Robert Stojanov, Barbora Duží, Dmytro Vikhrov, Ilan KelmanRobert Stojanov, Barbora Duží, Dmytro Vikhrov, Ilan Kelman

CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION AS CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION AS ADAPTATION?ADAPTATION?

August 28, 2014

Charles University in Prague

Outline of presentation

● Environmental migration:● - typology of environmental migrants,● - migration as coping and adaptation

strategy.● Case studies:● - Climate change and population – North-

West Kenya● - Bangladesh - climate change and

migration● Maldives and SLR

Environmentally- induced Migration

● The common elements between the people:● - their main reason for departure is a situation of objective

environmental degradation or change, ● - this factor can be mixed with other factors e.g. social,

economic or political factors; however, environmental factors needs to be identified, as one of the main forces,

● - the displacement can be temporary (short or long-term) or permanent,

● - no distinction is made if the persons cross an international border or not.

Stojanov (2008): Development, Environment and Migration. Analysis of Linkages and Consequences.

Policy-makers need classification:

- threat of increase of asylum-seekers,

- economic costs of (new) immigration.

● Three following categories:

● Environmentally-motivated migrants

● Environmental displacees

- Slow-onset environmental displacees

- Rapid-onset environmental displacees

● Development displacees

Environmentally-motivated migrants

● People who chose to move relatively voluntarily from their usual place of residence primarily due to environ. concerns.

● - This type of migration is pro-active, and can also be viewed as a coping strategy,

● - they have choose stay or leave their habitats.● Examples:● - 2nd wave of migrants due to Chernobyl nuclear disaster

(outside the 30 km security zone)● - migration (sub-urbanization) because of polluted

cities/towns.Stojanov (2012) Refugees Worldwide. Volume One: A Global Perspective

Environmental Displacees

● People who are forced to leave their usual place of residence, because of adverse environ. processes and events (natural/triggered by people)

● a) slow onset environmental displacees

● People who have relatively longer time for displacement and better presumption of preference for finding place for new livelihood.

● - E.g. land degradation and lowering crops.

● b) rapid onset environmental displacees

● People who has to move from the place of origin almost immediately before predicted natural disaster or immediately after that.

● - E.g. victims of natural or human disasters (tropical cyclones, tsunamis, industrial catastrophes, 1st wave of Chernobyl migrants).

Stojanov (2012) Refugees Worldwide. Volume One: A Global Perspective

Development Displacees

● People who are intentionally relocated or resettled due to a planned land use change for economic development.

● This type of displacement includes people who are displaced because of development projects such as:

- role of dams construction and climate change ?? (need new research),

- transport infrastructure development,

- urbanization.

Stojanov (2012) Refugees Worldwide. Volume One: A Global Perspective

Coping strategy

● “ability of people, organizations, and systems, using available skills and resources, to face and manage adverse conditions, emergencies or disasters” (UNISDR - United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction),

- Coping strategy focuses on the moment, constraint, and survival

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012)

Adaptation strategy

● “rendering suitable, modifying” (Oxford English Dictionary),

● - adapting (in terms of human responses) focuses on the future, where learning and reinvention are key features,

● - long-term strategy.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012)

Kenya and environmental security

● - North-West Kenya,

● - climate change impacts,

● - 4 countries with internal conflicts,

● - nomads tribes do not recognize international borders.

Stojanov and Duží (2013). Mezinárodní vztahy, 48 (3): 9-31.

North-West Kenya – Environment & Population

● Characterization of the territory:

- security – independent Turkana tribes (nomads), army controls bigger towns only,

- recorded rainfall seasons variability or failed rains during a last decade,

- lack of precipitation + overgrazing, land degradation and deforestation,

- increase of pressure on environment (arid region),

- huge refugee camp (80.000 in early 2007).

Climate Variability

● Failed rains late in 2005 and early 2006 in several east African countries left 11 mil. people facing food crisis.

● Kenya's rains: Oct-Dec. 2005 rainy season were poor.● Turkana's population (1/2 mil.) - nomadic herders have

suffered further from a drought under way since 2005, losing up to half of their precious livestock.

● Child malnutrition levels have reached 30 percent.● Cattle-rustling and clashes between tribes over scant

resources are common, especially on the border.

Planet Ark (2006a, 2006b, 2006c); Mariao (2006)

Conclusion

● CC does not push large-scale (significant) migration flows (intern.,internat.) for last years,

● marked (no mass) R→U process with a unclear cultural consequences for future (nomads),

● current instability + CC → huge potential of insecurity and international instability for next years.

Bangladesh – CC & migration

● area 144,000 km2 - therefrom land 133,910 km2

● cultivated land – 55,4%,● tropical monsoonal climate,● population - 161,1 mil. (07.2012 est.), ● popul. density - 1119 people / km2 (!!!),● vulnerability for climate change,

consequences.

Natural Hazards - Floods

● Normal flood-years - 18% per cent of the land is flooded x in severe years close to 40% (in 1988 – 70%, and 1998 – 60%),

● Flood from 1998 was the severest one because the duration of water-logging was more than 2 and 1/2 months → destroyed 2 main crops.

● Some 71 mil. (65% popul.) is affected every year by inundation of slight or moderate intensity.

● Estimation of the proportion of affected popul. is 84-94 per cent, depending on climate change scenario.

Saadi (2003); Islam et al. (1994)

Floods + Hurricanes (selected)

● Flood-prone areas in central and North-Eastern Bangladesh would be more vulnerable in terms of depth and spatial extent of flooding,

● No trend in storm frequency could be established in relation to the sea surface temperature increase in the Bay of Bengal.

● Nevertheless it is almost certain the increase in cyclone intensity (wind speed).

● However the cyclone intensification as mentioned above is not certified by observations and numerical experiments.

Department for Adaptation Strategies Research

Mirza et al. (2003: 315); Ali (1999: 112)

Sidr

November 16, 2007,

rapidity: 240 km/h,

Category 4 (Kathrine in USA has 3),

10 mil. affected people,

1,5 mil. lost their houses,

3500 death people.

Stojanov & Duží (2012) Vesmír, 91 (10): 570-573

Conclusion – Bangladesh-India

● The migration's preferences of people from Khulna to the West Bengal in India were confirmed.

● Environmental factors play the most important role (with economic reasons) in migration processes in Bangladesh.

● Migration flows to India (more than 20 mil.)

→ security, ethnic, economic, environ. consequences,

→ 1/3 of Assam population is Bangladeshis (mentioned such “demographic aggression”),

● potential growth of migration flows due to increasing climate change impacts.

Stojanov & Duží (2012) Asian Migration Policy: South, Southeast and East Asia.

Maldives - geography

● Archipelago of 1,190 coral islands grouped into 26 atolls (200 inhabited islands + around 110 islands tourist resorts)

● Total area: 90 000 km2, above water: 298 km2 ● Climate: tropical, hot, humid (between 250C-300C,

78-82% humidity, average precipitation 1900 mm/year). Two seasons: dry, north-east monsoon (November - March); rainy, south-west monsoon (June - August)

● Highest point: 2.4 m ● Arable land: 10%

Maldives - demography

● 393,595 inhabitants

● Population structure

0-14 years: 21% 15-24 years: 23.4% 25-54 years: 46.5% 55-64 years: 4.8%65 years and over: 4.2%

● Population growth rate: -0.09%

● Birth rate: 15.59 /1,000 inhabitants

● Death rate: 3.49 / 1,000 inhabitants

● Total fertility rate 1, 76 children born / woman

● Migration rate: -12.67 migrants /1,000 population

Maldives - economy

● Tourism: the most important, 30% of GDP (8 USD/tourist tax/day), about 500 000 tourist / year

● Fishing: the second important sector

● Trade and shipping: import of goods prevails

● Manufacturing: not develeping (boat building)

● Agriculture: not important, limited capacity of arable land (coconut, corn)

● Export: 283 billion USD

● Import: 1.406 billion USD

Environmental challenges:

● Natural hazards- tsunamis- beach erosion- low elevation of islands makes them sensitive to sea level rise, 80% of land is bellow 1m above the sea X concept of safe islands

● Environmental risks- water - pollution of environment- poor waste management - coral reef destruction and bleaching (GW, i.e. 1998)- overfishing (2010 ban of shark hunting)- poor environmental awareness- people and space

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies● Discussion over strategy 'Carbon Zero Society'

- respondents cheer for reduction of energy dependency, but see a lot of barrier to realization (solar power)

● Respondents mostly promote realization of various adaptation strategies (coastal breakwater barriers, adaptation of houses and beaches)

● Concept of safe islands and land reclamation (land above 2 meters )as an example of hard adaptation is perceived with skepticism and fair, despite its proclaimed advantages (negative envi. impacts)

● Migration due to natural hazard: experience of movement out about 1.000 people from islands because of tsunami (2004) in past, future uncertain

● General opinion: despite some future, potential SLR risk, society has to solve actual economic and social problems and also adapt

● Some respondent warn about vulnerability and dependence of islands on external goods and sources (food, water, energy)

Concluded remarks

– Research helped us to identify the most actual environmental risks and changes (e.g. monsoon shifts)

- some mitigation (carbon 0 society) and adaptation strategies (walls, safe islands, etc.),

- migration as economic and social tool: looking for better way of life, environmental reasons play negligible role

- migration such as coping and adaptation strategy is perceived unpopular but potentially inevitable in case of SLR in long-term future (not perceived as actual)

- local people and local experts prefer stay and adapt.

Concluded remarks• the issue of environmental change and migration linkages is relatively new scholar topic needs more empiric research,

• the consequences are not clear in every cases (under-researched topic + local disparities)

• it is still not clear who is environmental migrants/refugee (political sensitive),

• the case of climate change:

•– the role of coping and adaptation strategies,

•- migration such as coping and adaptation strategy,

•- level (index) of vulnerability to CC → movement (?).

STOJANOV, R. et al. (2014): Migration as Adaptation? Population Dynamics in the Age of Climate Variability.

● links between CC + migration – need other research activities

● are there general recognizable factors (indicators) which need / do not need to migration?

Concluded remarks

STOJANOV, R. et al. (2014): Migration as Adaptation? Population Dynamics in the Age of Climate Variability.

References

● CIA (2013): The World Factbook. [online]. Washington: Central Intelligence Agency. [cit. 2013-10-14]. Available from www.cia.gov

● KIRKBRIDE, M. (2006): Delivering the agenda. Addressing chronic under-development in Kenya’s arid lands. Oxford: Oxfam International.

● MARIAO, P.M. (2006): Kenya: When there's no oil, there's no water. [online]. Oxfam Report, reliefweb, March 2006. [cit. 2012-10-14]. Available from http://reliefweb.int

● PLANET ARK (2006a): WFP Says Drought-Hit Kenyans Need Aid, Seeks US$90 Million. [online]. Reuters News Service, Planet Ark, 20/7/2006. [cit. 2006-07-21]. Available from www.planetark.com

● PLANET ARK (2006b): Drought-Hit Kenya Seeks Debt Relief - Minister. [online]. Reuters News Service, Planet Ark, 11/1/2006. [cit. 2006-01-13]. Available from www.planetark.com

● PLANET ARK (2006c): UK's Prince Edward Starts Africa Tour in Drought Zone. [online]. Reuters News Service, Planet Ark, 9/1o/2006. [cit. 2006-10-15]. Available from www.planetark.com

● IPCC (2012): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-60780-4

● DUŽÍ,B.; VIKHROV,D.; KELMAN, I.; STOJANOV, R.; JAKUBÍNSKÝ, J. (2013): Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18 (8), DOI 10.1007/s11027-013-9504-9

● STOJANOV, R. (2008): Environmental Factors of Migration. In: Stojanov, R. et al. Development, Environment and Migration. Analysis of Linkages and Consequences. Olomouc: Palacky University, 2008. ISBN 9788024 419664

● STOJANOV, R. (2012): Environmental Change and Migration. In: Elliot, D. and Segal, U.A. (eds.) Refugees Worldwide. Volume One: A Global Perspective. Santa Barbara: Praeger, pp. 55-89. ISBN 978-0-313-37807-2

● STOJANOV, R.; DUŽÍ, B. (2012): When History and River Break the Border in South Asia: Environmental Migration and Policy Dilemma. In: Rahman Md M.; Ullah AKM A. (eds): Asian Migration Policy: South, Southeast and East Asia. New York: Nova Science Publishers. ISBN 978-1-62257-020-1

● STOJANOV, R.; DUŽÍ, B. (2012): Změna klimatu a migrace. Adaptační dilema obyvatel Bangladéše. Vesmír, 91 (10): 570-573.

References

● STOJANOV, R.; DUŽÍ, B. (2013): Migrace jako adaptace na změnu klimatu. Mezinárodní vztahy, 48 (3): 9-31.

● STOJANOV, R.; KELMAN, I.; MARTIN, M.; VIKHROV, D.; KNIVETON, D.; DUŽÍ, B. (2014): Migration as Adaptation? Population Dynamics in the Age of Climate Variability. Brno: Academy of the Sciences of the Czech Republic, p. 67. ISBN 978-80-87902-03-5

● STOJANOV, R. DUŽÍ, B., JAKUBÍNSKÝ, J. (2014): Climate Change and Floods along the Brahmaputra: Migration Factors in Bangladesh. In: Lopez-Gunn, E., Stucker, D. (eds): Adaptation to Climate Change through Water Resources Management. Capacity, Equity and Sustainability. Routledge. p. 384. ISBN 978-0-415-63593-6

● STOJANOV, R.; KAVANOVÁ, K. (2009): El concepto de migrantes medioambientales (comentarios introductorios). Estudios Migratorios Latinoamericanos, 23 (68): 39-54.

● VIKHROV, D.; STOJANOV, R., DUŽÍ, B.; JUŘIČKA, D. (2014): Commuting patterns of Czech households exposed to flood risk from the Becva river. Environmental Hazards, 13 (1): 58-72.

References

Thank you very much for your attention!Thank you very much for your attention!

Barbora Duží,Robert Stojanov, Dmytro Vikhrov, Ilan Kelman

email: arobrab@centrum.cz