2007 GAVEA Labor Report

8/6/2019 2007 GAVEA Labor Report

1/32GAVEA

A N T E L O P E V A L L E Y L A b O r M A r k E T S T u d Y

2 0 0 7


2/32


3/32GAVEA

Bakersfield

Mojave

Edwards

Barstow

LakeLos Angeles

Rosamond

Littlerock

Pearblossom

Quartz Hill

Lake Hughes

Newhall

Sylmar

Burbank

Whittier

Pomona San Bernardino

RiversideAnaheim

Santa Ana

Kern

San Bernardino

RiversideOrange

LosAngeles

Ventura

AV EconomicRegion

Simi ValleyVentura

OxnardSANTAMONICAMTNS

TEHACHAPI MTNS

SANBERNARDINO MTNS

PACIFIC OCEAN

EDWARDS AIR FORCEBASE

Lake Elizabeth

Green ValleyCastaic

Valencia

RedondoBeach

Acton

LeonaValley

SantaClarita

Boron

Randsburg

N

Antelope Valley Region Covers Roughly 2,800 Suare Miles

Following Sub-Regions Added

Ridgecrest Area Added 2006

Tehachapi Area Added 2003

A N T E L O P E V A L L E Y A r E A O V E r V I E W

Area Is Developing As A DestinationFor Regional Economic GrowthRising Importance Evident From Following

Forms o Growth Since 2000:

Area Population 2.78% Annually

12,620 Per Year

243 New Residents Move In Each Week

Area Households 2.86% Annually

4,170 Per Year

80 New Households Arrive Each Week

Resident Workers 1.56% Annually2,710 Per Year

52 Additional Residents Join Workorce Each Week

Local Workers 1.78% Annually

2,040 Per Year

39 New Local Jobs Go To Residents Each Week


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Antelope Valley Hosts Sizeable Pool O High-Quality Workers Resident workorce eceeds 184,000 workers (actively working)

Adult labor orce eceeds 195,000 workers (working or seeking work)

Potential labor orce can readily eceed 238,000 workers through greater

employment o adult students and homemakers

Resident Workorce Is Well-Educated Share o workers with college education higher than LA County

40% o ull-time workers have college education

33% o adults moving to the area within the last 4 years are college educated

Household Residents Are Motivated To WorkTo Extent Jobs Are Available

1.13 adults per household currently work (payroll and sel-employed workers)

The ratio wage-earner residents per household (0.97) eceeds same ratio

describing Kern County (0.86) or The Inland Empire (0.90)

Long Job Commutes Still Required O Many Resident Workers Share o workers that must travel to jobs outside o Antelope Valley

has fuctuated between 32% and 34% o all workers or past 7 years

61,600 resident workers must travel an average o 1-hour each way tojobs outside the Antelope Valley region work commuters

Local Job Opportunities Highly Desired By Work Commuters 65% o resident workers that travel 60 minutes or longer to work are very likely

to change jobs to reduce daily commute

Many New Local Job Opportunities Can Be ProvidedAt Prevailing Local Wages

Roughly one-third o all work commuters report lower annual earnings than the

average ($44,630 pear year) describing local workers Antelope Valley has a good mi o local jobs at all earning levels but more

rapid epansion needed to reduce workorce commuting

Targeting Work Commuters And Associated IndustriesRemains A Challenge

8 o the top 10 commuter industries account or 38% o commuters

8 o the top 10 city destinations account or 20% o commuters

L A b O r M A r k E T H I G H L I G H T S A N d C H A L L E N G E S


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H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E

January 007 Estimate:Population Base Totals Nearly

506,400 People

Residents Occupy

162,770 Households

Nearly 60% o Households Live In

City o Palmdale

City o Lancaster

Recent Infu Particularly Evident In Palmdale And East Kern County Communities

TIME LIVING IN AREA

ANTELOPE

VALLEY

CITY OF

LANCASTER

CITY OF

PALMDALE

UNINCORP.

L.A. CO.

EASTERN

KERN CO.

Less Than 4.0 Years 16.8% 14.0% 18.0% 13.3% 20.7%

4.0 to 6.9 Years 11.4% 5.7% 17.0% 10.7% 12.0%

7.0 to 14.9 Years 18.4% 19.0% 21.7% 17.3% 14.7%

15 Years & Longer 53.5% 61.3% 43.3% 58.7% 52.7%

44% rom other Areas o LA County

3% rom other Areas o Kern County

25% rom other Areas o Caliornia

28% rom Out o State

Recent Inux o People Moving to Region ReducingAverage Time Households Report Living In Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 2000 2003 2007

Years Living in anteLope vaLLeY area

AVERAG

EYEARS

Lancaster

29%

Palmdale

30%

Unincorp. LA Co17%

E Kern Co24%


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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7+

2.99 Persons Per Household Essentially The Same As Los Angeles CountyFewer 1-Person Households But Greater Share O Households With 2 to 4 Persons

3.03 Per Household City o Lancaster

3.31 Per Household City o Palmdale

2.88 Per Household Los Angeles County Area

2.65 Per Household Eastern Kern County Area

Average Household Size Varies By Geographic Sub-Area:

Children Under 18 Years o Age Comprise 29% o The Resident Population

Seniors 65+ Years o Age Represent 13% o The Areas Population

Children Under 18 Years o Age Live In 41% o Area Households

17% o Area Households Have Children Who Are All Younger Than 12

Seniors 65+ Years o Age Live In 22% o Area Households

17% o Area Households Are Occupied Eclusively By Seniors

Educational Achievement O Residents Continues To RiseEDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT 1997 2000 2003 2007

High School or Less 41% 42% 37% 36%

Post High-School Training 36% 35% 40% 33%

College/Graduate Degree 23% 23% 23% 31%

.% O Adults Arriving Within Last Years Have College Or Graduate Degree


Distribution of househoLD bY size

PER

CENTOFTOTAL

PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD

Los Angeles County

Antelope Valley


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Average Annual Income O Antelope Valley Households Is Estimated At $65,600About 6% Below Overall Average For Los Angeles County o $69,800

The Distribution o Household Income Compares Favorably To Los Angeles County

Signicantly Fewer Low-Income Households

Strong Representation In The $50,000 to $150,000 Income Ranges

Household Income Varies by Select Household Groups in Antelope Valley

ALL

HOUSEHOLDS

IN AREA

4+ YRS

IN AREA

15+ YRS HOMEOWNER RENTER

Average Household Income $65,600 $67,900 $69,200 $72,200 $38,100

Share o Area Households 100.0% 16.8% 53.5% 80.6% 19.4%

Income Distribution O Newer Households SuggestsHigh Skills And Work Participation


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under$20,000

$20,000-$30,000

$30,000-$40,000

$40,000-$50,000

$50,000-$75,000

$75,000-$100,000

$100,000-$150,000

$150,000or More

househoLD income Distribution

HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Los Angeles County

Antelope Valley

PERCEN

TOFTOTAL

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under

$20,000

$20,000-

$30,000

$30,000-

$40,000

$40,000-

$50,000

$50,000-

$75,000

$75,000-

$100,000

$100,000-

$150,000

$150,000

or More

anteLope vaLLeY househoLD income Distribution

HOUSEHOLD INCOME

PER

CENTOFTOTAL

All Antelope Valley Households

In Areas Less Than 4 Years

Homeowner Households


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Prospect O Homeownership an Important FactorDriving Antelope Valley Growth80.6% Homeownership Greatly Eceeds National Average O 67.5%

Large Share O Homeowner Households Have Paid O Their Mortgage1 out o 3 Homebuyers Living In Area 15+ Years

1 out o 5 Homebuyers Living in Area less than 4 Years

The Median Price O Housing Has Increased In Antelope Valley And

Throughout The Los Angeles County Metro Region

HOUSING VALUE REFERENCE LOS ANGELES LANCASTER PALMDALE KERN CO.

Median Price Increase 2003-07 70% 100% 71% 95%

Median Sale Price July 2007 $550,000 $325,000 $345,000 $257,500

Median Price % o LA County 100% 59% 63% 47%

Despite Recent Price Increases, Housing In Antelope Valley Remains A Good Long-Term Value

And Provides An Aordable Living Environment For Working Families

HOUSEHOLD GROUP

AVG. ANNUAL

INCOME

AVG. MORTGAGE PAYMENT PAYMENT AS

% OF INCOMEMONTHLY ANNUAL

All Homeowner Households $72,200 $1,390 $16,710 23%

Living in Area Under 4 Years $67,900 $1,860 $22,360 33%

Living in Area 15+ Years $69,200 $1,220 $14,620 21%

Average Mortgage Payments Reported by Area Households Reect a Manageable Living Expense,

Even or Recent Arrivals to The Antelope Valley Region


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Under$1,000

$1,000-$1,399

$1,400-$1,799

$1,800-$2,199

$2,200-$2,599

$2,600-$2,999

$3,000or More

MortgagePaid Off

mortgage paYment bY tenure in area

MONTHLY PAYMENT

SHA

REOFTOTAL All Homeowner Households

In Area Less than 4 Years

In Area 15+ Years


9/32GAVEA

Householders Generally Remain Positive About CurrentLiestyle Conditions In The Antelope Valley Area

Recent Malaise In Housing Industry And Related Economic News IsContributing To Interim Reservations Compared To Long-Term Sentiment


0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0

Local Job Opportunities 2.17

Local School System 2.66

Community Services 2.98

Housing Affordability 2.71

satisfaction with LifestYLe conDitions

SATISFACTION SCOREVery Dissatised Very Satised

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

JobOpportunities

Schools CommunityServices

HousingAffordability

LifestYLe attituDes

SHARESATISFIED

2007 Sentiment

Long Term Sentiment


10/320 | GAVEA


11/32GAVEA

Excluding Adults Out o Work Over Year -Eective Unemployment Rate is .%

L A b O r F O r C E P r O F I L E

Part-time(20-39 hours)

9.8%

Part-time

(20+ hours)5.2%

UnemployedLabor Force

5.9%

Full-time(40+ hours)

79.2%

Less Than1 Month

13.9%

Between1 & 3 Months

9.2%

Between3 & 6 Months

5.0%

Between6 & 12 Months

8.0%

Over 1Year Ago

63.9%

About 55% o Area Adults Indicate They AreCurrently Working or Still Actively Seeking Work

2007 ADULT LABOR FORCE - 195,900

Adults Who Are Unemployed Include Two Specifc Groups:Unemployed Less Than 1 Year - Actively Seeking WorkUnemployed More Than 1 Year - Disabled/ExtenuatingCircumstances

ADULTS CURRENTLY NOT WORKING -TIME SINCE LAST EMPLOYED

45% O All Adults Are Not Part o the Current Labor

Force or Various Reasons

REASONS ADULTS NOT IN LABOR FORCE

Disabled/Etc.

14.5%

Homemaker

13.6%

Student

12.5%

Retired

59.3%

184,400 Adults Are Active Workorce

Participants - Resident WorkorceResident Workorce Equates to 1.13 WorkersPer Household on Average

Antelope Valley Workorce ParticipationCompares Favorably With Other InlandArea Markets

Excluding Sel-Employed Individuals, ResidentWorkorce Still Compares Well at 0.97 PayrollWorkers Per Household

ACTIVE RESIDENT WORKFORCE - 184,400

WorkFull-time

84%

WorkPart-time

16%

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Antelope

Valley

LA County Kern

County

Inland

Empire

1.131.21

0.86 0.90

workers per househoLD - JanuarY 2007


12/32 | GAVEA

Resident Workorce Has Diverse Range O Industry Experience

54% o Workorce has Specialized Experience in Services or Manuacturing

75% o Service Sector Experience Involves Population-Serving Activities such as:

Consumer, Education and Healthcare Services

75% o Manuacturing Sector Experience Involves Hi-Tech Production & Assembly

W O r k F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S

Services

42%

Military

3%

Govt.

11%

AG/Mine/Util.

4%

Construction

8%

Manuacturing

12%

Trans/Freight

2%

Telcom-Inotech

3%

Whsle Trade

1%

Retail Trade

7%

Fin./Ins./RE

7%

Education

27%

Ent./Amuse.

3%

Health

20%

Consumer

28%

Eng./Legal

14%

Bus./Comp.

8%

Aerospace

55%

Other Mg.Products

25%

Computer-Electronics

16%

Biomedical

4%

workforce service experience workforce manufacturing experience

inDustrY sectors empLoYing resiDent workforce


13/32GAVEA

Resident Workorce Composed O Diverse Work Groups

UNIqUE WORK GROUPSHARE OFWORKERS

ESTIMATEDPOOL

WORKFULL-TIME

WORKPART-TIME

All Adult Workers 100% 184,400 84% 16%

Payroll Employees 86% 157,700 86% 14%

Sel-Employed 14% 26,700 71% 29%

Working Age Adults - Age 65 95% 176,100 85% 15%

Working Seniors - Age 65+ 5% 8,300 61% 39%

Work-Within Antelope Valley 67% 122,800 80% 20%

Work-Outside Antelope Valley 33% 61,600 92% 8%

12.5% o Senior Age Residents are Active Workorce Participants

33% o Resident Workers Travel to Jobs Outside the Antelope Valley Region

Residents that Travel to Jobs Outside the Region are Work Commuters

% o Resident Workorce Hold Jobs ThatRequire Complex Disciplinary Skills

Proessional/Specialized - Physicians, Chemists, Engineers, Etc.

Executive/Management - Directors, Plant/Facility Managers, Etc.


Forest/Ag/Other

2%

Service

17%

Const./Mining

8%

Transport/Mat.Handling

4%

Mech./Repair/Prod./Assmbly

6%

Pro./Spec./Tech

30%

Eec./Dir./Fin.

13%

Sales

11%

Admin. Support

9%

occupation skiLLs of workforce


14/32 | GAVEA

Regardless O Job Location, Driving Alone Is Primary Method Used To Get To WorkMETHOD OF TRAVEL ALL WORKERS LOCAL WORKERS WORK COMMUTERS

Drive Alone 85% 89% 78%

Ride Share 10% 7% 15%

Train/Bus/Etc. 3% 1% 7%

Bike/Walk/Etc. 2% 3% 1%

Educational Achievement O Resident Workers Is Very Good

LEVEL OF EDUCATION

ALL ADULT

RESIDENTS

ALL

WORKERS

FULL-TIME

WORKERS

PART-TIME

WORKERS

High School or Less 36% 31% 29% 40%

Bus. School/Some College 33% 31% 31% 35%

College Graduate 20% 23% 24% 21%

Post-Grad Training/Degree 11% 15% 16% 4%

0% O Full-Time And % o Part-Time WorkersHave A College Degree EducationResident Workorce has Superior Education Compared to LA County Workorce:

Share o Antelope Valley Adults with College Education Exceeds LA County (31% Versus 29%)

Share with Some College or Technical Training also Exceeds LA County (33% Versus 25%)

Average Worker Earnings Varies Depending On Employment And Commute Status

UNIqUE WORK GROUP

RESIDENT WORKER EARNINGS

AVERAGE % OF OVERALL

All Workers Combined $46,930 100%

Full-Time Workers $50,820 108%

Part-Time Workers $26,410 56%

Sel-Employed $50,890 108%

Payroll Employee $46,290 99%

Local Workers-Inside AV $44,630 95%

Commuters-Outside AV $52,050 111%

Job Travel - 30 minutes $43,760 93%

Job Travel - 60 minutes $52,810 113%



15/32GAVEA

Variations In Worker Earnings Also Aected By Full-Time/Part-Time Status

EMPLOYMENT STATUSAG/UTIL/

CONST MFGTELECOMTRADES FIRE/SVCS EDUC GOVT OVERALL

Full-Time 86% 89% 88% 80% 80% 91% 84%

Part-Time 14% 11% 12% 20% 20% 9% 16%

Signicant Dierences Distinguish Average EarningsPotential By Industry Group

Over 0% O Part-Time Workers Earn Less Than $0,000 Per YearNearly 0% O Full-Time Workers Earn More Than $0,000 Per Year

L A b O r F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Agric./Util./Const.

Govt.Educ.Fire/Svcs.Telecom/Trades

MFG Overall

$51,900

$58,400

$44,400$40,200

$46,300

$57,000

$46,900

inDiviDuaL worker earnings bY work status

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


16/32 | GAVEA

Good Jobs Do Exist In Antelope Valley At All Earning Levels

Large Share O Residents That Work In Antelope Valley For Less Than$0,000 Per Year Are Employed Part-time

L A b O r F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S


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Nearly ,00 Work Commuters Travel Less Than 0 Minutes To WorkEach Day But More Than 0,00 Travel For Much Longer Periods

Over 0% O Work Commuters Travel At Least Hour To Reach Their Job

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

30 Min or Less 76 to 9061 to 7546 to 6031 to 45 Over 90

86%

work traveL time comparison

SHAREOFWORKGROUP

Work Outside Antelope Valley

Work Within Antelope Valley

TRAVEL TIME TO WORK (MIN)

WOr k F O r C E C OM M u T E r S

Work Commuters Represent One-Third O All WorkersLiving In Antelope Valley

Every Day 61,600 Work Commuters

Travel 60 Minutes on Average to

Jobs Outside o Antelope Valley

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

All Workers 32

Part-time Workers

Full-time Workers

Work Outside A.V.

Work Within A.V.

Reside in E. Kern

Reside in Lancaster or Palmdale

20

35

60

19

25

33

resiDent workers - average traveL time to work

MINUTES TRAVELED ONE-WAY


19/32GAVEA

Work Commuters Leave Antelope Valley For Jobs In The Following AreasWORK COMMUTER

SUB-AREA LOCATION

SHARE OF

ALL WORKERS

SHARE OF

COMMUTERS

ESTIMATED

POOL

Santa Clarita Valley 4.3% 12.9% 7,900

Central-Western Kern County 0.5% 1.6% 1,000

San Fernando Valley 9.1% 27.2% 16,800

Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 3.0% 9.0% 5,600

Downtown LA Region 9.4% 28.2% 17,400

Greater Metro Region 4.0% 12.0% 7,400

No Fied Location 3.0% 9.0% 5,600

TOTALS 33.4% 100.0% 61,600

About 22% o Work Commuters Car-Pool or Take the Train to Work. Even so, Work Commuter Trafc is Estimated

to Generate More Than 50,000 One-Way Vehicle Trips Every Day on the State Route 14 Freeway

About 45% O All Work Commuters Travel To 10 Specic City Destinations

The Largest Single Share O Work Commuter Travel Is To JobLocations In The Northern Section O The City o Los AngelesOutside The Central Downtown Area

WOr k F Or C E C OM M u T E r S

WORK COMMUTER

CITY DESTINATION

SUB-AREA

LOCATION

SHARE OF ALL

WORKERS

SHARE OF

COMMUTERS

ESTIMATED

POOL

Los Angeles Metro Downtown LA Region 7.0% 21.0% 12,920

Valencia Santa Clarita Valley 1.8% 5.4% 3,320

Santa Clarita Santa Clarita Valley 1.4% 4.3% 2,660

Van Nuys San Fernando Valley 1.3% 3.9% 2,370

SF Valley Area San Fernando Valley 1.3% 3.8% 2,370

Burbank Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 1.2% 3.5% 2,160

Downtown L.A. Downtown LA Region 1.1% 3.2% 1,950

Hollywood Downtown LA Region 0.9% 2.8% 1,740

Pasadena Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 0.9% 2.8% 1,700

Pacoima San Fernando Valley 0.9% 2.8% 1,700

TOTALS 15.0% 45.0% 27,750


20/320 | GAVEA


An Inde Rating O Drawing Strength By Sub-Area Provides An Indication Where A Relatively Large Share

O Work Commuter Industry Eperience Is Going Each Day

The Santa Clarita Valley Draws 12.9% O All Commuters, But 1.2 Times That Share O Commuting Educators,

And 1.4 Times That Share O Commuting Government Workers

COMMUTER CONCENTRATION INDEx BY INDUSTRY GROUP

WORK COMMUTER

SUB-AREA LOCATION

ESTIMATED

POOL

SHARE OF

COMMUTERS

AG/MIN

UTIL/CONST MFG

TEL/INFO

TRADES

FIRE/

SVCS EDUC GOVTSanta Clarita 7,900 12.9% 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4

Central-Western Kern County 1,000 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 6.0

San Fernando Valley 16,800 27.2% 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.7 0.4

Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 5,600 9.0% 0.9 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.0 0.8

Downtown LA Region 17,400 28.2% 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.5

Greater Metro Region 7,400 12.0% 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0

No Fied Location 5,600 9.0% 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0

All Work Commuters 61,600 33.4% 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0

Share O All Workers n/a n/a 11.9% 12.2% 13.3% 37.9% 11.0% 13.6%

10 Industry Sub-Sectors Employ The Highest Share O Work Commuters:

HEAVY COMMUTER INDUSTRIES

SHARE OF ALL

WORKERS

SHARE OF

COMMUTE

SHARE OF

COMMUTERS

ESTIMATED

POOL

Ino Technology & Telecom 2.9% 68% 8.8% 5,400

Waste Management 0.8% 67% 2.4% 1,500

Legal Services 2.4% 65% 7.1% 4,400

Trucking/Transports Warehousing 2.4% 62% 7.3% 4,500

Entertain/Recreation 1.4% 55% 4.1% 2,500

Utilities-Eclud Telecom 1.4% 50% 4.2% 2,600

Wholesale Trade 0.8% 46% 2.4% 1,500

Construction 8.0% 45% 24.0% 14,800

Civic & Fraternal Services 1.1% 43% 3.4% 2,100

Manuacturing - Ecluding Hi-Tech 3.0% 43% 9.1% 5,600

24.3% 72.9% 44,900


21/32GAVEA

Higher Earnings Is One Reason Nearly 32,000 Residents Commute More Than One Hour Each DayTo Jobs Outside The Antelope Valley Region

The Large Employment Complex In The Los Angeles MetropolitanArea Represents Increased Opportunity For Higher Pay But Exactly How Much Higher?

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Under $40K

1.30

$40K-$59.9K $60K-$79.9K $80K Plus

earnings propensitY bY traveL time to work

PROPENSITYVS.ALLWORKERS

WORKER EARNINGS RANGE

30 Min or Less

31 to 60 Min

Over 60 Min

On Average, Work Commuters Report 17% Higher Earnings Than Local Workers

WOr k F Or C E C OM M u T E r S

$30,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

All Workers 61 to 9031 to 6016 to 30 Over 90Under 15

$46,930$42,780

$45,530

$51,060$53,260 $52,350

average worker earnings bY traveL time to Job

AVERAGEANNUAL

EARNINGS

TRAVEL TIME (MIN)


22/32 | GAVEA

The Largest Local Employment Centers Representing Job Replacement Opportunities For Work

Commuters Are In The Following Antelope Valley Communities:

LOCAL WOKER CITYDESTINATION

SUB-AREALOCATION

SHARE OF ALLWORKERS

SHARE OF LOCALWORKERS

ESTIMATEDPOOL

Lancaster Antelope Valley-South 23.6% 35.5% 43,550

Palmdale Antelope Valley-South 21.5% 32.3% 36,630

Ridgecrest Antelope Valley-North 4.8% 7.2% 8,890

Edwards AFB Antelope Valley-North 4.0% 6.0% 7,360

Tehachapi Antelope Valley-North 3.5% 5.2% 6,400

Mojave Antelope Valley-North 1.7% 2.5% 3,090Littlerock Antelope Valley-South 1.4% 2.1% 2,580

TOTALS 60.5% 90.8% 111,510

Over One-Third O All Work Commuters That Travel At Least 30 Minutes

To Work Each Day Report Less Than $40,000 Per Year In Earnings

The Share O Workers That Earn Between $60,000 And $80,000 Per Year

Is Essentially The Same Regardless How Long The Travel Time To Work


A Long Work Commute Does Not Automatically Equate To Higher Earnings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under $40K $40K-$59.9K $60K-$79.9K $80K Plus

worker earnings bY traveL time to work

SHA

REOFTRAVELGROUP

WORKER EARNINGS RANGE

30 Min or Less

31 to 60 Min

Over 60 Min


23/32GAVEA

Overall Workorce Attitudes DescribingSatisaction With Work

Satisaction With Pay

Satisaction With Job Commute

Remain Very Positive And Consistent With Long-Term Sentiment O Past 0 Years

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Type of Job Job Earnings Job Commute

worker satisfaction

SHARESATISFIED

2007 Sentiment Long term Sentiment

Worker Attitudes Grow Increasingly NegativeWith Time Spent Traveling To Work

More Than 70% O Workers Traveling 60 Minutes Or Longer To Work Are

Somewhat Dissatisfed Or Very Dissatisfed With The Work Commute

45 Minutes Is The Estimated Break-Point Where Commute Attitudes Rapidly Decline

WOr k F Or C E AT T I T u dE S

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Less Than 30 More Than 60 More Than 9031 to 60

Job commute attituDe bY traveL time

P

ERCENTOFSHARE


Satised

Dissatised


24/32 | GAVEA

WOr k F O r C E AT T I T u dE S

Overall % O Workers Are Very Likely To Change

Jobs For Work Closer To HomeShare O Workers Very Likely To Change Jobs Increases With Travel Time To Work

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

15 or Less 61 to 9031 to 60 Over 9016 to 30

workers verY LikeLY to change Job bY traveL time to work

PERCENTOFSHARE


Job Travel Satisaction Strongly Infuences Attitude Expressed AboutThe Likelihood O Changing Jobs For Similar Work Closer To Home

Over 70% O Workers Very Dissatisfed

With The Work Commute Indicate They

Would Be Very Likely To Change Jobs

For Work Requiring A Shorter Commute

Very Unlikely0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Very Likely

Job change anD Job commute attituDes

PERC

ENTOFSHARE

LIKELIHOOD OF JOB CHANGE

Very Satised - Commute Very Dissatised - Commute


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Share O Workers Very Likely To Change Jobs Is HighestAmong Commuters

Occupations With High Share O Workers Very LikelyTo Change Jobs Include

WORK COMMUTERS SHARE OF ALL WORKERS SHARE VERY LIKELY ESTIMATED POOL

Travel 31 to 60 Minutes 10% 52% 9,360

Travel 61 to 90 Minutes 9% 60% 9,430

Travel Over 90 Minutes 8% 74% 10,710

Very Likely To Change Jobs 26% 61% 29,500

WORK OCCUPATION SHARE OF ALL WORKERS

SHARE JOB CHANGE

VERY LIKELY ESTIMATED POOL

Transport/Material Handling 2.2% 49% 2,000

Construction 3.6% 43% 2,900

Sales 5.7% 42% 4,400

Mechanical & Repair 1.8% 37% 1,200

Very Likely To Change Jobs 13.4% 43% 10,500

Roughly Out O 0 Workers Travels Between0 And 0 Minutes To Work Each DayNearly The Same Proportion O Workers Travels Longer Than 90 Minutes Every Day

WOr k F Or C E AT T I T u dE S


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Antelope Valley Has Consistently Attracted A Signicant ShareO Household Growth Driven By Economic Expansion ThroughoutThe Los Angeles Metro Area Cities O Palmdale And Lancaster LeadThe Area In Attracting Growth

REFERENCE PERIOD FORNEW HOME PERMIT ACTIVITY

SINGLE-FAMILY & MULTI FAMILY UNITS SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED UNITS ONLY

LA COUNTY PALMDALE LANCASTER LA COUNTY PALMDALE LANCASTER

2000 16,968 1,072 6.3% 8,372 940 11.2%

2001 18,294 1,583 8.7% 8,308 1,389 16.7%

2002 16,454 1,415 8.6% 8,280 1,415 17.1%

2003 20,903 1,929 9.2% 10,326 1,929 18.7%

2004 26,529 3,475 13.1% 12,763 3,106 24.3%

2005 23,498 4,411 18.8% 12,523 4,333 34.6%

2006 25,202 3,040 12.1% 9,942 2,857 28.7%

January - July 2007 11,918 1,446 12.1% 4,865 1,248 25.7%

Palmdale And Lancaster Account For Less Than 3% O Total Population In The Los Angeles Metro Area But Have

Consistently Captured 25% O New Single-Family Unit Development Activity Since 2004

Credit Lending Debacle Has Impacted Sales Activity In All So-Cal Housing Markets

NEW SALE-RESALE

ACTIVITY PERIOD

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

LOS ANGELES

COUNTY

KERN

COUNTY EST.

INLAND

EMPIRE

SALES

VOLUME

INDEx

VOLUME

2000 (Inde Period) 330,800 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

2001 323,200 0.98 0.97 1.21 1.04

2002 360,300 1.09 1.08 1.18 1.21

2003 395,200 1.19 1.16 1.32 1.39

2004 415,100 1.25 1.17 1.47 1.61

2005 411,000 1.24 1.13 1.59 1.67

2006 319,700 0.97 0.93 1.40 1.32

2007 Proj. 240,100 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.83

The Antelope Valley Housing Market Is Not ImmuneTo Widespread Market Trends

u r b A N E C O N O M I C I N d I C A T O r S


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More Importantly, Antelope Valley Remains A Value-Based Market And Will Continue

To Represent An Attractive Option For Southern Caliornia Households Seeking

Home Ownership Within Economic Reach O Their Earnings Potential

HOUSING VALUE REFERENCE

SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA

LOS ANGELES

COUNTY

KERN

COUNTY LANCASTER PALMDALE

Median Sales Price-July 2007 $505,000 $550,000 $257,500 $325,000 $345,000

As Share o So Cal Median 100% 109% 51% 64% 68%

Resident Population Growth Has Signicantly BolsteredSales Perormance O Area Business And Retailer AbilityTo Serve Consumer Demand Throughout Region

Antelope Valley Is Eectively Served By The Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Comple

2005 Taable Retail Perormance Eceeds $2.8 Billion In Annual Sales

Retail Sales Growing 3.6 Times Faster Than 2000-05 Population Growth

The Net Closest retail Alternatives Located In Bakerseld And Santa Clarita


The Rapid Run-Up In Pricing Since 2003 Is Invariably Leading To Price AdjustmentsMEDIAN SALES PRICE AND

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE

SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA

LOS ANGELES

COUNTY

KERN

COUNTY LANCASTER PALMDALE

July 2003 $328,000 $323,750 $132,250 $162,500 $201,750

July 2004 $384,000 $405,000 $170,500 $226,750 $275,000

July 2005 $451,000 $487,000 $236,500 $291,000 $325,000

July 2006 $487,000 $524,000 $285,000 $327,500 $376,500

July 2007 $505,000 $550,000 $257,500 $325,000 $345,000

July 2003-2004 17.1% 25.1% 28.9% 39.5% 36.3%

July 2004-2005 17.4% 20.2% 38.7% 28.3% 18.2%

July 2005-2006 8.0% 7.6% 20.5% 12.5% 15.8%

July 2006-2007 3.7% 5.0% - 9.6% - 0.8% - 8.4%

Total Price Increase 2003-2007 54% 70% 95% 100% 71%

Market Value Growth Remains ImpressiveEven With Near-Term Price Adjustments


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Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Complex ReversingHistoric Leakage O Sales Potential

Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Complex Now Attracting Signicant SalesSupport From All Populated Areas O Antelope Valley Region

Household Growth In Antelope Valley RepresentsA Signicant Economic Stimulus

Nearly 2,150 Additional Households Per Year Have Moved To Area Since 2005

Average Income O Households Living In area Less Than 4 Years Is $67,900

For Every $1.00 Spent, New Households Generate $1.28 In Economic Activity

(Excluding Economic Activity Associated With New Home Construction To Host Growth O Households)

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

20052003200220012000 2004

-12%

-8%

-4%

4%

14%17%

paLmDaLe-Lancaster retaiL saLes performance

INDExEDG

ROWTHSINCE2000

Antelope Valley Population Growth

Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Sales Growth

Palmdale-Lancaster Population Growth

City Infow-Outfow o Retail Support



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A Large Share O Labor Income Generated By New Household Growth Refects

Retail And Service Activities In Direct Support O Household Ependitures

RANK INDUSTRY SECTOR ACTIVITY

LABOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION

DISTRIBUTION OF

DIRECT

DIRECT AS % OF

TOTAL

DISTRIBUTION OF

TOTAL

1 Medical Practices (Ambulatory) 13% 82% 16%

2 Hospitals 10% 80% 12%

3 Eating & Drinking 8% 81% 9%

4 Misc. & Specialty Retail 6% 83% 7%

5 Food Stores 5% 83% 6%

6 Auto Dealers & Service Stations 5% 82% 6%

7 Nursing and Protective Care 5% 91% 6%

8 General Merchandise Stores 3% 82% 3%

9 Insurance Carriers 3% 78% 3%

10 Banking 2% 67% 3%

Share O Total Labor Income 60% 81% 73%

Labor Income Generated ($000s) $14,976 66% $22,790

Eective Employment Generated 323 69% 470

Labor Income Generated Per Job $46,400 96% $48,500


LEVEL OF

ECONOMIC EFFECT

TOTAL OUTPUT

($000s) EMPLOYMENT LABOR INCOME

VALUE ADDED

($000s)

Total Direct $67,258 323 $14,976 $26,029

Total Indirect 9,053 63 3,727 5,428

Total Induced 10,669 85 4,087 6,850

Total $86,980 470 $22,790 $38,307

Near-Term Household Growth Epected To Slow As Result O Housing Decline But Remains An Important

Stimulus For Economic Epansion O Antelope Valley

IMPLAN Simulations Suggest Nearly $7.0 Million InLocal Economic Activity Is Generated For Every ,000Additional Households Moving To Antelope Valley


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N O T E S


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2007 GAVEA Labor Report

Documents

Transcript of 2007 GAVEA Labor Report