141013 Valu Trader

download 141013 Valu Trader

of 16

Transcript of 141013 Valu Trader

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    1/16

    The ValuTrader Newsletter is based on ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier'sproprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his technical analysis expertise with ValuEngine'sproprietary valuation, forecast, and ratings data for more than 5000 equities trading on US markets tocome up with a portfolio tailored to current market conditions. With ValuTrader, subscribers accessSuttmeier's "Buy and Trade" strategy with a portfolio designed to function well in both up and downmarkets. Suttmeier is famous for correctly calling the tech-stock bottom in 2002-2003, predicting thecurrent housing/credit crisis back in 2005, and calling the most recent market bottom on March 6,2009! He is a frequent guest in the financial media including Yahoo Finance Breakout. WithValuTrader, subscribers utilize Suttmeier as their own personal portfolio manager!

    The ValuTrader Portfolio contains approximately 20 stocks and ETFs--which can be a mix of bothlong and short positions. ValuTrader implements Suttmeier's Buy and Trade strategy and utilizesgood until canceled (GTC) orders to adjust positions based on Suttmeier's own carefully calculatedaction prices for each individual holding. You can find out more in the How to Use this Portfoliosection near the end of the document.

    Check out Suttmeier's investment columns at www.TheStreet.com.

    October 13, 2014 Current Analysis

    Last week ended with the September 19 all-time or multiyear highs confirmed as cycle highs for the five majoraverages. In addition on Friday, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq and Dow Transports joined the Russell 2000 belowtheir 200-day simple moving averages.The S&P 500 closed just a point above its 200-day SMA at 1905.2 with Dow Transports above its 200-day SMAat 7880. The other 200-day simple moving averages are 16593 Dow Industrials, 4300 Nasdaq and 1149.64Russell 2000.

    All five major equity averages are below their five-week modified moving averages at 16928 Dow Industrials,1966.0 on S&P 500, 4461 Nasdaq, 8344 Dow Transports and 1122.73 Russell 2000 with declining 12x3x3weekly slow stochastics. This is a full-fledged sell signal.From their highs the Russell 2000 and PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) ended the week in correction

    territory down13.2% and 14.9%, respectively.The all-time or multiyear intraday highs are 17350.84 (Sept. 19) Dow Industrials, 2019.26 (Sept. 19) S&P 500,4610.57 (Sept 19) Nasdaq, 8714.94 (Sept. 19) Dow Transports, and 1213.55 (July 1) Russell 2000).This weeks risky levels are 17274 Dow Industrials, 1991.3 S&P 500, 4510 Nasdaq, 8487 Dow Transports and1112.36 on the Russell 2000.Monthly and quarterly risky levels are 17779 and 18045 Dow Industrials, 2079.2 and 2094.6 S&P 500, 4609and 4713 Nasdaq, 8790 and 9418 Dow Transports and 1159.82 and 1292.59 on Russell 2000.Semiannual and annual value levels will remain at 16301, 14835 and 13437 Dow Industrials, 1789.3, 1539.1and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3972, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 7423, 6249 and 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and879.39 Russell 2000.

    Semiannual risky levels remain at 18522 Dow Industrials, 2080.3 S&P 500, 4642 Nasdaq and 1285.37 on theRussell 2000. Semiannual pivots remain at 8447 Dow Transports and 1139.81 Russell 2000.Our allocation to the long side increased to 27.5% from 25% with 22 long positions in 13 stocks. On Oct. 7 weadded to the position in Autonatio n (AN) on weakness to $51.67. On Oct. 8 we added to the position in Deere(DE) on weakness to $79.50. Our allocation to the short side remains at 35% with 8 shorts in DIA, 11 shorts inQQQ and 9 shorts in SPY.ValuTrader Watch Lis t Given market volatility th ere is no Watch Li st this week.

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    2/16

    Market Overview

    Summary of VE Stock Universe Stocks Undervalued 58.07%

    Stocks Overvalued 41.93%

    Stocks Undervalued by 20% 19.98%

    Stocks Overvalued by 20% 10.52%

    The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded onUS markets. Normal ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically runbetween 35-65%.

    Sector Overview Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn

    P/ERatio

    Aerospace -0.60% -5.25% -6.52% 0.45% undervalued 18.07% 19.59

    Auto-Tires -Trucks -1.73% -7.17% -8.27% 6.25% undervalued -2.00% 15.27

    Basic Materials -1.50% -5.59% -6.28% 13.98% undervalued -6.93% 24.91

    Business Services -1.02% -3.32% -6.24% 1.90% undervalued 8.57% 23.71

    Computer and Technology -3.12% -6.66% -4.23% 0.45% overvalued 4.58% 29.91 Construction -1.35% -4.08% -7.07% 9.27% undervalued 3.41% 22.89

    Consumer Discretionary -1.05% -3.41% -7.85% 2.03% overvalued 4.37% 26.19

    Consumer Staples -0.48% -1.27% -0.82% 5.53% overvalued 9.77% 23.12

    Finance -0.59% -1.71% 0.20% 2.12% overvalued 5.81% 16.99

    Industrial Products -1.50% -4.96% -9.04% 5.19% undervalued 1.45% 21.64

    Medical -0.98% -2.62% 5.64% 2.04% overvalued 13.54% 28.79

    Multi-Sector Conglomerates -0.94% -4.26% -4.73% 3.05% overvalued 3.43% 20.51

    Oils-Energy -2.79% -10.65% 2.13% 10.05% undervalued -1.97% 23.76

    Retail-Wholesale -0.73% -2.99% -9.56% 2.00% overvalued -2.27% 23.10

    Transportation -1.53% -5.50% -0.76% 0.13% overvalued 9.96% 18.17

    Utilities -1.14% -3.37% 1.46% 0.95% overvalued 7.01% 20.41

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    3/16

    Current Long PortfolioTicker Company Name EntryDate

    EntryPrice

    CurrentPrice G/L

    ValueLevel Pivot

    RiskyLevel

    LONGS

    AN AUTONATION 22-Sep-14 $50.52 $51.32 1.6% 38.31 A 51.17 W 53.99 Q

    7-Oct-14 $51.67 $51.32 -0.7%

    CLF CLIFFS NATURAL 12-Jun-14 $13.72 $7.32 -46.6% 7.00 W 12.33 M 13.95 S

    COH COACH 10-Jul-14 $34.28 $34.08 -0.6% none 33.76 M 36.23 W

    CTSH COGNIZANT 15-Sep-14 $44.36 $43.31 -2.4% 42.03 A 44.91 W 47.30 M

    DE DEERE & CO 14-Aug-14 $84.33 $80.98 -4.0% none 80.57 W 89.29 M

    8-Oct-14 $79.50 $80.98 1.9%

    DNR DENBURY RES 9-Sep-14 $16.32 $12.77 -21.8% none 16.86 M 18.64 S

    DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE 17-Sep-14 $38.50 $35.41 -8.0% 32.68 W 33.79 S 43.23 M

    24-Sep-14 $36.87 $35.41 -4.0%

    1-Oct-14 $33.79 $35.41 4.8%

    ESV ENSCO PLC 18-Sep-14 $44.64 $37.22 -16.6% none 38.72 W 49.07 M

    24-Sep-14 $42.77 $37.22 -13.0%

    FLR FLOUR CORP 10-Sep-14 $71.47 $62.88 -12.0% none 65.78 W 72.25 M

    22-Sep-14 $68.36 $62.88 -8.0%

    FMC FMC CORP 18-Sep-14 $61.24 $52.75 -13.9% none 59.69 A 69.76 M

    24-Sep-14 $59.69 $52.75 -11.6%

    JOY JOY GLOBAL 9-Sep-14 $59.57 $49.21 -17.4% none 58.03 Q 64.12 M

    22-Sep-14 $57.50 $48.21 -16.2%

    LEN LENNAR 25-Jul-14 $38.60 $38.45 -0.4% none 39.36 M 41.68 W

    NE NOBLE CORP 18-Sep-14 $24.63 $18.87 -23.4% none 20.39 W 27.73 M

    3-Oct-14 $20.71 $18.87 -8.9%

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    4/16

    Current Short Portfolio

    Ticker Company Name EntryDate EntryPrice CurrentPrice G/L ValueLevel Pivot RiskyLevel

    ETF SHORTS

    DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 22-Jan-13 $136.17 $165.21 -21.3% 162.59 S 172.56 W

    6-Mar-13 $143.01 $165.21 -15.5%

    28-Mar-13 $145.35 $165.21 -13.7%

    9-Apr-13 $146.81 $165.21 -12.5%

    29-Nov-13 $161.47 $165.21 -2.3%

    28-Mar-14 $163.79 $165.21 -0.9%

    17-Apr-14 $164.18 $165.21 -0.6% 18-Aug-14 $168.64 $165.21 2.0%

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 18-Jan-12 $59.37 $94.44 -59.1% 85.91 S 98.40 Q 99.05 W

    5-Mar-13 $68.50 $94.44 -37.9%

    10-Apr-13 $69.54 $94.44 -35.8%

    25-Apr-13 $69.79 $94.44 -35.3%

    29-Apr-13 $70.37 $94.44 -34.2%

    9-Jul-13 $73.00 $94.44 -29.4%

    17-Oct-13 $80.72 $94.44 -17.0%

    27-Nov-13 $85.11 $94.44 -11.0%

    1-Jul-14 $94.98 $94.44 0.6%

    20-Aug-14 $98.77 $94.44 4.4%

    8-Sep-14 $100.33 $94.44 5.9%

    SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS 29-Jan-13 $150.80 $190.54 -26.4% 178.73 S 199.05 W

    14-Mar-13 $156.59 $190.54 -21.7%

    28-Mar-13 $156.78 $190.54 -21.5%

    27-Jun-13 $161.10 $190.54 -18.3%

    18-Oct-13 $174.10 $190.54 -9.4%

    13-Feb-14 $182.98 $190.54 -4.1%

    16-Apr-14 $185.09 $190.54 -2.9%

    3-Jul-14 $197.75 $190.54 3.6%

    15-Aug-14 $196.57 $190.54 3.1%

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    5/16

    Ticker Company Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)EngineRating

    Last 12-Mon Retn

    (%)

    Forecast1-Yr

    Retn(%)

    P/ERatio Sector

    LONGS AN AUTONATION INC $51.32 (10.2) 4 3.3 6.8 15.7 RETAIL-WHOLESALE

    CLF CLIFFS NATURAL $7.32 (45.8) 4 (64.6) 8.9 11.6 BASIC MATERIALS

    COH COACH INC $34.08 (21.7) 4 (37.1) 6.3 12.3 CONSUMER DISCRETCTSH COGNIZANT TECH $43.31 (20.8) 4 2.9 7.6 21.0 TECHNOLOGY

    DE DEERE & CO $80.98 (9.7) 4 (2.3) 8.7 9.5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTSDNR DENBURY RES INC $12.77 (31.7) 4 (30.0) 9.2 12.2 OILS-ENERGYDO DIAMOND OFFSHOR $35.41 (27.9) 4 (44.0) 8.4 10.6 OILS-ENERGY

    ESV ENSCO PLC $37.22 (34.2) 5 (32.6) 12.1 6.1 OILS-ENERGYFLR FLUOR CORP-NEW $62.88 (19.4) 4 (12.4) 6.2 15.5 CONSTRUCTIONFMC FMC CORP $52.75 (25.4) 4 (26.4) 7.5 13.3 BASIC MATERIALSJOY JOY GLOBAL INC $49.21 (16.5) 4 (4.3) 7.3 15.4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTSLEN LENNAR CORP -A $38.45 (16.0) 5 13.8 13.4 15.1 CONSTRUCTIONNE NOBLE CORP PLC $18.87 (47.6) 5 (50.3) 12.3 5.7 OILS-ENERGY

    ETF SHORTSDIA DIAMONDS TRUST $165.21

    QQQ NASDAQ-100 SHRS $94.44SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS $190.54

    ValuEngines Valuation and Forecast data are derived from our proprietary quantitative models and consider numerous factors including:firm-specif ic variables like the Long-run EPS growth rate, the Duration of the Busin ess-growth-cycle, the Volatili ty of EPS growth rate, theSystematic or beta risk of the fi rm, the Correlation between the firm's EPS and the int erest rate environ ment, Dividend payout ratio, and Buff erearnings. Calculations also incl ude interest rate-related criteria and technical data such as short and long-term pri ce reversal characteristic s.

    ValuEngine Rating s 5-Engine is a Strong Buy projected t o rally 12% or more over the next t welve months . 4-Engine is a Bu y - projected to r ally 5% to 12% over the next tw elve months. 3-Engine is a Hold - projected to declin e by no more than 5% or to rally no mor e than 5% over the next twelve months . 2-Engine is a Sell - projected to decline 5% to 12% over the next tw elve months. 1-Engine is a Strong Sell - proj ected to declin e 12% or more ov er the next twelve mont hs.

    ValuTrader Watch List No Stocks This WeekUse GTC limit orders to buy weakness to the value levels shown on the list.

    Ticker Name 09/26/14OV /UN VE Last 12 One Year P/E Sector Value Pivot Risk y

    Price Valued Rating Months Return(%) Ratios Level Leve

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    6/16

    Ticker Company Name Business Descripti on Sector

    LONGS

    AN AUTONATION

    AutoNation, Inc. is the one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States. Thecompany owns and operates new vehicle franchises from dealership locations inmajor metropolitan markets in numerous states, predominantly in the Sunbelt states.

    RETAIL-WHOLESALE

    CLF CLIFFS NATURAL

    CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INC, formerly Cleveland-Cliffs Inc, is aninternational mining company, a producer of iron ore pellets in North America and asupplier of metallurgical coal to the global steelmaking industry.

    BASICINDUSTRIES

    COH COACH

    Coach Inc. is a designer, producer and marketer of high-quality, modern, Americanclassic accessories that complement the diverse lifestyles of discerning women andmen.

    CONSUMERDISCRETION

    CTSH COGNIZANT

    Cognizant Technology Solutions delivers high-quality, cost-effective, full life cyclesolutions to complex software development and maintenance problems that

    companies face as they transition to e-business.

    COMPUTERS &

    TECHNOLOGY

    DE DEERE

    Deere & Company is the one world's foremost producers of agriculturalequipment as well as a leading manufacturer of construction, forestry, andcommercial and consumer equipment.

    INDUSTRIALPRODUCTS

    DNR DENBURY RES

    Denbury Resources Inc. is oil and gas company engaged in the exploration,production and development of natural gas properties in the Gulf Coast region locatedin Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama. OILS-ENERGY

    DODIAMOND

    OFFSHOREDiamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. engages principally in the contract drilling of offshoreoil and gas wells. OILS-ENERGY

    ESV ENSCO PLCEnsco International plc, formerly ENSCO International Incorporated, is a provider ofoffshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. OILS-ENERGY

    FLR FLOUR CORP

    Fluor is a FORTUNE 500 company that delivers engineering, procurement,construction, maintenance (EPCM), and project management to governments andclients in diverse industries around the world. CONSTRUCTION

    FMC FMC CORPFMC Corporation is one of the world's leading producers of machinery and chemicalsfor industry and agriculture.

    BASICINDUSTRIALS

    JOY JOY GLOBAL

    Global Inc. is a worldwide leader in manufacturing, servicing and distributingequipment for surface mining through its P&H Mining Equipment division andunderground mining through its Joy Mining Machinery division.

    INDUSTRIALPRODUCTS

    LEN LENNARLennar Corp is one of the nation's leading builders of quality homes for allgenerations, building affordable, move-up and retirement homes. CONSTRUCTION

    NE NOBLE CORP

    Noble Corporation PLC is an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry.The company offers services for drilling and work over activities and undertakesrefurbishment projects for rigs. OILS-ENERGY

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    7/16

    uOverall Allocation Money Amounts

    TOTAL INVESTED $250,000

    CASH REMAINDER $150,000GAIN / LOSS ON CLOSED TRADES $101,672

    MARK TO MARKET ON OPEN POSITIONS $31,616

    TOTAL VALUE $470,056

    Ticker Company Name 1stBuy Price2ndBuy Price

    3rdBuy Price

    4thBuy Price

    Total AmountInvested

    TotalShares

    LONGS

    AN AUTONATION INC 22-Sep $50.52 7-Oct $51.67 $10,000.00 196

    CLF CLIFFS NATURAL 12-Jun $13.72 $5,000.00 364COH COACH 10-Jul $34.28 $5,000.00 146

    CTSH COGNIZANT 15-Sep $44.36 $5,000.00 113

    DE DEERE 14-Aug $84.33 8-Oct $79.50 $10,000.00 122

    DNR DENBURY RES 9-Sep $16.32 $5,000.00 306

    DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE 17-Sep $38.50 24-Sep $36.87 1-Oct $33.79 $15,000.00 414

    ESV ENSCO PLC 18-Sep $44.64 24-Sep $42.77 $10,000.00 229

    FLR FLOUR CORP 10-Sep $71.47 22-Sep $68.36 $10,000.00 143

    FMC FMC CORP 18-Sep $61.24 24-Sep $59.69 $10,000.00 166

    JOY JOY GLOBAL 9-Sep $59.57 22-Sep $57.50 $10,000.00 171

    LEN LENNAR 25-Jul $38.60 $5,000.00 130

    NE NOBLE CORP 18-Sep $24.63 3-Oct $20.71 $10,000.00 444

    SHORTS

    DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 22-Jan $136.17 6-Mar $143.01 28-Mar $145.35 9-Apr $146.81 $20,000.00 140

    29-Nov $161.47 28-Mar $163.79 17-Apr $164.18 18-Aug $168.64 $20,000.00 122

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 18-Jan $59.37 5-Mar $68.50 10-Apr $69.54 25-Apr $69.79 $20,000.00 301

    29-Apr $70.37 9-Jul $73.00 17-Oct $80.72 27-Nov $85.11 $20,000.00 260

    1-Jul $94.98 20-Aug $98.77 08-Sep $100.33 $15,000.00 154

    SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS 29-Jan $150.80 14-Mar $156.59 28-Mar $156.78 27-Jun 161.10 $20,000.00 128

    18-Oct $174.10 13-Feb $182.98 16-Apr $185.09 3-Jul 197.75 $20,000.00 108

    15-Aug $196.57 $5,000.00 25

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    8/16

    Where To Set GTC Limit Orders

    Ticker Company NameBuy 5000$ @

    This Value

    Level

    Sell $5000 @This Risky

    Level

    LONGS Buy WeaknessHere Sell Strength Here

    AN AUTONATION 38.31 A 53.99 Q

    CLF CLIFFS NATURAL 7.00 W 13.95 S

    COH COACH None 36.23 W

    CTSH COGNIZANT 42.03 A 47.30 M

    DE DEERE None 89.29 M

    DNR DENBURY RES None 18.64 SDO DIAMOND OFFSHORE 32.68 W 43.23 M

    ESV ENSCO PLC None 49.07 M

    FLR FLOUR CORP None 72.25 M

    FMC FMC CORP None 69.76 M

    JOY JOY GLOBAL None 64.12 M

    LEN LENNAR None 41.68 W

    NE NOBLE CORP None 27.73 M

    SHORTS Cover Short Here Add to or establish

    a short here

    DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 162.59 S 172.56 W

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 85.91 S 99.05 W

    SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS 178.73 S 199.05 W

    Subscribers shou ld enter GTC Limit Orders to add an allocation of $5000 to lon g posit ions or become less short on p rice weaknessto the Value Levels shown in the Buy @ colu mn. Subscribers shou ld enter GTC Limit Orders to reduce an allocatio n of $5000 to

    the long side or to add to the short sid e on strength to Risky Levels shown in the Sell @ c olumn. Subscribers will NOT receive anemail alert to when GTC Limit Orders are executed. Subscrib ers will on ly receive an email alert when a long or shor t posi tion i sremoved at a market level. An email alert also occurs w hen a new long or shor t is added to the model portfo lio. See the guidelinesfor Buy and Trade at the end of the newsletter.

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    9/16

    Historic Portfolio Closed Long Trades - 2014 Ticker Company Name EntryDate

    EntryPrice

    ExitDate

    ClosingPrice G/L

    SPXEntry

    SPXExit SPX G/L

    VTExce

    LONGS CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS 15-Nov-13 $21.40 14-Jan $22.30 4.2% $1,791.00 $1,822.00 1.7% 2.5%

    EBAY EBAY INC 20-Nov-13 $50.92 15-Jan $53.44 4.9% $1,790.00 $1,841.00 2.8% 2.1%

    EBAY EBAY INC 5-Nov-13 $50.92 22-Jan $59.12 16.1% $1,756.00 $1,844.00 5.0% 11.1

    AU ANGLOGOLD 3-Jan-14 $12.25 4-Feb $14.50 18.4% $1,834.00 $1,744.00 -4.9% 23.3

    HD HOME DEPOT 3-Feb-14 $75.25 12-Feb $77.22 2.6% $1,783.00 $1,824.00 2.3% 0.3%

    T AT&T 29-Jan-14 $32.40 13-Feb $33.47 3.3% $1,780.00 $1,829.00 2.8% 0.5%

    MCD MCDONALDS 11-Dec-13 $95.34 18-Feb $96.08 0.8% $1,802.00 $1,839.00 2.1% -1.3

    VZ VERIZON 3-Feb-14 $46.80 20-Feb $47.29 1.0% $1,783.00 $1,830.00 2.6% -1.6

    ROST ROSS STORES 19-Feb-14 $67.77 24-Feb $69.33 2.3% $1,839.00 $1,855.00 0.9% 1.4%

    TA TRAVEL CENTERS 27-Jan-14 $8.02 25-Feb $9.06 13.0% $1,775.00 $1,850.00 4.2% 8.7%BBBY BED BATH & BEYOND 22-Jan-14 $64.99 26-Feb $68.15 4.9% $1,841.00 $1,848.00 0.4% 4.5%

    BIG BIG LOTS 17-Jan-14 $28.32 26-Feb $29.24 3.2% $1,836.00 $1,848.00 0.7% 2.6%

    CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC 28-Jan-14 $18.27 26-Feb $19.67 7.7% $1,780.00 $1,848.00 3.8% 3.8%

    KGC KINROSE GOLD 3-Jan-14 $4.50 3-Mar $5.36 19.1% $1,833.00 $1,857.00 1.3% 17.8

    BIG BIG LOTS 10-Dec-13 $31.19 4-Mar $30.15 -3.3% $1,802.00 $1,850.00 2.7% -6.0

    BIG BIG LOTS 9-Jan-14 $31.20 4-Mar $30.15 -3.4% $1,840.00 $1,850.00 0.5% -3.9

    KO COCA COLA 15-Aug-13 $39.30 4-Mar $38.35 -2.4% $1,679.00 $1,850.00 10.2% -12.6

    KO COCA COLA 12-Dec-13 $39.23 4-Mar $38.35 -2.2% $1,781.00 $1,850.00 3.9% -6.1

    WMT WAL-MART 31-Jan-14 $73.76 13-Mar $75.89 2.9% $1,791.00 $1,870.00 4.4% -1.5

    MCD MCDONALDS 5-Dec-13 $95.34 13-Mar $98.90 3.7% $1,792.00 $1,870.00 4.4% -0.6MCD MCDONALDS 29-May-13 $99.38 14-Mar $97.50 -1.9% $1,657.00 $1,845.00 11.3% -13.2

    MCD MCDONALDS 20-Jun-13 $96.74 14-Mar $97.50 0.8% $1,624.00 $1,845.00 13.6% -12.8

    GME GAMESTOP 3-Feb-14 $33.36 17-Mar $39.50 18.4% $1,745.00 $1,856.00 6.4% 12.0

    WMT WAL-MART 16-Jan-14 $76.49 21-Mar $75.89 -0.8% $1,845.00 $1,865.00 1.1% -1.9

    CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC 3-Mar-14 $18.84 2-Apr $20.30 7.7% $1,835.00 $1,865.00 1.6% 6.1%

    CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC 11-Nov-13 $19.84 9-Apr $20.60 3.8% $1,765.00 $1,853.00 5.0% -1.2

    NFLX NETFLIX 11-Apr-14 $328.81 17-Apr $343.67 4.5% $1,820.00 $1,865.00 2.5% 2.0%

    T AT&T 7-Nov-13 $35.17 22-Apr $36.48 3.7% $1,774.00 $1,860.00 4.8% -1.1

    AAPL APPLE INC 14-Mar-14 $525.59 28-Apr $586.06 11.5% $1,840.00 $1,877.00 2.0% 9.5%

    AKA M AKAMAI Tech 28-Apr-14 $51.05 1-May $54.80 7.3% $1,855.00 $1,885.00 1.6% 5.7%

    SPLS STAPLES INC 6-Mar-14 $11.24 1-May $12.67 12.7% $1,875.00 $1,885.00 0.5% 12.2

    AKA M AKAMAI Tech 24-Apr-14 $52.98 2-May $56.52 6.7% $1,871.00 $1,883.00 0.6% 6.0%

    AKA M AKA MAI Tech 10-Apr-14 $53.10 2-May $56.24 5.9% $1,831.00 $1,883.00 2.8% 3.1%

    NFLX NETFLIX 25-Apr-14 $328.21 2-May $337.50 2.8% $1,860.00 $1,883.00 1.2% 1.6%

    T AT&T 24-Jul-13 $35.20 8-May $36.48 3.6% $1,695.00 $1,885.00 11.2% -7.6

    VZ VERIZON 15-Apr-14 $46.98 16-May $48.75 3.8% $1,820.00 $1,875.00 3.0% 0.7%

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    10/16

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    11/16

    Historic Portfolio Closed Short Trades, 2014 Ticker Company Name EntryDate

    EntryPrice

    ExitDate

    ClosingPrice G/L

    SPXEntry

    SPXExit SPX G/L

    VTExce

    SHORTS DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 26-Dec-13 $163.69 23-Jan $162.05 1.0% $1,842.00 $1,830.00 0.7% 0.4%

    SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS 26-Dec-13 $183.64 24-Jan $179.50 2.3% $1,842.00 $1,800.00 2.3% 0.0%

    SPY S&P SECTOR SPDRS 15-Nov-13 $180.12 3-Feb $176.28 2.1% $1,791.00 $1,760.00 1.7% 0.4%

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 20-Dec-13 $86.19 3-Feb $84.59 1.9% $1,820.00 $1,760.00 3.3% -1.4

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 28-Feb-14 $90.93 11-Apr $84.59 7.0% $1,867.00 $1,825.00 2.2% 4.7%

    QQQ NASDAQ 100 SHARES 12-Feb-14 $89.07 15-Apr $83.64 6.1% $1,826.00 $1,818.00 0.4% 5.7%

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    12/16

    Historic Performance

    Buy and Trade Time Frame # Longs AVG Gain /Loss SP 500 +/-

    #Shorts

    AVG Gain/Loss SP 500 +/- Portfol io

    2009 from J uly 13th 22 8.96% 12.82% -3.86% 153 0.00% -1.22% 1.22% 8.19%

    Calendar Year 2010 143 4.63% 2.59% 2.04% 175 1.04% 0.61% 0.43% 35.17%

    Calendar Year 2011 193 0.35% 0.86% -0.51% 26 -1.00% -0.58% -0.42% 1.75%

    Calendar Year 2012 113 3.50% 2.44% 1.06% 20 2.15% 0.83% 1.32% 18.43%

    Calendar Year 2013 89 2.38% 3.26% -0.88% 5 1.42% 0.55% 0.87% 9.11%

    Year To Date 2014 62 4.30% 2.60% 1.70% 6 3.39% 1.77% 1.62% 12.08%

    Since Inception 622 2.89% 2.48% 0.41% 385 0.54% -0.17% 0.70% 84.73%

    Win/Loss Record Time Frame Long

    WinnersLong

    LosersHit % Short

    WinnersShort

    LosersHit % Total

    WinnersTotal

    LosersHit %

    2009 from J uly 13th 20 2 90.91% 91 62 59.48% 111 64 63.43%

    Calendar Year 2010 112 31 78.32% 102 73 58.29% 214 104 67.30%

    Calendar Year 2011 139 54 72.02% 13 13 50.00% 152 67 69.41%

    Calendar Year 2012 94 19 83.19% 15 5 75.00% 109 24 81.95%

    Calendar Year 2013 69 20 77.53% 5 0 100.00% 74 20 78.72%

    Year To Date 2014 50 12 80.65% 6 0 100.00% 56 12 82.35%Since Inception 484 138 77.81% 232 153 60.26% 716 291 71.10%

    Since Inception on July 13, 2009 The model portfolio has a win / loss percentage of 77.81% onclosed-out longs and 60.26% on closed-out shorts. The total win / loss percentage is 71.10%. Withan assumed average investment of $120,000 we have a gain of 84.73%. On an average trade-by-trade basis we beat the S&P 500 by 0.41% on average for each long and by 0.54% on average foreach short. In 2014 we are up 12.08% with the S&P 500 up just 3.1% .

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    13/16

    What is Buy and Trade? Investors are often told that their best move is to implement a Buy and Hold strategy. With

    this mantra, investors are taught that the market will always go up over time and thus stockpositions will increase in value given a long enough time horizon.Buy and Hold has maintained its influence because performance chasing-- also referred to as

    P/E multiple expansion-- is the fundamental form of technical momentum. Because of this flawedmomentum play, equity money managers and individuals have been trapped in a strategy that buyshigh and sells low.

    Over the last decade, I have developed a strategy I call Buy and Trade that is tailor-made forvolatile markets and allows investors to move with markets rather than lose their capital when themarkets take a turn for the worse. With Buy and Trade, you make gains by capturing marketvolatility with a set of pre-determined price targets based on my proprietary market analytics.

    I chuckle at the notion that a stock will move higher if it trades above a certain level, or move

    lower if it trades below another level. Think about this for a moment: a buy-rated stock gets cheaperfundamentally on weakness and a sell-rated stock gets more overvalued on strength. The only reasonto sell a long is if it reaches your upside target or loses its buy rating. The only reason to cover a shortis if it reaches your downside target or losses its sell rating. You thus want to add to positions on longswhen they are down and add to positions on shorts on strength.

    It works like this: I assume that a stocks price is the most important element in stock selectionand in stock trading. By analyzing the past nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annualcloses--under the assumption that nine years of data is enough to assume all possible bullish orbearish eventswe can calculate the most important action prices for any stock, commodity,currency, market index or US Treasury yield.

    Using this form of analysis, over the past 36 years I have developed a trading system whichutilizes value levels, risky levels and pivots. Once you know the critical price levels for a givenstock, commodity, currency, market index or US Treasury yield, you can use GTC limit orders to buyweakness to a value level and sell strength to a risky level. In this manner, you build positions at theright price levels no matter the overall market direction.

    When I show a Value Level near the low or a Risky Level near the high, it's time to Buy andTrade. We always seek to capture the volatility in-between those critical price levels and takeadvantage of trading ranges-- while all the while being cognizant of the trend for the stocks you aretrading.

    With my proprietary action prices, you can capture a portion of the volatility as stocks move upand down. When using Value Levels, Pivots, and Risky Levels, it does not matter why you wish toown or be short a specific stock or market. Once you select your trades, simply use weakness to aValue Level as an opportunity to increase a long or to become less short and use strength to a RiskyLevel to become less long or to increase a short.

    Another key element of my strategy is a prudent usage of cash reserves as a safety buffer. Cash should be relatively low when bullish and relatively high when bearish. Keeping some cash onthe sidelines helps to lock in gains rather than losses, but you won't often get this advice from moneymanagers seeking maximum commissions.

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    14/16

    How to Use this Portfolio Methodology: The ValuTrader portfolio is based on a combination of technical analysis with

    ValuEngine's fundamentally-based quant analysis. By combining ValuEngine valuation, forecast, andratings data with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's trading expertise andproprietary market technicals, ValuTrader provides the best of both worlds so that investors fromnovice to professional may benefit from cutting-edge financial theory with human oversight.

    Publication Schedule: ValuTrader subscribers will receive an updated portfolio newsletter everyMonday. Buy/Sell alerts will be sent via email whenever a stock is added or sold from the portfolio.Please note that alerts will no t be sent when individual positions are adjusted within theportfolio.

    Portfolio Size and Allocation: The ValuTrader portfolio will typically consist of 20 equities and

    ETFs allocated between long and short positions according to ValuEngine Chief Market StrategistRichard Suttmeier's overall view of the market. Initially, capital should be allocated equally acrosspositions but with dollar-cost averaging positions may expand or contract as share prices reachcritical value or risky levels. The portfolio assumes an initial account level of $400,000 with $100,000invested in equities at $5000 in each position with a cash reserve of $300,000. Adjust your ownallocations according to your own capital levels.

    Defining Terms: A value level is a price at which investors should add to positions on share price weakness A risky level is a price at which investors should reduce holdings on share price strength. A pivot is a price that should be a magnet during the time frame specified. This is a level at

    which to consider more aggressive position adjustments.Where to Buy and Where to Sell - A Value Level is a price at which buyers should add to

    positions on market price weakness. A Risky Level is a price at which sellers should reduce holdingson market price gains. A "Pivot" is a Value Level or Risky Level that was violated in its time horizon,acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly(W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past ninecloses in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation ofall bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most importantelement of my Buy and Trade Strategy.

    Buy and Trade Guidelines: Investors should consider entering good until cancelled (GTC) ordersto adjust positions when/if share prices reach critical technical levels as indicated in the GTC orderguideline table. Otherwise, subscribers should adjust their portfolios to match the model holdings asindicated in each weekly update.

    If you have any question s, please contact me at [email protected] .

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    15/16

  • 8/11/2019 141013 Valu Trader

    16/16