PROGRAMME BLANC

EDITION 2011

Projet DECAF

DOCUMENT SCIENTIFIQUE

Important Ce document, hors annexes, ne doit pas dépasser 40 pages, corps de texte en

police de taille 11. Ce point constitue un critère de recevabilité de la proposition de projet. Les propositions de projets ne satisfaisant pas aux critères de

recevabilité ne seront pas évaluées.

Nom et prénom du coordinateur / coordinator’s name

Hourdin Frédéric

Acronyme / Acronym Decaf

Titre de la proposition de projet

Rôle des processus couplés sol-atmosphère dans les variations DECennales de la mousson en AFrique de l'Ouest

Proposal title Role of coupled land-atmosphere processes in the DECadal variations of the West AFrican Monsoon

Comité d’évaluation / Evaluation committee

SIM5-6

Projet multidisciplinaire / multidisciplinary proposal

OUI NONSi oui, indiquer un comité secondaire :

Type de recherche / Type of research

Recherche Fondamentale / Basic Research Recherche Industrielle / Industrial Research Développement Expérimental / Experimental Development

Coopération internationale / International cooperation

OUI NON

Aide totale demandée / Grant requested

xxxxxx €Durée de la proposition de projet / Proposal duration

xx mois

ANR-GUI-AAP-04 – Doc Scientifique 2011 1/59

PROGRAMME BLANC

EDITION 2011

Projet DECAF

DOCUMENT SCIENTIFIQUE

1. RÉSUME DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / PROPOSAL ABSTRACT.....................82. CONTEXTE, POSITIONNEMENT ET OBJECTIFS DE LA PROPOSITION / CONTEXT,

POSITIONNING AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSAL.....................................92.1. Contexte de la proposition de projet / Context of the proposal .......................92.2. État de l'art et position de la proposition de projet / state of the art and

positionning of the proposal......................................................................132.3. Objectifs et caractère ambitieux et/ou novateur de la proposition de projet /

Objectives, originality and/or novelty of the proposal...............................163. PROGRAMME SCIENTIFIQUE ET TECHNIQUE, ORGANISATION DE LA PROPOSITION

DE PROJET / SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PROGRAMME, PROPOSAL ORGANISATION.................................................................................19

3.1. Programme scientifique, structuration de la proposition de projet/ Scientific programme, proposal structure................................................................19

3.2. Description des travaux par tâche / Description by task................................263.2.1 Tâche 1 / Task 1 263.2.2 Task 2 273.2.3 Task 3 293.2.4 Task 4 323.2.5 Task 5 34

3.3. Calendrier des tâches, livrables et jalons / Tasks schedule, deliverables and milestones................................................................................................37

4. STRATÉGIE DE VALORISATION, DE PROTECTION ET D’EXPLOITATION DES RÉSULTATS / DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATION OF RESULTS, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY........................................................................................40

5. DESCRIPTION DU PARTENARIAT / CONSORTIUM DESCRIPTION .......................415.1. Description, adéquation et complémentarité des partenaires / Partners

description and relevance, complementarity............................................415.2. Qualification du coordinateur de la proposition de projet/ Qualification of the

proposal coordinator.................................................................................435.3. Qualification, rôle et implication des participants / Qualification and

contribution of each partner.....................................................................436. JUSTIFICATION SCIENTIFIQUE DES MOYENS DEMANDÉS / SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION

OF REQUESTED RESSOURCES...............................................................466.1. Partenaire 1 / Partner 1: LMD .......................................................................466.2. Partenaire 2 / Partner 2: CNRM......................................................................486.3. Partenaire 3 / Partner 3: CRC.........................................................................49

7. ANNEXES / ANNEXES...........................................................................507.1. Références bibliographiques / References.....................................................507.2. Biographies / CV, resume..............................................................................567.3. Implication des personnes dans d’autres contrats / Staff involvment in other

contracts...................................................................................................57

ANR-GUI-AAP-04 – Doc Scientifique 2011 2/59

Avant de soumettre ce document :- Supprimer toutes les instructions en rouge (par exemple en faisant Format

Styles Menu contextuel du style « Instructions » Sélectionner toutes les occurrences suppr.)

- Mettre la table des matières à jour (bouton droit sur la table des matières mettre à jour les champs Mettre à jour toute la table).

- Donner toutes les références bibliographiques en annexe 7.1.

- Ce document, hors annexes, ne doit pas dépasser 40 pages, corps de texte en police de taille 11. Ce point constitue un critère de recevabilité de la proposition de projet.

1. RÉSUME DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / PROPOSAL ABSTRACTRecopier le résumé utilisé dans le document administratif et financier (dit document de soumission).

The main objective of the DECAF project is to study the decadal variations of the West-African climate, both in the past - with the severe drought of the 1970s-1980s, preceded by the wet 1950s-1960s and followed by a partial recovery in the 1990s-2000s - and in the future climate projections. The understanding of the role of coupled land-atmosphere processes in these climate variations will be a major focus of the project. The project will rely on the analysis of numerical simulations performed in the frame of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and Cordex (COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment) projects on which the next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report will be founded. A characterization of the decadal variations of the African Monsoon will be carried out with the observations available for the last decades. This will provide a frame for comparing observed and simulated climate variations. The multi-model comparisons of the CMIP and Cordex simulations will allow to identify which elements of the models are robust, which may give rise to model based interpretation, and what the major model deficiencies are. From the cross analysis of the various configurations (atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature, long control simulations with coupled ocean-atmosphere models as well as climate change simulations and decadal prediction simulations), it will be possible: 1) to evaluate the models in terms of representation of the West-African monsoon; 2) to evaluate coupled models in terms of representation of the decadal variability and 3) to discriminate the internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system from the trends associated with global anthropogenic forcings. Identification of the role of coupled land-atmosphere processes will be based on intermediate complexity simulations performed with the LMDZ and WRF global and regional (respectively) atmospheric models coupled to various land surface models. A seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature will be prescribed, without inter-annual variability, both for a wet and for a dry decade. The understanding of the response of rainfall to sea surface temperature, as well as the identification of the role of coupled land-atmosphere processes, will be conducted on the basis of existing, and also new simulations using the same protocol but distinct versions of the atmospheric physics and surface scheme. In particular the feedback loop through surface humidity will be cut in a set of simulations. A central and original element of the project will be to put observations of the land-atmosphere interface variables in front of the virtual and approximate world of climate models. The systematic observation of those surface variables was initiated during the AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) project, with in particular the deployment of eddy flux towers in the Benin, Niger and Mali AMMA super-sites, in order to

document the meridional structure of the monsoon. Based on a multi-variate statistical analysis of those surface variables, the coupled land-atmosphere processes will be characterized, from the convective event scale to the intra-seasonal and inter-annual scales for the few years available. The link with longer time scales will be addressed on the basis of observations for which longer series are available (rainfall, humidity, air surface temperature, and top-of-atmosphere fluxes).Evaluation of the IPCC climate models and improvement of the physical content of climate models will be major elements of the project.

2. CONTEXTE, POSITIONNEMENT ET OBJECTIFS DE LA PROPOSITION / CONTEXT, POSITIONNING AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSAL

A titre indicatif : de 1 à 10 pages pour ce chapitre.Présentation générale du problème qu’il est proposé de traiter dans la proposition de projet et du cadre de travail (recherche fondamentale, industrielle ou développement expérimental).

2.1. CONTEXTE DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / CONTEXT OF THE PROPOSAL Décrire le contexte et les enjeux éventuels (industriels, économiques, sociaux, réglementaires, médicaux, environnementaux, …) dans lequel (lesquels) se situe la proposition de projet. Présenter une analyse de la pertinence et de la portée par rapport aux besoins.

The Sahelian drought. The Sahel, the transition region between the wet tropical climate of the coast of Gulf of Guinea and the Sahara desert, is the region of the planet that has undergone the largest modifications of its rainfall regime during the last decades (Trenberth et al. 2007). The severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s had huge consequences on the local eco-systems and societies. The explanation for this strong climate decadal variation is still an open question and is a major motivation of this proposal.

Impact of global warming. The future evolution of climate under the effect of greenhouse gaz increase, in this particularly sensitive region, is essentially unknown. The climate projections performed with state-of-the-art climate models in the frame of the CMIP that serve as a basis for the IPCC reports (Solomon et al., 2007), show a very large dispersion in terms of rainfall trends in that region : about the same number of models predict a drier or a wetter climate in Sahel.

Fig 1 : Evolution of the summer rainfall in the CMIP3 (IPCC-AR4) climate change simulations. There is a general reinforcement of the contrasts in the tropics with drier subtropical anti-cyclonic band (red) and a moister (blue) inter-tropical zone. Note the poor agreement among models over West Africa.

The next IPCC-AR5 report will rely on simulations which are performed now (2010-2011)

in the main climate centers around the world. Joint to the CMIP5 exercise, with global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models, there will be a coordinated exercise of “down-scaling” with regional models (Cordex), and the main initial focus of this exercise will be Africa. It is presumable that the dispersion of the coming simulations will be as large (or probably even larger due to the larger variety of models) than for the previous IPCC report.

There is a huge expectation for those simulations from those who want to foresee the possible consequences of climate change on eco-systems and societies. However, if an important effort is not done to assess for which reason some models predict more rainfall in the future, and others less, and to try to improve the physical content of the models, the frustration may be at the level of the expectations. One important path to address this issue is to understand the contribution of natural variability, global warming or other forcing (in particular land-use and aerosols) to the recent decadal evolution of the West-African monsoon.

The AMMA project. The international African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project, originally developed from a French initiative, was supported by several European Countries (with a strong contribution from French Agencies in the frame of AMMA-API) and by the European Commission (in the frame of the AMMA-EU FP6 project). AMMA had for general objectives the improvement of our understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability, from synoptic to inter-annual scales. The project was motivated by the large variability of precipitation associated with the monsoon system, and by their consequences for the food security, water resources and health. An enormous effort was done in terms of observations, reinforcement of networks and dedicated intensive observing periods (SOPs) during summer 2006. This campaign resulted in some important improvements in our understanding of key processes in the monsoon climate system. Evaluation and improvement of climate models, embedded from the beginning in the AMMA project, gave rise to the AMMA-Model Inter-comparison Program (AMMA-MIP). The AMMA-MIP exercise showed some ability of the atmospheric global and regional numerical climate models to represent the seasonal cycle of the rainfall over West-Africa, but also the large dispersion of simulated rainfall distribution over the Sahel (Hourdin et al., 2010, Ruti et al., 2010). One important finding was that the dispersion seems to be even greater in terms of fluxes (radiative, sensible and latent) at the surface, variables which were not measured in that region before the campaign. The dispersion and biases in terms of rainfall distribution and fluxes is also as large in regional models used for downscaling or in high resolution weather forecast models as in climate simulations, and are due for a large part to the approximate representation of atmospheric and coupled atmosphere-surface processes. These findings in part motivate the present proposal. One important aspect of the AMMA project was also to promote the link between climate sciences and so-called “impact studies”. The Escape project, an ANR funded trans-disciplinary project, is a direct follow-up of this AMMA strategy. It is centered on the historical analysis of environmental changes of the last decades in West Africa, in link with climate reconstructions, as well as on relationships between climate an crop potential.

The IPCC schedule. The results of the new climate simulations coordinated in the framework of the CMIP5 and Cordex exercises will be made available to the international community soon (first half of year 2011 for CMIP and end of 2011 for Cordex). The scientific teams have to quickly analyze the simulations and submit papers in the next years, if they want to contribute to the IPCC AR5 report. AMMA-MIP is a very appropriate framework to evaluate those new simulations in terms of the representation of the West-African climate and of the coupled land-atmosphere processes, and to make a full exploitation of the huge effort supported in particular by the AMMA-France and AMMA-EU programs, in terms of observations. In fact, under the leadership of the AMMA-MIP team, specific sites were selected for the documentation at high frequency of the climate models output, on the AMMA-transect.

Teams and tools : a new maturity. Also in terms of observations, a step has been made, both for satellites, with in particular the constellation of the Aqua-train, and for surface measurements, with the deployment of surface stations with eddy-flux and radiation measurements. 12 eddy flux towers were deployed on the AMMA transect during 2005 and 2006 instead of nothing. This gives for the first time direct constraints on the surface fluxes, key variables to assess the realism of the representation of physical processes in the climate models (Ramier et al. 2009, Slingo et al. 2009, Guichard et al. 2009, Timouk et al. 2009, Lohou et al. 2010). The physical content of numerical climate models, had been a little bit abandoned in the past decades to concentrate on the building of complex coupled so-called Earth-System-Models. However, this physical content has been greatly improved recently. It is true especially for the LMDZ model which will be used in this project (Rio et Hourdin, 2008, Rio et al., 2009, Rio et al., 2010, Grandpeix et Lafore, 2010, Grandpeix et al., 2010). During the AMMA program, major steps have been made also in the understanding of the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon system, and its link with global modes of the tropical variability (Pohl et al. 2009, Pohl and Douville 2010, Janicot et al. 2010).

Last important point : the AMMA program has been a unique occasion to put together communities which were not familiar to work together. We think in particular that the ambitious objectives we want to address here, require expertizes in tropical variability, in atmosphere and land-atmosphere coupled processes and their observations, and in numerical climate modeling (the project involves experts in global and regional climate modeling, atmospheric parameterizations, land surface models, and aerosol modeling).

General positioning of the project. In that context of the new CMIP exercise arriving just after the end of the major phase of the AMMA program, we propose a project that we hope could be a major contribution to the understanding of climate variations in West Africa. The general objectives will be :

• To make a real benefit of the AMMA observations to assess the CMIP and Cordex simulations, in particular in terms of variables at the land-atmosphere interface and impact of new physics developments.

• Make a major step forward in the understanding of the origin of the decadal variations for the West African monsoon (natural variability, greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing, or role of land use) and more particularly of the role of land-atmosphere processes and feedbacks.

This project will be complementary to the Escape project, funded by ANR CEP&S, which is focused on the historical reconstruction of the climate of the past decades in link with environmental changes and agriculture. In terms of outcomes for the CMIP and Cordex exercises, both projects will contribute to build the indispensable expertise concerning the confidence and uncertainties that can be attributed to the climate projections : the Escape project will provide downstream evaluation of the scenarios with respect to their ability to reproduce past decades observations, and promoting “impact oriented” evaluation while the Decaf project will promote process-oriented evaluation in link with model content. The last approach is of course essential when wanting to go, beyond model evaluation, to model improvements.

2.2. ÉTAT DE L'ART ET POSITION DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / STATE OF THE ART AND POSITIONNING OF THE PROPOSAL

Présenter un état de l’art national et international en dressant l’état des connaissances sur le sujet, y inclure les éventuelles contributions des

partenaires. Positionner la proposition de projet par rapport à ces connaissances.Indiquer si la proposition de projet s’inscrit dans la continuité de projet(s) antérieur(s) déjà financé(s) par l’ANR. Dans ce cas, présenter brièvement les résultats acquis.Faire apparaître d’éventuels résultats préliminaires. Inclure les références bibliographiques nécessaires en annexe 7.1.

Fig 2 : A model ling study of the decadal variation of annual rainfall over the Sahel (Zeng et al., 1999).

Decadal climate variations in West-Africa. The Sahel cumulated precipitation showed a very marked decadal variability during the 20th century (Fig 2, panel A), with a great negative trend between wet conditions in the 1950s and 1960s to very dry ones in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by a partial recovery in the 1990s and 2000s (Lebel and Ali 2009). Previous and more recent works (Le Barbé et al. 2002, Lebel and Ali 2009) have shown that the rainfall regime difference at decadal scale over the period 1950-1990 has been characterized by a lower occurrence of rainfall events during the drought period, and a modification of both rainfall event occurrence and mean rainfall per event during the period 1990-2007. A number of studies have highlighted the role of sea surface temperatures (SST) in driving such variability (Folland et al. 1986, Palmer 1986, Giannini et al. 2003). Some studies also suggest that the world-wide warming trend of SSTs, associated with the global warming trend, may be related to the Sahel drying, highlighting the dominant role of the tropical Indian (Bader and Latif 2003, Giannini 2003, Lu and Delworth 2005) and tropical Pacific (Lu and Delworth 2005, Caminade and Terray 2009). Nevertheless, over the whole 20 th century, the Sahel precipitation decadal changes cannot be solely explained by the global warming trend of SST. First anthropogenic aerosols have probably impacted the SST evolution on the

decadal scale through their direct and indirect effect (cloud albedo and cloud life time), enhancing the shift to a Sahel drought (Rotstayn and Lohmann 2002). Second, desert dust that originates from Sahara and Sahel can also have an impact on SSTs when it is advected westward above the tropical Atlantic (Foltz and McPhaden 2008a, 2008b). The recent partial recovery of rainfall in West Africa may be attributed to a combination of the global warming signal and of the internal multi-decadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean and more precisely to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. This AMO is connected to the oceanic thermohaline circulation (Knight et al., 2005) and could be forced as well as a metronome by the external solar and volcanic activity (Ottera et al., 2010)( In this scenario, Atlantic SST strengthened the Sahel drying induced by warming of the oceans when in a phase that favored a southward location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the 1970s and 1980s, but are now in a configuration favorable for Sahel rainfall, hence they are partially counteracting the drying trend associated with global warming (Ting et al 2009, Mohino et al. 2009) -or a return towards pre-industrial aerosols with a weaker hemispheric gradients in forcing from anthropogenic aerosols. Those expectations are not confirmed however by the results of the CMIP3 exercise for the IPCC-AR4 report which essentially show no agreement among models, even on the sign of the rainfall trends over Sahel (Fig 1). The Saharan and Sahel dust, whose emissions are partly linked to the land conditions through the variations of the vegetation coverage (either from climatic or land-use changes), might also have an important and direct role on the African monsoon decadal variability through its radiative impact (Yoshioka et al. 2007).

Role of land-atmosphere interactions at decadal scales. We know since the pioneer work of Charney (1975) that land-atmosphere interactions can also play a significant role in the West African monsoon decadal variability, even if it seems to act mainly as an amplification of the SST forcing signal (Zeng et al. 1999, from which the Fig 2 above is taken ; Giannini et al. 2003). The divergence of CMIP3 projections of future rainfall change in the Sahel cannot be attributed to the simulated spatial patterns of SST change (Biasuttti et al. 2008) and could be due to differences in the response of the land surface directly related to the local interactions of precipitation, evaporation and anthropogenic influence on radiative forcing at the surface (Giannini 2009). Giannini (2009) also shows that correlations between surface variables (evaporation and temperature, radiation and rainfall, etc.) at decadal scales are different if one considers the internal variability or the trends associated with climate changes. Moreover, correlations between these surface variables are also quite different for the global warming trends when considering models with either a wetter or a drier future climate over the Sahel. These results, obtained on a few sets of models, are one of the strong motivations of the present project.

Some theories have related the monsoon flux to the latitudinal gradient of near surface moist static energy (Eltahir and Gong 1996). This requires analysis of thermodynamics variables and net radiation in both models and observations, in order to test such hypothesis, and to assess how this would change in a context of the decadal variability. Anthropogenic land use pressure has been rather strong over the last 60 years through desertification in the Sahel and also deforestation in the southern countries (Ivory Coast,…). On the other hand, the last two decades have shown a re-greening of the Sahel (Eklundh et Olsson 2003, Anyamba et Tucker 2005) which has also certainly impacted albedo and the surface energy budget, hence the latitudinal gradient of near-surface energy. Current representation of land surface fails to simulate the different time-scales involved in land surface energy budget variability (Samain et al. 2008). Therefore, AR4 models likely differ in their treatment of the surface energy balance. In terms of climate change, it has been shown that the average 2m temperature was related to the precipitation amount (Douville 2006). Recent studies however (Guichard unpublished) imply that there is a clear and strong temperature trend prior to the monsoon onset in the observations over the Sahel. This implies that models also need accurate simulation of radiative processes, aerosols, monsoon pulses (Couvreux et al. 2010) within the seasonal cycle. This may be an important step for accurate climate change simulations.

At shorter time-scales, the GLACE project has confirmed that the sub-Saharan region has a very high land-atmosphere sensitivity, whose amplitude is also highly variable depending on the climate models (Koster et al. 2004). The causes of such variations in coupling strength are linked to the ability of soil moisture to affect precipitation mainly through the control of evaporation, an evaporation rate that varies strongly and consistently with soil moisture leading to a higher coupling strength (Guo et al. 2006).Most studies suggest a positive feedback between surface soil moisture, vegetation and rainfall. However, there is an emerging awareness of the role of locally coupled surface-boundary layer processes, which can also lead to negative feedbacks. In short, a dry surface coupled to a thick convective layer can be more favorable than a wet surface to the triggering of deep convection (Findell and Eltahir, 2003, Hohenegger et al 2009, Taylor and Ellis 2006, Wang et al. 2009, Lothon et al. 2010). Furthermore, AMMA highlighted the impact of mesoscale gradients of soil moisture on mesoscale low-level circulations and convection initiation and propagation, and the complexity of soil moisture – convection feedback loops at the different stages of the convective systems life cycle (Taylor et al. 2007, Gaertner et al. 2009, Gantner and Kalthoff 2009, Taylor et al. 2009, Gounou et al. 2009), but the link with decadal scales was not explored.The AMMA program also helped to improve our understanding of the variability at intra-seasonal time scales (Pohl et al., 2009, Janicot et al. 2010), intermediate between the synoptic scale and longer inter-annual or decadal scales : three main modes of variability have been highlighted during the summer, a quasi-stationary mode over the Guinean area and a westward propagating mode of the Sahel at a quasi-biweekly scale, and a westward propagating mode at a 40-day scale linked to the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) events over the Indian sector. They have a regional extension and represent an envelope modulating the activity of individual mesoscale convective systems. These modes appear to be controlled both by internal atmospheric dynamics and land-atmosphere and radiation-atmosphere interaction processes (Taylor 2008, Lavender et al. 2009).

Climate modeling of the African monsoon. Numerical simulation with so-called general circulation models has become a central tool in the understanding of the climate variability and mechanisms. It is the only way to test theoretical or conceptual models of a particular processes, in its coupling with the rest of the climate system and taking into account climate variability. Those models are however a very approximate representation of the reality. One reason for that is the limitation of computer power which limits in turn the effective spatial resolution of the climate simulations to a few tens to thousands of km. Smaller scales (which include all the turbulent, convective and cloud processes) must be represented through a set of approximate equations accounting for the averaged effect of those processes on the explicit model variables. As a consequence, the climate is only approximately represented in the models and the evaluation and improvement of climate models is a constant effort in the community. Evaluation of climate models over West-Africa was among the objectives of the AMMA program and led to the design of the AMMA Model Inter-comparison Program (AMMA-MIP, http://amma-mip.lmd.jussieu.fr, Hourdin et al. 2010).

Fig 3 : The AMMA/AMMA-MIP framework.The map shows the annual cumulated rainfall from GPCP (mm) showing the stronger latitudinal than longitudinal variations as well as the location of the AMMA super-sites in Benin, Niger and Mali (from South to North) and the longitude band (10W-10E) retained to compare zonally averaged structure in the AMMA-MIP inter-comparison.

Because of the zonal symmetry of the monsoon system (illustrated by the structure of the cumulated rainfall in Fig 3), one major goal was to document the meridional structures during the successive phases of the monsoon. In terms of observations, the documentation of the Benin-Niger-Mali transect with surface observations at 3 super-sites (green boxes in Fig 3) and reinforcement of sounding networks or deployment of rainfall radars was aimed at documenting this meridional structure (Redelsperger et al. 2006). Following this idea, AMMA-MIP was in part dedicated to model evaluation in terms of zonally averaged structures (on the region 10W-10E, red box in Fig 3)). The inter-comparison showed that the four climate global models involved within AMMA were able to capture the main seasonal migration of rainfall over Sahel together with a significant intra-seasonal variation, associated with a reasonable representation of the mean zonal wind (Hourdin et al, 2010). In more details however, there is still a large dispersion in the cumulated rainfall over Sahel, part of this dispersion being attributable to a general northward or southward shift of the monsoon system. Preliminary comparisons with surface measurements at the super-sites revealed also significant biases in radiative, latent and sensible fluxes. Improvement of the representation of those surface variables in numerical models is one objective of the project. In the AMMA-MIP framework, the climate models tested were forced by imposed sea-surface temperatures. Note that the models involved in the CMIP exercises are coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The coupling introduces new errors which results in large biases in the representation of the sea surface temperature. Those biases in turn induce large biases in the representation of the mean rainfall over the Sahel (Cook and Vizy, 2006).

2.3. OBJECTIFS ET CARACTÈRE AMBITIEUX ET/OU NOVATEUR DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / OBJECTIVES, ORIGINALITY AND/OR NOVELTY OF THE PROPOSAL

Décrire les objectifs de la proposition de projet et détailler les verrous scientifiques et techniques à lever par la réalisation du projet. Insister sur le caractère ambitieux et/ou novateur de la proposition.Présenter les résultats escomptés et décrire l’(les) éventuel(s) produit(s) final(aux) développé(s).Pour les projets multidisciplinaires, préciser dans quelle mesure l’interaction entre les deux disciplines présente un aspect ambitieux et/ou novateur.

Scientific objectives and questions :

The two main scientific objectives of the project is to investigate the links between decadal climate variations of the African monsoon and the land-atmosphere coupled processes, and to examine the capability of state-of-the-art global or regional climate models to address these questions.

For that, we must first better determine the fingerprint of the decadal variability : how does it modulate the seasonal cycle of temperature, humidity, rainfall and surface fluxes on the continent? How does it modulate the life cycle, intensity and the frequency of the mesoscale systems, the intra-seasonal modes of convection? Do the climate models reproduce similar features? What has happened during the recent rainfall recovery with respect to the preceding drought?

We must then determine the relative contribution of coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, internal atmospheric variability, and coupled processes at the land surface, to the decadal variations of the seasonal distribution of rainfall over West Africa. What are the SST patterns linked to the long term increase in greenhouse gas concentration and to the evolution of sulfate aerosols? How does volcanoes activity modulate decadal SST variations? How these SST patterns impact the African monsoon? Does the internal atmospheric variability (that is independent of any SST forcing) belong to a large scale dynamics or is it mainly controlled by local land-atmosphere processes? What are the key processes responsible for the coupling between the monsoon system and land surface? What is the main time scale of the land memory effects? How do evaporation and monsoon circulation (moisture convergence) contribute to rainfall depending on the intensity of the various rainfall events? Do Sahel and Saharan dust modulated by the vegetation coverage impact strongly the African monsoon? Does the anthropogenic land use influence decadal rainfall variability in West Africa? Is it possible to constrain the simulated decadal variations due to both internal variability of the climate system and global warming trends with the available observations (super-sites and satellites for short term processes, and long term observations for the link between short term and decadal scales)?

Objectives and work to be done:The investigation of the decadal variability and role of land-atmosphere coupled processes will be based on 1) the analysis of CMIP and Cordex climate simulations, 2) the realization and analysis of dedicated long term simulations with intermediate complexity versions of the LMDZ climate model, and 3) the study of land-atmosphere coupled processes with global (LMDZ) and regional (WRF) numerical models as well as conceptual models. As for observations, we will use long term records on the last decades and in-situ observations of land-atmosphere interface variables on the AMMA super-sites.An important aspect of the project concerns the evaluation of the CMIP, Cordex, LMDZ and WRF simulations based on the AMMA-MIP diagnostics, and on new dedicated diagnostics based on correlations between the surface variables observed at the super-sites, as well as the improvement of the representation of atmospheric and land-atmosphere coupled processes in climate models. It will be a unique opportunity to promote to a large community the huge amount of observations recorded during the AMMA campaign.

Expected results:They are of three types : a better understanding of the decadal variability of the monsoon system, and of the role of coupled land-atmosphere processes in those variations ; assessment of the CMIP5 control and climate change simulations in terms of the representation of the African Monsoon both for the representation of present climate, for the representation of decadal variations and for the representation of surface variables ; improvement of climate models concerning the representation of surface fluxes and coupled land-surface processes.

Novelty:The past studies on the understanding of the decadal variations of the African Monsoon and role of land surface processes are not so numerous and they have been done with numerical climate models (cf. Sec 2.1). Because of the lack of direct measurement of surface fluxes, the link with real coupled land-atmosphere processes was essentially not addressed.

A major originality of the present project will be to combine climate modeling (based on comprehensive but approximate representation of the real climate) with real surface observations. Compared to past experiments (e.g. HAPEX-Sahel), this project is unique in targeting the model-data comparison over a latitude transect at time scales ranging from 30 minutes to several decades. This allows to evaluate short time-scale processes, like the response of surface fluxes to a rainfall event, in both data and model, intra-seasonal and seasonal variability of latitudinal energy gradients. It also allows contrasting wet year or wet period composites with dry years or dry periods.

Fig 4: Time series of 10-day mean surface incoming radiative flux (Rin = SWin + LWin, upper black line) and outgoing radiative (Rup = LWup + SWup, lower black curve), and rainfall per event (black bars); the vertical thickness of the grey shaded area enclosed within the two black curves gives the magnitude of the surface net radiation (Rnet) –lower black bars are rainfall per event (right y-axis) – from Guichard et al. (2009).

Figure 4 provides an illustration of the seasonal cycle of upwelling (lower curve) and incoming (upper curve) radiative fluxes in the Central Sahel (Gourma site in Mali). The thickness of the grey shading in between gives the magnitude of surface net radiation. Outside of the rainy season (locally delineated by lower black bars corresponding to rainfall per event), net radiation is low. From January until May, it only slightly increases, despite an increasingly high incoming radiative flux. This is related to the low capacity of the coupled surface-atmosphere system to efficiently trap the top of the atmosphere increasingly high solar influx, until the atmosphere becomes moist. On the other hand, the incoming radiative flux does not evolve much during the monsoon. However, a large enhancement of net radiation, and thus of total surface sensible plus latent heat flux, actually occurs, driven by the upwelling surface radiative flux. The later is explained by changes in the albedo, linked to vegetation phenology (Samain et al. 2008), but also, substantially, by a cooling of the surface during the monsoon.

The simulation of vertical transfer of water and energy (strength of the 1D land-atmosphere coupling) as well as the simulation of latitudinal gradients will greatly depend on correct simulations of such surface processes. Systematic observations as the one presented on Figure 4 were not available over the African continent prior to the AMMA

campaign. The first systematic measurements of the surface energy budget gradient between the Soudanian zone and the Sahara at the AMMA super-sites started in 2005 when flux towers were installed. They clearly contain a lot of information, covering the gradient at multiannual timescales over West Africa and open a new area of investigation on the land-atmosphere processes and new perspectives for the evaluation and improvement of climate models.

3. PROGRAMME SCIENTIFIQUE ET TECHNIQUE, ORGANISATION DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET / SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PROGRAMME, PROPOSAL ORGANISATION

A titre indicatif : de 5 à 12 pages pour ce chapitre, en fonction du nombre de tâches.Les tâches représentent les grandes phases du projet. Elles sont en nombre limité. La première tâche correspond à une tâche de coordination.

3.1. PROGRAMME SCIENTIFIQUE, STRUCTURATION DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET/ SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME, PROPOSAL STRUCTURE

Présenter le programme scientifique et justifier la décomposition en tâches du programme de travail en cohérence avec les objectifs poursuivis. Utiliser un diagramme pour présenter les liens entre les différentes tâches (organigramme technique).Pour les projets multidisciplinaires, montrer l'articulation entre les disciplines scientifiques.

3.1.1 Analysis of surface and satellite observations.

In order to address the questions concerning the role of land-surface processes in the variability of the African monsoon system, and assess the representation of those variability and processes in numerical simulations, we will compare a hierarchy of climate simulations with observations, with a particular focus on the super-site observations of surface variables (and in particular surface fluxes).The super-site dataset comprises a network of surface flux stations and automatic weather stations covering the latitude 9.5°N to 17° N from 2005 to present, deployed within AMMA (Timouk et al. 2009, Ramier et al. 2009, Guyot et al. 2009). It has been designed to sample the main landscape types at each super-site (Mali, Niger, Benin). Surface turbulent fluxes are measured by an eddy covariance technique. They are complemented by high-frequency measurements of upwelling and downwelling longwave and shortwave fluxes, meteorological data, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, pressure, and also soil temperature, soil moisture and ground heat flux. Additional fields will be derived from these data: the equivalent potential temperature, linked to deep convection ; the lifting condensation level provides an estimate of convective cloud base height (Betts, 1997) ; the “diurnal temperature range”, which is a climate sensitive indicator ; the surface net radiation (Rnet), which provides a measure of surface-atmosphere energy exchanges ; the net longwave flux (LWnet), which quantifies thermal couplings between the surface and the atmosphere. These data will be referred to as 'surface variables'; they characterize the interface between the two components of the coupled land-atmosphere system. Longer term observations of rainfall, near surface humidity and temperature, as well as long series of satellite measurement of top-of-atmosphere radiation will also be used.

The analysis of the coupled land-atmosphere processes and evaluation of the models in terms of the representation of those processes will rely on statistical analysis of the surface variables (correlations between different variables, with time filtering, lag, etc). It will consider mainly shorter time scales (rainfall-event scale, intra-seasonal, to inter-annual), for which the observations at the super-sites are available. The issue of the link between the processes at decadal scales will be addressed in the model and by the use of longer time series of rainfall, near surface humidity and temperature as well as satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere fluxes.

Two types of climate simulations will be considered to address the question of the decadal variability.

3.1.2 Analysis of decadal variations of the monsoon system in the CMIP5 simulations.

CMIP5 is the inter-comparison program of global climate models which will serve as a main basis for the forthcoming IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). About 20 teams are expected to contribute to CMIP5. IPSL with its so-called “Earth System Model” (Braconnot et al., 2007), with its atmospheric component LMDZ (Hourdin et al., 2006) and Meteo-France (with Arpege Climat) are among them. For the present project we will analyze three types of CMIP simulations:

- The atmosphere only simulations in which observed sea-surface temperatures are imposed as boundary conditions. Reconstruction of the climate of the last decades with atmosphere-alone simulations is a requirement of the CMIP protocol.

- The control simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model are run over several centuries with constant greenhouse gases and other forcing (solar, volcanoes, aerosols, ...).

- The climate change simulations run with ocean-atmosphere model but with varying forcing. In particular, the climate change simulations will include reconstruction of the 20th century and future scenario. Over the 20th century, ensemble of simulations will be considered with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use forcings.

- Decadal predictions performed with the same models but with initialization of the oceanic circulation. Those simulations aim at combining the effect of greenhouse gases or aerosols forcing with a natural variability in phase with the observed one. They are currently at a feasibility stage.

We will analyze these simulations along three lines.1. Characterization of the decadal variations of the rainfall seasonality over West

Africa : Are the decadal variations of the annual cumulated rainfall (panel A, fig2) associated with shifts in time or changes of intra-seasonal variability? How do the changes in rainfall correlate with changes in temperature on the continent? What are the associated modifications in terms of top-of-the atmosphere fluxes observed by satellites on the last decades? What is the signature of decadal surface changes; e.g. surface albedo? The investigation of those aspects in the various configurations with a particular model will help 1) separate the part of the variability which can be understood as a response to decadal variations of the SSTs (from atmosphere-alone simulations) and 2) distinguish the internal decadal variability from the trends associated with climate change. The multi-model comparisons of the CMIP simulations will allow identify the robust elements, which may give rise to model based interpretation of the real variability, and the major model deficiencies. In particular, we will identify the relation between decadal variations of rainfall over Sahel and SSTs. It will provide a framework to evaluate the skill of CMIP5 decadal forecasts for our particular interest. Also the relative effect of the forcing from greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on the variations of SSTs will be investigated both on the basis of ensemble CMIP simulations as well as dedicated simulations

2. Analysis of the land-atmosphere coupling and feedbacks : The first way to analyze those feedbacks is to consider the correlations between surface variables following the

approach of Giannini (2009). This work shows that very different correlations are observed between for instance temperature and evapo-transpiration, or net or short-wave radiative fluxes, for internal variability and for climate change tendencies, and very different in the various models. In particular, Giannini (2009) shows that the signature is very different in the models which predict a drying and that which predict more rainfall over Sahel. The analysis was performed however on a four models ensemble only. The first objective will be to rerun similar diagnostics on the ensemble of the new CMIP simulations.

3. The last part of the analysis will target the link between the coupled processes at decadal time scales with that simulated at inter-annual, intra-seasonal and “event-size” time scales computing the same kind of cross-correlations between surface variables for the different modes of variability. This step is important to make the link between the coupled land-atmosphere simulated at decadal time scales and that observed at the AMMA super-sites.

3.1.3 Analysis of coupled land-atmosphere processes in intermediate complexity climate simulations with LMDZ and WRF

LMDZ is the atmospheric component of the IPSL Earth System Model while Orchidee is the scheme for continental surface. Here, the simulations will be performed with the LMDZ-Orchidee climate model forced by SSTs (atmosphere alone simulations). More specifically, we will perform simulations forced either by the mean seasonal cycle of SSTs for a wet decade (1956-1965) or that of a dry decade (1975-1984).

Fig 4 : Decadal variations of atmospheric rainfall over West Africa. Uper row : Difference in June-July-August-September (JJAS) rainfall (mm/day) between decade 1955-1965 (wet decade) and 1975-1985 (dry decade – difference between two 11-year averages) and differences in SSTs for the same decades. Lower row : simulated differences in rainfall

between a simulation forced by either the averaged seasonal cycle of SSTs for the decade 1956-1965 or by the SSTs of 1975-1984. The four panel show the difference of 15-year averages in rainfall between those two simulations and correspond, from left to right, to : the standard grid of the LMDZ model, with about 3° resolution on the horizontal, a finer global grid (2° resolution) and a zoomed version over West Africa. The two panels for this configuration show two periods of 15 years in a 200-year simulation and underline the importance of the natural interannual variability.

The contrasted sets of SSTs produces a modification of the simulated rainfall over Sahel (Fig. 4, lower row) quite similar to the observed difference between the 1956-1965 and 1975-1984 decades (upper left panel). The comparison of the last to panels of the figure illustrates the importance of the potential contribution of the “internal” (not forced by SSTs) interannual variability to the decadal signal. We plan to add a similar run forced with the mean 1998-2007 SST seasonal cycle to consider the recent partial rainfall recovery over the Sahel.

Another set of wet and dry experiments was done by replacing the interactive computation of surface humidity with the Orchidee land surface model, by a prescribed seasonal cycle of humidity. From the atmospheric point of view, the Orchidee hydrological scheme is computing the evapo-transpiration. In the standard version, the rainfall is either lost through run-off or stored in two reservoirs or layers. Schematically, the evapo-transpiration is then computed based on 10 possible Plant Functional Types per mesh of the climate model, as the product of a potential evaporation (which does not depend on the soil characteristics nor on the vegetation) by a factor which accounts for the availability of the humidity under the surface and on the type of plant. In the prescribed humidity simulations, we instead impose the coefficient as a function of latitude and season. The mean seasonal cycle of the monsoon is well simulated in the -imposed simulations but the amplitude of the response to SSTs is significantly reduced, suggesting an important role of land-atmosphere coupled processes in this variability.

For the project, we will first analyze the existing simulations. A similar approach will be followed as for the analysis of the CMIP simulations : characterization of the decadal variations ; analysis of the coupled land-atmosphere processes through the correlations between surface variables ; comparison of the simulations with interactive or prescribed surface humidity. We will also rerun experiments with different physical content of the atmospheric model and different surface models. In particular we will test the use of a more sophisticated land surface model based on a 11-layer discretization, compare simulations with a prescribed seasonal cycle or interactive computation of the Leaf area index. Each simulation will last 200 years and will be duplicate for the dry and wet years. The comparison of the characteristic of the decadal variability obtained in those various simulations will be used to assess and quantify the role of land-atmosphere coupled processes in this variability.

Specific simulations will also be developed to address the scale issue : are the surface-atmosphere feedbacks scale dependent? Is grid refinement a key for a realistic feedback in a climate model? To address this issue, we will use the WRF regional model with nested grids. WRF is a non-hydrostatic limited area model mostly developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (Skamarock et al. 2008). They will use prescribed sea surface temperatures and will be driven laterally by historical (20th Century Reanalyses: Compo et al. 2010) or current state-of-the-art (ERA-Interim Reanalyses: Simmons et al. 2007) reanalyses. Over Africa, land-atmosphere coupling will be resolved using alternatively three land surface models (2-layer Pleim-Xiu, 4-layer NOAH unified model, 6-layer Rapid Update Cycle). Following e.g. Vigaud et al. (2009) or Flaounas et al. (2010) the physical package includes Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme, Kain-Fritsch convection, RRTM/Dudhia long/shortwave radiation schemes. The explicit treatment of vertical velocity as well as more realistic surface conditions and coupling are expected to improve the simulation of meso-scale convective systems. The retained physical package is inherited from an extensive series of experiments performed over West Africa in the framework of ANR RESSAC project (Sijikumar et al. 2006, Vigaud et al. 2009).

For inter-comparison purposes, the regional domain will be chosen so that it corresponds to the zoomed grid of LMDZ (45W-45E, 10S-30N: see black box on Figure 4). Two-way nested embedded domains will be used to obtain high-resolution grids (roughly 10-12km) over the Sahelian belt and ensure a smooth transition with the lower-resolution forcing GCM.All simulations concern the boreal summer season (June through September, after a two-month spin-up period in april and may). They are divided into two sets. (i) Long-term simulations will be devoted to the evaluation of the model ability at reproducing decadal variability, and its consequences for intraseasonal variability, meso-scale convective systems and rainfall events. They will be forced laterally by the 20th Century Reanalyses v2 and use monthly Hadley SST (Rayner et al. 2003). (ii) Contemporary analyses will investigate the relevance of spatial scales and high-resolution grids for the land-atmosphere coupled processes. They will be driven by ERA-Interim reanalyses. In both simulations, case studies on a limited number of rainy seasons will include multi-member ensemble simulations using perturbed initial atmospheric conditions in order to quantify the West-African monsoon internal variability and assess the reproducibility of simulated high-frequency variability.

LMDZ simulations will be ran in parallel with a zoomed grid over the same area (see box on Fig. 4). For both LMDZ and WRF, simulations will be performed with various surface schemes and with an imposed coefficient.

3.1.4 Model evaluationAs for model evaluation, we will first apply the AMMA-MIP frame-work to the atmosphere-alone simulations and control simulations of the CMIP simulations. We will compare in that framework the atmosphere-alone and control ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations, which will help identify the part of the biases of the control simulations that come from biases in the sea-surface temperature. Same diagnostics will also be applied to the control simulations performed with regional models within the Cordex program.

Fig 6 : map of the 113 locations retained in the CFMIP/GCSS program for specific outputs at high frequency. The locations were selected because of the existence of dedicated campaign, instrumented sites or so. The 9 locations over west-Africa were chosen to fulfill requirements by the AMMA-MIP program.

The second aspect will be to develop and apply specific land-atmosphere process oriented diagnostics, from statistics on the surface variables along the lines presented above. For this particular part, we will use the specific outputs which will be made available at high frequency in a subset of the CMIP simulations (including documentation of the diurnal cycle)

on a series of points along the transect. Motivated by discussions between the Cloud Feedback Model Inter-comparison Program (CFMIP) and GEWEX Cloud System Study group (GCSS), a series of 113 locations were defined over the globe, corresponding to instrumented sites, or field campaign. The 9 locations over West-Africa were chosen following discussions between the CFMIP program and AMMA-MIP.

3.1.5 Model improvements

The LMD will use in the CMIP5 exercise a new set of parameterizations for the representation of boundary layer, moist convection and cloud processes. This new set of parametrizations has been shown to yield, in the 1D simulation of a continental GCSS case, a shift in the diurnal cycle of convection towards later times. These results are in better agreement with observations than those obtained for the CMIP3 exercise, in which the LMDZ model displayed, like most climate models, a maximum of continental deep convection at noon.This improvement was obtained thanks to the implementation of a new boundary layer scheme, of a density current scheme and of a new way of coupling sub-cloud processes with the deep convection scheme. Since this new set of parameterizations changes the diurnal cycle of moist processes, we expect important changes in surface fluxes (radiation fluxes, sensible and latent fluxes, precipitation). A first objective is to assess the impact of this new set of parameterizations on surface variables at "event size", intra-seasonal and inter-annual scales. Comparison with observations at the super-sites will be used to tune the model. The second objective is to consider the question of the completeness of the present set of interface variables. This set includes only grid cell averaged variables. The question of the relevance of supplementary variables representing the heterogeneity of surface conditions will be addressed. To that end a stochastic model of sub-grid soil moisture will be designed and coupled to deep convection: the convective rain will act as a source of heterogeneity; while the surface heterogeneities will induce local breezes which provide additional lifting promoting deep convection. An important issue will also be the implementation of a realistic representation of Saharian/Sahelian dust in the model, a key issue for the comparison with surface flux observations.

3.1.6 Definition of the tasks.

Organization in tasks The organization in tasks follows different types of works. Task 2 concerns the analysis and realization of long terms simulations, Task 3 the work on surface variables on shorter time scales. Task 4 to the evaluation of the climate models in the AMMA-MIP framework and Task 5 the work done on the content of the numerical models. More precisely :

Task 1 corresponds to the coordination of the project.

Task 2 is dedicated to the analysis and understanding of the decadal modulation of the seasonality of rainfall in West Africa and identification of 1) the role of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols and natural variability in the control of the decadal variations of SSTs and 2) the role of coupled land-surface feedbacks at those time scales. It will rely mainly on the analysis of numerical simulations (CMIP and Cordex simulations as well as specific simulations run with intermediate complexity climate models) and analysis of observations on the last decades.

Task 3 is dedicated to the analysis of the coupled land-surface processes based on the surface variables. It will rely on statistical analysis of the surface variables in numerical

simulations and observations. It will consider mainly shorter time scales (rainfall-event scale, intra-seasonal, to inter-annual), for which the observations at the supersites are available. The issue of the link between the processes at decadal scales will be addressed in the model and by the use of longer time series of rainfall, near surface humidity and temperature as well as satellite retrieval of top-of-atmosphere fluxes, cloud cover and surface albedo.

Task 4 concerns climate model evaluation. Evaluation will be performed by applying the existing AMMA-MIP diagnostics to the CMIP5 and Cordex simulations. New focused diagnostics based on the results of Task 2 (concerning the characterization of the seasonal cycle) and Task 3 (concerning the evaluation in terms of interface variables and land-atmosphere coupled processes) will also been proposed and applied.

Task 5 : Improvement of the representation of interface variables and land-atmosphere coupled processes in the numerical models. In particular impact of the improvement of the representation of the diurnal cycle of convection over land on the representation of radiative, sensible and latent surface heat fluxes ; improvement of the representation of Saharan dust and impact on radiative fluxes ; importance of the grid resolution for the representation of land-atmosphere coupled processes ; exploration of the coupled processes with idealized 1D (single-column) or 2D (latitude-altitude) climate models.

3.2. DESCRIPTION DES TRAVAUX PAR TÂCHE / DESCRIPTION BY TASK

Pour la tâche de coordination (tâche 1), préciser les aspects organisationnels de la proposition de projet et les modalités de coordination.Pour les tâches suivantes, décrire : - les objectifs et éventuels indicateurs de succès.- le responsable et les partenaires impliqués.- le programme détaillé des travaux.- les livrables.- les contributions des partenaires (le « qui fait quoi »).- la description des méthodes et des choix techniques et de la manière dont

les solutions seront apportées.- les risques et les solutions de repli envisagées.

3.2.1 TÂCHE 1 / TASK 1

If the scientific tasks are defined according to the types of activities, the main scientific objectives are transverse to the tasks and it is very important to maintain a scientific animation during the project if we want to really benefit from the rich spectrum of expertise we have tried to gather in the project : expertise in land-atmosphere processes and surface observations, expertise in climate variability and statistics and expertise in climate modeling. This will be the responsibility of the project coordinator who will not coordinate one particular task.

A coordination committee is also identified : it includes the coordinator (Frédéric Hourdin), the coordinators of the four tasks (Serge Janicot, Françoise Guichard, Ionela Musat and Jean-Yves Grandpeix), Laurent Kergoat who will represent the surface process community

and the link with super-sites and Benjamin Pohl who will represent the CRC team and the aspect of statistical analysis of the climate variability.

A scientific meeting of the whole project will be organized each six months and a status report will be established mentioning the main results and status of the project as well as the difficulty encountered in the work progress.

A mailing list with all the participants is already established.

An interactive web page (wiki page for instance) will also be open on for the project on the AMMA-MIP web site.

3.2.2 TASK 2

Task leader: Serge JanicotTeam involved: LMD, CRC, CNRM

The general objective in this task is to better characterize the fingerprint of the decadal variability of the African monsoon in the CMIP models and the relative role played by the land-surface interactions. This task will be closely connected with the tasks 4 on the evaluation of these models and the task 3 in order to benefit from the build-up of new diagnostics relevant to the land-atmosphere processes evaluation.

T2a : Characterization of the decadal variations of the West African climate (CNRM, LMD, CRC)

Characterization of the decadal modifications of the seasonal cycle of temperature, 2-meter atmospheric humidity and rainfall over Sahel from CRU observations. Documentation of the decadal variations of TOA radiation from Meteosat. Similar analyses using the atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP, ERA, 20th Century) to evaluate the associated West African monsoon circulation variability. Evaluate the decadal variations of the main intra-seasonal modes. Link with observed decadal variations of the seasonal cycle of Sahelian rainfall in atmosphere-alone CMIP simulations.

T0 is considered to be October 2011.

D2a, T0 + 8: Publication on the evaluation of the CMIP atmosphere-alone simulations in view of a contribution to the IPCC report.

T2b: Analyses of the CMIP5 simulations (CRC, LMD)Comparison of the decadal variability in the atmosphere-alone, control and climate change simulations along the methodology presented in 3.1.2. In particular, compare the decadal variations in the CMIP control run with that in the CMIP climate change simulations to separate the contribution from global warming including or not the anthropogenic aerosols forcing. Try to relate the (probably) contrasted (see Giannini 2009) behavior of the models to the characteristics of the representation of convection and rainfall variability and/or surface processes in the models.The first step will be to separate the long term trend (global warming) from the decadal variability (using Mohino et al. (2009) procedure) in the available climate change simulations beginning in 1860; then to evaluate in these multi-models simulations the individual role of greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosols, and natural (solar and volcano) forcing, and the combination of all forcings, in order to identify the origin of SST decadal evolution, especially in the Atlantic. Additional similar simulations will be performed for the most instrumental

forcings on shorter periods (50 years) with the IPSL model to get small ensembles of simulations and increase the statistical significance of the detection/attribution of SST variations. The second step will be to evaluate the rainfall response of the African monsoon to these SST variations in regards to internal variability of this monsoon system. This probably needs larger ensembles to assess its statistical significance, which can be realized by performing one long-term simulation (several hundreds of years) with a constant forcing. The third step will be to evaluate for each forcing its indirect effect (through SST) and its direct effect on African rainfall. In the context of increased CO2 concentration for example, the LMDZ model will be forced over several hundreds of years with the SST field of the IPSL simulation obtained with a higher CO2 concentration, combined with and without this higher CO2 concentration. Finally when the task T5b on improvement of the representation of mineral aerosols will have been realized, this whole procedure will be applied again to evaluate the role of Sahel and Sahara dust on both SST and African monsoon rainfall variability. On the other hand the small ensembles of multi-models decadal predictions provided by CMIP5 will also be considered to evaluate in particular the predictability of the AMO signal and its impact on sub-Saharan rainfall. Larger ensembles will also be performed with the IPSL model to increase the statistical significance of the rainfall response over Africa. This issue will be supported by the French EPIDOM project but the analysis of the African monsoon predictability will be included in DECAF and not in EPIDOM.M2b.1, T0+2: extraction of an appropriate subset of the CMIP simulations and publication for the other teams on a server at IPSL (step 1).D2b.1, T0+8: publication for the IPCC report (step 1).M2b.2, T0+8: new series of CMIP simulations available on the server at IPSL (steps 2 and 3).D2b.2, T0+20: publications on the analysis of the new CMIP simulations series (steps 2 and 3).D2b.3, T0+8: publication for the IPCC report on the available decadal forecast simulations provided by EPIDOM.D2b.4, T0+30: publication on the analysis of the dust simulations provided by T5b.

T2c: Secular simulations with intermediate complexity configurations of LMDZ (LMD)The analyses will first be made on the first set of simulations described in 3.1.2. Another series of simulations will be made. Each simulation will last at least 200 years and will be run with both for the sea-surface-temperature mean seasonal cycle of both the wet and dry decades (we plan also to carry out a supplementary run for the decade 1998-2007). The comparison of the two simulations gives access to the response to SSTs while the analysis of each simulation gives access to the internal decadal variability. For a given set of SST, we will try to understand the origin of the decadal variability. In particular, does this internal atmospheric variability belong more to a large scale dynamics or is it mainly controlled by local land-atmosphere processes? What is the contribution of the coupled land-atmosphere processes or internal atmospheric variability?

The first series of simulations was done with a version of 2006 of the LMDZ-Orchidee model with a rather coarse grid of 64 points in longitude, 48 in latitude and 19 vertical layers, and a zoom over West-Africa. The simulations will first be redone with the 144x142x39 resolution of the model with regular grid. The configurations will include :

• Control simulation with LMDZ5-Orchidee in its IPCC version (interactive LAI).

• Same simulation with the “new physics version” LMDZ5P.

• Simulation with imposed seasonal cycle of LAI

• Simulation with prescribed coefficient.

• Simulation with the 11-layer version of the Orchidee land surface scheme.

• Simulation including the anthropogenic land-use forcing over sub-Saharan Africa. Simulation with interactive vegetation

D2c.1, T0+8: Publication on the analysis of the existing simulations.

M2c, T0+12: the whole set of new simulations available on the web site for analysis.

D2c.2, T0+34: Publications on the analysis of the new series of simulations.

T2d: Decadal variability of rainfall events in the different simulations (LMD / CRC)This is a transverse subtask to T2b and T2c in order to focus on a rainfall event based analysis of the various simulations: Develop a composite analysis based on the rainfall events distribution in the various model configurations in order to assess at this scale the relative contributions in the water budget and in the event intensity of the local land surface processes and of the regional scale monsoon circulation interactions linked to regional scale low-level horizontal moist static energy gradients. It will enable to provide an evaluation and compare the various models and simulations in a rainfall event based reference.A long-term regional simulation using WRF, forced by the 20th Century Reanalyses and the HadISST, will be performed on the period (up to 1871-present). The interest of this dataset is that it only assimilates surface data (surface pressure and mean sea level pressure) throughout the whole period, hereby correcting parts of the artifacts and abrupt shifts associated with the assimilation of satellite-derived data in the first generations of reanalyses (e.g. NCEP-NCAR and ERA40: Poccard et al. 2000). Due to the temporal inconstancy and the anisotropy in the amounts of assimilated surface data, we will treat separately the periods that present comparable and constant assimilated data (e.g., 1871-1905, 1907-1930, 1957-1966, 1967-today).Over given decades, multi-member ensemble experiments using perturbed initial atmospheric conditions will be devoted to the analysis of the monsoon internal variability. Emphasis will be given on the long-term evolution of rainfall seasonality and intraseasonal variability (3-5, 10-25 and 25-60 day-ranges).M2d, T0+12: WRF simulations available.D2d, T0+30: analysis of WRF simulations.

3.2.3 TASK 3

Task leader: Françoise GuichardTeams involved: CNRM, LMD, CRC

Objectives: This task aims (1) to identify and characterize from observations of surface variables the actual couplings linking surface and atmospheric processes and (2) to assess the simulation of these couplings in models. Distinct mechanisms of couplings can arise at different scales. Therefore, the analysis will cover space and time scales ranging from local, mesoscale to decadal and regional scales with complementary datasets and models.

Materials and methodsObservations: They are composed of distinct datasets spanning two distinct time ranges: (i) a few years, mostly centred on the more recent AMMA years, and (ii) ten to a few tens of years. This concerns both in-situ data and satellite products. Within (i), the goal is to conduct comprehensive process-oriented analyses relying on detailed datasets, notably surface

energy budgets and their couplings with surface meteorology while (ii) aims at characterizing decadal trends with available observations and analysing their modelling. For the more recent years, in addition to the surface observations at the Benin, Niger and Mali super-sites (Service d'Observation S.O. AMMA-Catch, www.lthe.hmg.inpg.fr/catch/) which will concentrate the maximum attention, data from surface stations network will be exploited. In-situ data are for most of them complemented by co-located AERONET sun photometers and GPS precipitable water data, plus, for Niamey in 2006 the ARM mobile facility (Miller and Slingo 2007). For the longer time scales, observations from more than 140 SYNOP stations (1950 or prior – 1980 and 1997-present) distributed across West Africa will be used (available from the AMMA database). Most of them provide daily values of temperature, humidity, wind and rainfall, and diurnal temperature range. They will be complemented by SYNOP data available at the ECMWF and NCDC (some comparisons with the results from the CRU datasets are also planed).At larger spatial scale, satellite products will be mostly used to document surface properties, clouds and TOA radiative fluxes. MODIS albedo and Leaf Area Index products will be used to assess recent years since they have been previously validated with in situ data over the Sahel (Samain et al. 2008, Mougin et al. unpublished). Longer time series of albedo will be analyzed with EUMETSAT data (1981-2006) together with 'greening' data from the AVHRR (1984-present). Similarly, for recent years, clouds will be documented via complementary data sets: CLOUDSAT, CALIPSO (AQUA-Train, Chepfer et al., 2010) and SEVIRI (2006-present) which provide informations on cloud vertical structure and cloud cover. For the longer term, cloud cover estimates from ISCCP (1983-2008) and also as derived from METEOSAT-7 (1983-2005) (Sèze and Pawlowska 2001) will be used. (The latter product is expected to be less affected by trends or rupture in the calibration, and to provide more information at smaller scales.)

Models: we will focus on the subset of simulations summarized below :* Control simulations of the CMIP models with forced SSTs,* WRF and LMDZ Cordex simulation,* Zoomed/nudged simulations of LMDZ and ARPEGE-Climat for the recent years.Simulations with various configurations of either soil moisture (e.g.; interactive versus prescribed), vegetation (climatological seasonal cycle versus observationally-based), model physics and/or resolution are planed for all three models and will be used.

T3a: Data processing and upscaling (CNRM)For eddy covariance stations, surface energy budget closure will be documented for the different sites. The mesoscale variability among different sites will be documented,and mesoscale average and subgrid variability will be estimated, following Timouk et al. (2009).M3a.1, T0+6: assessment and documentation of surface energy budget closure.M3a.2, T0+6: estimate of aggregated surface variables (to allow direct comparison with climate models), in the form of new data-files.

T3b: Seasonal cycle and short-term interannual variability at the super-sites (CNRM/LMD/CRC)

First, different phases will be defined within the seasonal cycle on the basis of observed meteorological variables and fluxes since previous studies suggest that couplings are phase-dependent. These “surface variables” will be related locally to water vapor, dust (with GPS

and AERONET data) and clouds, as well as vegetation, soil type, and soil variables (temperature and moisture). Their links with top of atmosphere satellite observations will also be explored. This multi-sites observational study will be further used to assess the mean seasonal cycle of climate simulations and its latitudinal variations.Then, on the basis of the few - but contrasted - years sampled at the super-sites, the inter-annual variability of meteorological fields and surface fluxes will be quantified. Differences and similarities between the couplings emerging at this scale and at smaller seasonal and intra-seasonal scales will be analyzed.(for instance between Lwnet, surface albedo and rainfall). The ability of models to reproduce the observed coupled variations will be tested, under different configurations. This will allow to precise the impact of a more realistic depiction of the inter-annual variability of vegetation, and how this impact relates to observations.

D3b.1, T0+12: Publication: seasonal cycle of the meridional gradient in surface variablesD3b.2, T0+18: Publication: interannual variability: sensitivity to the representation of surface processes in models M3b.1 T0+12: cloud statistics from CLOUSAT and CALIPSO along the meridional transectM3b.2 T0+12: processing and evaluation of MODIS datasets, albedo and LAI

T3c: Identification of robust features and links between the “surface variables” (CNRM/LMD)

Here, “surface variables” will be used to guide the evaluation of models on specific, robust features. Some of these features have been already identified, for instance the remarkably weak magnitude of fluctuations in precipitable water (Bock et al. 2008) and LW downwelling flux (LWin) during monsoon, which are accompanied by a positive (negative) meridional gradient of LWin (of precipitable water). These robust properties of the monsoon will be used for model evaluation, and conversely, the models which are able to reproduce these climatic features will be used for further understanding.

Then,correlations between variables will be analysed statistically, with considerations of time scales and lags. These diagnostics (Betts 2004, Guichard et al. 2009) will document the different climates of the super-sites, and will allow to assess their simulation by climate models. Data suggest the emergence of strong links between LWnet and relative humidity down to small scales, and across the wide seasonal range of fluctuations of these variables over West Africa. On the other hand, relationships between surface temperature and specific humidity, or equivalent potential temperature and net radiation appear more complex. These couplings will be documented more extensively and more systematically, in both observations and models, and their sensitivity and correlations to larger scale modes of tropical variability will be tested. It is expected that models with correct surface-atmosphere interactions should reproduce these couplings. These diagnostics will be further applied in to the intermediate-complexity simulations presented in T2c in order to precise the degree to which correlations between surface variables discussed above depend on hypotheses in the model. This includes the atmospheric physics (e.g. clouds and convection), the nature of the surface coupling (weak, standard, sophisticated, e.g. with the 2 and 11 layers versions of the surface scheme, or with a prescribed or interactive LAI).

M3c.1, T0+6: definition of diagnostics characterizing robust features for model evaluationD3c.1, T0+12: publication: Factors driving sensitivities of the meridional gradient in surface longwave fluxes

D3c.1, T0+18: Publication: statistical analysis of couplings between surface variables in observations and models

T3d : Variations of surface variables at decadal scales (CNRM/LMD) This task will first focus on meteorological fields, notably SYNOP data. However, it is expected that the links previously identified between radiative and meteorological fields will greatly help in the interpretation of decadal fluctuations in these variables (for instance between surface LWnet, relative humidity and “diurnal temperature range” or between LWup and rainfall). A specific focus will be given to Spring (prior to the monsoon onset, the period of time during which there is a strong heating in the Sahel) and to monsoon months which correspond respectively to often moist (but non rainy) and wet rainy periods in the Sahel. Possible fluctuations in the start, duration and strength of the Spring warming period will be examined and relationships between surface temperature and humidity will be analyzed separately for the two periods. Changes in the meridional gradients of surface variables will be further estimated for the overlap period between surface and satellite product, and compared to their counterpart in models.M3d.1 T0+18: dataset of long time series of cloud cover and types from METEOSATM3d.2 T0+18: dataset of long time series of albedo

D3g.1, T0+24: Publication: decadal variability of the seasonal cycle of temperature and rainfall

3.2.4 TASK 4

Task leader: Ionela MusatTeam involved: LMD, CRC, CNRM

Task 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the climate model which will be involved in the next IPCC-AR5 report, through the CMIP5 and Cordex exercises as well as the specific configurations of LMDZ and WRF used for this project.2 types of simulations will be evaluated:1. The control simulations performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere models. It is

presumable that, as for the previous CMIP3 exercise, the biases in the cumulated rainfall over Sahel will be quite large due to large scale biases in the sea-surface temperature.

2. The control simulations performed with atmosphere-alone models forced by SSTs of the recent decades. This includeatmosphere alone CMIP and Cordex simulations as well as specific simulations performed for the project.

Validation tool and observations:- The AMMA-MIP framework will be used. It is based on the evaluation on a few

selected years (2000, 2003, 2005, and 2006) and focused on the documentation of

the meridional/seasonal distribution of rainfall, meteorological variables, large scale dynamics, and fluxes.

- The models outputs will consists both in cross-section (latitude-altitude averaged on 10W-10E) and 2D horizontal maps on a daily baisis and the specific high frequency outputs made along the transect in the frame of the CFMIP project.

- The use of super-site observations of the “interface variables” will be used.- The recent satellite observations (in particular those of the aqua-train) will be

preprocessed for validation.The work will be divided into 5 sub-tasks:

T4a : Evaluation of the mean seasonal cycle in the AMMA-MIP framework (LMD/CNRM) Evaluation of the mean seasonal cycle in the CMIP control and atmosphere alone simulations, as well as in the Cordex experiments, of rainfall, temperature and large scale dynamics in the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation. Because the coupled simulations are not representative of a particular year, a mean-climatology will be build from the observations as an extension of the present AMMA-MIP framework. For the Cordex simulations, the control simulation are forced at lateral boundaries and by SSTs with observations (or analyses). So a year-by-year comparison will be possible. Note however that the internal variability of one model is expected to be generally much smaller than the difference between observations and models (Hourdin et al., 2010). The season will also be characterized in terms of the intensity and spectrum of the interannual variability. Because of the IPCC schedule, first comparisons will be done with the already process observation dataset. In parallel, advanced documentation of clouds and meridional/seasonal variations will be carried out on the basis of recent satellite observations. In particular a better documentation of top-of-the atmosphere radiative fluxes based on Ceres and meridional-vertical cross section of the cloud distribution based on the Caliop Lidar. Definition of new diagnostics based on water vapor recent reanalysis of the AMMA- campaign, using in particular GPS and AMMA radio-sound data. Building of new diagnostics on moisture convergence from those analysis.M4a.1, T0+3: develop a filter on the CMIP outputs to extract files for AMMA-MIP. Application of this filter to the CMIP and Cordex simulations.D4a.1, T0+8: Publications on the evaluation of the CMIP and Cordex control simulations for the IPCC report.M4a.2, T0+18: new observations availableD4a.2, T0+24: A new version of the AMMA-MIP web site and database including the evaluation of the CMIP atmosphere-alone and control simulations as well as Cordex WRF and LMDZ simulations.D4a.3, T0+36: Final version of the AMMA-MIP database accounting for all the new diagnostics, inclunding those of T4b and T4c

T4b : Evaluation in terms of surface variables (CNRM) Definition of process oriented diagnostics taking into account the results of task 3, based on the used of surface variables. Define key diagnostics for the relative variations of the various variables for the wet Benin site and semi-arid Niger and Mali sites. Apply those new diagnostics to the CMIP atmosphere-alone and Cordex experiments.M4b, T0+16: First version of those diagnostics.

T4c : New diagnostics of the rainfall distribution (LMD)

Develop new diagnostics to characterize the models in terms of the representation of the distribution of rainfall events, both at short term (link with convective “events”) and at intra-seasonal time scales (break, active phases). These diagnostics will be used in particular to assess the possible added value of down-scaling, as done within the Cordex project. This evaluation in terms of rainfall variability is important for the impact studies and will help interpret the impact-oriented evaluation performed within the Escape project. It will be an important step to award potential users from the “impact community” on the skill or deficiencies of the CMIP and Cordex simulations.M4c, T0+18: New diagnostics concerning rainfall distribution.D4c, T0+18: Publication on CMIP and Cordex simulations as concerns rainfall distribution for the IPCC-AR5 WG2.

3.2.5 TASK 5

Task leader: Jean-Yves GrandpeixTeams involved: LMD, CNRM, CRC

Objectives: (i) Assess the role of the various components of the LMDZ4 model which are supposed to play a key role in the simulation of the West Africa climate at scales ranging from 100km to a few 100 km and from a day to a year: PBL/Convection/Clouds parametrization package, aerosol parametrization, land-surface model; (ii) Improve these components when possible and necessary; (iii) document scale effects for the land surface – atmosphere coupling.

Key questions: (i) What is the impact of the new physics package of LMDZ (PBL scheme, deep convection scheme, density current scheme)on the simulation of the WA climate? Especially, what are the consequences of the change of the diurnal cycle of moist convection?(ii) What are the important features of the land surface model?(iii) What are the relevant interface variables in order to couple properly the atmosphere and land surface processes? Especially, is the sub-grid heterogeneity of surface moisture a relevant interface variable?

Method:The first two sub-tasks address the first key question. The first subtask aims at assessing the impact of the new physics package of LMDZ by comparing simulations using the old package (i.e. CMip3 type simulation) and the new package (i.e. CMip5 type simulations) with observations at the various super-sites. When comparing simulation results with observations, the radiative effect of desert dust is expected to play an important role. The second sub-task will be devoted to the evaluation and to the improvement of the parameterizations relevant for the representation of these effects. The last sub-task aims at improving the representation of the interactions between land and atmosphere and addresses the last two key questions. The idea is to compare simulations results of the Single Column Model (SCM) version of LMDZ and of a CRM in idealized cases. The cases are cases of radiative/convective equilibrium, with some forcing representing the effect of the monsoon circulation. The 2D latitude-altitude version of Meso-NH, developed to study the West African Monsoon (Peyrillé 2007), will be used to define these cases: it will provide forcings (convergence of heat and moisture) representing the effect of the monsoon circulation. The SCM will then be used to simulate the corresponding states of

radiative/convective/monsoon forcing equilibrium. Simulation results will be compared with the 2D MesoNH results and, hopefully, with some CRM results.

T5a: Test of the LMDZ new physics against surface variables (LMD). (comparison with observations made at the super-sites: see task 3) Use of the new physics of LMDZ and of the expected better representation of the life cycle (in particular diurnal cycle) of convective events (even if the parameterized convection is still far from real MCS) to assess the impact on the representation of radiative fluxes (change of the phasing between clouds and insolation) and latent/sensible fluxes (changes in the phasing of rainfall with warmest temperature).Test of the new boundary layer scheme and its impact on the representation of boundary layer shallow cumulus and their impact on surface fluxes.M5a, T0+6: Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and clouds simulated with the new physics of LMDZ.D5a, T0+18: Publication on the change of the diurnal cycle and its impact on surface fluxes.

T5b: Improvement of the representation of mineral aerosols (LMD). Test and improvement of the representation of interactive dust in LMDZ and link with surface fluxes. Comparison with results from the FENNEC ANR funded project. Use in particular of the recently developed LMDZ-Inca version with aerosols. This version however underestimates the concentrations in dust aerosols over that region. Test the use of a different way of computing the dust emission following what is done in the Chimere model.

M5b1, T0+12: Dust simulations with LMDZ-IncaM5b2, T0+24: Test of various ways of representing dust emissions.D5b, T0+36: Publication: Representation of interactive dust in LMDZ.

T5c: 2D and 1D simulations (CNRM, LMD) (The 1D part is mostly a part of Nicolas Rochetin thesis)(i) Use of the 2D latitude-altitude version of Meso-NH to define forcings (convergence of heat and moisture) corresponding to various latitudes, either with or without diurnal cycle.(ii) Assessment of the PBL/Convection/clouds sensitivity to surface and atmospheric large scale conditions. Use of radiative/convective/monsoon forcing equilibrium simulations in order to compare LMDZ4 SCM results with 2D-MesoNH and with a CRM. In the cases free of large scale forcings, comparison will be made with results obtained with the ARPS CRM (continuation of a work performed during the AMMA European program: WP1.3.3, Collaboration with Paolina Cerlini, University of Perugia). In the monsoon forcing case, the possibility of comparison with a CRM is not certain.(iii) Parametrization of the effect of sub-grid surface moisture heterogeneity on the triggering of deep convection. The role of this parametrization will be assessed by comparing LMDZ4 SCM results with CRM results in radiative-convective equilibrium simulations.(iv) Representation and analysis of the feedback loop [soil moisture heterogeneity] -> [deep convection] -> [deep convective rain] -> [soil moisture heterogeneity]. In order to represent this process, a stochastic model of sub-grid soil moisture will be designed, with the convective rain as a source term. The PDF of soil moisture and rain rate will be assessed from CRM simulations available from AMMA case studies .M5c1, T0+6: Definition of cases of radiative-convective-monsoon forcing equilibrium over land.M5c2, T0+18: Parameterization of the trigger of deep convection by sub-grid soil moisture heterogeneity.M5c3, T0+18: Parametrization of sub-grid soil moisture heterogeneity induced by deep convection.D5c1, T0+18: Publication: Sensitivity of boundary layer, convection, clouds to surface conditions in radiative/convective equilibrium simulations.

D5c2, T0+30: Publication: Feedback analysis of the interaction between soil moisture and deep convection.

T5d: High-resolution regional simulations (CRC)High-resolution simulations will be performed using a non-hydrostatic WRF configuration with embedded domains. The larger domain will be the same as the decadal and LMDZ simulations (i.e. 45W-45E, 10S-30N, see Fig. 4). The model will be forced laterally by the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalyses on the period 1989-today. Ensemble experiments will be conducted for given rainy seasons in order to assess the reproducible part of the monsoon variability, with a focus on land – atmosphere coupled processes.To further explore this issue, sensitivity experiments will be designed, using three different land surface models (two-layer Pleim-Xiu, four-layer NOAH, six-layer Rapid Update Cycle). Additional experiments using a five-layer thermal diffusion scheme (predicting only soil temperature) and a simplified scheme without temperature prediction will also be run in order to document the effects of damped atmosphere-surface interactions. The sensitivity to the grid resolution will also be considered by running similar experiments, except for the number of embedded domains (i.e., intermediate resolution of the larger domain everywhere vs. the 10-12km resolution obtained over the Sahelian belt using two-way nested embedded domain).In each of these experiments, consequences for simulated convective variability at different timescales (including meso-scale convective systems, African Easterly Waves, intraseasonal modes of variability and the rainfall seasonality) will be documented. The results will also be compared with the zoomed LMDZ simulations, run at a lower resolution over West Africa.

M5d, T0+6: WRF simulations available.D5d, T0+24: analysis of WRF simulations.

3.3. CALENDRIER DES TÂCHES, LIVRABLES ET JALONS / TASKS SCHEDULE, DELIVERABLES AND MILESTONES

Présenter sous forme graphique un échéancier des différentes tâches et leurs dépendances (diagramme de Gantt par exemple).Présenter un tableau synthétique de l'ensemble des livrables de la proposition de projet (numéro de tâche, date, intitulé, responsable).Préciser de façon synthétique les jalons scientifiques et/ou techniques, les principaux points de rendez-vous, les points bloquants ou aléas qui risquent de remettre en cause l'aboutissement du projet ainsi que les réunions prévues.

CMIP schedule:The CMIP schedule will be an important aspect of the project. The modeling will start provide the outputs of their simulations in spring 2011. The teams who want to contribute to the IPCC AR5 WG1 report based on those simulations will have to submit their papers before July 2012. Assuming a starting date for the project T0 in October 2011, it translates into T0+8. It will thus be a priority to write the publications on the CMIP simulation, both in terms of analysis of the decadal variability and climate change trends and in terms of evaluation within the AMMA-MIP frame work, including the new diagnostics based on surface variables. The first year of the project will thus put a larger weight on those aspects. The WG2, dedicated to impact studies, is usually shifted by 6 months with respect to WG1 which gives a dead line at T0+20 for a second series of publications.

Schedule driven by the IPCC report:

T0: The first milestones consists in having a subset simulations of the CMIP simulations available on a server at IPSL (M2b).T0+3: filter from IPCC outputs to AMMA-MIP inputs (M4a.1)T0+8: Milestones on new diagnostics for the AMMA-MIP evaluation (M4a, b and c).T0+18: new version of the AMMA-MIP database available.T0+20: Publications on the decadal variability in the CMIP simulations (D2a and b) and on the model evaluation (D4c).

Analysis of intermediate-complexity simulations and land-atmosphere couplings:The schedule is not so constraint for the intermediate complexity simulations with LMDZ-Orchidee.The analysis of the existing simulations will be started from the beginning of the project.The new simulations will have to be made available at T0+12.The analysis will be performed for the end of the project.The link between the land-atmosphere processes at decadal and shorter time scale is a rather ambitious question which will probably imply some work until the end of the project.

Risks::There are no real risks in the project in terms of availability of numerical simulations. The CMIP simulations will be available very early in the project. In fact, the IPSL contribution will be accessible to the project before this (summer 2010).Also, the existing simulations with wet and dry SSTs are already very intersting to anlyze.

The coordination will be particularly careful to the schedule of the first half of the project, because the IPCC schedule is a real constraint, and it would really be a big failure of the project not to be able to contribute to the IPCC report.

D2a T0+8 Publication on the caracterisation of seasonal cycle Bernard Fontaine

M2b.1 T0+2 Make the CMIP simulations available on a server at IPSL (step 1)

Ionela Musat

D2b.1 T0+8 Publications on decadal variations in CMIP simulations (step 1)

M2b.2 T0+8 Make the CMIP new simulations available on a server at IPSL (steps 2 and 3)

Ionela Musat

D2b.2 T0+20 Publications on decadal variations in new CMIP simulations (steps 2 and 3)

D2b.3 T0+8 Publications on decadal variations in decadal forecast simulations provided by EPIDOM

D2b.4 T0+30 Publications on decadal variations in new dust simulations provided by T5b

D2c.1 T0+8 Publications on existing intermediate complexity simulations

Abdoul Khadre Traore

M2c T0+12 New intermediate complexity simulations available Abdoul Khadre Traore

D2c.2 T0+34 Publications on the coupled land-atmosphere processes in the decadal internal variations

Abdoul Khadre Traore

M2d T0+12 WRF simulations available Benjamin Pohl

D2d T0+30 Analysis of WRF simulations Benjamin Pohl

M3a.1 T0+6 assessment and documentation of surface energy budget closure.

Laurent Kergoat

M3a.2 T0+6 Estimate of aggregated surface variables, in the form of new data-files.

Laurent Kergoat

D3b.1 T0+12 Publication: seasonal cycle of the meridional gradient in surface variables

Post-Doc

D3c.1 T0+12 publication: Factors driving the meridional gradient in surface longwave fluxes

Françoise Guichard

D3d.1 T0+18 Publication: statistical analysis of couplings between surface variables in observations and models

D3e.1 T0+30

M3f.1 T0+12 cloud statistics from CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO along the meridional transect

Dominique Bouniol

M3f.2 T0+12 processing and evaluation of MODIS datasets, albedo and LAI

Manuela Grippa

D3f.1 T0+18 Publication: interannual variability: sensitivity to the representation of surface processes in models

Post-Doc

M3f.1 T0+18 dataset of long time series of cloud cover and types from METEOSAT-7

Geneviève Sèze

M3f.2 T0+18 dataset of long time series of albedo Manuela Grippa

D3g.1 T0+24 Publication: decadal variability of the seasonal cycle of temperature and rainfall

Françoise Guichard

M4a.1 T0+3 Filter CMIP and Cordex → AMMA-MIP Ionela Musat

D4a.1 T0+8 Publication on model evaluation for IPCC Frédéric Hourdin

M4a.2 T0+18 New diagnostics on clouds and water vapor Geneviève Sèze

D4a.2 T0+24 New AMMA-MIP database and website Ionela Musat

D4a.3 T0+36 Final version of the AMMA-MIP database and website

Ionela Musat

M4b T0+16 New diagnostics from surface variables Laurent Kergoat

M4c T0+18 New diagnostics on rainfall distributions Laurent Li

D4c T0+18 Publication on CMIP and Cordex simulations as concerns rainfall variability for the IPCCAR5 Part II

Laurent Li

M5a T0+6 Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and clouds simulated with the new physics of LMDZ.

Jean-Yves Grandpeix

D5a T0+18 Publication on the change of the diurnal cycle and its impact on surface fluxes.

Jean-Yves Grandpeix

M5b.1 T0+12 Dust simulations with LMDZ-Inca Moussa Gueye

M5b.2 T0+24 Test of various ways of representing dust emissions.

Moussa Gueye

D5b T0+36 Publication: Representation of interactive dust in LMDZ.

Frédéric Hourdin

M5c1 T0+6 Definition of cases of radiative-convective equilibrium over land.

Nicolas Rochetin

M5c2 T0+18 Parametrisation of the trigger of deep convection by sub-grid soil moisture heterogeneity.

Nicolas Rochetin

M5c3 T0+18 Parametrization of sub-grid soil moisture heterogeneity induced by deep convection.

Nicolas Rochetin

D5c1 T0+18 Publication: Sensitivity of boundary layer, convection, clouds to surface conditions in radiative/convective equilibrium simulations.

Jean-Yves Grandpeix

D5c2 T0+30 Publication: Feedback analysis of the interaction between soil moisture and deep convection.

Jean-Yves Grandpeix

M5d T0+6 WRF simulations available Benjamin Pohl

D5d T0+24 Analysis of WRF simulations Post-Doc

4. STRATÉGIE DE VALORISATION, DE PROTECTION ET D’EXPLOITATION DES RÉSULTATS / DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATION OF RESULTS, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

A titre indicatif : 0,5 à 2 pages pour ce chapitre.Parmi les points suivants, présenter la (les) stratégie(s) de valorisation des résultats attendus:- la communication scientifique.- la communication auprès du grand public (un budget spécifique peut être

prévu),- les retombées scientifiques, techniques, industrielles, économiques, …- la place du projet dans la stratégie industrielle des entreprises partenaires

du projet.- autres retombées (brevet, normalisation, information des pouvoirs

publics, ...).- les échéances et la nature des retombées technico- économiques attendues.- l’incidence éventuelle sur l’emploi, la création d’activités nouvelles, …

Présenter les grandes lignes des modes de protection et d’exploitation des résultats.Pour les projets partenariaux organismes de recherche/entreprises, les partenaires devront conclure, sous l’égide du coordinateur du projet, un accord de consortium dans un délai de un an si le projet est retenu pour financement. Pour les projets académiques, l’accord de consortium n’est pas obligatoire mais conseillé.

The results of our studies will be first communicated through the standard scientific publications.

The publications on the analysis of the CMIP and Cordex simulations which will be available at T0+20 will be taken into account in the IPCC reports.

The AMMA-MIP web site (http://amma-mip.lmd.jussieu.fr) already exists.It will be used to present the evaluation of the CMIP and Cordex simulations. It will also be used to publicize the results of our researches.

Note that all the project will be a way to promote the original observations acquired during the AMMA experiment at the expense of a very strong human and financial effort. This will be also supported by the fact that Africa has been chosen as a particular area to focus on in the CMIP and Cordex frameworks.

The assessment of the CMIP and Cordex simulations in terms of realism of the representation of the rainfall distribution over West Africa, as well as in terms of decadal variations, or the confidence which can be given to the trends which will be produced in the climate change simulations are very important information for all the scientists or person who try to estimate the possible consequences on eco-systems and societies. A particular effort will be made to render the information accessible to a wide audience of specialists and non-specialists, in particular for people leaving in West-Africa.A syntheses of our main findings will be written in that sense at the end of the project in both English and French.

5. DESCRIPTION DU PARTENARIAT / CONSORTIUM DESCRIPTION A titre indicatif : de 2 à 5 pages pour ce chapitre, en fonction du nombre de partenaires.

5.1. DESCRIPTION, ADÉQUATION ET COMPLÉMENTARITÉ DES PARTENAIRES / PARTNERS DESCRIPTION AND RELEVANCE, COMPLEMENTARITY

(Maximum 0,5 page par partenaire)Décrire brièvement chaque partenaire et fournir ici les éléments permettant d’apprécier la qualification des partenaires dans le projet (le « pourquoi qui fait quoi »). Il peut s’agir de réalisations passées, d’indicateurs (publications, brevets), de l’intérêt du partenaire pour le projet, …Montrer en quoi la constitution de ce consortium donne une synergie par rapport à la simple somme des contributions individuelles. (1 page maximum).

The consortium is made of three main teams.

The LMD teamIt is the team mostly of climate physicists, with a large component of climate modelers. The team involves in particular key people of the development of LMDZ (Jean-Yves Grandpeix, Laurent Li and Frédéric Hourdin). Jean-Yves Grandpeix is a specialist of continental convection and its parameterization, and he recently oriented his research toward the coupling between convection and surface (Nicolas Rochetin PhD). Laurent Li is an expert in dynamical down-scaling (with zoomed versions of LMDZ) and is strongly involved in the

Cordex program. Frédéric Hourdin was the coordinator of the evaluation and improvement of climate models within the French and European AMMA project. Ionela Musat was in charge of the building of the AMMA-MIP web site and database. Serge Janicot (from Locean/IRD) is more a spectialist of the analysis of the climate variability. He was the coordinator in the AMMA project of all the questions concerning the monsoon system and its variability. Is also the leader of the AMMA-2 project recently submitted for a financial support by Insu. The team also includes people familiar with satelite (Geneviève Sèze) and GPS (Olivier Bock, from Lareg) observations. Agnès Ducharne is an expert in surface hydrology.

The CNRM-GAME teamIt is mostly composed of specialist of atmospheric process and land-atmosphere coupling. Françoise Guichard was strongly involved in the coordination of the AMMA-MIP exercise. She has experience with modelling of convective processes and analysis of data. Aaron Boon was the leader of a similar exercise for surface scheme (ALMIP). The team also works on numerical modelingof atmospheric processes (Fleur Couvreux) and monsoon system (Philippe Perillé, Jean-Philippe Lafore).The LMTG (sub) team is mainly involved in land surface processes and remote sensing. (Laurent Kergoat, Manuela Grippa). They have expertises in surface fluxes measurements and modelling, and vegetation satellite observations and modelling.They are also part of the group Service d'Observation AMMA-Catch, which has expertise on in-situ observations (surface fluxes, weather stations) on the Gourma super-site in Mali(LMTG), the Niger super-site (Hydrosciences Montpellier, Bernard Cappelaere and Jérome Demarty) and the Bénin site (LTHE, Sylvie Galle and Jean-Martial Cohard). Finally, Fabienne Lohou (Laboratoire d'Aérologie) has an expertise in surface and turbulence measurements and modelling.

The CRC teamThe Climate Research Centre is a CNRS unit at the Faculty of Science (~ 6 000 students) within the University of Burgundy (~27 000 students) and is therefore involved in French Master, PhD programs and training in which French and African scientists are taught. CRC was founded in 1969 and has currently 10 permanent scientists, plus 14 PhD’s and post-docs employed. These people are dealing with physical climatology and geography covering aspects in hydrology, land cover dynamics and impacts studies along with methodological / statistical developments. It is involved in several national and international research programs such as several ANR and CNRS programmes. It has also been successfully involved in 2 Work-packages of the EU /FP5 project “Predictability and Variability of Monsoons and the Agricultural and Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change” (PROMISE) and in 4 WPs of the European and also French AMMA programme.

The added values of the 3 teamsIt was essential for the program to put the following components together: 1) understanding of West African climate and climate variability. This expertize is brought into the project by CRC and Serge Janicot (Locean/LMD). 2) Climate modeling ; this expertize is brought by LMD. In particular, the work on the physical content of the models is often not connected to the analysis of the simulations. The link between those two aspects is essential if we want to progress in our understanding of the processes involved in the climate variability and improve the representation of those processes in the models. 3) land-atmosphere processes and surface variables. This expertize is mainly brought by the CNRM team (and the LMTG within it). In the past, the work on climate modeling and on the role of land-atmosphere coupling in the climate variability and sensitivity was essentially not connected with the observations of land-surface interactions and surface variables. This is one main aspect of the project to try to make the link between land-atmosphere processes involved in the virtual world of the climate models and correlations between observed surface variables.

5.2. QUALIFICATION DU COORDINATEUR DE LA PROPOSITION DE PROJET/ QUALIFICATION OF THE PROPOSAL COORDINATOR

(0,5 page maximum)Fournir les éléments permettant de juger la capacité du coordinateur à coordonner le projet.

Frédéric Hourdin is a climate physicist and modeler with a large experience in coordination. He is deputy director of LMD. He has been the coordinator of the developments of the LMDZ climate model for several years. In that respect, he worked recently on the parameterization of the convective boundary layers and associated clouds in climate models, a key issue for the improvement of the representation of the monsoon system and surface variables. He also initiated work on the coupling between atmosphere and surface in the Paris area, comparing model results with the observations at the Sirta Super-sites at Ecole Polytechnique. He initiated the PhD of Aurelien Campoy on that subject together with Agnès Ducharne (an hydrologist from Sysiphe). He was also strongly involved in the AMMA program and in the study of the African Monsoon. He spent 18 months in Dakar Senegal during the AMMA program. Within the AMMA program, he was in charge of the coordination of the evaluation and improvement of climate models, both for the French and European projects, and proposed and developed the AMMA-Model Inter-comparison Program. AMMA-MIP was the occasion to reinforce the collaborations and links with Françoise Guichard at CNRM around land-atmosphere processes and observations at the AMMA super-sites. He is also the adviser of Abdoul Khadre Traore who carried out research studies the intermediate-complexity simulations of the decadal variability in West Africa.

5.3. QUALIFICATION, RÔLE ET IMPLICATION DES PARTICIPANTS / QUALIFICATION AND CONTRIBUTION OF EACH PARTNER

(2 pages maximum)Pour chaque partenaire, remplir le tableau ci-dessous qui précisera la qualification, les activités principales et les compétences propres de chaque participant :

Pour les personnes impliquées à plus de 25% de leur temps dans le projet, placer une biographie en annexe 7.2. Pour les personnes impliquées dans d’autres projets, remplir le tableau en annexe 7.3.

Laboratoire Name First name

Position Discipline Personmonth

Rôle and responsability in the project4 lignes max

LMD

Project coordinator Hourdin Frédéric DR2 CNRS Climate physicist

16 Coordinator

Numerical modelling.

Coordinator Task 4 Grandpeix Jean-Yves

CR1 CNRS Physicist 15 Numerical molling, coupled processes

Coordinator Task 1 Musat Ionela IE1 CNRS Climate-computer scientist

14 Model evaluation.

Control simulations with LMDZ.

AMMA-MIP coordination.

Analysis of CMIP simulations

Li Laurent DR2 CNRS Climate scientist

5 Cordex numerical experiments;

Downscalling analysis.Extreme events.

Seze Geneviève

CR1 CNRS Climate scientists

7 Satellite observations

Coordinator Task 2

Main contact at Locean

Janicot Serge DR2 IRD

(Locean)Climate variability scientist

9 Coordinator Task 2

Post doc co-supervisor

Statistical and diagnostics analyses

Bastin Sophie (Latmos) 8

Ducharne Agnès CR2 CNRS

(Sisyphe)4 Hydrological modeling

Advizer of A. Campoy PhD

Bock Olivier (Lareg) 4 GPS observations and water budgets.

Rochetin Nicolas PhD student

Climate physicsit

12 Coupled land-surface processes. Numerical modelling.

Campoy Aurélien PhD Climate scientist

8 Long term climate simulations with various configuration of the Orchidee model coupled to LMDZ

Salack Seyni PhD Dakar Agro/climato

6 Characterisation of the distribution of rainfall

Gueye Moussa PhD student in Dakar

6 Numerical modelling of dust aerosols in LMDZ

Traore Abdoul Khadre

Post-doc Climate scientist

36 Analysis of decadal variations in CMIP simulations and realization and analysis of intermediate-complexity simulations with LMDZ

CNRM

Coordinator Task 2

Main contact at CNRM-GAME

Guichard Françoise

CR1 CNRS Surface and convective processes

18 treatment and analysis of observations

Post doc supervisor

T1a,

Link with super-sites (LMTG/LTHE/HSM)

Kergoat Laurent CR1 CNRS

(LMTG)Land surface processes

9 Satellite and in-situ products (fluxes)

Grippa Manuela Phys Adj CNAP

(LMTG)

Land surface remote sensing

6 Satellite products

Model evaluation

Boone Aaron CR1 CNRS Land surface modelling

4 Surface modelling

Bouniol Dominique

CR1 CNRS Clouds 4 Cloud products

Couvreux Fleur Météo- Atmospher 4 Numerical modelling

France ic Boundary layer Physicist

Peyrillé Philippe Météo-France

Physicist 3 Numerical modelling

Lafore Jean-Philippe

Météo-France

Physicist 3 Numerical modelling

Redelperger Jean-Luc DR1 CNRS Physicist 3 Numerical modelling

Lohou Fabienne

MCF

(LA)Physicist 3 Surface flux data

Cappelaere Bernard IR

(HSM)Physicist 1 Surface data (Niger)

Demarty Jerome CR IRD

(HSM)Physicist 1 Surface data (Niger)

Cohard Jean-Martial

MCF

(LTHE)Physicist 2 Surface data (Benin)

Galle Sylvie CR IRD

(LTHE)Physicist 1 Surface data (Benin)

X X Post-doc 36 Post doc on the analysis of surface variables and land-atmosphere processes in the super-site observations and climate simulations.

X X Msc student

(LA)

5 Stage M2

X X Msc student

(LMTG/LTHE)

5 Stge M2

X X Msc Student

(LMTG/HSM)

5 Stage M2

X X Msc student

(LMTG)

5 Stage M2

CRC

Main contact at CRC

Pohl Benjamin

CR2 CNRS Climate scientist

12 Regional simulations and sensitivity experiments, decadal-intraseasonal scale interactions

Fontaine Bernard DR2 CNRS Climate scientist

7 Analysis of observed and simulated decadal variability

Roucou Pascal MCF univ. Bourgogne

Climate scientist

7 Simulated intraseasonal variability

Camberlin Pierre Prof. univ. Bourgogne

Climate scientist

3 Analysis of simulated surface-atmosphere coupling

Martiny Nadège MCF univ. Bourgogne

Climate scientist

3 Analysis of simulated surface-atmosphere coupling

Ullmann Albin MCF univ. Bourgogne

Climate scientist

3 Analysis of simulated decadal variability scale interactions with intraseasonal variability

Monerie Paul-Arthur

PhD student

12 Analysis of CMIP simulations

X MSc student

5 Analysis of WRF sensitivity to surface schemes

X MSc student

5 Analysis of WRF sensitivity to grid resolution

X MSc student

5 Analysis of simulated intraseasonal variability in WRF

X Post-doc 18 Analysis of observed and simulated intraseasonal variability and coupled mechanisms

6. JUSTIFICATION SCIENTIFIQUE DES MOYENS DEMANDÉS / SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION OF REQUESTED RESSOURCES

Présenter ici la justification scientifique et technique des moyens demandés par partenaire tel que rempli en ligne sur le site de soumission.Chaque partenaire justifiera les moyens qu’il demande en distinguant les différents postes de dépenses.(Maximum 2 pages par partenaire)

19500 € must be added to the description bellow for structural management fees.

6.1. PARTENAIRE 1 / PARTNER 1: LMD

1. Équipement / EquipmentPréciser la nature des équipements1 et justifier le choix des équipementsSi nécessaire, préciser la part de financement demandé sur le projet et si les achats envisagés doivent être complétés par d’autres sources de financement. Si tel est le cas, indiquer le montant et l’origine de ces financements complémentaires.25 k€: external raid device (60 Tb) for the the storage of the CMIP, Cordex and LMDZ simulations and analysis.

2. Personnel / StaffJustifier le personnel à financer par l’ANR sur le projet.

Financial support is asked for a post-doctoral position of 3 years (147 k€)The post-doc will work on the analysis of the decadal variability in the climate simulations and in the intermediate-complexity simulations. The post-doc would be at the heart of Task 2. He will in particular realize the intermediate complexity simulations and analyze the decadal variations in those simulations as well as in the CMIP simulations. We will also contribute to

1 Un devis sera demandé si le projet est retenu pour financement.

the evaluation of the representation of the seasonal evolution of the West African climate in those simulations.

Financial support for long stays for Senegales students(in a spirit of “capacity building” in West Africa).It was an important issue in the AMMA program to help a new generation of scientists (in climate more particularly) to emerge in West Africa. Frédéric Hourdin, during his stay in Dakar, initiated teaching on climate modeling, which resulted in several PhD thesis either in Dakar, or in “co-tutelle” with France. It is very important that those students comme for long stays in France. Two of them (Salack Seyni and Moussa Gueye) are concerned in this project. 12 months are asked with 1700 € per month: 20 k€

Total: 167 k€

3. Prestation de service externe / SubcontractingPréciser :- la nature des prestations.- le type de prestataire.

4. Missions / TravelPréciser:- les missions liées aux travaux d’acquisition sur le terrain (campagnes de

mesures…)- les missions relevant de colloques, congrès…

36 k€: coordination meeting of the full project will be organized each six month in Paris by the LMD team. 6 meetings on two days each, with 5 participants from Dijon (200€) euros per missions) and 10 from Toulouse (500 € per mission) are planned ( 6 X 6k €).

10 k€: participation to 4 international conferences (EGU, AGU)

Total: 46 k€.

5. Dépenses justifiées sur une procédure de facturation interne / Costs justified by internal invoicies

Préciser la nature des prestations.

6. Autres dépenses de fonctionnement / Other expensesToute dépense significative relevant de ce poste devra être justifiée.

20 k€: 3 laptops and USB disks (6 k€) publication fees (14 k€)

6.2. PARTENAIRE 2 / PARTNER 2: CNRM…Post-doc

Financial support is asked for a post-doctoral position of 2 years. The work will focus on the analysis of observations, surface variables and clouds, for seasonal and short-term inter-annual variability first and then for the decadal scale. Given the organisation of the work, it is planned that the candidate will work at CNRM-GAME the first 12 months, and in close collaboration with LMTG the last 12 months. The candidate will first jointly analyse surface variables along the latitude transect with surface flux and automatic weather stations. This first phase will benefit from close interactions with D. Bouniol (clouds) and A. Boone (land surface modelling). This will provide the first observationally based analysis of surface energy meridional gradients, and a benchmark for model evaluations, including also ALMIP. Models will be compared to mesoscale aggregated estimates. Collaborations within the DECAF ANR project will use these analyses to evaluate the CMIP5 simulations. The second phase of the work will rely on analysis of longer time series, with a particular focus on albedo and vegetation satellite products, in close collaboration with L. Kergoat and M. Grippa (LMTG). In particular, an attempt will be made to relate in-situ measurements of diurnal temperature range, moist static energy and humidity to those variables. The candidate is expected to have robust bases in the physics of surface and boundary layer processes (in particular radiation and turbulence). An experience with the manipulation of satellite data would be appreciated as well.

Laboratoire d'Aérologie (partner under CNRM-GAME)

master gratification, M2 (2kE) publication charges (1kE)

LMTG (partner under CNRM-GAME)

participation to one international conference (2.5 kE)master gratification, M2 (2 kE)one laptop (2 kE)publication charges (1kE)

LTHE (partner under CNRM-GAME)

master gratification de stage M2 (2kE) disks (1kE)

Hydrosciences Montpellier (partner under CNRM-GAME)

master gratification, M2 (2kE) publication charges (1kE)

7. Autres dépenses de fonctionnement / Other expenses

laptop and disks (2.5 kE)publication charges (4.5 kE)

6.3. PARTENAIRE 3 / PARTNER 3: CRC

1. Équipement / Equipment

12 k€: external raid device for the storage of the CMIP and WRF simulations and analysis.

2. Personnel / Staff

A financial support is asked for a Post-Doc position at CRC (18 months funded by the project, XXk€).The recruited post-doc will help designing, running and analyzing WRF experiments under present-day conditions. Lateral forcings are provided by ERA-Interim reanalyses. Over the Sahel, a nesting technique will be employed to obtain a smooth transition between the resolution of the forcing GCM and a 10-12km high resolution. The post-doc will be in charge to analyze the sensitivity of simulated climate to the Land Surface Model used in WRF, including simplified schemes that damp the surface feedbacks. The scale effects will also be analyzed by considering experiments with and without nested domains (i.e. experiments at different resolutions). Considered scales will include the meso-scale convective systems, African Easterly Waves, and intraseasonal variability in the 10-25 and 25-60 day frequency bins.3 MSc students will help analyzing decadal WRF simulations (3 * 2100€ = 6300).

3. Missions / Missions

5000€- coordination meetings: Dijon – Paris by train, 2 people * 3 years 600€- national modeling meetings: Dijon – Paris by train / Dijon – Toulouse by plane, 1 person * 3 years 900€- international meetings / conferences (e.g., EGU: Paris – Vienna by plane + Dijon – Paris by train): 1 person * 3 years 3500€

4. Autres dépenses de fonctionnement / Other expenses

7000€• 2 laptops (2 * 1000€)• other expenses / publication charges (5000€)

•

7. ANNEXES / ANNEXESLes annexes ne sont pas comptabilisées dans la limite des 40 pages à respecter.

7.1. RÉFÉRENCES BIBLIOGRAPHIQUES / REFERENCES

Inclure la liste des références bibliographiques utilisées dans la partie « Etat de l’art ».

Références de la partie Etat de l'art

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Ramier D., N. Boulain, B. Cappelaere, F. Timouk, M. Rabanit, C. R. Lloyd, S. Boubkraoui, F. Métayer, L. Descroix, V. Wawrzyniak, 2009: Towards an understanding of coupled physical and biological processes in the cultivated Sahel – 1. Energy and water. J. Hydrology, 375, 204-216.

Rayner N.A., and co-authors (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407

Redelsperger, J.-L., C.~D. Thorncroft, A. Diedhiou , T. Lebel , D.~J. Parker, and J. Polcher, 2006: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis: An International Research Project and Field Campaign, 2006, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 87, issue 12, p.~1739}, 87, 1739--+

Rio, C., and F. Hourdin (2008) A thermal plume model for the convective boundary layer : Representation of cumulus clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 407-425, 2008

Rio, C., F. Hourdin, J.-Y. Grandpeix, and J.-P. Lafore, (2009) Shifting the diurnal cycle of parameterized deep convection over land, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 7809-+

Rio, C., F. Hourdin, F. Couvreux and A. Jam, (2010) Resolved versus parametrized boundary-layer plumes. Part II: Continuous Formulations of Mixing Rates for Mass-Flux Schemes, BLM in press

Rotstayn, L.D. and U. Lohmann (2002) Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect. J. Climate, 15, 2103-2116.

Ruti et al., 2010 ASL in press

Samain, O., Kergoat, L., Hiernaux, P., Guichard, F., Mougin, E., Timouk, F., Lavenu, F., 2008. Analysis of the in situ and MODIS albedo variability at multiple time scales in the Sahel. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D14119. doi:10.1029/2007JD009174

Sèze and Pawlowska 2001 Sijikumar S., Roucou P., Fontaine B., 2006: Monsoon onset over Sudan-Sahel: Simulation

by the regional scale model MM5. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03814

Simmons A, Uppala SM, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2007) ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:25–35

Skamarock W, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill D, Barker D, Duda M, Huang X, Wang W, Powers J (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN\u2013475+STR, 123 pp.

Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller Jr., and Z. ChenEds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

Slingo, A., H. E. White, N. A. Bharmal, and G.J. Robinson, 2009: Overview of observations from the RADAGAST experiment in Niamey, Niger: 2. Radiative fluxes and divergences, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00E04

Taylor, C.M., Ellis, R.J., 2006. Satellite detection of soil moisture impacts on convection at the mesoscale. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L03404.

Taylor, C.M., D.J. Parker and P.P. Harris (2007) An observational case study of mesoscale atmospheric circulations induced by soil moisture. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15801, doi:10.1029/2007GL030572.

Taylor, C.M., 2008. Intraseasonal land-atmosphere coupling in the West African monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 6636-6648.

Taylor, C.M., P.P. Harris and D.J. Parker (2009) Impact of soil moiture on the development of a Sahelian mesoscale convective system: A case-study from the AMMA Special Observing Period. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.465.

Timouk, F., Kergoat, L., Mougin, E., Lloyd, C., Ceschia, E., De Rosnay, P., Hiernaux, P., Demarez, V., 2009: Response of sensible heat flux to water regime and vegetation development in a central Sahelian landscape. J. Hydrol. 375 (1–2), 178–189.

Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li Cuihua (2009) Forced and internal 20th century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:1469-1481

Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein Tank A, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N.Y., USA

Vigaud N., Roucou P., Fontaine B., Sijikumar S., Tyteca S., 2009: WRF/ARPEGE-CLIMAT simulated climate trends over West Africa. Climate Dyn., published on line

,

Wang, J., F. J. F. Chagnon, E. Williams, A. K. Betts, N. O. Renno, L. A. T. Machado, G. Bisht, R. Knox and R. L. Bras (2009), Impact of deforestation in the Amazon basin on cloud climatology. PNAS, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0810156106.

Yoshioka, M., N.M. Mahowald, A.J. Conley, W.D. Collins, D.W. Fillmore, C.S. Zender and D.B. Coleman (2007) Impact of desert dust radiative forcing on Sahel precipitation : relative importance of dust compared to SST variations, vegetation chnages and greehouse gas warming. J.Climate, 20, 1445-1466.

Zeng N, Neelin JD, Lau KM, Tucker CJ (1999) Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science 286:1537-1540

List of acronymsAMMA : African Monsoon Multidisciplinary AnalysesAMMA-API : AMMA project funded by a consortium of french Agencies (API stands for Action Programmée Inter-organismes)AMMA-MIP : AMMA Model Inter-comparison Project

AMMA-EU : AMMA project funded by the 6th

Framework Program of the EUropean Commission.AMO : Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, a SST pattern connected to the oceanic thermohaline circulationAqua-train name of a spatial program involving quasi-simultaneous measurements from a train of satellitesAERONET AErosol RObotic NETworkARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement AVHRR Advanced Very igh Resolution RadiometerCALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infra-Red Pathfinder Satellite ObservationsCFMIP : Cloud Feedbacks Model Inter-comparison ProjectCLOUDSAT name of a satellite that uses radar to observe clouds and precipitation from spaceCMIP : Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project

Cordex : COordinated Regional climate Downscaling ExperimentCRU Climatic Research UnitDTR Diurnal Temparature RangeEPIDOM : Evaluation de la Prévision Interannuelle à Décennale à partir des Observations et des ModèlesEUMETSAT: EUropean organization for the Exploitation of METeorological SATellites ERA40: European-Center Re-Analyses, for the period 1957-2002ERAinterim: European-Center 'interim' Re-Analyses of the period 1989-present, produced in preparation for the next-generation extended reanalysis to replace ERA-40

ESCAPE: Environmental and Social Changes in Africa: Past, present and future; Projet finance par ANR CEP&SGCSS : the Gewex Cloud System Study project is developing better parameterizations of cloud systems for climate models by improving understanding of the physical processes at work within the following types of cloud systemsGEWEX : the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is an integrated program of research, observations, and science activities ultimately leading to the prediction of global and regional climate changeGPS Global Positioning SystemHadiSST: Hadley Center Global sea Ice Coverage and Sea Surface Temperature data (1870-present) SST développée par le Hadley CentreHapex : Hydrological and Atmospheric Pilot EXperimentIPCC : The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. IPCC-AR5 (or 4) : 5th (or 4th) IPCC Assessment Report

ISCCP International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project ITCZ : Intertropical Convergence ZoneLMD : Laboratoire de Météorologie DynamiqueLMDZ : LMD atmospheric general circulation model, the Z of the name referring to the Zoom (grid refinement) capability.LWin : incoming Long-Wave radiation at surface LWnet : net Long-Wave radiation at surfaceLWup : upward Long-Wave radiation at surface METEOSAT famille de satellites météorologiques géostationnairesMJO : Madden Julian OscillationMODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroradiometerNCDC: National Climatic Data CenterNCAR : National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNCEP: National Center for Environmental Prediction, USARin : incoming total (Long-Wave + Short-Wave) Radiation at surface.Rnet : net total (Long-Wave + Short-Wave) Radiation at surface.Rup : upward total (Long-Wave + Short-Wave) Radiation at surface.SEVIRI: Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed ImagerSOP : Special Observing Periods of the AMMA campaign, conducted during summer 2006.SST : Sea Surface TemperatureSWin : incoming Short-Wave radiation at surfaceSWnet : net Short-Wave radiation at surfaceSWup : upward Short-Wave radiation at surface SYNOP: Surface SYNOPtic observationsWRF : The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.

7.2. BIOGRAPHIES / CV, RESUME

(1 page maximum par personne)Pour chacune des personnes dont l’implication dans le projet est supérieure à 25% de son temps sur la totalité du projet (c'est-à-dire une moyenne de 3 personnes.mois par année de projet), une biographie d’une page maximum est souhaitée. Elle comportera :- Nom, prénom, âge, cursus, situation actuelle- Autres expériences professionnelles- Liste des cinq publications (ou brevets) les plus significatives des cinq

dernières années, nombre de publications dans les revues internationales ou actes de congrès à comité de lecture.

- Prix, distinctions

CV Jean-Yves GRANDPEIX

1947 : born in Clermont-Ferrand, France1969 : Permanent position at CNRS1971-1977 : PhD, University Paris 11, (High Energy Physics).1982-1993 : Building energy analysis: experiments and modeling

1993- . . . : Climate modeling at LMD

Expertise:• Parameterization of deep convection.• Modelling of heterogeneous systems: coupling and feedback analysis. • Numerical modeling of climate change. • West African climate.

5 most significative publications in the 5 last years:1. Hourdin, F., I. Musat, S. Bony, P. Braconnot, F. Codron, J.-L. Dufresne, L. Fairhead, M.-A.

Filiberti, P. Friedlingstein, J.-Y. Grandpeix, G. Krinner, P. Levan, Z.-X. Li, and F. Lott, 2006a, The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Climate Dynamics, 27, 787–813, 2006.

2. Hallegatte, S., A. Lahellec, J.Y. Grandpeix (2006) An Elicitation of the Dynamic Nature of Water Vapor Feedback in Climate Change Using a 1D Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63, 7, 1878-1894.

3. Grandpeix J.-Y. and J.P. Lafore (2009) A density current parametrization coupled to Emanuel's convection scheme. Part I: The models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, sous presse.

4. Grandpeix J.-Y., J.P. Lafore and F. Cheruy (2009) A density current parametrization coupled to Emanuel's convection scheme. Part II: 1D simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, sous presse.

5. Rio, C., F. Hourdin, J.-Y. Grandpeix, and J.-P. Lafore, 2009, Shifting the diurnal cycle of parameterized deep convection over land,Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 7809-+ 2009

CV Frédéric Hourdin

1966 : born in Paris, France1989-1992 : PhD, University Paris 7, Astrophysique et techniques spatiales.1994 : Permanent position at CNRS2005 : “habilitation à diriger des recherches”2009 : “directeur scientific adjoint” at LMD

Expertise:• Study and numerical modeling of the general circulation of planetary atmosphere (the Earth,

Mars, Titan, Venus). • Numerical modeling of the Earth climate and climate change. • Numerical modeling of the advection of atmospheric trace species and inversion of atmospheric

transport. • Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer. • West African climate. • In charge of the development LMDZ global climate model.

Publications available at : http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~hourdin/publis.html

5 most significative publications in the 5 last years:1. Hourdin, I. Musat, F. Guichard, P. M. Ruti, F. Favot, M.-A. Filiberti,* M. Pham, J.-Y. Grandpeix, J. Polcher, P. Marquet, A. Boone, J.-P. Lafore, J.-L. Redelsperger, A. Dell’aquila, T. Losada Doval, A. K. Traore, and H. Gallée, (2009) AMMA-Model Intercomparison Prokkect, BAMS, 91 : 95-+2. Hourdin, F., I. Musat, S. Bony, P. Braconnot, F. Codron, J.-L. Dufresne, L. Fairhead, M.-A. Filiberti, P. Friedlingstein, J.-Y. Grandpeix, G. Krinner, P. Levan, Z.-X. Li, and F. Lott, 2006a, The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Climate Dynamics, 27, 787–813, 2006a.

3. Rannou, P., F. Montmessin, F. Hourdin, and S. Lebonnois, 2006, The Latitudinal Distribution of Clouds on Titan, Science, 311, 201–205, 2006.4. Rio, C., et F. Hourdin, A thermal plume model for the convective boundary layer : Representation of cumulus clouds, J. of Atmosph. Sci., 65, 407–425, 2008.5. Rio, C., F. Hourdin, J.-Y. Grandpeix, and J.-P. Lafore, 2009, Shifting the diurnal cycle of parameterized deep convection over land,Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 7809-+ 2009

CV Serge JANICOT

Adresse : Laboratoire LOCEAN, IPSL, Université Pierre et Marie CurieBoite 100, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris cedex 05Tel : 33 1.44.27.75.36 Fax : 33 1.44.27.38.05 E Mail : serge.janicot@locean-ipsl.upmc.fr

Age : 52 ans

Diplômes :Thèse de Doctorat d’Université Paris 6 (1990)Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches (2002)

Activités professionnelles en 2010 :Directeur de Recherches à l’Institut de Recherches pour le Développement

Autres responsabilités depuis 2000 :Membre du Conseil Scientifique du PNEDC (2000-2005)Membre du Comité de Coordination du projet AMMA (2000- 2009)Coordinateur du projet AMMA2 pour la France (2010-2012)

Responsable du Work-Package « Climat Global et Mousson Africaine » de AMMA (2005-2009)

Co-organisateur des sessions AMMA à l’EGU (2003-présent)Membre des Comités d’attribution de bourses IRD (2003-2006)Co-Responsable du Comité Scientifique de la Conférence Internationale AMMA (2009)

Direction de thèses :Directeur de 6 thèses déjà soutenues. Co-direction actuelle de 2 thèses de doctorat.

Bibliographie :• 65 publications dans des revues à comité de lecture, 46 autres publications, plus de 100

présentations lors de congrès internationaux.

(les 5 publications les plus importantes depuis 2005)

Mounier, F. S. Janicot and G. Kiladis, 2008: The West African monsoon dynamics. Part III: The quasi-biweekly zonal dipole. J. Climate, 21, 1911-1928. Janicot, S. and co-authors, 2008: Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West and Central Africa during the AMMA field experiment of 2006. Ann. Geophysicae, 26, 2569-2595Pohl, B., S. Janicot, B. Fontaine and R. Marteau, 2009 : Implication of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the 40-day variability of the West African monsoon, and associated rainfall anomalies. J. Climate, 22, 3769-3785, doi :10.1175/2009JCLI2805.1Janicot, S., F. Mounier, N.M. Hall, S. Leroux, B. Sultan and G. Kiladis, 2009: The dynamics of the West African monsoon. Part IV: Analysis of 25-90-day variability of convection and the role of the Indian monsoon. In press J. Climate.Sultan, B., S. Janicot and S. Correia 2009 : Medium-lead prediction of intraseasonal oscillations in West Africa. Weather and Forecasting, Special Issue « West African weather prediction and predictability », 24, 767-784, doi :10.1175/2008WAF2222155.1.

CV Laurent KERGOAT

1964 : born in Landerneau, France1982-1995 : PhD, University Paul Sabatier Toulouse, Remote sensing of land surface.1997 : Permanent position at CNRSExpertise:

• Modeling of ecosystem and land surface properties, carbon and water cycle • Remote sensing of land surface, large scale plant phenology. • Measurements and analysis of surface fluxes (CO2, energy) • West African ecosystems

Publications available at : http://kergoat.laurent.free.fr/publications.html

5 most significative publications in the 5 last years:- Mougin E, Hiernaux P, Kergoat L, Grippa M, de Rosnay P, Timouk F, Le Dantec V, Demarez V, La-venu F, Arjounin M, Lebel T, Soumaguel N, Ceschia E, Mougenot B, Baup F, Frappart F, Frison PL, Gardelle J, Gruhier C, Jarlan L, Mangiarotti S, Sanou B, Tracol Y, Guichard F, Trichon V, Diarra L, Soumaré A, Koité M, Dembélé F, Lloyd C, Hanan NP, Damesin C, Delon C, Serça D, Galy-Lacaux C, Seghiéri J Becerra S, Dia H, Gangneron F, Mazzega P, 2009, The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observato-ry site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and na-tural resources. Journal of Hydrology 375 (1-2),14-33. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.045

- Timouk F, Kergoat L, Mougin E, Lloyd CR, Ceschia E, Cohard JM, de Rosnay P, Hiernaux P, Dema-rez V, C.M. Taylor, 2009, Response of surface energy balance to water regime and vegetation deve-lopment in a Sahelian landscape, Journal of Hydrology 375 (1-2),178-189. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.022

- Kergoat L, Lafont S, Arneth A, Le Dantec V, Saugier B, 2008, Nitrogen controls plant canopy Light-Use-Efficiency in temperate and boreal ecosystems, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, G04017 doi:10.1029/2007JG000676

- Samain O, Kergoat L, Hiernaux H, Guichard F, Mougin E, Timouk F, Lavenu F, 2008, Analysis of the in situ and MODIS albedo variability at multiple time-scales in the Sahel, Journal of Geophysical Re-search, 113, D14119, doi:10.1029/2007JD009174

- Delbart N, Picard G, Le Toan T, Kergoat L, Quegan S, Woodward I, V Fedotova, 2008, Spring phenology in boreal Eurasia over a nearly century time-scale, Global Change Biology, 14, 603–614, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01505.x

CV Paul-Arthur MONERIE

Born 23/08/1984 in Chambray-lès-Tours

EDUCATION & DIPLOMAS OBTAINED:

• 2009-2010 First year of thesis “Impacts of the Mediterranean sea on the water resources in France and in western Africa, within the influence of climate change”. (Center of Climatology, Dijon, France.) • 2008-2009 University of Burgundy, Science, Technology & Health, Master 2 research Geobiosphere, speciality climatology and environment • 2007-2008 University of Burgundy, Science, Technology & Health, Master 1 Environmental Science • 2004-2007 University of Bordeaux I, Science and Technology, Bachelor of Science Earth and Ocean Sciences, Upper second class honours • 2003-2004 Créasud School, Diploma of Applied Arts (Bordeaux, France) • 2002-2003 Sainte Ursule High school (Tours, France) Science baccalaureate, with mathematics INTERNSHIP AND EXPERIENCE:

2009 Internship (six months) at the Research Center of Climatology, Dijon, France. studying the relationship between the West African monsoon and the Mediterranean sea. 2009 Environmental and climatological fieldwork on CO2 variation (d13c and concentration), regional climate and their relationships (Dijon). 2008 Internship (five weeks) at the Research Center of Climatology (Dijon), on dry spells in West Africa.2008 Study of a vineyard parcel at Beaune, with relation to soil and micro-climate. 2007 Sedimentological fieldwork Massif Central, Dignes, Pyrenees 2006 Microtectonic Fieldwork, Pays Basques. Basque Country QUALIFICATIONS & SKILLS:

• Computer Skills: o Office tools: Word, Excel, PowerPoint o Professional tools: Statview, Matlab, Vensim, KaleidaGraph

• English: B2 in the Common European Framework of Reference for Language • Spanish: A2/B1 in the Common European Framework of Reference for Language

CV Ionela MUSATBorn in 1998 in RoumaniePhD in 1998, UPMC, ParisIE2 at CNRS since 2001

Expertize Key people of the development and evaluation of the LMDZ model. In charge of the realisation of the AMMA-MIP exercise.

4. Expertise in the analysis of satellite observations.

Most significative publications in the 5 last years:Hourdin, I. Musat, F. Guichard, P. M. Ruti, F. Favot, M.-A. Filiberti,* M. Pham, J.-Y. Grandpeix, J. Polcher, P. Marquet, A. Boone, J.-P. L afore, J.-L. Redelsperger, A. Dell’aquila, T. Losada Doval, A. K. Traore, and H. Gallée (2010) AMMA-Model Intercomparison Project, BAMS, in pressHourdin, F., I. Musat, S. Bony, P. Braconnot, F. Codron, J.-L. Dufresne, L. Fairhead, M.-A. Filiberti, P. Friedlingstein, J.-Y. Grandpeix, G. Krinner, P. Levan, Z.-X. Li, and F. Lott, 2006a, The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Climate Dynamics, 27, 787–813, 2006.

CV Benjamin Pohl

1980: born in Saint-Vallier, France2004-2007: PhD, university of Burgundy, France (Climatology)2009: Permanent position at CNRS

Expertise: statistics and signal analysis observed and simulated climate variability over Africa intraseasonal variability and scale interactions

15 publications in international journals in the last 5 years – Full list available at:http://climatologie.u-bourgogne.fr/perso/bpohl/Publications.html

5 most significative publications in the 5 last years:

Pohl B & H Douville, 2010: Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: Summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability. Climate Dynamics, published on line. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0911-2

Bielli S, H Douville & B Pohl, 2010: Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology. Climate Dynamics, 35, 159-174. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0667-8

Pohl B, S Janicot, B Fontaine & R Marteau, 2009: Implication of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the 40-day variability of the West African monsoon. Journal of Climate, 22, 3769-3785. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2805.1

Pohl B & AJ Matthews, 2007: Observed changes in the life time and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation associated with interannual ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, 20, 2659-2674. doi:10.1175/JCLI4230.1

Pohl B & P Camberlin, 2006a: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall. Part I: Intraseasonal variability and regional dependency. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132, 2521-2539. doi:10.1256/qj.05.104

CV Paul-Arthur MONERIE

Born 23/08/1984 in Chambray-lès-Tours

EDUCATION & DIPLOMAS OBTAINED: • 2009-2010 First year of thesis “Impacts of the Mediterranean sea on the water resources in France and in western Africa, within the influence of climate change”. (Center of Climatology, Dijon, France.) • 2008-2009 University of Burgundy, Science, Technology & Health, Master 2 research Geobiosphere, speciality climatology and environment • 2007-2008 University of Burgundy, Science, Technology & Health, Master 1 Environmental Science • 2004-2007 University of Bordeaux I, Science and Technology, Bachelor of Science Earth and Ocean Sciences, Upper second class honours

INTERNSHIP AND EXPERIENCE: 2009 Internship (six months) at the Research Center of Climatology, Dijon, France. studying the relationship between the West African monsoon and the Mediterranean sea. 2009 Environmental and climatological fieldwork on CO2 variation (d13c and concentration), regional climate and their relationships (Dijon). 2008 Internship (five weeks) at the Research Center of Climatology (Dijon), on dry spells in West Africa.

QUALIFICATIONS & SKILLS: • Computer Skills:

o Office tools: Word, Excel, PowerPoint o Professional tools: Statview, Matlab, Vensim, KaleidaGraph

7.3. IMPLICATION DES PERSONNES DANS D’AUTRES CONTRATS / STAFF INVOLVMENT IN OTHER CONTRACTS

(Un tableau par partenaire)Mentionner, pour chacune des personnes, leur implication dans d’autres projets en cours (Contrats publics et privés, soit au sein de programmes de l’ANR, soit auprès d’organismes, de fondations, à l’Union Européenne, etc…) que ce soit comme coordinateur ou comme partenaire. Pour chacun, donner le nom de l’appel à projets, le titre du projet et le nom du coordinateur.

Part.CRC

Nom de la personne

participant au projet / name

Personne. Mois /

PM

Intitulé de l’appel à projets, source de

financement, montant attribué / Project name,

financing institution, grant allocated

Titre du projet :

Project title

Nom du coordinateur /

coordinator name

Date début &

Date fin / Start and end dates

N° Pohl 6 ANR VMCS

650K€

PICREVAT Vincent Moron 2009-2012

N° Camberlin 19 ANR VMCS

650K€

PICREVAT Vincent Moron 2009-2012

N° Fontaine 5 ANR VMCS RESSAC Jean-Emmanuel Paturel

2007-2010

N° Roucou 7 ANR VMCS RESSAC Jean-Emmanuel Paturel

2007-2010

N° Janicot 12 sur 2 ans

LEFE AMMA S. Janicot 2010-2012

N° Janicot 1 sur 2 ans

ANR VMCS PICREVAT V. Moron 2009-2012

N° Janicot 2 sur 3 ans

ANR blanche PALAM-2K M. Carré soumis pour 3 ans