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Transcript of Evaluation of Mitigation / Adaptation policy portfolios ... Estoniآ  GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Green...

  • PPRROOMMIITTHHEEAASS –– 44

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    ((CCoonnttrraacctt NNoo.. 226655118822))

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    MMiittiiggaattiioonn // AAddaappttaattiioonn

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    EEssttoonniiaa

    Author: Dr. Nadežda DEMENTJEVA Tallinn University of Technology

    Co-authors: Dr. Popi KONIDARI, Anna FLESSA M.Sc.

    National and Kapodistrian University of Athens - Energy Policy and Development Centre

    Tallin, 2013

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

    2

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

    3

    This document is part of the relevant report prepared for the FP7 funded project

    “PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing

    mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”, coordinated by Prof. Dimitrios MAVRAKIS,

    Energy Policy and Development Centre (Greece). The whole report contains twelve

    (12) documents for each one of the emerging economies that participate in the

    project: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Moldova,

    Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine.

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

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  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

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    CCOONNTTEENNTTSS

    Contents ____________________________________________________________5

    List of Tables ________________________________________________________5

    List of Figures _______________________________________________________5

    Abbreviations ________________________________________________________7

    Assessment of the scenarios for Estonia, through the multi - criteria method AMS 9

    General comments _______________________________________________________ 9

    Required data ___________________________________________________________ 9

    Assignment of grades____________________________________________________ 10

    Results ________________________________________________________________ 24

    References_____________________________________________________________ 25

    Conclusions ________________________________________________________26

    LLIISSTT OOFF TTAABBLLEESS

    Table 9: Total emissions for the country. ______________________________________________9 Table 10: Emissions per sector for the country. _________________________________________9 Table 11: Other environmental effects for the country under each scenario, ________________10 Table 12: Water use for cooling (Energy sector). _______________________________________10 Table 13: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the policy instruments of the BAU scenario. 12 Table 14: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments of the OPT

    scenario. ___________________________________________________________________14 Table 15: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments of the PES

    scenario. ___________________________________________________________________16 Table 16: Overall cost efficiency for the three scenarios._________________________________18 Table 17: Equity measurement. _____________________________________________________19 Table 18: AMS results for each scenario. _____________________________________________24

    LLIISSTT OOFF FFIIGGUURREESS

    Figure 41: ClimAMS-2012._________________________________________________________10 Figure 42: Environmental performance of the scenarios. ________________________________11 Figure 43: Political acceptability.____________________________________________________20 Figure 44: Feasibility of implementation. _____________________________________________23 Figure 45: Final grades. ___________________________________________________________24

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

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  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

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    AABBBBRREEVVIIAATTIIOONNSS Abbreviation Full name

    AAPA Ambient Air Protection Act

    AC Auxiliary current

    BAU Business As Usual

    CFBC Circulating fluidized bed combustion

    CFL Compact Fluorescent

    CHP Combined Heat and Power

    EE Eesti Energia AS

    EEA European Environmental Agency

    EBRD European Bank of Reconstruction and Development

    EEIC The Estonian Environment Information Centre

    EEK Estonian crown abbreviation

    EMP Electric Mobility Programme

    ENHDP Estonian National Housing Development Plan

    EPBD Energy Performance of Buildings

    EREF European Renewable Energies Federation

    ESDP Electricity Sector Development Plan

    EU European Union

    EU-ETS European Union Emission Trading Scheme

    EV Electric Vehicle

    EWEA European Wind Energy Association

    GHG Greenhouse Gas

    GIS Green Investment Scheme

    GNI Gross National Income

    HELCOM Helsinki Commission

    ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management

    IEA International Energy Agency

    IMF International Monetary Fund

    IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    JI Joint Implementation

    JRC Joint Research Centre

    KP Kyoto Protocol

    LTO Landing/Take-off

    MOE Ministry od Environment

    MoEAC Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications

    MOIEEP Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications

    MOU Memorandum of Understanding

    NAP National Allocation Plan

    NDPUOS National Development Plan for the Utilization of Oil Shale

    NEEP National Energy Efficiency Plan

    NIR National Inventory Report

    NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan

    NRP National Reform Programme

    OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development

    OPT Optimistic

    OWER Official Webpage of the Estonian Republic

    PES Pessimistic

    R&D Research and Development

    RES Renewable Energy Sources

    RES-E Electricity produced from RES

    RMK Estonian State Forest Management Centre

    SP Stability Programme

    SUV Sport utility vehicle

    TSO Transmission Operator System

    TU Tallinn University

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

    8

    UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention oc Climate Change

    VOC Volatile Organic Compounds

    WHO World Health Organization

    WW Water Wikipedia

  • PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research

    needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

    9

    AASSSSEESSSSMMEENNTT OOFF TTHHEE SSCCEENNAARRIIOOSS FFOORR EESSTTOONNIIAA,,

    TTHHRROOUUGGHH TTHHEE MMUULLTTII -- CCRRIITTEERRIIAA MMEETTHHOODD AAMMSS

    GGeenneerraall ccoommmmeennttss The three scenarios have been assessed trough the multi criteria method AMS. This

    method is combines three multi-criteria methods: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi- Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART) (Konidari and Mavrakis, 2007; 2006). AMS is developed for evaluating climate policy instruments (PI) or relevant Policy Mixes (PM) and with suitable modification for evaluating their interactions as well.

    Three criteria are applied in AMS – environmental performance, political acceptability, and feasibility of implementation. Evaluation results for each criterion are reviewed below.

    RReeqquuiirreedd ddaattaa The LEAP model provides the following outcomes for all three scenarios:

    Table 1: Total emissions for the country.

    Total GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq) Scenario

    2000 2020 2050

    BAU 17,197 11,360 31,425

    OPT 17,197 9,180 27,549 PES 17,197 11,273 29,909

    Table 2: Emissions per sector for the country.

    Scenario GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)

    2000 2020 2050

    Households BAU 1,112 1,561 5,064

    OPT 1,112 1,291 4,830 PES 1,112 1,426 4,946 Agriculture BAU 0,084 0,290 0,939

    OPT 0,084 0,290 0,939

    PES 0,084 0,290 0,939

    Other Services BAU 0,031 0,197 0,638