Diapositive 1 - Faculty Directory | Yale School of...
Transcript of Diapositive 1 - Faculty Directory | Yale School of...
Casablanca Stock Market
An Overview
-6,60%
12,20%
-2,20%
6,80%
0,70% 1,00%
6,30%
3,20%
5,50%
-8,00%
-6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
GDP changes (1980 market prices)
Budget deficit
-5,10%
-2,00%
-3,20%
-2,30%
0,90%
-5,90%
-2,60%
-4,30%
-3,50%
-6,00%
-5,00%
-4,00%
-3,00%
-2,00%
-1,00%
0,00%
1,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Inflation
6,10%
3%
1%
2,70%
0,70%
1,90%
0,60%
2,80%
1,20%
0,00%
1,00%
2,00%
3,00%
4,00%
5,00%
6,00%
7,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Historical Background
• CSE founded in 1929• Morocco resort to the World Bank &
IMF• CSE reform in 1993• Privatization program launched in 1993
Moroccan All Share Index (MASI)PER / GDP Growth Rate
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
22 16 13 12 12 16
13,4%-0,30%
8,10% 0,5% 2,5%8,2% 3,8% 5,2%
20
Volume (Billion MAD)Liquidity Ratio
020406080100
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0,5 0,83 2,6 4,68 8,07 8,38 18,04 10,1 10,48 7,4 18%
Capitalization (Billion MAD)Capi/ GDP
0
50
100
150
200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
12% 17% 18% 23% 37% 42% 40% 32% 28% 22% 27%
Asset under M anagem ent (Billion MAD)Equity s take
0
20
40
60
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
26% 15% 13% 9% 4% 5,5%
FDI (Billion MAD)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Private investment Privatization
•1999: GSM License (11 bn MAD)
•2001: Vivendi/Maroc Telecom (22 bn MAD)
•2003: ALTADIS (15 bn MAD)
Foreign Direct Investment
• Weaknesses of The CSE
•Marginalisation of minority shareholders
•Free float estimated at only 15%
•Overdominance of commercial banks
•Quasi-absence of Trading (leverage, short sales)
Control in total capitalization
Ergis & Siger62%
Others38%
• Morocco launched during 2003 an important euro-bond issue worth € 400 millions over a five year period
• The bond issue spread amounted to 215 bp
• The bond issue, contracted without any foreign guarantee and with a favorable risk premium, reflects the confidence of foreign investors on Morocco
• The proceeds of the bond issue financed servicing Morocco’s expensive debt
• S&P improved Morocco status from Neutral to Positive
Macro-economic environment Overview
In the last years, GDP growth was over 3% through the dependency reduction from agriculture.
Inflation is maintained at a low level thanks to economy liberalization “pricing and Free trade”.
Budget deficit was restrained thanks to privatization revenues.
GDP changes (1980 market prices) Inflation
-6,60%
12,20%
-2,20%
6,80%
0,70% 1,00%
6,30%
3,20%
5,50%
-8,00%
-6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
6,10%
3%
1%
2,70%
0,70%
1,90%
0,60%
2,80%
1,20%
0,00%
1,00%
2,00%
3,00%
4,00%
5,00%
6,00%
7,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2002 GDP Break Down
Business & Import Taxes19%
Transportat° & Com.
7%
Publ ic Administrat
15%
Manufac Industries
17%
O ther services
12%Water & Energy
7%
Extractive Industries
2%Real Estate
5%
Agriculture & Fishing
16%
Budget Deficit
-5,10%
-2,00%
-3,20%
-2,30%
0,90%
-5,90%
-2,60%
-4,30%
-3,50%
-6,00%
-5,00%
-4,00%
-3,00%
-2,00%
-1,00%
0,00%
1,00%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003