Deloitte Economics’ Coronavirus Impact Monitor...Source: Deloitte analysis, Dansk Erhverv Sector...

Deloitte Economics’ Coronavirus Impact MonitorIncreased concerns of a second wave of infections as economies begin reopening8th edition, 11 May 2020

Coronavirus Impact Monitor – 11 May 2020 Deloitte Economics © 2020

• Between 1 February 2020 and 10 May 2020, the

number of global confirmed COVID-19 cases rose from

9,800 to about 3.9 million.

• As the number of new cases in Europe show signs of

falling, countries are beginning to take steps to reopen

their societies and economies. The Danish government

has activated Phase II of the reopening to take effect

from 18 May 2020.

• In Denmark, the increase in the number of confirmed

cases has remained relatively low. As of 10 May 2020,

there were 10,319 confirmed cases.

5,000

24 Feb

9,000

0

9 Mar 11 May

2.0

23 Mar

0.0

4 May

4.0

6 Apr 20 Apr

0.5

1.0

1.5

27 Apr

2.5

3.0

4,000

3.5

1,000

2,000

3,000

13 Apr

6,000

16 Mar

7,000

8,000

10,000

11,000

2 Mar 30 Mar

10,319

3.9

Source: World Health Organisation (WHO), The Danish Health Authority (Sundhedsstyrelsen)

Coronavirus outbreak

The number of new daily confirmed cases is slowing in Denmark and in Europe as countries begin to take steps to reopen their societies and economies

• The bottom chart shows the daily number of deaths in

the world, the United States and Denmark. There are

currently around 4,000-5,000 daily deaths in the

world, lower than the 6,000-7,000 peak in mid-April.

• In Denmark, the 7-day average daily death rate has

been falling since its peak at the beginning of April

2020.

• In Denmark, there were 40 patients in intensive care

as of 10 May 2020, of which 33 patients were in

respirators. This number has fallen steadily since the

peak at around 100-150 at the beginning of April

2020. The Danish Health Authority has ~925

respirators available for COVID-19 patients.

# c

onfirm

ed c

ases g

lobally

(millions)

Confirmed COVID-19 cases: World and Denmark

# c

onfirm

ed c

ases in

Denm

ark

7-day rolling average confirmed daily COVID-19 deaths: World, US and Denmark

# D

aily d

eath

s

World US Denmark

As of

10 May 2020

Denmark (RHS) World (LHS)

1 Mar 1 Apr

0

1 May

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1 Jun

7,000

200

0

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2,000

1,800

1,600

2,200

1 Jun1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun


Note:

Source:

1) Refinitiv European sectoral price indices measured by Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters)

Thomson Reuters Eikon

Impact on financial markets

COVID-19 impact on equity markets has been most severe on the transport and energy sectors, while medical and pharmaceutical stocks have largely recovered

• The outlook for increased public expenditure and central

bank interventions to ease liquidity strains has

supported markets.

• European equity indices suffered material losses

following the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe, but have to

some extent recovered from the bottom reached in mid-

March 2020.

• The Transport industry in particular, including airlines,

continues to be severely affected by the virus and

related travel restrictions. The Refinitiv Europe Transport

Price Index has been down by some 39% since the end

of January 2020, driven by a material decline in

volumes.

• The European energy sector, including oil and gas

companies, has lost more than 32% since the end of

January 2020. Declining energy prices have applied

downward pressure on energy equities.

• Financials, including banks, have also experienced value

destruction. Market concerns about increased credit

losses and funding squeezes are likely drivers.

• Danish short-term rates have risen to ~0% on the

outlook for increased central bank interventions. After a

sharp increase in March 2020, longer-term rates have

fallen back.

• Equity market volatility and implied default probabilities

remain elevated, ref. page 26 in the appendix.

50

40

60

70

80

90

100

110

13 Jan30 Dec 27 Jan 10 Feb 24 Feb 9 Mar 23 Mar 6 Apr 20 Apr 4 May 18 May

Equity markets: Sectoral indices in Europe1

Secto

ral in

dic

es

(2 J

an 2

020 =

100)

Major outbreak in Europe

0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.4

10Y DKK Swap rates 6M CIBOR

% r

ate

s

Interest rates: 10Y Interest rate (swap) and 6M interest rates (CIBOR)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.3)

27 Jan 10 Feb 24 Feb 23 Mar 4 May6 Apr 20 Apr9 Mar

(0.4)

Transport TechnologyFinancialMedical & PharmaceuticalsEnergy

13 Jan

30 Dec 19

30 Dec 19 18 May


Note:

Source:

1) Deloitte surveys conducted on 12, 19, 26 March, 2, 9, 16, 23, 30 April and 7 May 2020, involving about 2,000 colleagues and clients.

Deloitte surveys, IMF World Economic outlook (October 2019) for pre-COVID-19 figures; IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2020) for revised forecasts

Economic Outlook: IMF and Deloitte survey

Q1 GDP contracted sharply across Europe and US

Economic growth projections• The “sudden stop” in the global economy, caused by the COVID-19

pandemic, has translated into significant downward revisions of

economic growth projections worldwide. According to IMF’s latest

predictions:

− The global economy is expected to contract by 3.0% in 2020

instead of the initially estimated 3.4% growth. This 3.0%

contraction in global GDP is much worse than the 0.1%

contraction experienced during the 2009 financial crisis, ref.

page 23 in the appendix.

− Danish GDP is projected to contract by 6.5% in 2020

compared to the pre-COVID-19 growth estimate of 1.9%. GDP

in Denmark shrank by 4.9% in 2009. The median forecast of

Danish 2020 GDP growth is -4.7% according to our survey of

professional forecasters, ref. page 24 in the appendix.

• Consistent with this, the eurozone economy contracted by 3.8% in

Q1 according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat. The French

and Spanish economies shrank by 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively, in

Q1, a sign of the extensive havoc caused by measures imposed to

curb the coronavirus’ spread. In the United States, GDP shrank at

an annualised rate of 4.8% in Q1.

• Deloitte’s latest survey among ~ 2,000 colleagues and clients from

all over the world on 7 May 2020 reveals that the majority of

participants continues to expect an economic rebound first in

2021. This appears to be aligned with IMF’s expectations of a 2021

rebound.

(3.0% )

World

(7.5% )

Denmark

5.8%

Eurozone

3.4%

1.4%

4.7%

1.9%

(6.5% )

6.0%

2020 forecast pre COVID-19

Revised 2020 forecast post-COVID-19

Revised 2021 forecast post-COVID-19

Deloitte survey1: When do you think activity will rebound in your economy?

19 Mar 2 Apr

60%

77%

23%

12 Mar

40%

2021

64%

17%

36%

72%

26 Mar

62%

39%

83%

9 Apr

37%

7 May

33%

67%

16 Apr

28%

23 Apr

41%

59%

30 Apr

2020

63%


Note:

Source:

1) This 51st quarterly survey took place between 8-22 April 2020 and 104 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 23 FTSE-100 companies and the CFOs of 34 FTSE-250 companies

Deloitte UK CFO Survey

UK CFO survey results

UK CFOs’ corporate priorities have become defensive and their business optimism fell sharply in Q1 2020

• Deloitte is surveying CFOs of the UK’s largest businesses

quarterly1:

− CFOs are placing more focus on defensive strategies

than at any time since we began asking the question

in 2010 as they face the huge economic shock

wrought by COVID-19.

− Defensive strategies – reducing costs, increasing

cash flow and reducing leverage – remain the top

priorities for CFOs, but their focus on these

strategies has sharpened significantly compared to

the previous quarter.

− The COVID-19 shock triggered the largest decrease

in business confidence in the 12-year history of the

survey (not shown), taking it to its lowest ever level.

− 83% of CFOs are somewhat or significantly less

optimistic than three months ago.

Increasing cash flow

Reducing costs

Reducing leverage

Introducing new products/servicesor expanding into new markets

Raising dividends or share buybacks

13%Disposing of assets

36%

Increasing capital expenditure

Expanding by acquisition

22%

76%50%

68%45%

41%19%

17%

8%

6%17%

2%12%

0%

2019 Q42020 Q1

Corporate priorities: % of CFOs who rated the following as a strong priority for their business over the next 12 months

Business optimism: Net balance of CFOs who are more optimistic about the financial prospects for their business than three months ago

(59%)

2012Q1

2011Q1

2008Q1

2020Q1

(77%)

2010Q1

2009Q1

44%

2013Q1

(45%)

35%

2014Q1

2015Q1

45%

2016Q1

(70%)

2017Q1

2018Q1

2019Q1

https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html


Sources:

In some countries, including Denmark, the aid packages also include credit measures like state-guaranteed loans.

Danske Bank, Deloitte Covid-19 portal as of 5 May 2020

Government support

Massive state aid packages are launched to counter economic fallout from COVID-19

• The various lock-down measures in response to COVID-

19 have halted economic activity in certain sectors and

harshly disrupted others. The resulting job losses and

bankruptcies are likely to crate major economic strains

for millions in Europe and worldwide.

• Gigantic state aid packages have been launched across

the world to counter the impact of the economic crisis.

• EU finance ministers agreed on a EUR540bn (3.5% of EU

GDP) emergency support package for countries hit by

the coronavirus. The measures aim to provide safety

nets for workers, businesses and sovereigns.

• As these state aid packages are launched, governments

sharply increase debts to finance the increased spending

levels. On this background, the questions about the

following issues have started start to emerge:

− the sustainability of government debt funding, and

− impact on inflation from sharp increases in

government spending.

France

Greece

EU

Canada

New Zealand

Austria

Finland

2%

5%

22%

China

Denmark

Germany

Italy

Japan 20%

Norway

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

17%

The Netherlands

2%

8%

UK

USA

10%

9%

6%

6%

1%

4%

17%

10%

21%

4%

4%

12%

21%

13%

13%

3%

4%

7%

10%

State aid packages relative to GDP

FiscalCredit


Consumer• Consumers’ lack of spending impacts retail while tourism is kept

down by restrictions.

Energy & Resources• Coronavirus impacts short-term prices, but prices are expected to

rebound in 2021.

Financial Services• The anticipated recession related to the Coronavirus will have a

large impact on the sector.

Industrials• The European auto industry has experienced a production loss of

~2.2 million vehicles.

Life Science & Health Care (LSHC)• Swift recovery of LSHC sector with listed companies trading above

pre-corona levels.

Real Estate• The full impact of COVID-19 is yet to be seen.

Technology, Media & Telco (TMT)• TMT sectors have shown relative resilience to COVID-19 as the

world has gone digital.

Transport• Transport industry experienced sharp decline in activity – equity

market pricing a recovery.

We refer to pages 10-18 for in-depth coverage of developments in the sectors above

Coronavirus heatmap

Deloitte Economics’ view on the short-term outlook across selected sectors in Denmark

Source: Deloitte analysis, Dansk Erhverv

Sector

Denmark

Short-term Outlook

Financial Services High impact Moderate recovery

Consumer Slow recoveryHigh impact

Transport High impact Slow recovery

Technology,

Media & TelcoModerate impact Moderate recovery

Real Estate High impact Moderate recovery

Energy & Resources High impact Moderate recovery

Life Science &

Health Care Neutral/Low impact Growth opportunities

Industrials High impact Moderate recovery


Key messages

Economic activity has slowly begun to rebound, but the outlook remains dark

• In Denmark, the increase in the number of confirmed cases seems to be slowing. As of 10 May 2020 there were 10,319 confirmed cases. The reopening

of the society has not been accompanied by a significant increase in confirmed cases.

• The COVID-19 crisis has caused dramatic supply and demand shocks in the world economy, and these shocks are inevitably causing major disruptions

to trade. Global trade volumes are depressed, and the transport sector is facing significant uncertainty.

• Q1 GDP contracted sharply across Europe and US and the unemployment rates have sky-rocketed. More than 30 million Americans have claimed

unemployment insurance since mid-March 2020 pushing unemployment to levels not observed since the Great Depression. Projections of GDP growth

rates reveals a significant contraction of the world economy in 2020.

• Governments all over the world have introduced major aid packages, which, including credit measures, amount to two-digit percentages of GDP.

• The COVID-19 crisis is entering into a new phase as lockdown restrictions are being lifted in most Western countries. Restrictions on the Danish

economy are gradually being lifted. Schools, day care institutions and certain liberal professions have been opened for a couple of weeks. Today the

retail sector and malls reopen as the second phase begins.

• As economies start to open up, concerns arise around a second wave of infections. In Germany, health authorities estimated during the weekend that

the so-called reproduction rate had increased to 1.1 after being 0.65 on Wednesday. The rise comes after easing restrictions. A number above 1 means

that the virus is increasing again as opposed to dying out. China and South Korea have seen an increase in new cases over the weekend. Countries incl.

India, Russia, Brazil Mexico and Nigeria and South Africa are still struggling to reach a peak in new infections.

• Deloitte Economics will continue monitoring the impact of the coronavirus in Denmark and globally. Find our updates here

Disclaimer: The information in this document is intended for knowledge sharing only.

For questions on the contents of this report, please contact:

Majbritt Skov

Director, Head of Deloitte Economics

Mobile: +45 30 93 54 71

[email protected]

Peter Lildholdt

Assistant Director

Mobile: +45 40 35 25 36

[email protected]

Tinus Bang Christensen

Partner

Mobile: +45 30 93 44 63

[email protected]

https://www2.deloitte.com/dk/da/pages/covid-19/covid-19-oekonomisk-udsyn.html


Industry outlook

Consumer

Energy & Resources

Financial Services

Life Science & Health Care

Public

Technology, Media & Telco (TMT)

Transport

Industrials

Real Estate

Page 10

Page 11

Page 12

Page 13

Page 14

Page 15

Page 16

Page 18

Page 17

Coronavirus impact monitor – 11 May 2020 Deloitte Economics © 2020

Consumers’ financial concerns keeps confidence down

− 31% of consumers are concerned about making upcoming payments

while 47% are delaying large purchases.

− Employment fear fuels worry regarding financial situation with 41% of

consumers concerned about losing their jobs.

− Consumers expect to spend more on groceries and household goods

over the next four weeks.

Recovery of tourism remains uncertain

− 100% of global travel destinations have restrictions making tourism

one of the most affected sectors by COVID-19.

− Updated EU estimates expects revenue to drop 50% for hotels and

restaurants, 70% for tour operators and 90% for cruises and airlines.

− Current EU tourism industry, which employs 27 million people directly

and indirectly, is estimated to be losing 1bn EUR per month.

Note:

Sources:

1) MSCI World Retailing Index; 2) MSCI World Consumer Services Index; 3) MSCI Consumer Staples Index; 4) Based on OECD – Europe region

Capital IQ; MSCI; European Parliament; Deloitte State of the Consumer Tracker

Industry outlook: Consumer

Consumers’ lack of spending impacts retail while tourism is kept down by restrictions

Retail index has moved from index 95.3 to 93.4.

Hospitality index has moved from index 84.1 to 80.0.

Consumer index has moved from index 94.4 to 91.7.

Highlights from the industry (as of 6 May)

Trading multiples and economic outlook (as of 6 May)

13.1x

10y avg. 5y avg.

11.6x

3y avg.

13.8x

Index: MSCI World Retailing Index (top 10 companies)

Jan 1, 2020 Current

13.2x17.0x

-3.8x

Historical averages

(EV/FY0 EBITDA)

Coronavirus impact

(EV/FY0 EBITDA)

As of March 2020, the consumer confidence index4 was 99.93 indicating a

slightly doubtful attitude towards the future economic development, possibly

resulting in higher savings and less consumption among consumers.

99.93

97

99

101

Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Mar-20

Consumer confidence index

Based on top 10

companies

1 2 3

Indexed s

hare

price

80.0

85.1

91.7

93.4

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

26 Dec 19 26 Jan 20 26 Feb 20 26 Mar 20 26 Apr 20

Retail Hospitality Consumer MSCI World

ConsumerFinancial Services

Energy & Resources


Public TMT TransportIndustrials Real Estate


Hydropower generation

− Prior to the corona crisis, electricity prices were already pressured in

the Nordics due to a warm winter, which increased the generation

capacity of Norwegian hydropower plants.

− Further, the mild winter decreased demand for electricity.

Lockdown affects demand

− The coronavirus lockdown has negatively impacted the demand of

both public institutions, private individuals and corporations.

Carbon market prices

− Lower emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses has led to a

decrease in carbon prices.

− Coal becomes cheaper, lowering overall prices, as coal is marginally

price setting. This creates a self-enforcing effect, which drives down

prices even further.

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

Industry outlook: Energy & Resources

Coronavirus impacts short-term prices but prices are expected to rebound in 2021

The mild winter put pressure on Nordic electricity prices prior to corona crisis.

Electricity demand has decreased marginally due to coronavirus lockdown.

Significant drop in carbon emissions, resulting in lower prices.


As the effects described above are temporary, and are the result of the

current lockdowns and restrictions on travel, we expect an increase in

prices once the restrictions are lifted.

Although the short-term impact on electricity producers are significant we

expect prices to rebound in 2021. This is supported by significantly larger

price drops in electricity futures prices in the short-term compared to the

long-term

Economic outlook

1 Feb 20

100

1 Mar 20

70

1 Jan 20 1 Apr 20 1 May 20 1 Jun 20

20

30

40

50

60

80

90

110

Natural gas TTF, spot Coal API2, spot Nordic electricity future, Q3-20

Selected futures

2635 33

25

922 23 19

Nordic power, FY-21Nordic power, Q4-20Nordic power, Q3-20 EUA, Jun-20

-63.3%

-39.1% -30.5%-21.2%

Jan 1, 2020 May 8, 2020


Energy & Resources




Banks and consumer finance

− As a result of the GFC, capital levels and controls are more robust reducing the impact of the impending recession. However, IFRS 9 will result in an increase in provisions for macroeconomic assumptions, loan forbearance and default payments.

− Due to Government schemes, ramifications of loan performance may not be felt until post summer.

Insurance

− Claims volume and handling expenses are likely to impact profitability for insurers, albeit claims have reduced for some lines (eg Motor).

Asset Managers

− AuM has reduced especially for funds with a high equity to fixed income asset ratio which will negatively impact profitability. Risk exists around any guaranteed pension schemes.

− Opportunities may exist for those who can successfully deploy a non-contact distribution network.

Source

1) Indices are from Stoxx Europe 600 Financial Services and MSCI World 2) DCA: Debt Collection Agencies 3) P/BV is measured as average of Nordic Insurers, banks, and DCA

S&P Capital IQ

Industry outlook: Financial Services

The anticipated recession will have a large impact on the sector

The impact of decreasing bank base rates, a fear of an increase in customer

defaults, and turmoil in the equity markets has negatively impacted valuation in the

first quarter of 2020. Q1 results will provide further details.

The slow re-opening of European countries has provided optimism to the markets,

but the risk of the crisis drawing out increases the likelihood of market corrections.


Some of the economic issues will play out over the coming months. In particular, the recovery of forborne loans following the re-commencement of trading and the implications of claims experience for insurers.

There is a likelihood of some market consolidation certainly in the banking sector where smaller lenders have higher cost-to-income ratios and suffer from increases in provisions. In addition, asset managers who have suffered from revenue falls as a result of the decrease in AuM. A measured response to trading conditions is important for each FS sub-sector.

Trading multiples and economic outlook

40

90

50

60

70

80

100

110

120

30

3/26/202/25/201/9/20 1/24/20 2/10/20 3/11/20 4/14/20 4/28/20

Banking

Consumer Finance DCA

Insurance European AM

MSCI World

Index: S&P Capital IQ

Jan 1, 2020

1.2x

1.7x

Current

-0.5x

Coronavirus impact (P/BV)

80

77

56

43

77

Nordic Insurers

Nordic DCAs

Nordic Banks

European AM

Nordic Consumer Finance

28-04-2020

Market capitalization (1 Jan = index 100)

2

3

[55.7]

[43.4]

[76,9]

[79.9]

[76.8]

1

[84.9]


Energy & Resources



Note:


Note:

Source:

1) Data as of 7 May 2020; 2) Passenger cars, trucks, vans, buses, and coaches; 3) Data as of 20 April 2020 covering employees directly employed by car, truck, van and bus manufacturers

Capital IQ; MSCI World Indices; European Automobile Manufacturers Association; Reuters

Industry outlook: Industrials

The European auto industry has experienced a production loss of ~2.2 million vehicles

Especially industrial companies’ share prices have realised a minor set-back during

the last week – down by ~5%.

Share prices have primarily been driven by earnings report and President Trump’s

threats to relight the trade war between the United States and China.

Share price development year-to-date

Trading multiples

1 Apr 201 Jan 20 1 Mar 201 Feb 20 1 May 20 1 Jun 20

50

60

70

80

90

110

100

Industrials MSCI WorldMaterials Automotive

10y avg. 5y avg. 3y avg.

11.6x 13.1x 14.2x11.8x

Jan 1, 20 Current

13.8x

-2.0x

MSCI World Industrials Index

Historical averages

(EV/EBITDA)

Coronavirus impact

(EV/EBITDA)

85.184.3

92.4

69.3

5y avg.

11.7x11.5x

10y avg.

10.3x

3y avg. Jan 1, 20 Current

11.8x 13.1x

+1.3x

MSCI World Materials Index

Historical averages

(EV/EBITDA)

Coronavirus impact

(EV/EBITDA)

MSCI World Automotive Index

Historical averages

(EV/EBITDA)

Coronavirus impact

(EV/EBITDA)

10.2x

5y avg.10y avg. 3y avg.

9.9x9.8x 11.1x

Jan 1, 20 Current

9.8x

-1.3x

COVID-19 has significantly impacted European auto industry

COVID-19 has resulted in closed factories in the EU and the United Kingdom,

leading to a production loss of ~2.2 million motor vehicles, affecting more than 1.1

million manufacturing workers.

Factories in the EU and the United Kingdom have on average been closed for 28

working days.

There are positive signals for the industry, as several car manufacturers, including

Volkswagen Group, have restarted production at certain factories across Europe.

Germany

Spain

France

The UK

Czech Republic

602,973

410,796

255,674

188,894

143,981

Total EU + UK 2,195,430

Country Production lost1,2 Downtime1 Employees affected3

29 working days

31 working days

32 working days

32 working days

25 working days

28 working days

568,518

60,000

90,000

65,455

45,000

1,138,536


Energy & Resources




Collaboration is the new normal

− COVID-19 has further accelerated an ongoing trend of collaboration

among LSHC companies, scientists, and public institutions.

− Examples of recent private collaborations are:

− Bavarian Nordic and AdaptVac for COVID-19 vaccine.

− Consortium of 15 large life science companies, including Novartis,

Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer, to share knowledge

Race for COVID-19 vaccine or other treatment

− The antiviral, Remdesivir, has shown promising results in preliminary

trials with improved recovery time and potential survival benefits.

− Race for developing a vaccine is still ongoing with a horizon of 12-18

months.

− According to Milken Institute, 123 candidate vaccines and 203 different

treatment variations are being developed as of 7 May 2020.

Note:

Sources:

1) MSCI World Health Care Index (top 10 constituents), 2) MSCI World Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences Index (top 10 constituents)

Milken Institute, Deloitte Health Forward Blog, Capital IQ, NIH

Industry outlook: Life Science and Health Cre (LSHC)

Swift recovery of LSHC sector with listed companies trading above pre-corona levels

Significant recovery in both Health Care and Life Science in recent weeks continues.

Life Science trade above pre-corona levels.

Significantly faster recovery and better performance among Life Science and Health

Care companies compared to the general market.


LSHC companies trade above pre-corona levels.

Countries are reopening, and many health care systems are again

focusing on other illnesses and treatments than COVID-19.

Rapid recovery expected for LSHC companies unrelated to COVID-19

treatments as demand for non-essential medications and equipment rises.

Continued high demand for COVID-19 related therapies and equipment.


85.1

99.2

10y avg.

14.1x

5y avg. 3y avg.

11.7x13.7x

Index: MSCI World Health Care Index

Jan 1, 2020

14.2x

Current

14.2x

0.0x

Historical averages (EV/EBITDA FY0) Coronavirus impact (EV/EBITDA FY0)

103.6

1 2

Indexed share price development

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

22 Dec 19 22 Jan 20 22 Feb 20 22 Mar 20 22 Apr 20

Healthcare Life science MSCI World


Energy & Resources




The recover phase has begun

− Government’s focus is now to move society towards normality and at

the same time avoid an increase in the reproduction rate.

− Top economists have contributed with recommendations about how to

reopen the economy in the most cost-effective way.

− Priority is to increase testing. 11 new test centres opened in the end

of April.

Back to normal

− The government has begun to reopen society. Day care institutions

and schools and many liberal professions have reopened in phase 1.

In phase 2, starting from today, the retail sector and malls are allowed

to open. Also, the restrictions considering social distancing are eased.

Implementation of aid packages

− Provision of emergency financial support for individuals and

businesses is a new and large assignment in the economic ministries.

Source: Deloitte Insights, Government’s response to COVID-19. From pandemic crisis to a better future, April 2020

Industry outlook: Public

The reopening of society has intensified

Consumer


Aid packages and focus on supporting the private sector through earlier start-up of planned investment and prepayment of suppliers are expected to ease the negative

impact on the economy.

The severe and long-lasting financial and economic impacts of the pandemic depend on the effects of the aid packages and the strategy for the reopening of society.

Aid packages may challenge government spending in the long term.

Digitalisation in the public sector may be boosted as the crisis has reinforced virtual ways of working.

Economic outlook

A timeline for COVID-19 government response

Financial Services

Energy & Resources




Retail

− We believe there is a long-term impact on retail with accelerated shift

to online trade. As such new occupiers and business models need to be

developed by landlords

− Despite the reopening of many cafés and restaurants, there will only

be capacity for a limited number of guest. Creativity is required

− At some point the government can no more support the hospitality and

leisure sector, which will have significant impact for both landlords and

tenants.

• Residential

− According to FB Gruppen the demand for project housing is down by

20% and the main reason is the financial institutions tightening the

financing terms as explained in a previous version of our Corona

Monitor

− In a brand new forecast from Nybolig, prices on residentials will fall by

3-6% in 2020. Not until end of 2022 will we reach pre-covid prices

again

1) Based on Collier International, Patrizia AG, Agate Ejendomme, Jeudan A/S, and Park Street Nordicom

Finans Danmark, Thomson Reuters Eikon, Capital IQ

Industry outlook: Real Estate

Why can't the financial markets see the mess of the real economy?

Real estate share prices are still to recover fully. However, interest rates decrease

slightly, perhaps fuelled by renewed appetite from investors.

We still believe that the full impact of COVID-19 is yet to be seen. Despite kick-off

of the reopening phase in most countries, support from banks and aid packages are

still essential. But at some point that will have to end...

Consumer


We still expect a significant reduction in M&A activity for all asset classes, except

logistics (positive effect). No changes to outlook from last week.

Currently, price multiples are not impacted from COVID-19 significantly but forced

transactions due to liquidity will probably be at lower multiples.

As of the last couple of weeks, we expect decreasing prices but even lower

multiples as short-term income will be impacted severely, despite the current

optimism in the financial markets


5y avg.10y avg.

27.6x

3y avg.

28.6x25.4x

Historical averages (EV/EBITDA) Coronavirus impact (EV/EBITDA)

Index: Custom weighted average index1

Note:

Source:

Financial Services

Energy & Resources



0.5%

0.8%

1.0%

1.3%

1.5%

1.8%

2.0%

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

01 Jan 15 Jan 29 Jan 12 Feb 26 Feb 11 Mar 25 Mar 08 Apr 22 Apr

Inte

rest ra

te

Sto

ck p

rice index

(2 J

an 2

02

0 =

10

0)

STOXX 600 Real Estate Index Danish long-term mortgage rates

1 Jan 2020 Current

29.0x30.6x

-1.6x


TMT perceived as a defensive sector, which has less to lose from COVID-19

Telecom: Spend among consumers is often within a contract; demand is

up; need is not discretionary (new cars) or constrained (leisure).

Media & Entertainment: The financial impact varies across sub-sectors.

Media consumption up (e.g., Netflix, Disney+), but willingness/ability to

pay may be constrained as the economic outlook exacerbates. Events

(consumer, business) mostly heavily restricted. Cinemas, theatres,

museums mostly closed. TV and movie production mostly halted. Theme

parks mostly closed.

Technology: Some segments (e.g., robotics, communication software)

see record demand; digital transformation being accelerated; companies

catering to SMEs may suffer from customer liquidity.

Note:

Source:

1) MSCI World industry indices used, 01-01-2020 = index 100, 2) In EMEA and selected Asian countries physical games sales are up 63% according to GamesIndustry.biz

S&P Capital IQ (April 2020), Forrester Research (March 2020)

Industry outlook: TMT

TMT sectors have shown relative resilient to COVID-19 as the world have gone digital

TMT companies are trading above the overall equity market.

Media and Entertainment quickly recovered after the shockwave on the stock

market – as people stay home, the entertainment market are making records2


Forrester has revised its IT spending forecast downward with a best case

scenario where the global tech market growth slowing to ~2% in 2020.

If a full-fledged recession hits, there is a 50% probability that global tech

markets will decline by 2% or more in 2020.

Software spending is the subsector expected to show highest growth,

while computer equipment and IT consulting and systems integration

services spending are expected to show weaker growth.


1 Feb 201 Jan 20 1 Apr 20

90

1 Mar 20 1 May 20

60

70

80

100

110

120

98

85

21.1x


24.0x

16.1x

Index: MSCI World Information Technology

Jan 1, 2020 Current

26.0x28.0x

-2.0x

Historical averages (EV/EBITDA) Coronavirus impact (EV/EBITDA)

106106

Information Technology1 MSCI WorldMedia and EntertainmentCommunication Services


Energy & Resources




500

700

900

1100

1 11 21 31 41 51 61

Note:

Source:

1) A.P. Møller-Mærsk, D/S Norden, DFDS, DSV Panalpina, NTG, TORM, 2) Lowest YTD is 4.6x on March 20th

Capital IQ, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Forbes, IHS Markit

Industry outlook: Transport

Transport industry experienced sharp decline in activity – equity market pricing a recovery

Trading multiples and economic outlook (as of 29 April)

Transportation indices have largely followed the total market.

Transport companies have picked up pace from the recent correction, much due to

the accelerated conversion from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce.

Transportation stocks indicate belief in the market’s recovery

− The rapid spread of COVID-19 has had a major impact on global goods

transport, with ripple effects from the shortfall in demand for goods

from China.

− The recent surge in stock prices since the low point in mid-March 2020

indicates an expectation for a recovering demand global trade.

Accelerated conversion to e-commerce to aid in recovery

− As of mid-April 2020, US retailers’ online YoY revenue growth was

68%, substantiated by 146% YoY growth in the number of online

retail orders.

− A big rush on freight capacity and the subsequent increase in freight

rates are expected, as demand recovers and companies are trying to

get their products on the water.

− This could entail space and capacity constraints for shippers, resulting

in an opportunity for air cargo.


7.6x7.1x 7.5x

Historical averages

(EV/FY1 EBITDA)

7.4x

Last close 2019

6.6x

Current

-0.8x

Coronavirus impact2

(EV/FY1 EBITDA)

Danish listed transport companies1

91.184.9

93.0

6065707580859095

100105110115120

Apr 19 Jun 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Apr 20

MSCI World MSCI Transportation Danish Transportation Index

2020

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is down 19.0% YTD to

829 from its high 1023 in week 1, however up 9.5% YoY.

2019

Consumer

Highlights from the industry (as of 29 April)

Financial Services

Energy & Resources




Industry outlook: Deloitte contacts

How Deloitte can help you

• Please use the contact details opposite to get in touch

with our Financial Advisory industry group leaders and

find out how we can assist you.

• We are well-positioned to assist in a range of tasks,

such as those below.

Mads Damborg

Partner

Email: [email protected]

Mobile: +45 30 93 54 81

Consumer

Troels Ellemose Lorentzen

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 56 90

Energy & Resources

Mads Damborg

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 54 81


Kasper Svold Maagaard

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 54 54

TMT

Tinus Bang Christensen

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 44 63

Real Estate

Financial Services

Rikke Beckmann Danielsen

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 56 92

Government & Public Services

Niels Stoustrup

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 59 15

Industrials

State aid packages

Liquidity scenario analysis

Debt covenant advice and financing

Business restructuring and M&A

Bankable business plan development

Stakeholder management and process control

Impact assessment

Economic modelling and forecasting

Focus areas

Mike Robinson

Partner


Mobile: +45 30 93 00 03


Danish and European economic outlook

European corporate earnings expectations

Global GDP forecasts

Danish 2020 GDP expectations

Deloitte Government Response Portal

European market volatility and credit default probability

Appendices

Page 21

Page 22

Page 23

Page 24

Page 25

Page 26

Aid packages Page 27


Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markit Economics, Statistics Denmark, Eurostat

Economic outlook

Latest indicators point to sharp economic slowdown in Denmark and across the Eurozone

• Danish consumer confidence for April 2020, based on

survey data collected from 1-19 April 2020, declined to

-11.9, down from 0.4 in March 2020.

• The decline in consumer confidence is primarily driven

by deteriorating economic conditions in Denmark, but

the propensity to consume has also declined markedly.

• The latest reading on Danish consumer confidence does

point to a significant slowdown in consumer spending,

even if the past link between consumer confidence and

growth in consumer spending is not perfect.

Danish consumer confidence and YoY consumer spending growth

• The preliminary read on Eurozone PMI, measuring

business sentiment across the Eurozone, plummeted to

an all-time low of 13.5 in April 2020, down from a prior

record low of 29.7 in March 2020. This indicates by far

the largest collapse in European GDP growth recorded

in over two decades of survey data collection. By

comparison, the lowest reading seen during the global

financial crisis was 36.2, reached in February 2008.

• Looking into the details of the survey responses, it

appears that the service sector bore the brunt of the

impact from the lockdown measures. However,

manufacturing also saw a record fall. Supply chain

delays hit the highest ever reported.

Eurozone PMI composite and YoY GDP growth

(8%)

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

-

2%

4%

6%

8%

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Consum

er s

pendin

g, c

hange Y

oY

Consum

er confidence, in

dex

Danish consumer spending, change YoY (RHS) Danish consumer confidence

(7%)

(5%)

(3%)

(1%)

1%

3%

5%

7%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Euro

zone G

DP, c

hange Y

oY

PM

I C

om

posit

e

Eurozone GDP, change YoY (RHS) Eurozone PMI Composite


Note:

Source:

1) Based on analyst estimates for S&P Europe 350 Index constituent companies

S&P Capital IQ

Corporate earnings expectations

Corporate earnings expectations have been severely curtailed since the beginning of the outbreak

• The selloff in European equity markets, triggered by the

COVID-19 pandemic and the associated economic

slowdown, differs across sectors, ref. page 3.

• To shed light on the underlying drivers of this selloff

across sectors, the chart on the right displays changes

in expectations of stock analysts. In particular, the

chart shows how stock analysts have downgraded

consensus expectations of net income across sectors

and time:

− Energy, incl. oil and gas companies, saw its net

income estimates being downgraded by 40%-70%

in 2020-2021, likely due to the sharp declines in oil

and gas prices.

− Consumer discretionary, Financials, and

Transportation are also expected to be severely

affected. Their net income estimates for 2020 are,

on average, more than 30% below pre-crisis

estimates.

− Health Care and Real Estate are expected to

weather the storm relatively well, both in the short

(2020) and long (2023) term.

Change in net income consensus estimates between 31 January 2020 and 8 May 20201

(80%) (70%) (60%) (50%) (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) - 10%

Food & staples retailing

Real estate

Health care

Utilities

Communication services

Other consumer staples

Information Technology

Materials

Industrials

Transportation

Financials

Consumer discretionary

Energy

2020 2021 2022 2023


Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (April 2020)

GDP forecasts

World Economic Outlook: GDP growth projections for Denmark, Eurozone and World

• IMF is projecting the global economy to contract by

3% in 2020, far worse than the -0.1% growth

experienced during the 2009 financial crisis. The

economic growth forecasts from the IMF assume that

the COVID-19 pandemic fades in the second half of

2020 and containment efforts can be unwound. The

disruptions are assumed to be concentrated mostly in

the second quarter of 2020 for almost all countries,

with a gradual recovery thereafter, as it takes some

time for production to ramp up after the shock.

• The global economy is projected to rebound in 2021,

growing at 5.8% as economic activity normalises,

helped by policy support. In comparison, global growth

rebounded to 5.4% in 2010 from -0.1% in 2009.

• It is stressed that the 2021 rebound depends critically

on the pandemic fading in the second half of 2020,

allowing containment efforts to be gradually scaled

back and restoring consumer and investor confidence.

(4 .9%) (6.5%)

6.0%

(10%)

(5%)

-

5%

10%

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Denmark: GDP growth

Historical Forecast

(0.1%)

(3.0%)

5.8%

(10%)

(5%)

-

5%

10%

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

World: GDP growth

Historical Forecast

(4 .5%)(7 .5%)

4.7%

(10%)

(5%)

-

5%

10%

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Eurozone: GDP growth

Historical Forecast


Source: IMF, Danish Central Bank, Danish Ministry of Finance, DØRS, Confederation of Danish Industry, Danske Bank, Nordea

Danish 2020 GDP expectations

Danish GDP projected to contract by 4.7% according to our survey of forecasters

• The Danish Central Bank forecasts three scenarios for the Danish economy in 2020. The three scenarios differ by the speed with which containment

efforts are unwound. In the mild scenario, where GDP is contracting by 3% in 2020, restrictions are gradually eased from Easter to a full lifting of

restrictions by October 2020.

• The Confederation of Danish Industry has based its projection of a 7% decline in 2020 GDP on a survey of its member firms.

• Nordea has published an economic forecast for the Danish economy based on three scenarios for global developments: a V-shaped recovery, a slower

U-shaped scenario, and a pessimistic L scenario. The positive V-shaped recovery is associated with a steep decline in GDP in the first half of 2020, but

the recovery is taking sharp during the summer, and GDP declines by a relatively modest 0.5% in 2020.

• The Economic Councils project two scenarios for the Danish economy. In the optimistic scenario, the economy rebounds relatively quickly, and GDP

declines by 3.5% in 2020. In the pessimistic scenario, a second wave of COVID-19 emerges during the fall, and new containment efforts and

restrictions are activated; new aid packages are introduced. In this scenario, GDP contracts by 5.5% in 2020.

2.3%

3.9%

0.9%

(0 .5%)

(4.9%)

1.9% 1.3% 0.2%

0.9% 1.6%

2.3% 3.2%

2.0% 2.4% 2.4%

Median; (4 .7%)

(14%)

(12%)

(10%)

(8%)

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

-

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Denmark: GDP growth and 2020 market expectations

Historical (IMF) Danish Central Bank Ministry of Finance

The Economic Councils IMF Confederation of Danish Industry

Danske Bank Nordea Median


• To aid our clients in navigating the complex landscape of COVID-19 assistance programmes, Deloitte has developed a free digital portal that captures

the latest financial, tax, business, and social measures enacted by country.

Deloitte Government Response Portal

Database of financial, tax, business, and social measures announced by governments globally

Access the portal!

https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/covid-19/covid19-government-funding-portal.html




Note:

Source:

1) VSTOXX as volatility index of EURO STOXX; 2) Default probability calculated based on 5Y iTraxx European Crossover CDS and a recovery rate of 40%.

Thomson Reuters Eikon

Market volatility and European credit default probability

Equity market volatility remains elevated and comparable to the levels observed during the global financial crisis

• The VSTOXX Index measures 30-day implied volatility

of the EURO STOXX 50 equity index and reflects

investors' uncertainty about future equity market

moves.

• As shown, the coronavirus induced an increase in

volatility to a level comparable to that experienced

during the global financial crisis in 2008. Since then,

volatility has declined, but it still remains elevated and

comparable to the levels observed during the global

financial crisis.

68

30

90

70

30

0

50

10

20

40

60

80

100

VSTOXX Index1

Vola

tility

index

• The chart opposite shows the development in the

implied default probabilities based on the 5Y iTraxx

European Crossover spread of Credit Default Swaps and

an assumed recovery rate of 40%. It measures default

probabilities on a portfolio of sub-investment grade

corporate debt in Europe.

• With a current default probability of about 35%, we are

at the highest level since the European debt crisis, but

still below peak financial crisis levels.

• As the index reflects cost of debt, any refinancing will

be costly for leveraged companies, even though interest

rates are close to being record low.

30

0

10

60

20

40

50

70

%

61.7%

34.9%

Defa

ult p

robability in %

iTraxx Europe Crossover index: Default probability2


Sources: Danske Bank, Deloitte Covid-19 portal, reuters

Aid packages

(1/7)

Country Target groupsSize of aid Type of aid

Canada

• Consumers• Corporates• Employees

• About CAD 146bn (~6.2% of GDP)

• Emergency wage subsidies• Business and personal tax deferrals• Student loan payment delays

China

• SMEs

• About CNY 1.25tn (~1.25% of GDP)

• Reduction in VAT for SMEs• Exemption from social security payments for up to five months• Postponement of Housing Provision Fund payments for companies affected by

COVID-19• Special-purpose bond issuance quota lifted and front loaded (for infrastructure

projects)

Austria

• SMEs• Family-owned

companies• One-person

enterprises

• EUR 38bn (~9.5% of GDP)

• Liquidity measures• Loan guarantees• Tax deferrals• Labour subsidies for companies that have to reduce working hours• Aid for one-person and family-owned enterprises, tourism and cultural sectors• Safety net for small businesses

Page 27


Aid packages

(2/7)


European

Union (EU)

• Member states• Corporates• SMEs• Health care efforts

• EUR 500bn (~3.5% of GDP)

• General escape clause for fiscal rules• Maximum flexibility on state aid rules• Pandemic Crisis Support': loan through ESM in the tune of 2% of countries'

GDP (EUR 240bn) • Corona Response Investment Initiative' to support health care efforts, SMEs &

vulnerable sectors • Stepped up EIB lending to SMEs (EUR 200bn)

Finland

• Corporates• SMEs


• Additional budgets worth EUR 4.1bn largely to business aid and healthcare • Deferred corporate tax and pension payments • Finnvera gets EUR 10bn additional loan guarantee limit to help businesses • Emergency aid to companies in worst affected small companies • State Pension Fund will buy EUR 1bn of commercial paper

Denmark

• Self-employed• SMEs• Corporates• Airlines

• Fiscal: DKK 98bn (~4.3% of GDP)

• Credit: Up to DKK 301bn (~13.1% of GDP)

• Salary compensation scheme running for three months, covering up to 90% of an employee's salary and runs for four months

• Schemes that cover income for self-employed persons and help to cover fixed costs

• Extend deadlines for payroll taxes and VAT, including temporary return of taxes already paid in March in some cases

• Local governments will move future investments to 2020• Government guarantee for some corporate debt and airlines• Enhanced export credit

Sources: Danske Bank, Deloitte Covid-19 portal

Page 28


Aid packages

(3/7)


Germany

• Affected companies• SMEs• Self-employed

• EUR 750bn (~22% of GDP)

• Immediate assistance program to support SMEs and self-employed (EUR 50bn)• Liquidity measures for affected companies (KfW credit & state guarantees incl.

equity stakes)• Easier access to short-term work compensation• Easier access to unemployment benefits and protection of tenants• Lower VAT rate (7%) for restaurants for 1 year• Deferred tax payments for companies

Greece

• Corporates• Affected companies• Citizens


• Suspended tax and contribution payments for 4 months for businesses directly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19

• EUR 800 bonus for employees unable to work due to outbreak• Sales tax reduced to 6% from the standard 24% for products needed to

prevent the spread of COVID-19• Businesses and workers directly hit by outbreak will be allowed to pay only

60% of their commercial property lease rentals• State to pay all outstanding obligations to citizens

France

• Affected businesses• SMEs• Employees

• EUR 400bn (~16.5% of GDP)

• EUR 4bn package to support start-ups • Extended deadlines for social security and tax payments and sick leave

payments for caring for children • Short-time working scheme, under which the state will cover entirety of lost

salaries • EUR 300bn for credit guarantees to support corporation bank-funding • Cash handouts of EUR 1500 for affected SMEs. Additional support of EUR 2,000

can be provided to prevent bankruptcy


Page 29


Aid packages

(4/7)


Japan

• SMEs• Citizens

• JPY 12.1tn (~19.6% of GDP)

• Favourable credit lines for SMEs• Delayed tax and social security payments• Cash handout of 100,000 JPY to all citizens

New Zealand

• Corporates• Employees

• NZD 12.1bn (~4% of GDP)

• Wage Subsidy scheme• Permanent lift in welfare payments• Loan scheme for SMEs• Reintroducing depreciation deductions• Lifting the threshold for payment of provisional tax

Italy

• SMEs• Corporates• Employees• Self-employed


• Help for workers facing temporary layoffs• Guarantee fund for SME loans• Moratorium for business and personal mortgage repayments• One-off payment of EUR 500 for self-employed and cash bonus for Italians still

working, financial support to families


Page 30


Aid packages

(5/7)


Portugal

• Corporates• EUR 9.2bn

(~4.3% of GDP)

• Credit lines for affected businesses and tax deferrals• Possible moratorium on capital and interest payments

Norway

• SMEs• Employees• Self-employed• Corporates• Airlines

• Fiscal:NOK 201bn (~6.7% of GDP)

• Credit: NOK 100bn (~3.3% of GDP)

• Government loan guarantee specifically aimed at SMEs (NOK 50bn) and reintroduction of Government Bond Fund (NOK 50bn)

• Corporate deficits can be written off against tax on surpluses from previous years

• Owners of loss-making companies can postpone payments of the wealth tax• "Temporary tax relief for airlines, drop in both passenger tariffs and airport

tariffs"• Reduction of employee’s tax by 4 pp. for 2 months• Other benefits, i.e. government pays for the first 20 days for temporary lay-

offs• Reintroduction of Government Bond Fund (NOK 50bn)• VAT reduction from 12% to 6% from April 1 for specific sectors directly

affected by COVID-19• Cash injections directly to corporates and Kommunalbanken• Guarantee to Airlines and support to start-ups


Page 31


Aid packages

(6/7)


Sweden

• Corporates• SMEs• Specific sectors

• Fiscal:SEK 100bn (~2% of GDP)

• Credit: SEK 565bn (~10% of GDP)

• Businesses will be offered the opportunity to have tax payments for the period January to March repaid. Repaid taxes can be kept for a period of a year (SEK 300bn)

• Increased loan facilities and introduction of government loan guarantees for Swedish businesses

• Intensive care fund for SMEs of SEK 100 bn and allowance for SME to postpone annual VAT payments for 4 months

• Credit guarantees to airlines and support to Health Agencies• Short term work allowance scheme avoids termination of employment• A temporary discount for rental costs in vulnerable sectors

Switzerland


• CHF 42bn (~6% of GDP)

• Aid package aimed at helping companies where CHF 8bn is earmarked to fund the imposition of short-time work at firms; other tranches for hardship loans and to support specific sectors

• Special guarantee scheme to support SMEs in liquidity difficulties due to COVID-19

Spain


• EUR 117bn (~9.4% of GDP)

• Public guarantees (EUR 100bn)• Deferred tax payments for SMEs• Suspension of mortgage payments• Measures for tourism and transport sectors


Page 32



Aid packages

(7/7)


United

Kingdom


• GBP 480bn (21% of GDP)

• Government-backed loans and guarantees • SME GBP 3,000 cash grant• CBILS (Corona Business Interruption Loan Scheme) of up to £5m to help firms

manage cash flows. Terms from 3 months to 10 years for term loans and asset finance. Interest-free first year

• COVID-19 self-employment income support scheme• Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme• Deferring tax payments

United States

of America

• Large corporations• SMEs

• USD 2.8tn (~13% of GDP)

• Loan guarantees and assistance for large companies (USD 500bn)• Aid for SMEs (USD 671bn)• Unemployment insurance extension. Jobless workers to receive extra USD

600/week for 4 months• More health care spending (USD 225bn)• Direct payments to individuals. Lower and middle-income Americans to receive

USD 1200 per adult and USD 500 for every child under age 17

The

Netherlands

• Corporates• SMEs• Self-employed• Affected companies


• Delayed tax payment and temporary arrangement for compensation of labour costs

• Business Finance Guarantee Scheme, funding opportunities for companies experiencing difficulties in obtaining bank loans and bank guarantees

• Assistance scheme for self-employed• Compensation scheme for specific sectors• EUR 4,000 compensation for firms heavily affected

Page 33

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