 1.55736 ||6 | -.140518 -1.41486 1.13382 ||7 | -.197319 -1.39294 .998304 |+--------------------------------------------+

55

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_blogpost

log_albumviews->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .690284 -.277344 1.65791 ||2 | -.384305 -2.71411 1.9455 ||3 | -.046061 -2.96917 2.87705 ||4 | .043532 -1.884 1.97106 ||5 | -.077834 -1.99787 1.8422 ||6 | -.212717 -1.95027 1.52483 ||7 | -.242804 -1.6209 1.13529 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_albumpost

log_albumviews->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.147637 -.603257 .307984 ||2 | -.182175 -1.38663 1.02228 ||3 | .025216 -1.75519 1.80563 ||4 | .090173 -1.12973 1.31007 ||5 | .030173 -.582995 .643342 ||6 | -.046793 -.507371 .413786 ||7 | -.074146 -.746081 .597789 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_forumthreads

log_albumviews->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.111537 -.546462 .323388 ||2 | -.169238 -1.33019 .991713 ||3 | .041117 -1.69178 1.77401 ||4 | .095634 -1.08968 1.28095 ||5 | .013908 -.722348 .750165 ||6 | -.069896 -.595046 .455253 ||7 | -.087759 -.744926 .569408 |+--------------------------------------------+

56

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_forumposts

log_albumviews->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .605996 .229496 .982497 ||2 | -.190672 -2.5084 2.12706 ||3 | .035486 -4.64937 4.72035 ||4 | .372754 -4.63306 5.37856 ||5 | .359284 -2.81127 3.52984 ||6 | .149277 -1.66527 1.96382 ||7 | -.03019 -2.30726 2.24688 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_editoviews

log_albumviews->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .453632 .144482 .762782 ||2 | -.073646 -1.89305 1.74576 ||3 | .153157 -3.41021 3.71652 ||4 | .329967 -3.15933 3.81927 ||5 | .286529 -1.93786 2.51092 ||6 | .141938 -1.39263 1.67651 ||7 | .030504 -2.01675 2.07776 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_albumviews

log_albumviews->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.436258 -.656821 -.215696 ||2 | -.409994 -1.14162 .321633 ||3 | -.163399 -1.37531 1.04852 ||4 | -.110357 -1.21032 .989603 ||5 | -.167693 -1.56436 1.22897 ||6 | -.232533 -1.69613 1.23106 ||7 | -.251669 -1.63135 1.12801 |+--------------------------------------------+

57

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_editovisitors

log_albumviews->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.241007 -.462181 -.019834 ||2 | -.203043 -.721977 .315892 ||3 | -.010048 -.697345 .677249 ||4 | -.005079 -.776898 .766741 ||5 | -.073922 -1.17797 1.03013 ||6 | -.11861 -1.09011 .852887 ||7 | -.113799 -.825331 .597734 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_albumviews->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.016209 -.314959 .28254 ||2 | -.398935 -1.9527 1.15483 ||3 | -.102982 -3.0542 2.84824 ||4 | .137839 -2.54844 2.82412 ||5 | .088326 -1.44972 1.62637 ||6 | -.066448 -1.0061 .873203 ||7 | -.158319 -1.1966 .879961 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_blogviews

log_albumviews->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .032568 -.141435 .206571 ||2 | -.293362 -1.46056 .873834 ||3 | -.047274 -2.28262 2.18807 ||4 | .116805 -1.81832 2.05193 ||5 | .058456 -1.11289 1.2298 ||6 | -.065431 -.844403 .713541 ||7 | -.12755 -.930986 .675887 |+--------------------------------------------+

58

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_albumviews->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .088037 -.135535 .31161 ||2 | -.249773 -1.03536 .535809 ||3 | .027145 -1.26117 1.31546 ||4 | .080866 -.69556 .857291 ||5 | -.015077 -1.10406 1.0739 ||6 | -.08018 -1.04083 .880474 ||7 | -.073708 -.790201 .642784 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_forumviews

log_albumviews->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.064202 -.229929 .101526 ||2 | -.167397 -.774283 .439489 ||3 | .059016 -.93243 1.05046 ||4 | .083868 -.446234 .613971 ||5 | .018464 -.56983 .606757 ||6 | -.026252 -.530052 .477549 ||7 | -.025783 -.513792 .462227 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumviews, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_editovisitors->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .021256 -1.16489 1.2074 ||2 | .529174 -3.57005 4.6284 ||3 | .630961 -4.87484 6.13676 ||4 | .506824 -4.07167 5.08531 ||5 | .360733 -3.21663 3.93809 ||6 | .321186 -2.63961 3.28198 ||7 | .380859 -2.29713 3.05885 |+--------------------------------------------+

59

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_blogpost

log_editovisitors->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.034752 -2.42106 2.35156 ||2 | .758864 -3.89557 5.4133 ||3 | .722683 -4.44106 5.88643 ||4 | .532212 -3.46782 4.53224 ||5 | .39723 -3.4617 4.25616 ||6 | .400902 -3.38425 4.18605 ||7 | .490104 -3.01774 3.99794 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_albumpost

log_editovisitors->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.028746 -1.15237 1.09488 ||2 | .158687 -2.93011 3.24748 ||3 | .179722 -3.51612 3.87556 ||4 | .094569 -2.78808 2.97722 ||5 | .01519 -1.76886 1.79924 ||6 | .004026 -.825907 .833959 ||7 | .046555 -1.01693 1.11004 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_forumthreads

log_editovisitors->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .107692 -.964896 1.18028 ||2 | .286888 -2.73688 3.31066 ||3 | .255172 -3.25102 3.76136 ||4 | .126705 -2.51473 2.76814 ||5 | .036744 -1.68101 1.7545 ||6 | .03534 -.833937 .904617 ||7 | .08736 -.994095 1.16881 |+--------------------------------------------+

60

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_forumposts

log_editovisitors->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.35926 -1.28777 .569245 ||2 | .080055 -5.58486 5.74497 ||3 | .325938 -10.3262 10.9781 ||4 | .209381 -11.2023 11.621 ||5 | -.025811 -9.37735 9.32573 ||6 | -.150654 -7.14137 6.84006 ||7 | -.089249 -6.06216 5.88366 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_editoviews

log_editovisitors->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.191319 -.953727 .57109 ||2 | .017325 -4.45651 4.49116 ||3 | .083361 -7.74008 7.90681 ||4 | -.011733 -8.31676 8.29329 ||5 | -.148451 -7.25953 6.96262 ||6 | -.201746 -6.04899 5.6455 ||7 | -.140987 -5.70023 5.41826 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_albumviews

log_editovisitors->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .907292 .363354 1.45123 ||2 | 1.02719 -.672456 2.72684 ||3 | 1.00383 -1.16361 3.17127 ||4 | .90252 -1.51427 3.31931 ||5 | .804356 -2.51679 4.1255 ||6 | .762843 -3.22695 4.75264 ||7 | .766724 -3.50501 5.03846 |+--------------------------------------------+

61

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_editovisitors

log_editovisitors->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .155319 -.390127 .700764 ||2 | .336843 -.709323 1.38301 ||3 | .326273 -.68904 1.34159 ||4 | .264701 -1.43002 1.95942 ||5 | .230263 -2.24156 2.70208 ||6 | .242594 -2.37013 2.85532 ||7 | .271792 -2.1194 2.66299 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_editovisitors->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .057163 -.679595 .793922 ||2 | .422019 -3.45381 4.29784 ||3 | .546245 -5.67231 6.7648 ||4 | .390736 -5.17954 5.96101 ||5 | .19136 -3.59111 3.97383 ||6 | .108084 -2.08234 2.29851 ||7 | .157189 -1.17091 1.48529 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_blogviews

log_editovisitors->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .090593 -.338523 .519709 ||2 | .403443 -2.45698 3.26387 ||3 | .450132 -4.04263 4.94289 ||4 | .29552 -3.57168 4.16272 ||5 | .133385 -2.51868 2.78544 ||6 | .077729 -1.56789 1.72335 ||7 | .124097 -.965742 1.21394 |+--------------------------------------------+

62

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_editovisitors->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.357188 -.908549 .194174 ||2 | -.08275 -2.02724 1.86174 ||3 | -.044915 -1.81441 1.72458 ||4 | -.096558 -1.34671 1.1536 ||5 | -.108678 -2.06721 1.84986 ||6 | -.061397 -2.12432 2.00153 ||7 | .005884 -1.84779 1.85956 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_forumviews

log_editovisitors->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.234284 -.642992 .174424 ||2 | -.073211 -1.49142 1.345 ||3 | -.076215 -1.51662 1.36419 ||4 | -.121604 -1.01488 .771674 ||5 | -.141091 -1.11048 .828295 ||6 | -.118361 -1.08572 .848998 ||7 | -.077207 -1.11004 .955623 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_editovisitors, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_albumvisitors->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .370785 -.571843 1.31341 ||2 | -.149116 -3.37551 3.07727 ||3 | -.109296 -4.92834 4.70975 ||4 | .063498 -5.00952 5.13652 ||5 | .130796 -3.91256 4.17415 ||6 | .032844 -3.79065 3.85634 ||7 | -.136791 -4.6947 4.42111 |+--------------------------------------------+

63

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_blogpost

log_albumvisitors->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .577188 -1.31921 2.47358 ||2 | -.380797 -4.31414 3.55254 ||3 | -.107453 -5.00224 4.78734 ||4 | .123877 -4.50074 4.7485 ||5 | .134861 -3.67157 3.9413 ||6 | -.038384 -4.40755 4.33078 ||7 | -.243209 -5.23663 4.75021 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_albumpost

log_albumvisitors->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .071145 -.8218 .964089 ||2 | -.134643 -2.48958 2.22029 ||3 | -.084017 -3.42864 3.26061 ||4 | .035424 -3.20561 3.27646 ||5 | .082922 -2.1377 2.30355 ||6 | .033294 -1.90769 1.97428 ||7 | -.051832 -2.49837 2.39471 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_forumthreads

log_albumvisitors->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.130952 -.983337 .721432 ||2 | -.300305 -2.59336 1.99275 ||3 | -.1628 -3.39104 3.06544 ||4 | .011902 -3.08071 3.10452 ||5 | .065623 -2.10032 2.23157 ||6 | .003704 -2.12297 2.13038 ||7 | -.085227 -2.57735 2.4069 |+--------------------------------------------+

64

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_forumposts

log_albumvisitors->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .674527 -.063355 1.41241 ||2 | .240171 -4.25755 4.7379 ||3 | .272282 -8.17085 8.71542 ||4 | .671085 -10.0458 11.3879 ||5 | .972622 -8.77104 10.7163 ||6 | .976532 -5.86094 7.81401 ||7 | .738497 -5.68632 7.16331 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_editoviews

log_albumvisitors->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .354346 -.251539 .960232 ||2 | .260742 -3.28059 3.80207 ||3 | .461397 -5.83583 6.75862 ||4 | .750844 -7.03927 8.54096 ||5 | .923523 -6.17079 8.01783 ||6 | .891764 -4.31811 6.10164 ||7 | .713044 -4.23872 5.6648 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_albumviews

log_albumvisitors->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.025953 -.458221 .406314 ||2 | -.285 -1.64771 1.07771 ||3 | -.296639 -2.26291 1.66963 ||4 | -.254458 -2.60736 2.09845 ||5 | -.254845 -3.10776 2.59807 ||6 | -.323731 -3.96162 3.31415 ||7 | -.413715 -4.46834 3.64091 |+--------------------------------------------+

65

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_editovisitors

log_albumvisitors->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .541603 .108138 .975068 ||2 | .127314 -.750902 1.00553 ||3 | .03972 -1.06007 1.13951 ||4 | .002413 -1.46572 1.47054 ||5 | -.065231 -2.15817 2.02771 ||6 | -.156252 -2.69979 2.38729 ||7 | -.223798 -2.60137 2.15378 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_albumvisitors->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.068766 -.654267 .516736 ||2 | -.475603 -3.52069 2.56949 ||3 | -.435563 -5.56443 4.6933 ||4 | -.125139 -5.99234 5.74207 ||5 | .07972 -4.5815 4.74094 ||6 | .067017 -3.30449 3.43852 ||7 | -.079329 -4.20583 4.04717 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_blogviews

log_albumvisitors->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.166887 -.507906 .174131 ||2 | -.526733 -2.79694 1.74347 ||3 | -.414881 -4.15944 3.32968 ||4 | -.13046 -4.3432 4.08228 ||5 | .036072 -3.27005 3.34219 ||6 | .020183 -2.51223 2.5526 ||7 | -.092111 -3.20173 3.0175 |+--------------------------------------------+

66

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_albumvisitors->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .778768 .340602 1.21694 ||2 | .361451 -1.15899 1.88189 ||3 | .282519 -1.64568 2.21071 ||4 | .243706 -1.48954 1.97696 ||5 | .127771 -1.62498 1.88052 ||6 | -.019338 -2.40877 2.37009 ||7 | -.127595 -2.50508 2.24989 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_forumviews

log_albumvisitors->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .379345 .054545 .704145 ||2 | .102474 -1.03529 1.24023 ||3 | .097001 -1.36528 1.55929 ||4 | .105442 -1.17438 1.38526 ||5 | .066975 -.879771 1.01372 ||6 | -.001021 -1.21375 1.2117 ||7 | -.056007 -1.39051 1.2785 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_albumvisitors, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_blogviews->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.197763 -1.21592 .820398 ||2 | -.499742 -3.54113 2.54165 ||3 | -.21653 -2.66812 2.23506 ||4 | -.004581 -3.32715 3.31799 ||5 | -.029756 -3.39638 3.33687 ||6 | -.14116 -2.24234 1.96002 ||7 | -.198277 -2.09345 1.6969 |+--------------------------------------------+

67

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_blogpost

log_blogviews->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | 1.6106 -.437756 3.65895 ||2 | -.089307 -3.39813 3.21951 ||3 | -.045835 -2.60204 2.51037 ||4 | .090293 -3.4265 3.60709 ||5 | -.001836 -3.1661 3.16243 ||6 | -.137744 -2.20992 1.93443 ||7 | -.179493 -2.585 2.22602 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_albumpost

log_blogviews->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.269619 -1.23411 .694877 ||2 | -.201613 -2.03085 1.62762 ||3 | .006173 -1.61064 1.62298 ||4 | .113525 -2.04963 2.27668 ||5 | .079911 -1.84097 2.00079 ||6 | .002047 -.928307 .932401 ||7 | -.039498 -.746621 .667624 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_forumthreads

log_blogviews->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.308982 -1.22967 .611704 ||2 | -.216502 -1.99076 1.55775 ||3 | .015863 -1.55627 1.58799 ||4 | .121373 -2.07964 2.32239 ||5 | .06547 -1.78695 1.91789 ||6 | -.024215 -.958706 .910276 ||7 | -.058923 -.990761 .872916 |+--------------------------------------------+

68

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_forumposts

log_blogviews->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.11702 -1.91403 -.320016 ||2 | -1.49155 -6.17992 3.19681 ||3 | -1.22208 -6.32188 3.87772 ||4 | -.717218 -6.11376 4.67932 ||5 | -.534299 -7.12846 6.05986 ||6 | -.60856 -5.76647 4.54935 ||7 | -.711224 -3.69876 2.27631 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_editoviews

log_blogviews->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.03058 -1.68501 -.376145 ||2 | -1.3387 -5.00034 2.32294 ||3 | -1.03645 -4.62109 2.5482 ||4 | -.703586 -4.67024 3.26307 ||5 | -.59351 -5.29273 4.10571 ||6 | -.625265 -4.32381 3.07328 ||7 | -.659742 -3.11719 1.79771 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_albumviews

log_blogviews->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.668635 -1.13554 -.201731 ||2 | -.558609 -1.85887 .74165 ||3 | -.248344 -1.3668 .870114 ||4 | -.088269 -1.87281 1.69627 ||5 | -.069612 -1.97998 1.84075 ||6 | -.094001 -1.96471 1.7767 ||7 | -.093751 -2.23789 2.05039 |+--------------------------------------------+

69

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_editovisitors

log_blogviews->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.404401 -.8726 .063797 ||2 | -.286599 -.997259 .424061 ||3 | -.033457 -.861195 .794281 ||4 | .055285 -1.21245 1.32302 ||5 | .029932 -1.12661 1.18647 ||6 | -.002927 -1.31243 1.30657 ||7 | .001535 -1.44605 1.44912 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_blogviews->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | -.37198 -1.0044 .260438 ||2 | -.446748 -3.52251 2.62902 ||3 | -.163415 -2.97046 2.64363 ||4 | .137129 -3.22963 3.50388 ||5 | .152472 -3.68102 3.98596 ||6 | .01214 -2.36126 2.38554 ||7 | -.100005 -1.52011 1.3201 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_blogviews

log_blogviews->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.30227 -.670614 .066075 ||2 | -.335942 -2.71439 2.0425 ||3 | -.077707 -2.08553 1.93011 ||4 | .145424 -2.37872 2.66957 ||5 | .13287 -2.67304 2.93878 ||6 | .011768 -1.65019 1.67372 ||7 | -.072246 -1.27962 1.13513 |+--------------------------------------------+

70

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_blogviews->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.247483 -.72076 .225794 ||2 | -.101234 -1.52052 1.31806 ||3 | .144023 -.842397 1.13044 ||4 | .233161 -1.48961 1.95593 ||5 | .147201 -1.13155 1.42595 ||6 | .062917 -1.03136 1.15719 ||7 | .04566 -1.39121 1.48253 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_forumviews

log_blogviews->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.168386 -.519212 .182441 ||2 | -.084616 -1.20355 1.03432 ||3 | .123398 -.576934 .823731 ||4 | .183231 -.943352 1.30981 ||5 | .125987 -.715591 .967565 ||6 | .067118 -.482212 .616449 ||7 | .048027 -.741279 .837332 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogviews, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_blogvisitors->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.72823 -3.31175 -.144715 ||2 | -1.11358 -5.6447 3.41753 ||3 | .146153 -3.61095 3.90326 ||4 | .796759 -7.71173 9.30524 ||5 | .724082 -6.4205 7.86867 ||6 | .283621 -3.86577 4.43302 ||7 | -.035033 -7.08688 7.01681 |+--------------------------------------------+

71

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_blogpost

log_blogvisitors->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -3.07652 -6.26227 .109229 ||2 | -1.23587 -6.29694 3.8252 ||3 | .399539 -4.85339 5.65247 ||4 | .957934 -7.98014 9.89601 ||5 | .722681 -5.24091 6.68627 ||6 | .211463 -4.67485 5.09778 ||7 | -.055341 -8.01062 7.89994 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_albumpost

log_blogvisitors->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.611693 -2.11175 .88836 ||2 | -.428017 -2.81274 1.95671 ||3 | .135966 -2.86343 3.13537 ||4 | .406757 -5.13254 5.94605 ||5 | .308092 -3.54888 4.16506 ||6 | .048133 -2.11344 2.20971 ||7 | -.114213 -3.84932 3.62089 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_forumthreads

log_blogvisitors->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.644257 -2.07617 .78766 ||2 | -.384688 -2.66973 1.90035 ||3 | .249021 -2.7623 3.26034 ||4 | .475622 -5.09205 6.04329 ||5 | .293699 -3.2329 3.8203 ||6 | -.005238 -2.77663 2.76615 ||7 | -.146699 -4.32754 4.03414 |+--------------------------------------------+

72

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_forumposts

log_blogvisitors->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.26757 -2.50713 -.028004 ||2 | -2.26141 -9.49036 4.96754 ||3 | -.94634 -6.78999 4.89731 ||4 | .390082 -11.7448 12.525 ||5 | .836764 -15.1673 16.8408 ||6 | .459473 -8.64869 9.56764 ||7 | -.092974 -6.99942 6.81347 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_editoviews

log_blogvisitors->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.32071 -2.33854 -.302889 ||2 | -1.51733 -7.14135 4.1067 ||3 | -.612295 -4.70518 3.48059 ||4 | .194097 -8.90913 9.29733 ||5 | .438233 -10.72 11.5964 ||6 | .201536 -6.13844 6.54151 ||7 | -.106282 -4.81017 4.5976 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_albumviews

log_blogvisitors->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.164324 -.890488 .56184 ||2 | .164993 -1.80776 2.13774 ||3 | .618154 -1.23044 2.46674 ||4 | .791925 -3.14522 4.72907 ||5 | .665812 -2.42015 3.75177 ||6 | .411631 -3.14587 3.96913 ||7 | .24807 -4.79327 5.28941 |+--------------------------------------------+

73

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_editovisitors

log_blogvisitors->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.053256 -.781432 .67492 ||2 | .333181 -.735613 1.40198 ||3 | .620171 -1.06753 2.30787 ||4 | .567073 -1.86153 2.99568 ||5 | .322246 -1.24232 1.88681 ||6 | .093727 -3.09596 3.28342 ||7 | .017818 -3.43882 3.47445 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_blogvisitors->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.78888 -1.77246 .194701 ||2 | -1.21486 -5.88686 3.45713 ||3 | -.136091 -3.58925 3.31706 ||4 | .666737 -7.86483 9.19831 ||5 | .718368 -8.26659 9.70333 ||6 | .27647 -3.67536 4.2283 ||7 | -.128168 -6.60329 6.34696 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_blogviews

log_blogvisitors->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | -.582218 -1.15509 -.009343 ||2 | -.859168 -4.53001 2.81168 ||3 | -.004575 -2.45475 2.4456 ||4 | .557245 -5.95815 7.07264 ||5 | .52388 -5.96911 7.01687 ||6 | .149827 -2.81091 3.11056 ||7 | -.143554 -5.41839 5.13128 |+--------------------------------------------+

74

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_blogvisitors->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.359598 -1.09567 .376476 ||2 | -.118571 -2.21437 1.97723 ||3 | .535674 -1.59456 2.6659 ||4 | .570515 -3.62415 4.76518 ||5 | .266637 -1.38288 1.91615 ||6 | -.044437 -3.42913 3.34026 ||7 | -.148932 -4.45299 4.15512 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_forumviews

log_blogvisitors->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.330837 -.876467 .214794 ||2 | -.059502 -1.7717 1.6527 ||3 | .307533 -1.07319 1.68825 ||4 | .312009 -2.65672 3.28074 ||5 | .123277 -1.29037 1.53692 ||6 | -.072987 -1.91925 1.77328 ||7 | -.141272 -2.6969 2.41436 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_blogvisitors, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_forumviews->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .224064 -1.30963 1.75776 ||2 | .519055 -4.20586 5.24397 ||3 | .366517 -3.24142 3.97445 ||4 | .03781 -3.10058 3.1762 ||5 | -.133086 -5.09362 4.82745 ||6 | -.065641 -3.78693 3.65564 ||7 | .093008 -1.90388 2.0899 |+--------------------------------------------+

75

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_blogpost

log_forumviews->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .86043 -2.22508 3.94594 ||2 | .793263 -4.14236 5.72889 ||3 | .379968 -2.5833 3.34324 ||4 | -.029793 -3.82156 3.76198 ||5 | -.16774 -5.39522 5.05974 ||6 | -.046036 -3.37543 3.28335 ||7 | .125658 -2.13166 2.38298 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_albumpost

log_forumviews->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .213105 -1.23975 1.66596 ||2 | .322782 -2.75347 3.39904 ||3 | .172877 -1.7509 2.09665 ||4 | -.03713 -1.98069 1.90643 ||5 | -.12876 -2.94551 2.68799 ||6 | -.080368 -1.90705 1.74631 ||7 | .012803 -.94666 .972267 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_forumthreads

log_forumviews->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .231684 -1.15518 1.61855 ||2 | .323311 -2.68107 3.3277 ||3 | .137443 -1.61392 1.8888 ||4 | -.079464 -2.31025 2.15133 ||5 | -.143875 -3.09327 2.80552 ||6 | -.063235 -1.75507 1.6286 ||7 | .041522 -1.17302 1.25607 |+--------------------------------------------+

76

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_forumposts

log_forumviews->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .496023 -.704539 1.69659 ||2 | 1.19987 -5.90637 8.30611 ||3 | 1.21153 -7.64083 10.0639 ||4 | .713234 -4.16405 5.59052 ||5 | .238121 -6.02827 6.50451 ||6 | .110389 -6.7983 7.01908 ||7 | .258333 -3.42778 3.94445 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_editoviews

log_forumviews->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .494194 -.491605 1.47999 ||2 | .937725 -4.63094 6.50639 ||3 | .90638 -5.29563 7.10839 ||4 | .572795 -2.91685 4.06244 ||5 | .280531 -4.07076 4.63182 ||6 | .208331 -4.28411 4.70077 ||7 | .292201 -2.16505 2.74946 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_albumviews

log_forumviews->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .388512 -.314803 1.09183 ||2 | .513188 -1.47365 2.50003 ||3 | .353415 -1.15554 1.86237 ||4 | .132925 -2.25268 2.51853 ||5 | .020526 -3.1078 3.14885 ||6 | .034932 -2.41311 2.48297 ||7 | .092002 -1.77229 1.9563 |+--------------------------------------------+

77

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_editovisitors

log_forumviews->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .256867 -.448397 .962131 ||2 | .259451 -.813442 1.33234 ||3 | .085017 -.818549 .988584 ||4 | -.059354 -2.07451 1.9558 ||5 | -.081039 -2.04289 1.88081 ||6 | -.020969 -1.20931 1.16737 ||7 | .032915 -1.27879 1.34462 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_forumviews->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .169233 -.7834 1.12187 ||2 | .57295 -4.14818 5.29408 ||3 | .458233 -4.23517 5.15163 ||4 | .068372 -2.57955 2.71629 ||5 | -.195619 -5.11858 4.72734 ||6 | -.177313 -4.53527 4.18064 ||7 | -.00357 -1.93894 1.9318 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_blogviews

log_forumviews->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .167593 -.387256 .722443 ||2 | .435291 -3.1677 4.03828 ||3 | .305176 -3.05968 3.67003 ||4 | -.002401 -2.06946 2.06466 ||5 | -.181034 -4.00107 3.639 ||6 | -.137434 -3.26411 2.98924 ||7 | .008071 -1.42027 1.43641 |+--------------------------------------------+

78

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_forumviews->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | .486975 -.225939 1.19989 ||2 | .312018 -1.9089 2.53294 ||3 | .017338 -.603871 .638546 ||4 | -.191619 -2.50838 2.12515 ||5 | -.210776 -2.77022 2.34867 ||6 | -.105858 -1.29842 1.0867 ||7 | -.008955 -1.54804 1.53013 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_forumviews

log_forumviews->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | .114473 -.413989 .642935 ||2 | .138303 -1.56184 1.83844 ||3 | -.008169 -.643109 .626771 ||4 | -.134626 -1.45682 1.18757 ||5 | -.149771 -1.72951 1.42997 ||6 | -.084716 -.809952 .64052 ||7 | -.020785 -.937528 .895957 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumviews, and response = log_forumvisitors

log_forumvisitors->log_blogpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.4774 -2.88336 -.071441 ||2 | -.702792 -5.24454 3.83896 ||3 | -.076656 -5.05897 4.90565 ||4 | .154759 -4.69371 5.00323 ||5 | .008044 -5.40146 5.41755 ||6 | -.254474 -4.72505 4.2161 ||7 | -.355845 -3.44417 2.73248 |+--------------------------------------------+

79

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_blogpost

log_forumvisitors->log_albumpost

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -2.83072 -5.65926 -.002178 ||2 | -.790429 -5.80491 4.22405 ||3 | -.06156 -4.83139 4.70827 ||4 | .132694 -4.7548 5.02019 ||5 | -.062007 -5.61789 5.49388 ||6 | -.312587 -4.9021 4.27692 ||7 | -.346826 -3.93684 3.24319 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_albumpost

log_forumvisitors->log_forumthreads

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.744029 -2.07589 .587827 ||2 | -.337244 -3.49258 2.8181 ||3 | .064306 -3.08431 3.21292 ||4 | .200168 -2.83387 3.23421 ||5 | .107104 -2.87894 3.09315 ||6 | -.043374 -2.12604 2.03929 ||7 | -.099196 -1.15868 .960286 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_forumthreads

log_forumvisitors->log_forumposts

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.604502 -1.87586 .666858 ||2 | -.195333 -3.27728 2.88662 ||3 | .176229 -2.80338 3.15584 ||4 | .23392 -2.8433 3.31114 ||5 | .075948 -3.0351 3.18699 ||6 | -.093039 -2.23811 2.05203 ||7 | -.129327 -1.40124 1.14258 |+--------------------------------------------+

80

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_forumposts

log_forumvisitors->log_editoviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -2.46419 -3.56476 -1.36361 ||2 | -2.52097 -9.11533 4.07339 ||3 | -1.4971 -11.6418 8.64755 ||4 | -.755522 -10.3235 8.81249 ||5 | -.594683 -9.78081 8.59144 ||6 | -.846474 -8.51646 6.82351 ||7 | -1.06334 -5.78987 3.66318 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_editoviews

log_forumvisitors->log_albumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.89056 -2.79426 -.986863 ||2 | -1.83437 -7.01591 3.34717 ||3 | -1.26811 -8.61817 6.08194 ||4 | -.827224 -7.78601 6.13156 ||5 | -.73055 -7.26658 5.80548 ||6 | -.860035 -6.09234 4.37227 ||7 | -.944093 -4.35332 2.46513 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_albumviews

log_forumvisitors->log_editovisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.16864 -1.81339 -.523904 ||2 | -.767901 -2.67234 1.13654 ||3 | -.358682 -2.38366 1.66629 ||4 | -.154684 -2.89112 2.58175 ||5 | -.158969 -3.72957 3.41163 ||6 | -.22674 -3.81204 3.35856 ||7 | -.223338 -3.48663 3.03995 |+--------------------------------------------+

81

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_editovisitors

log_forumvisitors->log_albumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.700556 -1.34708 -.054029 ||2 | -.227407 -1.33481 .879995 ||3 | .045207 -1.06779 1.1582 ||4 | .08947 -1.97368 2.15262 ||5 | .007337 -2.43481 2.44949 ||6 | -.059271 -2.3165 2.19796 ||7 | -.038719 -2.01585 1.93841 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_albumvisitors

log_forumvisitors->log_blogviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.08835 -1.96165 -.215059 ||2 | -.848624 -5.27599 3.57874 ||3 | -.049785 -5.82345 5.72388 ||4 | .332015 -4.8646 5.52863 ||5 | .24684 -5.38 5.87368 ||6 | -.056198 -4.73051 4.61812 ||7 | -.240842 -3.05441 2.57273 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_blogviews

log_forumvisitors->log_blogvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -.849467 -1.35811 -.340826 ||2 | -.484235 -3.82178 2.85331 ||3 | .098895 -4.09268 4.29047 ||4 | .326926 -3.47924 4.13309 ||5 | .203189 -4.04896 4.45534 ||6 | -.050908 -3.51103 3.40922 ||7 | -.180964 -2.3337 1.97178 |+--------------------------------------------+

82

95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_blogvisitors

log_forumvisitors->log_forumviews

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 0 0 0 ||1 | -1.21867 -1.87221 -.565131 ||2 | -.28974 -2.43079 1.85131 ||3 | .261782 -1.34533 1.86889 ||4 | .315156 -2.10211 2.73243 ||5 | .172187 -2.58454 2.92891 ||6 | .041071 -2.2047 2.28684 ||7 | .038079 -1.96822 2.04438 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_forumviews

log_forumvisitors->log_forumvisitors

+--------------------------------------------+| | (1) (1) (1) || step | irf Lower Upper ||--------+-----------------------------------||0 | 1 1 1 ||1 | -.467681 -.952131 .016769 ||2 | -.012077 -1.6237 1.59954 ||3 | .242194 -1.06071 1.5451 ||4 | .259129 -1.28918 1.80743 ||5 | .15901 -1.48964 1.80766 ||6 | .063641 -1.15512 1.2824 ||7 | .049942 -1.07229 1.17218 |+--------------------------------------------+95% lower and upper bounds reported(1) irfname = order3step7, impulse = log_forumvisitors, and response = log_forumvisitors

5.5 Annexe 5 : Ensemble des ordres retenus

12 c l e a r3 set more of f4 use "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Documents/Dropbox/Pro j e t s/Etudes/

s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Data Resu l t s/Resu l tat_f i n a l . dta"

5 t s s e t t , d a i l y6 drop date78 set mats ize 10000

83

9 //log us ing "/Users/dianebouchacourt/Dropbox/ s emina i r e/times e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/Var_ana l y s i s . l og " ,replace

1011 //Working with l o g s12 fo r each var o f v a r l i s t ∗ {13 gen log_‘var ’=log ( ‘ var ’ )14 }15 drop log_t16 drop in 731718 var log_albumpost log_b logpost log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews

log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads , l a g s (1 )

1920 i r f set "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Documents/Dropbox/Pro j e t s/Etudes/

s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR"212223 // tous l e s o rd re s :2425 i r f create order1 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_forumviews

log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_b logpost )

26 i r f create order2 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_forumviews log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_albumpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_b logpost )

27 i r f create order3 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_forumpostslog_forumthreads log_b logpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_forumviews log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews )

2829 i r f create order4 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_blogv iews

log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_b logpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads )

30 i r f create order5 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_blogv iews log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_albumpost log_b logpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads )

31 i r f create order6 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_b logpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_blogv iews log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews )

3233 i r f create order7 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_blogv iews

log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_b logpost log_albumpost )

34 i r f create order8 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_

84

forumviews log_blogv iews log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_forumpost log_forumthreads log_b logpost log_albumpost )

35 i r f create order9 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumpost log_forumthreadslog_b logpost log_albumpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_

b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_blogv iews log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews )

3637 i r f create order10 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_albumviews

log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_albumpost log_b logpost )

38 i r f create order11 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_albumviews log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_forumpost log_forumthreads log_albumpost log_b logpost )

39 i r f create order12 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumpost log_forumthreads log_albumpost log_b logpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_albumviews log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews )

4041 i r f create order13 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_forumviews

log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_albumpost )

42 i r f create order14 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_forumviews log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_b logpost log_forumpost log_forumthreads log_albumpost )

43 i r f create order15 , step (3 ) order ( log_b logpost log_forumpostlog_forumthreads log_albumpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_forumviews log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews )

4445 i r f create order16 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_albumviews

log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_albumpost log_forumposts log_forumthreads )

46 i r f create order17 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_albumviews log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_b logpost log_albumpost log_forumpost log_forumthreads )

47 i r f create order18 , step (3 ) order ( log_b logpost log_albumpostlog_forumthreads log_forumposts log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_albumviews log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews )

4849 i r f create order19 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_albumviews

log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

50 i r f create order20 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_albumviewslog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_

f o r umv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

85

51 i r f create order21 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_albumpostlog_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

52 i r f create order22 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_albumviewslog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

53 i r f create order23 , step (3 ) order ( log_b logpost log_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

54 i r f create order24 , step (3 ) order ( log_b logpost log_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviewslog_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

5556 i r f create order25 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_

a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreadslog_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

57 i r f create order26 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s)

58 i r f create order27 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_albumpostlog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

59 i r f create order28 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

60 i r f create order29 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_

f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r slog_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

61 i r f create order30 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_

albumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r slog_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

6263 i r f create order31 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_albumpost

log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

64 i r f create order32 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_albumpostlog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_

f o r umv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )65 i r f create order33 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_b logpost

log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_albumpost log_

86

a lbumv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreadslog_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

66 i r f create order34 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_b logpostlog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_albumpostlog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

67 i r f create order35 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_forumpostslog_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_

b logpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

68 i r f create order36 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_forumpostslog_forumthreads log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_

albumpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

6970 i r f create order37 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_

a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r slog_forumposts log_forumthreads log_blogv iews log_

b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )71 i r f create order38 , step (3 ) order ( log_albumviews log_

a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_b logpost log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumpostslog_forumthreads log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

72 i r f create order39 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_albumviewslog_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_blogv iews log_

b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )73 i r f create order40 , step (3 ) order ( log_forumviews log_

f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_blogv iewslog_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s)

74 i r f create order41 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r slog_forumposts log_forumthreads log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s)

75 i r f create order42 , step (3 ) order ( log_blogv iews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r slog_albumpost log_forumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s)

7677 i r f create order43 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_

albumviews log_albumpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviewslog_forumposts log_forumthreads log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

78 i r f create order44 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviews log_albumpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

79 i r f create order45 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_a lbumv i s i t o r slog_albumviews log_albumpost log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews

87

log_b logpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )80 i r f create order46 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_

forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_blogv iews log_b logpost log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviewslog_albumpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

81 i r f create order47 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumviewslog_albumpost log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

82 i r f create order48 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_blogv iews log_b logpost log_albumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumviews log_forumpostslog_forumthreads log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

8384 i r f create order49 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_

albumpost log_albumviews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

85 i r f create order50 , step (3 ) order ( log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_albumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost log_blogv iews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreadslog_forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

86 i r f create order51 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpost log_albumviewslog_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_

forumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )87 i r f create order52 , step (3 ) order ( log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpost

log_blogv iews log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpostlog_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

88 i r f create order53 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r slog_b logpost log_blogv iews log_a lbumv i s i t o r s log_albumpostlog_albumviews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

89 i r f create order54 , step (3 ) order ( log_f o r umv i s i t o r s log_forumposts log_forumthreads log_forumviews log_a lbumv i s i t o r slog_albumpost log_albumviews log_b l o g v i s i t o r s log_b logpostlog_blogv iews log_ed i tov i ews log_e d i t o v i s i t o r s )

909192 f o r v a l u e s i = 1(1) 54 {93 i r f graph i r f , i r f (order ‘ i ’ ) impulse ( l og_albumviews ) byopts (

t i t l e ( order ‘ i ’ impulse log_albumviews ) )94 gr export "/Users/ r e n u c c i f l o r e n t /Documents/Dropbox/Pro j e t s/

Etudes/ s emina i r e/time s e r i e s ( Diane and Florent )/Diane_VAR/IRF_graph/order ‘ i ’_impu l se log_albumviews . png" , replace

95 }

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5.6 Annexe 5 : Ensemble des graphes obtenus

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6 Bibliographie

1. Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance,Dekimpe et al., 2003.

2. Sélection du nombre de retard dans un modèle VAR : conséquenceséventuelles du choix des critères, Claude Deniau, Georges Fiori,Alexandre Mathis, 1992.

3. Applied Econometrics Time Series, Walter Enders , 2004.

4. Effects of Word-of-Mouth Versus Traditional Marketing : Findingsfrom an Internet Social Networking Site, Trusov et al., 2009.

5. Content Contributor Management and Network Effects in a UGC En-vironment, Zhang, Evgeniou, Richard, Padmanabhan, 2012.

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