FX Chauchat : 2010 - 2020, la décennie allemande ?
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Transcript of FX Chauchat : 2010 - 2020, la décennie allemande ?
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8/7/2019 FX Chauchat : 2010 - 2020, la dcennie allemande ?
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2010-2020,une dcennie allemande?Les implications pour lEurope et la
France dun changement de rgimede croissance en Allemagne
by Franois-Xavier Chauchat
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Europes Booms and Busts Since 1989:
A Succession Of Asymmetric Shocks
1989 1990/95 1995/2005 2005/07 2007/09 2010->
Fall of theBerlin Wall
Germany goes bust,the uro era begins,
Eastern Europe enters the EU
German unificationboom; DEM-pegged
economies plunge
Synchronized,
Pan-European upswing
Great financial crisis+ PIGS crisis
Germany leads, very unevengrowth in the rest of
Europe, EMU under test
Asymmetric shock #1 Asymmetric shock #2 Asymmetric shock #3
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1995/2005: une contraction sans prcdent
du secteur de la contruction
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LAllemage a sous-investi
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et sous-consomm pendant 10 ans
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Les mnages allemands ont assaini leur situation
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The End of the German Credit Crunch
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LElargissement lEst (entre autre) a permis un choc de rentabilit
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Dabord les exports, ensuite le reste
1995: Start of a decade of adjustment
(the unification countershock)
2000: Trough in German exports
2005: End of Germany'sunderperformance
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Germanys Currency Is Very Cheap
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The German Domestic Economy Is Clearly Improving
LAll D lE C i S P i B D lHi i M d
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LAllemagne De lEst Connait Son Premier Boom De lHistoire Moderne
Unemployment rate in East Germany
Unemployment rate in California
L B All d S Diff
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Le Boom Allemand Se Diffuse
P i B l CGT di (I)
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Pourquoi Bercy et la CGT vont divorcer (I)
Germany
(good spending control + strong growth)
France
(loose spending control + tax increases)
Franco-German differential
% GDP
P i B t l CGT t di (II)
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Pourquoi Bercy et la CGT vont divorcer (II)
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L k N th & E t F G th i E
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Look North & East For Growth in Europe
The sad PIGS story is not abig hurdle on Europeangrowth.
PIGS= 1700bn. North/Central Europe =
Germany, Netherlands,Scandinavia & Switzerland =5,000bn.
Eastern Europe=800bn.
Despite large imbalances
problem (Hungary, Romania,etc), Eastern Europe isemerging from this crisis at arelatively fast (althoughuneven) rate. The adjustmentstarted much sooner than inthe PIGS, which help explainswhy. And of course thepotential of productivity
growth in this area in muchstronger than in the PIGS