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    1

    Mathematical Models forEarthquake Simulations: Forwardand Inverse Model Applications

    on North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Department of Civil Engineering

    andEarth uake En ineerin Research Center, METU,

    Ayeg!l AskanDecember 1, 2015

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    2

    Introduction: Ground Motion Modeling

    Three main issues (by Seismo. Soc. of Amer. 190!:1. the "hysical earth#ua$e e%ent itself (&hen'

    &here' ho&!

    . the associated ground motions

    ). the e*ect on the structures

    u0

    td

    +edroc$

    Softer Soil ,ayers

    Structures

    Source

    ------..

    --

    ath/*ects

    Site

    /*ects

    Structurales"onse

    a(t!

    a(t!

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    3

    2e3nitions: 4or&ard and In%erse GroundMotion Simulations

    u0

    td

    +edroc$

    Softer Soil ,ayers

    Structures

    Source

    ------..

    --

    ath

    /*ects

    Site/*ects

    Am"li3cations

    Structuraes"ons

    a(t!

    a(t!4or&ard GroundMotion Modeling

    In%erse GroundMotion Modeling

    5sourcein%ersion

    5material

    in%ersion

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    4

    4or&ard and In%erse Ground MotionModeling in ,arge +asins

    "ro#lem$modeling and forecasting groundmotion in large basins &ith heterogeneousmaterial "ro"erties

    %igni&cance$design and assessment "rocess inha6ard mitigation

    'verall o#(ectives$

    5to de%elo" the ca"ability for generating

    realistic #road#and ground motionusingimproved models of com"le7 basin geology andearth#ua$e sources )*hy inversion+

    5to use that ca"ability to modeland forecast

    strong ground motions

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    5

    Challenges$

    5irregular geometry

    5heterogeneity and uncertainty in geological and

    source "arameters5s"atial %ariation of soil "ro"erties re#uires high8resolution models and solutions

    5di*erent natures of high and lo& fre#uencymotionsTools$Su"ercom"uters along &ith %ariousnumerical techni#ues' material databases

    4or&ard and In%erse Ground MotionModeling in ,arge +asins

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    6

    ontents

    In%erse models for %elocity structures (I.Theoretical' II. 4ield &or$!

    4or&ard models (2eterministic andStochastic!

    ,imitations of these techni#ues

    A""lications in orth&estern Tur$ey:;alidation of ground motion estimations &ith

    a ma

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    7

    re%ious >or$ (A$celi$ et al. 00)!

    5/lastic )2 &a%eform in%ersion

    5eed to be im"ro%ed for the anelastic losses in soil media

    5A ne& 2 model including anelasticity

    54aster o"timi6er?

    5Intrinsic attenuation (dam"ing! in soil media is re"resentedusing mechanical analogs and #uality factor @ B1C6 atresonance fre#uencyD

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    8

    fvut

    u=+

    )]([

    2

    2

    t

    uv

    t

    v

    =+

    u and %: the state %ariables'

    E: the shear modulus'

    : the rela7ation fre#uencyof the S,S': the s"ring constant ofthe S,S'f: the source function.

    Soln. Techni#ue: 4inite /lement in s"ace and 4inite 2i*erence intime

    6

    /

    6

    )min( maxmin fVwavelengthh S=a%eform Modeling (,imitations!

    ,o& fre#uencies (L1 6!eed a &ell8de3ned and high8resolution )2 %elocity model ofthe region of interest

    om"uting "o&er

    Seismic stations and muchdata to %alidate

    igh fre#uencies (1 6!eed to $no& the regionalin"ut em"irical "arameters ("ath'duration' geometric s"readingetc!

    om"uting "o&erSeismic stations and muchdata to %alidate

    Am"li3cations? (Again at least12 %elocity models re#uired?!

    Lets look at what we have done (and what we could notdo) for Turkey

    in terms of forward and inverse modeling

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    Ground Motion Simulations

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    %tochastic "oint:%ource M)descriptions #y Atkinson et al;, 0

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    1 The %eterministic aspects are speci6ie%b5 the

    aera4e #ourier spectrum, t5picall5 as a 6unction o6

    ma4nitu%e an% %istance31 The stochastic aspects are treate% b5mo%elin4 the

    motions as noise 7ith the speci6ie% un%erl5in4

    spectrum3

    1 The point"source assumption is reasonable 7henthesource"to"site %istance is much lar4er than the

    source %imensions

    %tochastic "oint:%ource

    Modeling)descriptions #y Atkinson et al;, 0

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    #ault is assumme% to be a 6inite rectan4ular plane an% %ii%e% into

    sub6aults3

    $ach sub6ault is assumme% to be a point source 7ith an 89spectrum3

    roun% motions 6rom each sub6ault are summe% 7ith a time %ela5 in or%er

    to obtain the 4roun% motion acceleration 6rom the entire 6ault as rupture

    starts 6rom the h5pocenter:

    a(t);

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    Finite'Fault Source Models$Fi#ure adapted from (isada) !**+) ,ournal of

    Seismolo#-&

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    Finite'Fault Source

    Models

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    Finite'Fault Source

    Models

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    .eferences:

    /kkar, S3, ommer, ?3?3 ([email protected])3 Are%iction o6 elastic %isplacement response spectra in $urope an% the

    i%%le $ast, Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn, 36, [email protected]"B&0B3 eresne, +3, an% 3 3 /tkinson ([email protected])3 o%elin4 6inite"6ault ra%iation 6rom the 7 nspectrum, Bull. Seism.

    Soc. Am.87, [email protected] " FG3

    oore, D3 3 (BF&)3 Stochastic simulation o6 hi4h"6re2uenc5 4roun% motions base% on seismolo4ical mo%els

    o6 the ra%iate% spectra, Bull.Seism. Soc. Am. 73, BFEBFG3

    oore, D3 3 (BFG)3 !se o6 seismoscope recor%s to %etermine Ian% peak elocities, Bull. seism. Soc.

    Am., 74, &B&9G3

    ulkan, A3, *alkan, $3 (9009)3 /ttenuation mo%elin4 o6 recent earth2uakes in Turke5, Journal of Seismology6, &@"G03

    Herrmann, J33 (BF)3 /n extension o6 Jan%om ibration Theor5 estimates o6 stron4 4roun% motion to lar4e

    earth2uakes,Bull. Seis. Soc. Am. 75,[email protected]&3

    aroei%is 3 A3, Aapa4eor4iou /3 S3 (900&)3 / mathematical representation o6 near"6ault 4roun% motions,

    Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.93, B0BB&B3

    otae%ian, D3, an% 3 3 /tkinson (900)3 Stochastic 6inite"6ault mo%elin4 base% on a D5namic Corner

    #re2uenc5, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95,B0B03

    -akamura, K3 (BF)3 / metho% 6or %5namic characteristics estimation o6 subsur6ace usin4 microtremor onthe 4roun% sur6ace, QR RTRI 30,9&&3

    !4urhan, 3 an% /3 /skan (900)3 Stochastic Stron4 roun% otion Simulation o6 the B9 -oember B

    DLce (Turke5) $arth2uake !sin4 a D5namic Corner #re2uenc5 /pproach, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. in

    reision3

    !lusa5, J3, Tunca5, $3, Sonme H3, okceo4lu C3 (900G)3 /n attenuation base% on Turkish stron4 motion

    %ata an% iso"acceleration map o6 Turke5, Engineering eology74, 9E"9B3

    !mutlu, -3, *3 *oketsu, an% C3 ilkereit (900G)3 The rupture process %urin4 the B Duce, Turke5,earth2uake 6rom joint inersion o6 teleseismic an% stron4"motion %ata, Tectono!hysics39B, &B &9G3

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    23

    Sources: 4ault Nones in Tur$ey

    /k5u et al3, 9009, BSSA

    590O of the total area islocated in seismically acti%eregions

    5 9P O of its "o"ulation beingunder earth#ua$e threat

    5Mostly reinforced concrete andbric$ masonry structures

    5a"id ground and structural%ulnerability assessmenttechni#ues: deterministic andstochastic a""roaches

    !tkucu et al3, 900&, JI

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    2424

    52u6ce' +olu' Qaynasli: orth&estern to&ns hit by t&oM&R F earth#ua$es in less than ) months? 1999 Qocaeliand 2u6ce earth#ua$es

    5Acti%e faults around industrial facilities in > Tur$ey

    5Ma

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    orth&est of A4N

    o %elocity model' not e%en for Istanbul that is

    su""osed to be &or$ed on really hard bygeo"hysicists

    /7isting models are coarse ("oorly resol%ed and

    mostly in the dee"er structure 1$m' $m etc!Geotechnical engineers' on the other hand' aremostly concerned &ith the to"most layers

    >e do not $no& &hat goes on bet&een )0m and1000 m most of the time? (&here the most of theseismic am"li3cationsC attenuations ta$e "lace!

    2o &e ha%e to drill do&n to $ms in urban regions

    ?'

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    assi%e Seismic /7"eriments (ollaboration &ithrof. Asten!S"atial Autocorrelation Techni#ue:4or a "lane &a%e "assing "airs ofstations' coherency a%eraged in a6imuth ' gi%es(f) = e i k.rd = Jo (k.r)&herek = 2 f / C(f) (A$i' 19PF'19P!

    52N' +K, stations (both

    ma

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    May 7th, 201027

    D Z C S t a t i n

    " 0 0

    " G 0 0

    " & 0 0

    " 9 0 0

    " B 0 0

    0

    0 0 0 B 0 0 0 B 0 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0

    ! " # m $ " %

    D

    e

    &

    t

    '

    #

    m

    %

    ( ) * S t a t i n

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    " G 0 0

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    ! " # m $ " %

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    e

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    #

    m

    %

    D Z C S t a t i n

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    ! " # m $ " %

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    e

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    '

    #

    m

    %

    ( ) * S t a t i n

    " 0 0

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    0 9 0 0 G 0 0 E 0 0 F 0 0 B 0 0 0

    ! " # m $ " %

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    m

    %

    assi%e Seismic /7"eriments (Asten et al.'01!

    1+n pro4ress 6orcomparison 7ith lo4s

    an% other metho%s

    1/mpli6ications 6rom

    %i66erent techni2ues

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    a5 @th, 90B0 2828

    A""lication: Stochastic Simulation of the1999 2U6ce /arth#ua$e

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    In"ut arameters of the 1999 2U6ce e#.(Jgurhan and As$an' 010' +SSA!

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    3030

    ;alidation at Strong Motion Stations (Jgurhanand As$an' 010' +SSA!

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    3131

    om"arison of Synthetics &ith egional andGlobal GM/s (Jgurhan and As$an' 010' +SSA!

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    3232

    orrelation of Kbser%ed 2amage &ithSimulated Ground Motion 2istribution (Jgurhanand As$an' 010' +SSA!

    simulated GA%alues are com"ared&ith the obser%eddamage

    damage de3ned interms of Mean2amage atio (M2!

    )(

    ),(),(

    "N

    "DSN"DS#$ =

    =DS

    $ DSDR"DS#"MDR )(),()(

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    LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#()urhan, As%an, A%in*i, Mala)nini !2012#

    /pril 9th, 90BB 33

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    LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#

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    35

    LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#

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    an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "ractice(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!

    Identi3cation ofGround Motions

    4ragilityInformation of the

    +uilding Stoc$

    /arth#ua$e,oss /stimation

    +ne

    Cm&ete

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    an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "ractice(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!

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    Ground Motion Simulations (Tur$ey case!

    2eterministic scenarios4inite8fault simulations (/VSIM' Mota6edian andAt$inson' 00P!

    A range of M&B P8F.P on 2u6ce fault

    4ault area (>ells and o""ersmith' 199!' stress dro"(Mohammadioun and Ser%a' 001!' random sli"distributions

    Site am"li3cations are estimated from "re%iousdata C; ratios (a "assi%e seismic testing "ro

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    a5 @th, 90B0 39

    Ground Motion 2istributions (GA! of Scenario/arth#ua$es

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    4040

    4ragility Analyses5reference fragility cur%es &ere deri%ed for the s"eci3c regionalbuilding ty"es (/rberi$' 00H' /#. /ngr. Struct. 2yn.!

    5C: lo&8mid rise' including degradation "ro"erties of concrete'masonry: number of storeys' material ty"e and #uality' regularityin "lan' o"enings in &alls

    5"usho%er analysis of ty"ical buildings under a range of in"utground motions

    5%alidated using GM/=s for the ma

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    4141

    4ragility Analyses

    4or cities of +olu' 2u6ce' and QaynaWlX:

    54or each magnitude M&' GA and G; distributionsare estimated in cells

    5+uilding ty"e distribution and numbers in the cellsare estimated

    5/ach building ty"e is associated &ith its fragility

    52amage ratios are calculated for three ,imit States(Y,' M' SY! from the syntetic GACG; distributions

    as the in"ut ground motion

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    a5 @th, 90B0 42

    an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "racticeZ/S(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!

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    $/rid#in#& the #ap 0etweenseismolo#- and en#ineerin#

    ost o6 the loss estimation stu%ies are either at

    a 4lobal scale

    Mr contraril5 6ocus on onl5 a set o6 buil%in4s

    The %etaile% 6ocus is either on site response or

    4roun% motion mo%elin4 or buil%in4 response

    43

    $ id i & h 0

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    $/rid#in#& the #ap 0etweenseismolo#- and en#ineerin#

    44

    Can 7e actuall5 estimate seismic

    losses in a cit5 usin4 onl5 locall5"%erie% componentsN

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    Regionalseismic actiit5 (oth Arobabilistic an%Deterministic #rame7ork 6or 4roun% motions )Iocal site con%itions (elocit5 mo%elsO)Distinct !ro!ertieso6 the buil%in4 stock o6 interest

    The results to be use%Haar% miti4ation

    Disaster mana4ement+nsurance premiums

    )b-ective

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    Stud- Area: Er%incan

    46

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    ask 12 Site 3onditions$Askan et al2 !*14&

    47

    aresca et al3 900E

    icrotremors: SA/C metho% (/sten, 9000P 9009)

    1#ast1Jelatiel5 cheaper1Can resole %eeper la5ers 7ith the a%%ition o6 HSJ

    in6ormation

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    ask 12 Site 3onditions

    48

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    ask 12 Site 3onditions

    49

    ask 5 "eterministic

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    ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios

    50

    100

    101

    101

    102

    103

    104

    10

    5 Station ERC

    FAS

    (cm/sec)

    re%uenc& (*+)

    NS

    EW

    Synthetic

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    FAS

    (cm/sec)

    -500

    0

    500

    NS

    -500

    0

    500

    A

    cceleration(cm/sec2)

    EW

    10 30 50 70 90-500

    0

    500

    Time (Sec)

    Synthetic

    -100

    0

    100

    NS

    -100

    0

    100

    A

    cceleration(cm/sec2)

    EW

    10 20 30 40-100

    0

    100

    Time (Sec)

    Synthetic

    -

    -

    A

    cceleration(cm/sec2)

    -

    100

    101

    101

    102

    103

    104

    10

    5 Station REF

    FAS

    (cm/sec)

    NS

    EW

    Synthetic

    re%uenc& (*+) re%uenc& (*+)

    1 er5 sparsel5 monitore% until recentl51B9 (7;E3E) earth2uake is recor%e% b5 onl5 & stations1T7o approaches: B3 Aure stochastic, 93 H5bri% simulations1ali%ation o6 this mainshock (/skan et al3, 90B&)

    ask 5 "eterministic

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    ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios

    51

    ./ #66% ! #cm$"%./ #66% #g%./ #66% S #033 "% #g% ./ #66% S #10 "% #g%

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    52

    ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios

    ./ #70% #g% ./ #70% ! #cm$"%

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    ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions Mn site structural classi6ication

    B9 JC, asonr5 sub"classes

    D5namic properties o6 each sub"classes

    (perio%, %uctilit5, etc)

    onte"carlo samplin4

    Detaile% nonlinear anal5ses 7ithin

    MA$-S$$S plat6orm

    53

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    ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions roun% motions are taken 6rom the scenarios

    in Task &3

    / set o6 motions inclu%in4 arious 7 alues,

    at ar5in4 source"site %istances an% sitecon%itions

    Mbjectie is to encounter the local seismic

    %eman% on buil%in4s o6 interest

    54

    Generation of 4ragility ur%es

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    Generation of 4ragility ur%es

    A [ IS R A ]

    ask 7 /uildin# Fra#ilit-

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    ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions

    56

    pro

    babilit5

    o6excee%an

    ce

    A (cms)

    A (cms)

    probabilit5

    o6e

    xcee%ance

    probabilit5

    o6excee%ance

    A (cms)

    p

    robabilit5

    o6excee%a

    nce

    A (cms)

    " 3 i

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    "ama#e 3omparison:188! Event

    57

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    S d 9h i

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    Summar- and 9hat isnet;-ext: Ioss estimations base% on selecte% scenarios

    H5bri% 4roun% motion simulations

    +nte4rate% $arth2uake Simulations (Cit5"

    buil%in4 mo%els) 7ith Aro63Hori

    $conomic an% social losses at cit5"leel

    +nsurance premiums (DoneO )

    A'ril 21, 201059

    ll b ti d < t

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    60

    olloborations and ro

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    Thank 5ou3

    /5se4ul /skan: aaskanmetu3e%u3tr

    http:blo43metu3e%u3traaskan