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How can we fnd the design ground motions or aproject?

Building code approach

(We use ur!ish Earthqua!e "ode# $%%&'

sing prediction models to estimate theresponse spectra or scenario earthqua!e

"hoosing appropriate ground motions andde)eloping the response spectra *ased onselected ground motions

+imple and )alidor regular*uildings# *ut *eaware o the E"$%%& handicaps,

Widel- used or the lastten -ears. /esultssignifcantl- depend onthe selected predictionmodel,

0or special projects1- +elected ground

motions are used instructural anal-sis.

- 2arge uncertaint- isincluded so e3pertopinion is required.

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Estimation o Ground Motion Parameters

he pea! acceleration# pea! )elocit- and response spectral accelerations

are used directl- and indirectl- in the earthqua!e resistant design.

Popular in 45&%6s More popular now# sincethe response o the

structure is represented*etter

he most commonl- used method or estimating the ground motion ispredicti)e relationships (in other words' attenuation relations" heattenuation relations or ground motion parameters are statisticalregressions on appropriate sets o data.

0or proper design# the le)els o ground sha!ing (in terms o PH7 or+a' should *e estimated.

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Estimation o Ground Motion ParametersMore than 8%% pu*lished attenuation models are a)alia*learound the world.How can -ou choose the correct one to use?

a' &ccording to the tectonic regime: Man- pu*lished studiesound signifcant di9erences in attenuation *etween )arioustectonic regions and also or )arious geological conditions. Wema- group the attenuation relations in three main headings1

+hallow crustal earthqua!es in acti)e tectonic regions (ur!e-#"aliornia...'

+hallow crustal earthqua!es in sta*le continental regions(Eastern +# Europe'

+u*duction :one earthqua!es (;apan# "hile...'

*' &ccording to the parameter: here are )ariousrelationships or pea! acceleration# )elocit-# spectralaccelerations# 0ourier amplitude spectrum# duration# 7rias

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +implest 0orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Wh- log =?/emem*er magnitude relations?

Magnitude and distance terms(linear and independent'

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Magnitude and istance E9ects

M+

M

M

he amount o ground sha!ing or a 8>magnitudeearthqua!e is 4% times greater than that produced *- anearthqua!e ha)ing a /ichter magnitude o A.

magnitude qua!e .

Earthqua!es )ar- enormousl- in strength# andgreat earthqua!es produce wa)e amplitudes that

are thousands o times larger than thosegenerated *- wea! tremors. o accommodatethis wide )ariation# /ichter used a logarithmicscale to e3press magnitude.

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B- the wa-1 Which magnitudeare we tal!ing a*out?

7ll GMPEs include earthqua!e magnitude and some measure o source>to>site distance as predictor )aria*les in the model.

here are a num*er oempirical relationships*etween these scales that ma-*e used to ma!e thecon)ersion

Daria*ilit- associated withthese relationships must *e

propagated into the sigma)alue o the GMPE

Models that use local magnitude#M

L# to quanti- earthqua!e si:emight *e a)oided *- the ha:ardanal-st# especiall- i rom adi9erent region than that orwhich the P+H7 is *eingconducted.

he most commonl- used scales ha)e *een surace-wave magnitude,M

s, and moment magnitude, M

w. Man- equations or smaller>

magnitude earthqua!es use local magnitude, ML.

Be careul,,

Be careul,,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +implest 0orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Magnitude and distance terms(linear and independent'

+ame unctional orm (just ta!e e3p,'

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +implest 0orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

ew terms1Fuadratic magnitudeterm+ite e9ects?

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +implest 0orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

his is called a site e9ects dumm- )aria*le,(umm- )aria*le1 a )aria*le that can *e % or 4'

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +implest 0orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

h is called the fctitious depth term

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Better orms1onlinear magnitude term0ictitious depth term+ite dumm-

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

ew term1

+t-le o aulting dumm-,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

ew terms1+ite e9ects# ground motionstation inormation# directi)it-

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

/emem*er the undamental period osoil is equal to1 AH@Ds,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

ew term1"ontinuous site e9ects term instead osite dummies ,Da represents?

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

What is seismogenic depth?

he seismogenic la-er is the range o

depths within the crust or lithosphereo)er which most earthqua!es areinitiated. -picall- in continental crustthis is in the uppermost 48 !m.

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+ource to site distance measures1.istance .e/nitions

rj*# the closest hori:ontaldistance to the )erticalprojection o the rupture (the;o-ner>BooreI distance'

rrup# the closest distance to

the rupture surace

rseis# the closest distance to

the seismogenic part o therupture surace

rh-p# the h-pocentral distance

repi# the epicentral distance

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 Better unctional orms

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

ew term1"ontinuous site e9ects term instead osite dummies ,Da represents?

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +ummari:ing allJ

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Base orm

Please keep inmind:

7 proper GMPEshould include

quadratic magnitude#and magnitude>

dependent distanceslope,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 +ummari:ing allJ

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Kther terms1

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 ur!ish Practice

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 ur!ish Practice

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 ur!ish Practice

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

+ite dummies ,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 ur!ish Practice

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Wea!er unctional orm *ut stronger statistical approach,

l !i h i

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 ur!ish Practice

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Knl- or PG7,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 "urrentl- popular in Europe

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Magnitude dependent sigma,

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 "urrentl- popular in Europe

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

he- added the missing quadratic magnitude term,

l l l i

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Earl->+tage GMPEs1 "urrentl- popular in Europe

ata ta!en rom the PEE/ /eport PEE/ $%44@4%$ *- ;ohn ouglas

Better unctional orm,

"E &%4CL"hapCL Part 4

i ll ?

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oes it reall- matter?

7nnualrate

ofe

3ceedence

PG7(g'

ear 0ault1 /rup8!m

i ll ?

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oes it reall- matter?

7nnualrate

ofe

3ceedence

PG7(g'

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e3t Generation 7ttenuation (G7' Models

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G7 7pproach )s. Pre)ious +tudies

Pre)ious +tudies

. suall-# a single researcher with one>-ear unding. ew model pu*lished and tested in application ater pu*lication

G7. Multi>-ear e9ort. "oordinated stud- with *road in)ol)ement o e3perts in the

ground motion communit- G7 in)ol)ed o)er A% researchers

. E3tensi)e e9ort on ground motion data *ase

"ollect !e- missing data where possi*le. his ta!es se)eral -ears

. Multiple alternati)e models de)eloped 8 G7 models

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Model e)elopment Ground motion models are primaril- *ased on empirical data

se numerical simulations to help constrain the modelsoutside o the range o the empirical data. Hard>roc! ground motions using fnite>ault seismological simulations. 4> site response amplifcation actors using equi)alent>linear method. C> *asin response or the 2os 7ngeles /egion

Multiple soil profles (D+C%' and soil depths considered#

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ata +et +i:e

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4.5

5

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0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

Magnitude

Distance (km)

B Pre 1996

4 Post 1996

G7 ata +et1 4&C earthqua!es# C884 recordings

e)elopers select their own su*set o data to use

+ee the ur!ish atasetjust or comparison,

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e)eloper ata +ets

Developer Number of

Earthquakes

Number of

Recordings

AS08 135 2754

BA08 58 1574

CB08 64 1561

CY08 125 1950

I08 72 942

7tershoc!s

7+%N# "=%N#

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Main "hanges rom Pre)iousModels

/se o DsC% (se o D+C% allow or consistenc- in applicationwith Building codes that are *ased on D+C%. Pre)iousl-# mostmodels used generic soil and roc! site.'

/on>linear site response/Hanging wall and 0ootwall actors

/7dditional predicti)e parameters/epth to op o /upture (E9ect o rupture depth is still

contro)ersial. ot all models include this e9ect. '/epth o +oil/ip (HW actor onl-'

/Models are much more comple3

/ecrease in median on roc! (Ds&%'#

particularl- at large magnitudes

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"omparison o 7Q+ 455& with 7Q+ $%%N

+oil (D+C%$&%'

/rupC% !m

/oc! (D+C%&%'/rupC% !m

ote1 he pre)ious generic roc! models correspond to a*outD+C%88% m@s# not &% as generall- assumed. he G7 modelsor M at C% !m are similar to the pre)ious results.

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"omparison o 7Q+ 455& with 7Q+ $%%N

+oil(D+C%$&%'/;B4 !m

/oc! (D+C%&%'/;B4 !m

When compared to D+C% &%# the G7 models lead to reducedground motions. 0or soil sites# and M# the G7 Models are similar

to the old models.

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/esiduals or 7+%N (%.$'

hese are just e3amples o how the models are doing in matching data.he inter>e)ent term can *e thought o as the a)erage misft or eachearthqua!e. here is one point or each earthqua!e.

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/esiduals or 7+%N (%.$'

hese fgures show the intra>e)ent residuals. Here# there is one pointor each recording (not one point or each earthqua!e'

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ist +calingPG7++

D+C%&%0or thesecomparisons#the !e- is thatthe models

are generall-within a*out aactor o 4.8o each other.

his is much*etter

agreementthan pre)iousmodels#especiall- orthe largermagnitude

earthqua!es.

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D+C%+caling

M/;B4%% !m

+imilar slopes(against D+C%' orthe G7 models

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+tandard e)iation(/;BC% !m# D+C%&%'

+tandard de)iations or the G7 models are similar or M& *ut )er-di9erent or small magnitudes (M8'. his is related to the

inclusion@e3clusion o atershoc!s in the data sets. Models withoutatershoc!s also used a standard de)iation that is constant or all

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/oc!+pectra

/;B4% !mD+C%&%

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+ummar-1he G7 models superseeded the earl- stage modelsJ we do

not use them an- more, E)en though the target area was Western + (W+'# the

GMPEs were intended to *e applica*le in other shallow crustaland acti)e tectonic regions around the world. +lowl-# G7GMPEs ha)e *een used in pro*a*ilistic seismic ha:ard

assessment (P+H7' studies in )arious regions# raising the issueo their applica*ilit- outside W+.

Beore using them# we can test themJ /ecent studies *- +ta9ord et al. ($%%N'# +casserra et al.

($%%5'# +hoja>aheri et al. ($%4%'# and Bradle- ($%4C' testedthe applica*ilit- o the G7>W4 GMPEs or Euro>Mediterranean/egion#

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se o +trong Ground Motion

ata*ase in +electing ProperGMPEs or P+H71ur!e- E3ample

.r" 0eynep G1lerce2ahad3r 4arg3o5lu

MET6 !ivil Engineering .epartment

.r" #orman &" &*rahamson

PG7E, Senior Seismologist

h G7 d ti di ti d l h * d t d i

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he G7 ground motion prediction models ha)e *een adopted in

the P+H7 studies in acti)e tectonic regions all around the world.

ue to the limitations o the PEE/>G7 project and the missing

parameters in he ur!e- GM dataset# a )er- small num*er o

ground motions recorded during the earthqua!es occurred inur!e- was included in the G7 >W4 data*ase ("hiou# $%%N'

Event #ame%I.' 8ear Mw &7S9; 27&9; !729; !789; Idriss9;

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data*ase with complete source metadata and recordingstation inormation was diTcult to esta*lish during theproject.

= sets o ground motions recorded during the earthqua!es

occurred in ur!e- *etween >?-9 were gathered anddeli)ered through the project we*>site.

daphne"deprem"gov"tr

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he o*@ectiveso this stud- are1e)eloping an up>to>date dataset that

includes all possi*le source inormation or thee)ents (moment magnitude# st-le o aulting#depth# ra!e and dip angles' and siteinormation or the recording stations.

"hallenging due to missing inormation

/ecent earthqua!es,,

sing the de)eloped dataset# e)aluate theregional e9ects *- comparing the magnitude#distance and site e9ects scaling o ur!ishstrong ground motions and that o the G7>W4 models.

Modi-ing the G7>W4 GMPEs or P+H7 studiesconducted in ur!e-.

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The starting point: TSGM %.aphne' .ata*ase

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Ahile we check thetime histories wesee that somerecordings have atime lag *etweenthe EA and #S

componentsC

he time historieswere chec!ed or

data qualit- andCN recordings wereeliminated romthe dataset due tospi!e# insuTcient

digiti:er resolution#multi>e)ent or +>wa)e triggerpro*lems.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35-4

-2

0

2

4

Acceleration(cm/s2)

North-South

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35-4

-2

0

2

4

East-WestAcceleration(cm/s2)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Vertical

ime (s)

Acceleration(cm/s2)

Ahat did we doB

Time lag: Ahat did we doB

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Time lag: Ahat did we doBhis time lag results rom theseparate a>causal low>cut flteringapplied to the components o the

record *- adding :ero pads indi9erent lengths.

o calculate the orientationindependent ground motion intensit-measures (GM/ot

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0inal chec!s and dataset1

istance metrics with G7>W4 data*aseGm/otW4 data*aseepth to top estimation

eclustering (han!s to Satie Woddell rom PGQE'

Methodolog-1 /andom E9ects /egression

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e odo og- a do ec s eg ess o

/esidual MeanK9set

E)enterm

E)ent/esidual

ijkjkkijkijkijk cpaR ++== )ln()ln(

STEPS >- GMPES:

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STEPS > GMPES:

*servation:hemagnitude scaling othe ur!ish dataset isdrasticall- di9erent that

the G7>W4 modelsand this eature needsto *e f3ed to considerthe models applica*lein ur!e-.

2ut: Preser)ing the

well>constrained pieceso the model is critical#since the largemagnitude earthqua!esare poorl- representedin the ur!ish datasetand an- changes onlarge magnitude

parameters will ha)e amajor impact on theha:ard calculations

STEPS >- GMPES: SD6TI#

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Please note that: +elected adjustment unction a9ects the magnitude scaling or onl- small

and moderate e)ents# thereore the well>constrained large magnitudescaling o the models are not modifed.

he coeTcient can *e used to modi- the original model coeTcients or

4L7 term can *e added to the GMPE indi)iduall-.

7n adjustmentunction isadded to the

G7>W4 modelsor ur!e-,

Hinge magnitude Mw.&8(or (.8'

he coeTcientdetermined *-regression or each

model separatel-

7*rahamson and +il)a ($%%N'1

[ ]

[ ]

>++++

++++=

)()ln()()5.!()(

)()ln()()5.!()()"(

1132

2

!151

1132

2

!141

1

cMforRcMaaMacMaa

cMforRcMaaMacMaaRMf rup

STEPS >- GMPES:

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"orrected,

ntouched,

STEPS =-: .IST!E S!&DI#G F #G&-A> GMPES . D&(GE .IST!EEFFE!TS:

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*servation: G7>W4 models slightl-

underestimate theground motions inthe ur!ishcomparison datasetor rupture distanceswithin the range o4%%>$%% !m.

2ut:he distancescaling o B7%N#"B%N and GMPES . D&(GE .IST!EEFFE!TS:

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EFFE!TS:

Please note that: +elected adjustment unction a9ects the distance scaling ater 4%% !m6s#

thereore the well>constrained short distance scaling o the models are notmodifed.

he coeTcient is used to modi- the original model coeTcients o 7+%Nmodel *ut

$L7term is added to the "=%N model indi)iduall-.

7n adjustmentunction isadded to the

7+%N and "=%Nmodels or

ur!e-,

he coeTcientdetermined *-regression or each

model separatel-

7*rahamson and +il)a ($%%N'1

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STEPS =-: .IST!E S!&DI#G F #G&-A> GMPES . D&(GE .IST!EEFFE!TS:

"orrected,ntouched,

STEPS =-: SITE EFFE!TS S!&DI#G F #G&-A> GMPES:

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*servations: 7+%N#B7%N# "B%N and "=%N

models under predictthe ground motions inthe ur!e- comparisondataset at sti9soil@engineering roc!sites.

he trends in theresiduals or B7%N and"B%N models arenegligi*le *ut or7+%N and "=%Nmodels# whichincluded theatershoc!s in theirdatasets# theunderestimation ismore noticea*le.

o trend is o*ser)ed

in

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STEPS =-: SITE EFFE!TS S!&DI#G F #G&-A> GMPES:

"orrected,

ntouched,

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STEP : (EM&I#I#G ME FFSETS . THE !#STT TE(MS F #G&-A>GMPES

Beoreadjustme

nts

7teradjustme

nts

!MP&(IS# AITH THE( GD2&D M.EDS

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M8# 4%#+oil

M8# 4%#/oc!

M 4%#

/oc!

M 4%#

+oil

!MP&(IS# AITH THE( GD2&D M.EDS

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M 4%#+oil

M 4%#/oc!

M 48%# M 48%#

!MP&(IS# AITH (EGI#&D M.EDS : &44&( . &J# 9>M.ED

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M.ED

M8# 4%#+oil

M8# 4%#/oc!

M 4%# M 4%#

!MP&(IS# AITH (EGI#&D M.EDS : &44&( . &J# 9> M.ED

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M 4%#+oil

M 4%#/oc!

M 48%# M 48%#

+ummar- and "onclusions1

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he ur!ish ground motions are poorl- represented in G7>W4data*ase or se)eral reasons.

aphne +GM data*ase and processed time histories were modifed

or comparison.sing the random>e9ects regression with a constant term# model

residuals *etween the actual strong motion data and G7>W4 modelpredictions are calculated or each recording in the comparisondataset.

Plots o the residuals are used to e)aluate the di9erences in the

magnitude# distance# and site amplifcation scaling *etween theur!ish data set and the G7>W4 models.

Model residuals indicated that the ground motions in the dataset areo)erestimated *- all 8 G7>W4 models especiall- or small>to>moderate magnitude earthqua!es.

W4 models up to4%% !ms.

DsC% scaling is compati*le up to 8%%>%% m@s# linear DsC% scalingterms o the models should *e modifed.

8 new models or ur!e- (/>7djusted G7>W4 models' is pu*lished inEarth ua!e + ectra.

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Prediction peormance o G7>W4 Models at PG71

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B7 $%%N "B $%%N

W4 Models at PG71

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7+ $%%N

"= $%%N

Prediction peormance o G7>W4 Models at 4 sec1

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B7 $%%N "B $%%N

W4 Models at 4 sec1

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7+ $%%N

"= $%%N

Kcto*er $C# $%44 Dan>a*anlV Earthqua!e (MW&.4'

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/e)ersemechanism (rare in

ur!e-'Knl- C recordingswithin $%% !m rom

the mainshoc! 0igure ta!en rom GXlerce et al.#

Prediction peormance o G7>W4 Models at PG71

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B7 $%%N "B $%%N

W4 Models at PG71

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7+ $%%N

"= $%%N

Prediction peormance o G7>W4 Models at 4 sec1

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B7 $%%N "B $%%N

W4 Models at 4 sec1

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7+ $%%N

"= $%%N

+ummar- and "onclusions1 E9ect on Ha:ard

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7dapa:arVEG7/oc!7dapa:arV

!

&nnual(ate o E$ceedence7dapa:arVEG7+oil7dapa:arV/ EG7 + il

&nnual (ate o E$ceedence